FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[WW]

I don't know where the SOS will settle out but that seems to be where WW is pinning his hopes that Chicago ends up above Wheaton in the Regional Rankings (should Chicago's SOS be higher than Wheatons, which is far from certain). The criteria is pretty clear and emphasizing SOS while dismissing other known nuances in the criteria as "eye test" seems more hopeful than realistic. I (and most of the rest of D3) will be shocked if Wheaton isn't the #1 pool C team in the region and the criteria supports it.

I am not at all worried about the regional rankings but I am deeply concerned about selection Sunday and the criteria that will bear out in the process. Pat always says having only 10 games as data points makes this process a lot harder to sort out accurately. Seems like they got it right in 2019 with North Central.  As Wally has said, we will know a lot more after Saturday.

Actually, that is certain as far as I can tell. There is no remaining combination of outcomes that can elevate Wheaton's SOS equal to or past Chicago's. While it's possible that the difference could be negligible (as little as .005), that would require a few unlikely game outcomes, namely 2-5 Northwestern winning out, and 5-2 WUSTL losing out. A more likely scenario, in which WUSTL finishes 7-3 and NW finishes at 4-6, would leave the differential at around .035. In other words, considerable, and in requirement of lots of nuance to make Wheaton the #1 Pool C team in Region 5.

A more hopeful path for Wheaton could be a Lake Forest win at Monmouth Saturday. That would make Monmouth 8-2. Then LF vs Chicago in the season ender either results in a 3-way tie (have no idea how they'd break that) for the Pool A bid or an outright Lake Forest Pool A bid and a 8-2 Chicago team. If U of C is granted Pool A entry in the 3-way scenario, neither Monmouth at 8-2 or LF (with a comparable SOS to Wheaton on the basis of having played 2-5 Wiscosnin Lutheran in their NC game) would be a pool C threat to Wheaton.

Hickory, I think you're correct. WUSTL losing games hurts Chicago, but is basically a net-zero for Wheaton, since a WUSTL loss is a win for somebody else they've played.

How is it certain? Wheaton is currently .561 and Chicago is .515 so Wheaton is .46 ahead. I know Wheaton's SOS will fall precipitously as they play Elmhurst, IWU and Millkin. But Chicago plays LF (which will boost) and prior to that 2-5 Grinnell and 2-5 Lawrence. Both those teams will lower Chicago's SOS.

The other major flaw in your thinking is you seem to assume SOS is 90% of the deal and the other criteria which you have grouped into the "nuance" bucket, are somehow secondary. That's simply not how it works as I understand it. RRO and how it gets applied is pretty certain and it's real. Chicago is at a sizable disadvantage to Wheaton in that regard. Combine all that with the fact that the regional committees can (and do) apply criteria in different ways and you will find anomalies every year in the regional rankings. That's why a 3 loss WashU got ranked in 2019 when there were lots of 2 loss teams to choose from. Plenty of examples in the former west and east rankings that are similar to this. The regional committees have to rank their teams in a way that gives them the best chance to get an at large bid for their teams.

It's certain because they play in nearly mirror universes of each other with identical conference records (which would be the only scenario in which this conversation is relevant) in 10-team leagues in which you've played 9 conference games. Every week, 5 teams win, 5 teams lose. That's fact.

The difference that can't be overcome lies in non-conference play. The first tweak that favors the MWC representative by .005 or so is MWC's 4-5 record in non-conference play (Knox's opponent COVID-cancelled, thus only 9 games). The CCIW was 4-6. Knox might not be very good, but Chicago's win over them is gonna count just a little bit better than Wheaton's win over the comparably placed CCIW opponent. 

Even if we don't consider that as a variable, the only remaining variable is the record of the N-C opponent you beat. For Chicago, WUSTL is 5-2, on a likely path to 7-3. For Wheaton, best Northwestern can do is 5-5. They're 2-5 now so I don't fully expect that but it is the UMAC. Even if they do, they'll leave a number gap that will get attention.

As for SOS being 90% of the deal, I don't consider that the case at all, but it is hard data, as is RRO. But RRO doesn't look like a differentiator here. The only certain RRO either team has faced is NCC, which beat Wheaton by 13. If a loss by 13 should be counted in Wheaton's favor, well, that's nuance. The other common denominator is Wash U which could be an RRO. Wheaton beat them by more than Chicago did, I'll give you that. At this point, it's possible Lake Forest and/or Monmouth become RRO. That's a consideration that likely would only favor Chicago. Bottom line, I don't see how RRO tips back the scales of a significant, as measured, SOS advantage.

If you got something deeper than that as for nuance, I'm coming at you with Jay Berwanger.

Re your 2019 WashU observation, they benefited from a non-conference opponent that finished 6-3 and from a conference slate that went 6-4 in N-C play. You know, SOS...

[hazzben]

SOS, RRO (not just the number, but the who and how) and Common Opponents are all primary criteria. All have subjective elements. A WIAC team with a SOS of .535 and an CCIW team with a .535 are not created equal.

It seems that in your mind if a category has hard numbers, it matters more. But the BCS formula back in the day was all hard numbers, and also riddled with problems.

The system isn't perfect, but it works more often than it fails. Case in point, if both Wheaton and Chicago are 0-1 v. RRO, it will be in Wheaton's favor. As will common opponents, close win v. blowout win. None of that is guaranteed at this point. And we've noted that Wheaton isn't a lock for an Pool C when it gets to the national committee. But as it stands now, they will likely be the top Pool C in Region 5, and it passes both the criteria test and the eye/sniff test.

[D3FLETCH]

How could Wheaton get left out? They had that signature win against Carroll. Wheaton would lose 3 games in WIAC this year.

[Stagg Again!!]

How could Wheaton get left out? They had that signature win against Carroll. Wheaton would lose 3 games in WIAC this year.

Fletch.  Fletch.  Fletch.  Let me start by saying that I support a completely different team in the CCIW (Ahem... Cardinal Pride!).  I had the chance to watch the best of the WIAC tangle with the #2 team in the CCIW in the 2019 Natty and UWW didn't look so good that night at Woodforest Bank Stadium.  I am certainly aware that 12/20/19 is more than a lifetime ago for all of us (thank you COVID), but I did ALSO see NCC defeat Wheaton by 13 on 9/18/21 and Carthage by 51 on 10/9/21.  I only mention the Carthage game because UWW had defeated the Redmen by 39 pts on 9/4.  Now, I'm absolutely no fan of circular math (been burned by it way too many times), but I will tell you that NCC is a very good team this year... perhaps even better than they were in 2019 (despite the loss of #9).  The Crusaders fought the Cardinals down to the wire this year and earned a LOT of respect from the NCC faithful by how they handled themselves on the field during and AFTER the game.  All of this said, I am not buying that WC would have three losses in the WIAC.  Hell, I don't think they'd have more losses than they do now.  I have NO idea if Wheaton will make the playoffs due to the limited number of at-large slots, but I will tell you that WC is certainly one of the five best teams in the country this year and deserve to make the field of 32. 

OK, that is absolutely the last time I am coming to the defense of the Crusaders this year or else I'll have USee inviting me out for drinks and dinner!! 

Oh, one more thing... before my WIAC and UWW friends think that I am disrespecting the league and team... not true.  I do believe that the WIAC, as a whole, is the strongest conference top to bottom this year.  I just wouldn't want you to underestimate how strong the top two teams in the CCIW are in this 2021 campaign!!

[Stagg Again!!]

How could Wheaton get left out? They had that signature win against Carroll. Wheaton would lose 3 games in WIAC this year.

Fletch.  Fletch.  Fletch.  Let me start by saying that I support a completely different team in the CCIW (Ahem... Cardinal Pride!).  I had the chance to watch the best of the WIAC tangle with the #2 team in the CCIW in the 2019 Natty and UWW didn't look so good that night at Woodforest Bank Stadium.  I am certainly aware that 12/20/19 is more than a lifetime ago for all of us (thank you COVID), but I did ALSO see NCC defeat Wheaton by 13 on 9/18/21 and Carthage by 51 on 10/9/21.  I only mention the Carthage game because UWW had defeated the Redmen by 39 pts on 9/4.  Now, I'm absolutely no fan of circular math (been burned by it way too many times), but I will tell you that NCC is a very good team this year... perhaps even better than they were in 2019 (despite the loss of #9).  The Crusaders fought the Cardinals down to the wire this year and earned a LOT of respect from the NCC faithful by how they handled themselves on the field during and AFTER the game.  All of this said, I am not buying that WC would have three losses in the WIAC.  Hell, I don't think they'd have more losses than they do now.  I have NO idea if Wheaton will make the playoffs due to the limited number of at-large slots, but I will tell you that WC is certainly one of the five best teams in the country this year and deserve to make the field of 32. 

OK, that is absolutely the last time I am coming to the defense of the Crusaders this year or else I'll have USee inviting me out for drinks and dinner!! 

Oh, one more thing... before my WIAC and UWW friends think that I am disrespecting the league and team... not true.  I do believe that the WIAC, as a whole, is the strongest conference top to bottom this year.  I just wouldn't want you to underestimate how strong the top two teams in the CCIW are in this 2021 campaign!!

Quick follow up... perhaps we have some Carthage and Elmhurst fans who could make some comments about what they saw in UWW and UWRF in head to head games this fall.

[TrueGreen]

Any Thoughts about this w-end?

Carroll @ WashU
NP @ IWU
Augie @ Carthage
Wheaton @ Elmhurst
NCC @ Milikin

NP @ IWU & Augie @ Carthage are the only competitive games. Home teams have the advantage? The Augie offense (9th in scoring in league games) and Carthage (10 in def scoring in league play) is a match up to watch!!!

NP win would be crushing for the Titans. I don't like the fact that the viking offense seems to be heating up vs the IWU defense. Another match up to watch.

[USee]

HansenRatings has the following:

Augie @ Carthage -11.6
North Park @ IWU -7.6
Carroll @ WashU -20.6
Wheaton @ Elmhurst +48.6
NCC @ Millikin +58.5

[Gregory Sager]

HansenRatings has the following:

Augie @ Carthage -11.6
North Park @ IWU -7.6
Carroll @ WashU -20.6
Wheaton @ Elmhurst +48.6
NCC @ Millikin +58.5

Those seem about right to me. I like those spreads better than what Ken Massey's HAL9000 is spitting out:

Carthage 34, Augustana 27 (CC 66%, AC 34%)
Illinois Wesleyan 31, North Park 24 (IWU 72%, NPU 28%)
Wash U 35, Carroll 20 (WU 84%, CU 16%)
Wheaton 42, Elmhurst 10 (WC 99%, EU 1%)
North Central 45, Millikin 10 (NCC 98%, MU 2%)

I think that Ken's algorithm lands way too light on the scoring margins in the three lopsided contests, and, while I could see Augie keeping Carthage close, I don't see Augie scoring 27 points -- not even against Carthage's leaky defense.

[CardinalAlum]

Any Thoughts about this w-end?

Carroll @ WashU
NP @ IWU
Augie @ Carthage
Wheaton @ Elmhurst
NCC @ Milikin

NP @ IWU & Augie @ Carthage are the only competitive games. Home teams have the advantage? The Augie offense (9th in scoring in league games) and Carthage (10 in def scoring in league play) is a match up to watch!!!

NP win would be crushing for the Titans. I don't like the fact that the viking offense seems to be heating up vs the IWU defense. Another match up to watch.

Pretty cool for NP and how this has progressed for them!

[TrueGreen]

HansenRatings has the following:

Augie @ Carthage -11.6
North Park @ IWU -7.6
Carroll @ WashU -20.6
Wheaton @ Elmhurst +48.6
NCC @ Millikin +58.5

Those seem about right to me. I like those spreads better than what Ken Massey's HAL9000 is spitting out:

Carthage 34, Augustana 27 (CC 66%, AC 34%)
Illinois Wesleyan 31, North Park 24 (IWU 72%, NPU 28%)
Wash U 35, Carroll 20 (WU 84%, CU 16%)
Wheaton 42, Elmhurst 10 (WC 99%, EU 1%)
North Central 45, Millikin 10 (NCC 98%, MU 2%)

I think that Ken's algorithm lands way too light on the scoring margins in the three lopsided contests, and, while I could see Augie keeping Carthage close, I don't see Augie scoring 27 points -- not even against Carthage's leaky defense.

Do you like the point totals for the IWU/NP game? I think they are pretty spot on.

Totally agree with your Augie comment! AND I don't think Millikin will hold NCC to the "second lowest point total this season", so they will score at least 56!!!

[Gregory Sager]

Any Thoughts about this w-end?

Carroll @ WashU
NP @ IWU
Augie @ Carthage
Wheaton @ Elmhurst
NCC @ Milikin

NP @ IWU & Augie @ Carthage are the only competitive games. Home teams have the advantage? The Augie offense (9th in scoring in league games) and Carthage (10 in def scoring in league play) is a match up to watch!!!

NP win would be crushing for the Titans. I don't like the fact that the viking offense seems to be heating up vs the IWU defense. Another match up to watch.

Pretty cool for NP and how this has progressed for them!

It'd be much cooler for NPU if the Vikings managed to win on Saturday. They haven't won three CCIW games in a season since Mike Conway debuted as NPU head coach with that breakthrough campaign eight years ago (I can't believe it's been that long since T.D. Conway hit John Barnabee with that touchdown pass late in the fourth quarter to beat Carthage and snap that ugly decade-plus CCIW losing streak, still one of my three or four favorite calls I've ever had the privilege to make on the air). What's more, the last time that the Vikings won three CCIW games in a row Jimmy Carter was in the White House, Pope John Paul II paid a visit to Chicago, and "My Sharona" by the Knack was the #1 hit in America.

[CardinalAlum]

I'll ring up 'My Sharona' tomorrow if the Vikings pull that off!

[bleedpurple]

How could Wheaton get left out? They had that signature win against Carroll. Wheaton would lose 3 games in WIAC this year.

Fletch.  Fletch.  Fletch.  Let me start by saying that I support a completely different team in the CCIW (Ahem... Cardinal Pride!).  I had the chance to watch the best of the WIAC tangle with the #2 team in the CCIW in the 2019 Natty and UWW didn't look so good that night at Woodforest Bank Stadium.  I am certainly aware that 12/20/19 is more than a lifetime ago for all of us (thank you COVID), but I did ALSO see NCC defeat Wheaton by 13 on 9/18/21 and Carthage by 51 on 10/9/21. I only mention the Carthage game because UWW had defeated the Redmen by 39 pts on 9/4.  Now, I'm absolutely no fan of circular math (been burned by it way too many times), but I will tell you that NCC is a very good team this year... perhaps even better than they were in 2019 (despite the loss of #9).  The Crusaders fought the Cardinals down to the wire this year and earned a LOT of respect from the NCC faithful by how they handled themselves on the field during and AFTER the game.  All of this said, I am not buying that WC would have three losses in the WIAC.  Hell, I don't think they'd have more losses than they do now.  I have NO idea if Wheaton will make the playoffs due to the limited number of at-large slots, but I will tell you that WC is certainly one of the five best teams in the country this year and deserve to make the field of 32. 

OK, that is absolutely the last time I am coming to the defense of the Crusaders this year or else I'll have USee inviting me out for drinks and dinner!! 

Oh, one more thing... before my WIAC and UWW friends think that I am disrespecting the league and team... not true.  I do believe that the WIAC, as a whole, is the strongest conference top to bottom this year.  I just wouldn't want you to underestimate how strong the top two teams in the CCIW are in this 2021 campaign!!

First of all, I don't think you are disrespecting UW-W or the WIAC. So let's get that out of the way. I think you have opinions, which you are completely entitled to. Regarding UW-W,  your opinions are understandable, but they are wrong.

1. If you think the UW-W 2021 team resembles the 2019 team, you are in for a shock. I pray for the opportunity to show you in person.
2. To compare the UW-W/Carthage score with the NCC/Carthage score and imply that they are anything other than equal is either disingenuous or ignorant.  You conveniently left out the fact that UW-W led 41-0 at halftime and could have named the score. I would submit we learn nothing about the comparative strengths of NCC and UW-W based on that result.

You have every right to form opinions on both outdated and incomplete information if you want. To a degree I suppose we all do that. But the truth is we won't know which team is better in 2021 for a bit yet.

[wally_wabash]

Any Thoughts about this w-end?

Carroll @ WashU
NP @ IWU
Augie @ Carthage
Wheaton @ Elmhurst
NCC @ Milikin

NP @ IWU & Augie @ Carthage are the only competitive games. Home teams have the advantage? The Augie offense (9th in scoring in league games) and Carthage (10 in def scoring in league play) is a match up to watch!!!

NP win would be crushing for the Titans. I don't like the fact that the viking offense seems to be heating up vs the IWU defense. Another match up to watch.

Pretty cool for NP and how this has progressed for them!

It'd be much cooler for NPU if the Vikings managed to win on Saturday. They haven't won three CCIW games in a season since Mike Conway debuted as NPU head coach with that breakthrough campaign eight years ago (I can't believe it's been that long since T.D. Conway hit John Barnabee with that touchdown pass late in the fourth quarter to beat Carthage and snap that ugly decade-plus CCIW losing streak, still one of my three or four favorite calls I've ever had the privilege to make on the air). What's more, the last time that the Vikings won three CCIW games in a row Jimmy Carter was in the White House, Pope John Paul II paid a visit to Chicago, and "My Sharona" by the Knack was the #1 hit in America.

These lists are not complete without including the price of a postage stamp. 

15 cents.  Carry on.   

[Gregory Sager]

2. To compare the UW-W/Carthage score with the NCC/Carthage score and imply that they are anything other than equal is either disingenuous or ignorant.  You conveniently left out the fact that UW-W led 41-0 at halftime and could have named the score. I would submit we learn nothing about the comparative strengths of NCC and UW-W based on that result.

I agree with this. I'm always a bit amused when people belabor the point of scoring margins when comparing massacres of the same victim. Does it matter if the monkey you stomped is so totally pulped that you can't even recognize that it used to be a monkey, as opposed to being stomped into a bloody mess that still retains a vague semblance of former primatehood? If you're going to start splitting hairs about comparative scoring margins in massive blowouts, then, as bleedpurple implied, you're also going to have to get into the weeds regarding when each coach took out his starters, when the last pass was thrown, when the coaches respectively told their backup QBs to run down the play clock, etc.

Of course, if you score four touchdowns in the fourth quarter to turn a ten-point lead into a 38-point lead, then that's a horse of a different color ... or a capuchin of a different blood type.

It'd be much cooler for NPU if the Vikings managed to win on Saturday. They haven't won three CCIW games in a season since Mike Conway debuted as NPU head coach with that breakthrough campaign eight years ago (I can't believe it's been that long since T.D. Conway hit John Barnabee with that touchdown pass late in the fourth quarter to beat Carthage and snap that ugly decade-plus CCIW losing streak, still one of my three or four favorite calls I've ever had the privilege to make on the air). What's more, the last time that the Vikings won three CCIW games in a row Jimmy Carter was in the White House, Pope John Paul II paid a visit to Chicago, and "My Sharona" by the Knack was the #1 hit in America.

These lists are not complete without including the price of a postage stamp. 

15 cents.  Carry on.   

Always observe the rule of three.