FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[bleedpurple]

Fascinating discussion for sure. It helps show some things Wheaton fans should certainly root for.  But if all plays out reasonably according to form, the bottom line is the process will be really unpredictable. The National Committee will likely be able to justify choosing Wheaton and they will likely be able to justify not choosing Wheaton. 

My very strong suspicion is that they will choose Wheaton.  Wouldn't you think that Wheaton likely being the best Pool C team in the country would be a very good tiebreaker, at least subconsciously?

[WW]

Their SOS number may be better but will their actual schedule?

Oh, h*ll no. But my understanding is they'll consider the number, not the "eye test," politicking, or third-layer analysis of who beat whom.

It is absolutely more nuanced than that, especially in football where there are only 10 games and often only one non-conference game.

Well, if nuance, preseason biases, 2019 results and historic "standing" all have bearing on their RR, Wheaton really has little to worry about.

Wheaton's resume will look a lot like North Central's resume circa 2019.  While they won the Big Doorstop, the Cardinals were by virtually all estimates the last Pool C team selected, and as Wally noted above, making choices at that point can mean splitting hairs.  Given this history, and the many unknowns around who may trip up and unexpectedly tumble into the Pool C pot, 'little to worry about' is not where I would rate that resume.

Should've used my partial sarcasm font there. I'd rather non-2021-results-specific factors have no bearing on 2021 rankings, but if they do, Chicago should be busy reminding folks that they were a Big 10 powerhouse back in the 1930s.

Re the SOS discussion, by my math a 9-1 Chicago would have between a .025ish (should Northwestern win out) to more than .050ish (should Northwestern lose out) advantage in SOS over Wheaton. Kind of hard to ignore, even on the low end.

[Gregory Sager]

Should've used my partial sarcasm font there. I'd rather non-2021-results-specific factors have no bearing on 2021 rankings, but if they do, Chicago should be busy reminding folks that they were a Big 10 powerhouse back in the 1930s.

But ... but ... but ... Jay Berwanger!

[wally_wabash]

Should've used my partial sarcasm font there. I'd rather non-2021-results-specific factors have no bearing on 2021 rankings, but if they do, Chicago should be busy reminding folks that they were a Big 10 powerhouse back in the 1930s.

Re the SOS discussion, by my math a 9-1 Chicago would have between a .025ish (should Northwestern win out) to more than .050ish (should Northwestern lose out) advantage in SOS over Wheaton. Kind of hard to ignore, even on the low end.

FWIW, 0.025 is about where I draw meaningful differences between SOS figures.  Other people who actually get to decide who plays in the tournament may handle that data differently.     

[WW]

Should've used my partial sarcasm font there. I'd rather non-2021-results-specific factors have no bearing on 2021 rankings, but if they do, Chicago should be busy reminding folks that they were a Big 10 powerhouse back in the 1930s.

But ... but ... but ... Jay Berwanger!

I know, right? Chicago really has little to worry about.

[USee]

I don't know where the SOS will settle out but that seems to be where WW is pinning his hopes that Chicago ends up above Wheaton in the Regional Rankings (should Chicago's SOS be higher than Wheatons, which is far from certain). The criteria is pretty clear and emphasizing SOS while dismissing other known nuances in the criteria as "eye test" seems more hopeful than realistic. I (and most of the rest of D3) will be shocked if Wheaton isn't the #1 pool C team in the region and the criteria supports it.

I am not at all worried about the regional rankings but I am deeply concerned about selection Sunday and the criteria that will bear out in the process. Pat always says having only 10 games as data points makes this process a lot harder to sort out accurately. Seems like they got it right in 2019 with North Central.  As Wally has said, we will know a lot more after Saturday.

[hickory_cornhusker]

Their SOS number may be better but will their actual schedule?

Oh, h*ll no. But my understanding is they'll consider the number, not the "eye test," politicking, or third-layer analysis of who beat whom.

It is absolutely more nuanced than that, especially in football where there are only 10 games and often only one non-conference game.

Well, if nuance, preseason biases, 2019 results and historic "standing" all have bearing on their RR, Wheaton really has little to worry about.

Wheaton's resume will look a lot like North Central's resume circa 2019.  While they won the Big Doorstop, the Cardinals were by virtually all estimates the last Pool C team selected, and as Wally noted above, making choices at that point can mean splitting hairs.  Given this history, and the many unknowns around who may trip up and unexpectedly tumble into the Pool C pot, 'little to worry about' is not where I would rate that resume.

Should've used my partial sarcasm font there. I'd rather non-2021-results-specific factors have no bearing on 2021 rankings, but if they do, Chicago should be busy reminding folks that they were a Big 10 powerhouse back in the 1930s.

Re the SOS discussion, by my math a 9-1 Chicago would have between a .025ish (should Northwestern win out) to more than .050ish (should Northwestern lose out) advantage in SOS over Wheaton. Kind of hard to ignore, even on the low end.

How does WashU losing games down the stretch affect things? The Bears picking up losses will drag Chicago's SOS down but since they will be to CCIW opponents, it will have no affect on Wheaton's SOS.

[WW]

I don't know where the SOS will settle out but that seems to be where WW is pinning his hopes that Chicago ends up above Wheaton in the Regional Rankings (should Chicago's SOS be higher than Wheatons, which is far from certain). The criteria is pretty clear and emphasizing SOS while dismissing other known nuances in the criteria as "eye test" seems more hopeful than realistic. I (and most of the rest of D3) will be shocked if Wheaton isn't the #1 pool C team in the region and the criteria supports it.

I am not at all worried about the regional rankings but I am deeply concerned about selection Sunday and the criteria that will bear out in the process. Pat always says having only 10 games as data points makes this process a lot harder to sort out accurately. Seems like they got it right in 2019 with North Central.  As Wally has said, we will know a lot more after Saturday.

Actually, that is certain as far as I can tell. There is no remaining combination of outcomes that can elevate Wheaton's SOS equal to or past Chicago's. While it's possible that the difference could be negligible (as little as .005), that would require a few unlikely game outcomes, namely 2-5 Northwestern winning out, and 5-2 WUSTL losing out. A more likely scenario, in which WUSTL finishes 7-3 and NW finishes at 4-6, would leave the differential at around .035. In other words, considerable, and in requirement of lots of nuance to make Wheaton the #1 Pool C team in Region 5.

A more hopeful path for Wheaton could be a Lake Forest win at Monmouth Saturday. That would make Monmouth 8-2. Then LF vs Chicago in the season ender either results in a 3-way tie (have no idea how they'd break that) for the Pool A bid or an outright Lake Forest Pool A bid and a 8-2 Chicago team. If U of C is granted Pool A entry in the 3-way scenario, neither Monmouth at 8-2 or LF (with a comparable SOS to Wheaton on the basis of having played 2-5 Wiscosnin Lutheran in their NC game) would be a pool C threat to Wheaton.

Hickory, I think you're correct. WUSTL losing games hurts Chicago, but is basically a net-zero for Wheaton, since a WUSTL loss is a win for somebody else they've played.

[WUPHF]

And Wheaton's prospects if Washington University wins out? Just kidding.

[kiko]

And Wheaton's prospects if Washington University wins out? Just kidding.

I know you were kidding, but I'll answer this.  In that scenario, Pool C becomes North Central's problem and not Wheaton's giving the Wheaties' 40-10 mauling of the Bears in St. Louis a few weeks back.

The main reason I mention this is that I scream at my screen when I hear the NCC PBP broadcaster make assumptions about how many home games (and therefore broadcasts) the Cardinals will have this year beyond the regular season.  (And to be clear, this has been just KJ and not both gents.)  To a greater extent than in the past, the NCC broadcast team team has to walk a delicate balance between what is likely and what is possible, particularly since Wheaton was the first conference opponent.  I appreciate that they don't try to pretend that Carroll, Elmhurst, etc. are significant tests for the Redbirds.  But (1) a slip against what is a decent-to-good Wash U team would change the calculus in a heartbeat, and (2) I think the Cardinals have seen in the past that the playoffs get a lot harder very quickly after the first round.  (Case in point - 2019 may have ended very differently if Mount Union's final pass in their second round matchup is complete rather than incomplete.) 

North Central's depth and overall talent level is stronger than it has ever been.  But nobody associated with the Cardinal program should assume that a deep run in 2019 means this is easy to do or a given in 2021.   There's business to attend to still in the regular season, particularly in two weeks.  And if that hurdle is cleared, there is business to take care of in the early rounds in order to make December games happen.

[kiko]

For those who don't wander over to the main site:

https://d3football.com/columns/features/2021/north-central-d-time-to-shine

[USee]

I don't know where the SOS will settle out but that seems to be where WW is pinning his hopes that Chicago ends up above Wheaton in the Regional Rankings (should Chicago's SOS be higher than Wheatons, which is far from certain). The criteria is pretty clear and emphasizing SOS while dismissing other known nuances in the criteria as "eye test" seems more hopeful than realistic. I (and most of the rest of D3) will be shocked if Wheaton isn't the #1 pool C team in the region and the criteria supports it.

I am not at all worried about the regional rankings but I am deeply concerned about selection Sunday and the criteria that will bear out in the process. Pat always says having only 10 games as data points makes this process a lot harder to sort out accurately. Seems like they got it right in 2019 with North Central.  As Wally has said, we will know a lot more after Saturday.

Actually, that is certain as far as I can tell. There is no remaining combination of outcomes that can elevate Wheaton's SOS equal to or past Chicago's. While it's possible that the difference could be negligible (as little as .005), that would require a few unlikely game outcomes, namely 2-5 Northwestern winning out, and 5-2 WUSTL losing out. A more likely scenario, in which WUSTL finishes 7-3 and NW finishes at 4-6, would leave the differential at around .035. In other words, considerable, and in requirement of lots of nuance to make Wheaton the #1 Pool C team in Region 5.

A more hopeful path for Wheaton could be a Lake Forest win at Monmouth Saturday. That would make Monmouth 8-2. Then LF vs Chicago in the season ender either results in a 3-way tie (have no idea how they'd break that) for the Pool A bid or an outright Lake Forest Pool A bid and a 8-2 Chicago team. If U of C is granted Pool A entry in the 3-way scenario, neither Monmouth at 8-2 or LF (with a comparable SOS to Wheaton on the basis of having played 2-5 Wiscosnin Lutheran in their NC game) would be a pool C threat to Wheaton.

Hickory, I think you're correct. WUSTL losing games hurts Chicago, but is basically a net-zero for Wheaton, since a WUSTL loss is a win for somebody else they've played.

How is it certain? Wheaton is currently .561 and Chicago is .515 so Wheaton is .46 ahead. I know Wheaton's SOS will fall precipitously as they play Elmhurst, IWU and Millkin. But Chicago plays LF (which will boost) and prior to that 2-5 Grinnell and 2-5 Lawrence. Both those teams will lower Chicago's SOS.

The other major flaw in your thinking is you seem to assume SOS is 90% of the deal and the other criteria which you have grouped into the "nuance" bucket, are somehow secondary. That's simply not how it works as I understand it. RRO and how it gets applied is pretty certain and it's real. Chicago is at a sizable disadvantage to Wheaton in that regard. Combine all that with the fact that the regional committees can (and do) apply criteria in different ways and you will find anomalies every year in the regional rankings. That's why a 3 loss WashU got ranked in 2019 when there were lots of 2 loss teams to choose from. Plenty of examples in the former west and east rankings that are similar to this. The regional committees have to rank their teams in a way that gives them the best chance to get an at large bid for their teams.

[wally_wabash]

And Wheaton's prospects if Washington University wins out? Just kidding.

I know you were kidding, but I'll answer this.  In that scenario, Pool C becomes North Central's problem and not Wheaton's giving the Wheaties' 40-10 mauling of the Bears in St. Louis a few weeks back.

The main reason I mention this is that I scream at my screen when I hear the NCC PBP broadcaster make assumptions about how many home games (and therefore broadcasts) the Cardinals will have this year beyond the regular season.  (And to be clear, this has been just KJ and not both gents.)  To a greater extent than in the past, the NCC broadcast team team has to walk a delicate balance between what is likely and what is possible, particularly since Wheaton was the first conference opponent.  I appreciate that they don't try to pretend that Carroll, Elmhurst, etc. are significant tests for the Redbirds.  But (1) a slip against what is a decent-to-good Wash U team would change the calculus in a heartbeat, and (2) I think the Cardinals have seen in the past that the playoffs get a lot harder very quickly after the first round.  (Case in point - 2019 may have ended very differently if Mount Union's final pass in their second round matchup is complete rather than incomplete.) 

North Central's depth and overall talent level is stronger than it has ever been.  But nobody associated with the Cardinal program should assume that a deep run in 2019 means this is easy to do or a given in 2021.   There's business to attend to still in the regular season, particularly in two weeks.  And if that hurdle is cleared, there is business to take care of in the early rounds in order to make December games happen.

North Central would be a slam dunk Pool C invitee.  SOS well clear of .500, 2-1 vs. RRO.  They'd lose the home games they had otherwise earned with the 2019 tournament sweep, but they'd have less to worry about in the at-large pool than they did in 2019.   

[USee]

And Wheaton's prospects if Washington University wins out? Just kidding.

as Kiko says, if somehow the Bears pull off a miracle when they play NCC, the tiebreaker among 3 teams is point differential among the tied teams. So unless WashU beats NCC by 46 pts, Wheaton would be the AQ and NCC would be in Pool C. Believe me, the Thunder would love to have this year's Pool C quagmire offloaded to Naperville.

[WUPHF]

I was kidding, though the feedback was interesting nonetheless so thanks guys!