FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[New Tradition]

Kudos to the Wheaton broadcast team for honestly going over the perilous situation Wheaton is in with its Pool C status. Detailed explanation of the selection process and criteria as well as distinguishing from Division I. Good reminder for the well versed and tutorial to someone newer to D3.

The Wheaton broadcast team is top notch. 

[WUPHF]

I'll give you a multiple choice answer:

A. Because I felt like it
B. Because there were 2 other WR's who were better IMO
C. Because the POW honors can only go to 1 player so I picked 1 offensive player from each (winning) team (except NPU defensive players as I didn't want to offend Sager 2 weeks in a row)
D. If you want to highlight a player from your team on here...Go for it!
E. All of the above
F. None of the above

Thanks.

[Marmac]

Kudos to the Wheaton broadcast team for honestly going over the perilous situation Wheaton is in with its Pool C status. Detailed explanation of the selection process and criteria as well as distinguishing from Division I. Good reminder for the well versed and tutorial to someone newer to D3.

What were the key points in that discussion?

1.  Pool A (Automatic Bids)-Given to conference champions
2.  Pool C (At Large Bids)- At Large Bids which covers all 6 regions-5 Pool C berths available this year
3.  Assuming that both North Central and Wheaton win out or that both Wheaton and North Central finish with identical 8-1 records, Wheaton not eligible for a Pool A Berth, as NCC won head to head.
4.  Each region will have a final ranking of teams within that region decided by a committee from that specific region
5.  Pool C Bids decided by a National Committee based on specific criteria from remaining regionally ranked teams not given an automatic bid by Pool A.
6.  One of the criteria is strength of schedule.
7. Strength of schedule is partially determined by both opponents winning percentage and the opponents opponents winning percentage (the winning percentage of the teams your opponent played).
8.  Wheaton will have a low strength of schedule in light of playing Northwestern who has a poor record and plays in a conference with a poor out of conference winning percentage.
9.  Wheaton will also have a low strength of schedule as the CCIW performed uncharacteristically poor in their non-conference games this year.  As a result, Wheaton's CCIW opponents will also have lower strength of schedule.
10.  There is no such thing as the "eye test" with regards to selection.
11.  With there being 6 regions and only 5 at large berths, Wheaton may be blocked from being considered by other teams from other regions with identical records and better strength of schedule.
12.  Where Wash U and Chicago are ranked regionally will be important for the Thunder's selection.

Wheaton will get a Pool C bid.

It's fun to overanalyze, but the Thunder will be in the playoffs.

[markerickson]

I planned to go to the NPU game, but an unexpected death in the family took priority.  At the spot people gathered after the service I logged into the game to see NPU miss a chip shot FG.  Good grief, Charlie Brown.  Then I heard Greg announce the third qtr score.  Within seconds my friend, who was driving back to Fort Wayne, texts me that the Illini won.  What a world!

[hazzben]

Very nice Pool C summary.

I like to think Wheaton will be selected, but that's maybe mostly because it's hard to imagine a team of their caliber left out. Their SOS is brutal and the WashU loss to Chicago who lost to Monmouth chain is a great piece of detail.

This just feels like a year of ensuing chaos over the final weeks. The WIAC shakeout will have major bearing. Does UWL maintain a single D3 loss? Do any strong 1 loss teams pick up another loss? Do any presumed Pool A teams drop into the Pool C discussion.

[USee]

Kudos to the Wheaton broadcast team for honestly going over the perilous situation Wheaton is in with its Pool C status. Detailed explanation of the selection process and criteria as well as distinguishing from Division I. Good reminder for the well versed and tutorial to someone newer to D3.

What were the key points in that discussion?

1.  Pool A (Automatic Bids)-Given to conference champions
2.  Pool C (At Large Bids)- At Large Bids which covers all 6 regions-5 Pool C berths available this year
3.  Assuming that both North Central and Wheaton win out or that both Wheaton and North Central finish with identical 8-1 records, Wheaton not eligible for a Pool A Berth, as NCC won head to head.
4.  Each region will have a final ranking of teams within that region decided by a committee from that specific region
5.  Pool C Bids decided by a National Committee based on specific criteria from remaining regionally ranked teams not given an automatic bid by Pool A.
6.  One of the criteria is strength of schedule.
7. Strength of schedule is partially determined by both opponents winning percentage and the opponents opponents winning percentage (the winning percentage of the teams your opponent played).
8.  Wheaton will have a low strength of schedule in light of playing Northwestern who has a poor record and plays in a conference with a poor out of conference winning percentage.
9.  Wheaton will also have a low strength of schedule as the CCIW performed uncharacteristically poor in their non-conference games this year.  As a result, Wheaton's CCIW opponents will also have lower strength of schedule.
10.  There is no such thing as the "eye test" with regards to selection.
11.  With there being 6 regions and only 5 at large berths, Wheaton may be blocked from being considered by other teams from other regions with identical records and better strength of schedule.
12.  Where Wash U and Chicago are ranked regionally will be important for the Thunder's selection.

Wheaton will get a Pool C bid.

It's fun to overanalyze, but the Thunder will be in the playoffs.

Yea, we THINK we know that, but the criteria will be decidedly against them. If we have a committee who is criteria centric, they won't be in. Common sense should prevail, but administrators, especially in this day and age, have to cover their butts. In 2019 that meant ranking a 3rd CCIW team to get NCC in. This year, that air cover will be much harder to come by because the 3rd best CCIW, WashU is going to have 3 losses, one of them to Chicago, who has a loss to Monmouth, who lost to Wartburg, who lost to Central, etc, etc.

It's easy to simply look and say "a 1 loss CCIW is always getting in" and traditionally that's been the case. However, we have the smallest number of Pool C bids ever and a new region alignment, so what's been known in past years, isn't necessarily still true. When selection Sunday comes what we do know is this: primary and secondary criteria matter. D3 poll ranking does not matter. If there are a bunch of 1-loss teams with strong SOS and RRO results (primary criteria) Wheaton is in trouble. If the 1 loss teams fall by the wayside  (either capturing Pool A or picking up a 2nd loss), Wheaton is in much better shape. By all accounts NCC got in as the last pool C in 2019 and WashU appearing in the final rankings sealed the deal. They had 3 losses that year (losing to a strong Millikin team on the road was their 3rd) so that could happen.

[USee]

One observation I have is that the officiating in D3 this year is at an all time low. I have many examples but most recently I would cite 4 roughing the passer penalties in the Wheaton v Carthage game. There were 2 called on each team. I thought 3 of the 4 (2 on Carthage 1 on Wheaton-the other 1 on Wheaton was legit) were  some of the worst calls I have seen this year. And for those that watched the NCC @ Wheaton game, that's saying something. 

[CardinalAlum]

One observation I have is that the officiating in D3 this year is at an all time low. I have many examples but most recently I would cite 4 roughing the passer penalties in the Wheaton v Carthage game. There were 2 called on each team. I thought 3 of the 4 (2 on Carthage 1 on Wheaton-the other 1 on Wheaton was legit) were  some of the worst calls I have seen this year. And for those that watched the NCC @ Wheaton game, that's saying something.

This post 100x over.  Officiating has been dreadful this year. 

[CardinalAlum]

Congratulations to Andrew Kamienski (OPOW) and Dan Gilroy (DPOW) of NCC and Caleb Grotelueschen (STPOW) of Wheaton for the CCIW weekly awards.

https://cciw.org/news/2021/10/24/north-centrals-kamienski-gilroy-wheatons-grotelueschen-named-cciw-football-student-athletes-of-the-week.aspx

[wally_wabash]

11.  With there being 6 regions and only 5 at large berths, Wheaton may be blocked from being considered by other teams from other regions with identical records and better strength of schedule.
12.  Where Wash U and Chicago are ranked regionally will be important for the Thunder's selection.

Wheaton will not be blocked.  I suspect Wheaton will be the top at-large choice from Region 5 and will be available for selection from Round 1 going forward.  There shouldn't be a scenario here where Wheaton's name never gets mentioned. 

The WashU/Chicago situation is fascinating and Wheaton fans really want to get on the Forester bandwagon pronto. 

[USee]

I think by "blocked" it means that 1 loss teams with better criteria from other regions will be at the table with the Thunder. I agree they should be the top at large team in Region 5 and at the table from the start.

[USee]

Wally, in terms of Lake Forest, I think you are saying Wheaton fans want them to win out (thereby giving Monmouth and Chicago 2nd losses and giving the Foresters the AQ) and increasing the odds WashU is ranked? But WashU will end up with 3 losses in that strategy so there is a chance none of them get ranked?

To offset the low SOS Wheaton desperately needs a win vs an RRO (Regionally Ranked Opponent). If there are 8 ranked teams in a region (we don't know yet if there are 6,7, 8 or more), Region 5 currently has the following:

North Central 7-0
Aurora 5-2 (Losses to StJu, NCC-still plays Benedictine and Lakeland)
Benedictine 6-1 (loss to Carroll still to play Aurora)
Central 7-0
Chicago 7-1(Loss to Monmouth, still plays Lake Forest)
Coe (5-2, losses to Central/Wartburg)
Lake Forest 7-0 (plays Monmouth and Chicago)
Lakeland 6-1 (loss to Benedictine, plays Aurora)
Monmouth 6-1 (loss to Wartburg, win over Chicago-still plays Lake Forest)
Wartburg 5-2 (losses to Gustavus, Central)
WashU 5-2 (losses to Wheaton, Chicago--still play NCC)
Wheaton 6-1 (loss to NCC)

That's 12. If 8 teams get ranked, 4 of these have to fall off.  Lakeland and Benedictine are likely candidates. For the last 2  it has to be 2 of the teams in the MWC (LF, Monmouth, Chicago) and/or Coe. LF is the hopeful candidate if they lose 2 down the stretch.  All of that assumes a 3 loss WashU would get ranked ahead of all the above teams which will likely have 2 losses.

Let me know if I missed something here

[kiko]

I think we will have a much clearer line of sight to potential Pool C outcomes once we've seen the first regional rankings.  Right now, not knowing how many teams will be ranked per region is a fairly big wildcard.  (And is something that really should not be a state secret more than halfway into the season, but that's a different conversation.)  It will also be helpful to get a feel for the pecking order in other regions so we understand who is likely to be in the convo earlier versus later.

I am curious as to how much having six teams at the table for discussions versus having four teams might alter the conversations and how the selections play out.  In theory, this shouldn't matter, but it is a change in the variables that are at play for this process.

[D3FLETCH]

I hope Wheaton does not get left out, but this is definitely a down year for the CCIW. Wheaton has a brutal 3 game stretch to close out the season 

[WW]

Wheaton's strongest argument for Pool C inclusion appears to be "because they're Wheaton." And that don't carry much water.

No matter. This will give us the best matchup of the tournament's first weekend, and it won't even be a tournament game: Wheaton Vs. Oshkosh in the Culver's Isthmus Bowl.