FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[blue_jays]

I don't know where the SOS will settle out but that seems to be where WW is pinning his hopes that Chicago ends up above Wheaton in the Regional Rankings (should Chicago's SOS be higher than Wheatons, which is far from certain). The criteria is pretty clear and emphasizing SOS while dismissing other known nuances in the criteria as "eye test" seems more hopeful than realistic. I (and most of the rest of D3) will be shocked if Wheaton isn't the #1 pool C team in the region and the criteria supports it.

I am not at all worried about the regional rankings but I am deeply concerned about selection Sunday and the criteria that will bear out in the process. Pat always says having only 10 games as data points makes this process a lot harder to sort out accurately. Seems like they got it right in 2019 with North Central.  As Wally has said, we will know a lot more after Saturday.

Actually, that is certain as far as I can tell. There is no remaining combination of outcomes that can elevate Wheaton's SOS equal to or past Chicago's. While it's possible that the difference could be negligible (as little as .005), that would require a few unlikely game outcomes, namely 2-5 Northwestern winning out, and 5-2 WUSTL losing out. A more likely scenario, in which WUSTL finishes 7-3 and NW finishes at 4-6, would leave the differential at around .035. In other words, considerable, and in requirement of lots of nuance to make Wheaton the #1 Pool C team in Region 5.

A more hopeful path for Wheaton could be a Lake Forest win at Monmouth Saturday. That would make Monmouth 8-2. Then LF vs Chicago in the season ender either results in a 3-way tie (have no idea how they'd break that) for the Pool A bid or an outright Lake Forest Pool A bid and a 8-2 Chicago team. If U of C is granted Pool A entry in the 3-way scenario, neither Monmouth at 8-2 or LF (with a comparable SOS to Wheaton on the basis of having played 2-5 Wiscosnin Lutheran in their NC game) would be a pool C threat to Wheaton.

Hickory, I think you're correct. WUSTL losing games hurts Chicago, but is basically a net-zero for Wheaton, since a WUSTL loss is a win for somebody else they've played.

This looks highly likely now. Looks very possible for a 3-way tie in the MWC. I'd be curious.....if Chicago beats LF in a close one, could Chicago and LF both get in?

The tie breaker for a three way tie is number of quarters led. If I were a betting man, I'd put $$$ on Chicago beating LF but LF still winning the conference. LF just needs to be ahead for one quarter to win the conference title based on quarters led.

In this scenario, does 9-1 Chicago make the playoffs w wins over Wash U and LF?

Doubtful since Wheaton will likely have to get off the board first, and everything will depend on Game 10 upsets nationwide. It would be fun to have the Maroons in the field though.

[hazzben]

I don't know where the SOS will settle out but that seems to be where WW is pinning his hopes that Chicago ends up above Wheaton in the Regional Rankings (should Chicago's SOS be higher than Wheatons, which is far from certain). The criteria is pretty clear and emphasizing SOS while dismissing other known nuances in the criteria as "eye test" seems more hopeful than realistic. I (and most of the rest of D3) will be shocked if Wheaton isn't the #1 pool C team in the region and the criteria supports it.

I am not at all worried about the regional rankings but I am deeply concerned about selection Sunday and the criteria that will bear out in the process. Pat always says having only 10 games as data points makes this process a lot harder to sort out accurately. Seems like they got it right in 2019 with North Central.  As Wally has said, we will know a lot more after Saturday.

Actually, that is certain as far as I can tell. There is no remaining combination of outcomes that can elevate Wheaton's SOS equal to or past Chicago's. While it's possible that the difference could be negligible (as little as .005), that would require a few unlikely game outcomes, namely 2-5 Northwestern winning out, and 5-2 WUSTL losing out. A more likely scenario, in which WUSTL finishes 7-3 and NW finishes at 4-6, would leave the differential at around .035. In other words, considerable, and in requirement of lots of nuance to make Wheaton the #1 Pool C team in Region 5.

A more hopeful path for Wheaton could be a Lake Forest win at Monmouth Saturday. That would make Monmouth 8-2. Then LF vs Chicago in the season ender either results in a 3-way tie (have no idea how they'd break that) for the Pool A bid or an outright Lake Forest Pool A bid and a 8-2 Chicago team. If U of C is granted Pool A entry in the 3-way scenario, neither Monmouth at 8-2 or LF (with a comparable SOS to Wheaton on the basis of having played 2-5 Wiscosnin Lutheran in their NC game) would be a pool C threat to Wheaton.

Hickory, I think you're correct. WUSTL losing games hurts Chicago, but is basically a net-zero for Wheaton, since a WUSTL loss is a win for somebody else they've played.

This looks highly likely now. Looks very possible for a 3-way tie in the MWC. I'd be curious.....if Chicago beats LF in a close one, could Chicago and LF both get in?

The tie breaker for a three way tie is number of quarters led. If I were a betting man, I'd put $$$ on Chicago beating LF but LF still winning the conference. LF just needs to be ahead for one quarter to win the conference title based on quarters led.

In this scenario, does 9-1 Chicago make the playoffs w wins over Wash U and LF?

TBH, based on Saturday's results, my assumption is that LF will be the clear favorites, albeit in a competitive game against Chicago. What would make us think Chicago is the favorite here, making the 3 way tie scenario most likely. My read is LF wins it outright.

[SpartanHouse]

I don't know where the SOS will settle out but that seems to be where WW is pinning his hopes that Chicago ends up above Wheaton in the Regional Rankings (should Chicago's SOS be higher than Wheatons, which is far from certain). The criteria is pretty clear and emphasizing SOS while dismissing other known nuances in the criteria as "eye test" seems more hopeful than realistic. I (and most of the rest of D3) will be shocked if Wheaton isn't the #1 pool C team in the region and the criteria supports it.

I am not at all worried about the regional rankings but I am deeply concerned about selection Sunday and the criteria that will bear out in the process. Pat always says having only 10 games as data points makes this process a lot harder to sort out accurately. Seems like they got it right in 2019 with North Central.  As Wally has said, we will know a lot more after Saturday.

Actually, that is certain as far as I can tell. There is no remaining combination of outcomes that can elevate Wheaton's SOS equal to or past Chicago's. While it's possible that the difference could be negligible (as little as .005), that would require a few unlikely game outcomes, namely 2-5 Northwestern winning out, and 5-2 WUSTL losing out. A more likely scenario, in which WUSTL finishes 7-3 and NW finishes at 4-6, would leave the differential at around .035. In other words, considerable, and in requirement of lots of nuance to make Wheaton the #1 Pool C team in Region 5.

A more hopeful path for Wheaton could be a Lake Forest win at Monmouth Saturday. That would make Monmouth 8-2. Then LF vs Chicago in the season ender either results in a 3-way tie (have no idea how they'd break that) for the Pool A bid or an outright Lake Forest Pool A bid and a 8-2 Chicago team. If U of C is granted Pool A entry in the 3-way scenario, neither Monmouth at 8-2 or LF (with a comparable SOS to Wheaton on the basis of having played 2-5 Wiscosnin Lutheran in their NC game) would be a pool C threat to Wheaton.

Hickory, I think you're correct. WUSTL losing games hurts Chicago, but is basically a net-zero for Wheaton, since a WUSTL loss is a win for somebody else they've played.

This looks highly likely now. Looks very possible for a 3-way tie in the MWC. I'd be curious.....if Chicago beats LF in a close one, could Chicago and LF both get in?

The tie breaker for a three way tie is number of quarters led. If I were a betting man, I'd put $$$ on Chicago beating LF but LF still winning the conference. LF just needs to be ahead for one quarter to win the conference title based on quarters led.

In this scenario, does 9-1 Chicago make the playoffs w wins over Wash U and LF?

TBH, based on Saturday's results, my assumption is that LF will be the clear favorites, albeit in a competitive game against Chicago. What would make us think Chicago is the favorite here, making the 3 way tie scenario most likely. My read is LF wins it outright.

I think Chicago is better than LF.

[WW]

I don't know where the SOS will settle out but that seems to be where WW is pinning his hopes that Chicago ends up above Wheaton in the Regional Rankings (should Chicago's SOS be higher than Wheatons, which is far from certain). The criteria is pretty clear and emphasizing SOS while dismissing other known nuances in the criteria as "eye test" seems more hopeful than realistic. I (and most of the rest of D3) will be shocked if Wheaton isn't the #1 pool C team in the region and the criteria supports it.

I am not at all worried about the regional rankings but I am deeply concerned about selection Sunday and the criteria that will bear out in the process. Pat always says having only 10 games as data points makes this process a lot harder to sort out accurately. Seems like they got it right in 2019 with North Central.  As Wally has said, we will know a lot more after Saturday.

Actually, that is certain as far as I can tell. There is no remaining combination of outcomes that can elevate Wheaton's SOS equal to or past Chicago's. While it's possible that the difference could be negligible (as little as .005), that would require a few unlikely game outcomes, namely 2-5 Northwestern winning out, and 5-2 WUSTL losing out. A more likely scenario, in which WUSTL finishes 7-3 and NW finishes at 4-6, would leave the differential at around .035. In other words, considerable, and in requirement of lots of nuance to make Wheaton the #1 Pool C team in Region 5.

A more hopeful path for Wheaton could be a Lake Forest win at Monmouth Saturday. That would make Monmouth 8-2. Then LF vs Chicago in the season ender either results in a 3-way tie (have no idea how they'd break that) for the Pool A bid or an outright Lake Forest Pool A bid and a 8-2 Chicago team. If U of C is granted Pool A entry in the 3-way scenario, neither Monmouth at 8-2 or LF (with a comparable SOS to Wheaton on the basis of having played 2-5 Wiscosnin Lutheran in their NC game) would be a pool C threat to Wheaton.

Hickory, I think you're correct. WUSTL losing games hurts Chicago, but is basically a net-zero for Wheaton, since a WUSTL loss is a win for somebody else they've played.

This looks highly likely now. Looks very possible for a 3-way tie in the MWC. I'd be curious.....if Chicago beats LF in a close one, could Chicago and LF both get in?

The tie breaker for a three way tie is number of quarters led. If I were a betting man, I'd put $$$ on Chicago beating LF but LF still winning the conference. LF just needs to be ahead for one quarter to win the conference title based on quarters led.

In this scenario, does 9-1 Chicago make the playoffs w wins over Wash U and LF?

TBH, based on Saturday's results, my assumption is that LF will be the clear favorites, albeit in a competitive game against Chicago. What would make us think Chicago is the favorite here, making the 3 way tie scenario most likely. My read is LF wins it outright.

I think Chicago is better than LF.

So do I, but that's harder to justify now based on recent results. LF owned Monmouth; Chicago didn't.

[tf37]

I think Chicago is better than LF.

So do I, but that's harder to justify now based on recent results. LF owned Monmouth; Chicago didn't.

Well, if nuance, preseason biases, 2019 results and historic "standing" all have bearing on their RR game, Wheaton Chicago really has little to worry about.

Just saying...

[blue_jays]

I don't know where the SOS will settle out but that seems to be where WW is pinning his hopes that Chicago ends up above Wheaton in the Regional Rankings (should Chicago's SOS be higher than Wheatons, which is far from certain). The criteria is pretty clear and emphasizing SOS while dismissing other known nuances in the criteria as "eye test" seems more hopeful than realistic. I (and most of the rest of D3) will be shocked if Wheaton isn't the #1 pool C team in the region and the criteria supports it.

I am not at all worried about the regional rankings but I am deeply concerned about selection Sunday and the criteria that will bear out in the process. Pat always says having only 10 games as data points makes this process a lot harder to sort out accurately. Seems like they got it right in 2019 with North Central.  As Wally has said, we will know a lot more after Saturday.

Actually, that is certain as far as I can tell. There is no remaining combination of outcomes that can elevate Wheaton's SOS equal to or past Chicago's. While it's possible that the difference could be negligible (as little as .005), that would require a few unlikely game outcomes, namely 2-5 Northwestern winning out, and 5-2 WUSTL losing out. A more likely scenario, in which WUSTL finishes 7-3 and NW finishes at 4-6, would leave the differential at around .035. In other words, considerable, and in requirement of lots of nuance to make Wheaton the #1 Pool C team in Region 5.

A more hopeful path for Wheaton could be a Lake Forest win at Monmouth Saturday. That would make Monmouth 8-2. Then LF vs Chicago in the season ender either results in a 3-way tie (have no idea how they'd break that) for the Pool A bid or an outright Lake Forest Pool A bid and a 8-2 Chicago team. If U of C is granted Pool A entry in the 3-way scenario, neither Monmouth at 8-2 or LF (with a comparable SOS to Wheaton on the basis of having played 2-5 Wiscosnin Lutheran in their NC game) would be a pool C threat to Wheaton.

Hickory, I think you're correct. WUSTL losing games hurts Chicago, but is basically a net-zero for Wheaton, since a WUSTL loss is a win for somebody else they've played.

This looks highly likely now. Looks very possible for a 3-way tie in the MWC. I'd be curious.....if Chicago beats LF in a close one, could Chicago and LF both get in?

The tie breaker for a three way tie is number of quarters led. If I were a betting man, I'd put $$$ on Chicago beating LF but LF still winning the conference. LF just needs to be ahead for one quarter to win the conference title based on quarters led.

In this scenario, does 9-1 Chicago make the playoffs w wins over Wash U and LF?

TBH, based on Saturday's results, my assumption is that LF will be the clear favorites, albeit in a competitive game against Chicago. What would make us think Chicago is the favorite here, making the 3 way tie scenario most likely. My read is LF wins it outright.

I think Chicago is better than LF.

So do I, but that's harder to justify now based on recent results. LF owned Monmouth; Chicago didn't.

Monmouth had their mobile backup QB going versus UChicago and it allowed them to run roughshod in the first half. Once UChicago made its adjustments, they came back from 23 down and took the game down to its final play. If the regular starter pocket QB had played against Chicago, the Maroons win, no doubt in my mind.
That being said, Lake Forest looked mighty impressive in dismantling the Monmouth offense. The UChicago at LFC game will come down to if the Foresters can stop RB Nick D'Ambrose, who is second in the nation in rushing yards and should be conference player of the year.

[SpartanHouse]

I don't know where the SOS will settle out but that seems to be where WW is pinning his hopes that Chicago ends up above Wheaton in the Regional Rankings (should Chicago's SOS be higher than Wheatons, which is far from certain). The criteria is pretty clear and emphasizing SOS while dismissing other known nuances in the criteria as "eye test" seems more hopeful than realistic. I (and most of the rest of D3) will be shocked if Wheaton isn't the #1 pool C team in the region and the criteria supports it.

I am not at all worried about the regional rankings but I am deeply concerned about selection Sunday and the criteria that will bear out in the process. Pat always says having only 10 games as data points makes this process a lot harder to sort out accurately. Seems like they got it right in 2019 with North Central.  As Wally has said, we will know a lot more after Saturday.

Actually, that is certain as far as I can tell. There is no remaining combination of outcomes that can elevate Wheaton's SOS equal to or past Chicago's. While it's possible that the difference could be negligible (as little as .005), that would require a few unlikely game outcomes, namely 2-5 Northwestern winning out, and 5-2 WUSTL losing out. A more likely scenario, in which WUSTL finishes 7-3 and NW finishes at 4-6, would leave the differential at around .035. In other words, considerable, and in requirement of lots of nuance to make Wheaton the #1 Pool C team in Region 5.

A more hopeful path for Wheaton could be a Lake Forest win at Monmouth Saturday. That would make Monmouth 8-2. Then LF vs Chicago in the season ender either results in a 3-way tie (have no idea how they'd break that) for the Pool A bid or an outright Lake Forest Pool A bid and a 8-2 Chicago team. If U of C is granted Pool A entry in the 3-way scenario, neither Monmouth at 8-2 or LF (with a comparable SOS to Wheaton on the basis of having played 2-5 Wiscosnin Lutheran in their NC game) would be a pool C threat to Wheaton.

Hickory, I think you're correct. WUSTL losing games hurts Chicago, but is basically a net-zero for Wheaton, since a WUSTL loss is a win for somebody else they've played.

This looks highly likely now. Looks very possible for a 3-way tie in the MWC. I'd be curious.....if Chicago beats LF in a close one, could Chicago and LF both get in?

The tie breaker for a three way tie is number of quarters led. If I were a betting man, I'd put $$$ on Chicago beating LF but LF still winning the conference. LF just needs to be ahead for one quarter to win the conference title based on quarters led.

In this scenario, does 9-1 Chicago make the playoffs w wins over Wash U and LF?

TBH, based on Saturday's results, my assumption is that LF will be the clear favorites, albeit in a competitive game against Chicago. What would make us think Chicago is the favorite here, making the 3 way tie scenario most likely. My read is LF wins it outright.

I think Chicago is better than LF.

So do I, but that's harder to justify now based on recent results. LF owned Monmouth; Chicago didn't.

Monmouth had their mobile backup QB going versus UChicago and it allowed them to run roughshod in the first half. Once UChicago made its adjustments, they came back from 23 down and took the game down to its final play. If the regular starter pocket QB had played against Chicago, the Maroons win, no doubt in my mind.
That being said, Lake Forest looked mighty impressive in dismantling the Monmouth offense. The UChicago at LFC game will come down to if the Foresters can stop RB Nick D'Ambrose, who is second in the nation in rushing yards and should be conference player of the year.

D'Ambrose Is a nice player and should win POY.

Such a weird place to be in for Chicago. If you don't lead after any quarter, you can't win the conference championship.

I think it'll be a good game and UC will win it.

[OzJohnnie]

A stoush and I didn't even realise.

I think Wheaton's best hope is that Bethel gets passed up because the MIAC made them play SJU twice this year.  If BU beats SJU in the MIAC championship then I think there's no room left for Wheaton.  HSU, UWL, Randolf-Macon, Ithica, and BU/SJU all have significantly stronger schedules than Wheaton.  The argument can be made that John-Hopkins/Susquehanna do as well.

Teams really need to beef up that out-of-conference schedule.  Can't play 2-6 teams from the MWC anymore when you're not certain to win out conference play.  Top teams are all getting too aware of selection Sunday and scheduling to position well.  SJU used to finish middle of the pack in SOS but not any more.  Now winning teams are scheduled for the non-conference games.

[Thunderdome21]

A stoush and I didn't even realise.

I think Wheaton's best hope is that Bethel gets passed up because the MIAC made them play SJU twice this year.  If BU beats SJU in the MIAC championship then I think there's no room left for Wheaton.  HSU, UWL, Randolf-Macon, Ithica, and BU/SJU all have significantly stronger schedules than Wheaton.  The argument can be made that John-Hopkins/Susquehanna do as well.

Teams really need to beef up that out-of-conference schedule.  Can't play 2-6 teams from the MWC anymore when you're not certain to win out conference play.  Top teams are all getting too aware of selection Sunday and scheduling to position well.  SJU used to finish middle of the pack in SOS but not any more.  Now winning teams are scheduled for the non-conference games.

So can 8-2 teams with tougher schedules jump a 9-1 team with a weaker schedule if Wheaton wins out? Ithaca plays two 8-0 teams in a row to close out their season. UWL still has 8-0 Whitewater on their schedule. Randolph-Macon has a somewhat easier team in Sidney Hampden-Henry but it isn't a guarantee.

[USee]

I think it's safe to say an 8-2 team won't pass Wheaton at the table this year. The primary criteria include winning percentage. Teams with 1 loss will then compared by SOS, RRO results, etc.

[OzJohnnie]

I think it's safe to say an 8-2 team won't pass Wheaton at the table this year. The primary criteria include winning percentage. Teams with 1 loss will then compared by SOS, RRO results, etc.

UWL is the exception.  Their only loss so far was a to-the-wire affair against the currently #7 DII team.  It's a loss that doesn't count.  In fact, some may treat it like a win.

Bethel may be an exception as i could see the committee counting two losses to SJU (knock on wood) as only one loss.  With the new and dynamically scheduled conference championship week concept in the MIAC, BU is forced to play the Johnnies twice in-conference.  It's feasible for the committee to look past that setup.

[USee]

Agreed on UWL--I was assuming 8-2 on a D3 schedule. They will ostensibly be a 9-1 team.

No chance on Bethel at 8-2. I don't see it. The committee isn't going to look past a second loss, no matter the details

[D3FLETCH]

Wheaton needs to focus on the recently surging Titans. If IWU can run the ball effectively with Bullie/Marre/Albin the game could get interesting. The titans have done a good job keeping games close against Wheaton in recent years.

2014
(3-6) IWU 7
(9-0) Wheaton 13

[Next Man Up]

I think it's safe to say an 8-2 team won't pass Wheaton at the table this year. The primary criteria include winning percentage. Teams with 1 loss will then compared by SOS, RRO results, etc.

UWL is the exception.  Their only loss so far was a to-the-wire affair against the currently #7 DII team.  It's a loss that doesn't count.  In fact, some may treat it like a win.

Bethel may be an exception as i could see the committee counting two losses to SJU (knock on wood) as only one loss.  With the new and dynamically scheduled conference championship week concept in the MIAC, BU is forced to play the Johnnies twice in-conference.  It's feasible for the committee to look past that setup.

Yes, 1 + 1 = 1. Unfortunately, I think that type math only works in Minnesota. If Bethel got credit for only one loss it seems only fair that SJU be credited with only one victory. 

[Next Man Up]

Wheaton needs to focus on the recently surging Titans. If IWU can run the ball effectively with Bullie/Marre/Albin the game could get interesting. The titans have done a good job keeping games close against Wheaton in recent years.

2014
(3-6) IWU 7
(9-0) Wheaton 13

In recent yearS? I see only ONE year mentioned and it looks like it was still a W for the Central DuPagers.
Will Bullie even play?
The only thing that will be surging for the Weenies will be their posteriors as the Crusaders will knock
The p👀p out of them.