FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[matblake]

As we approach the final week, we have POY/COY awards to consider.

I think it's likely a clean sweep by NCC and depends somewhat on who Jeff Thorne nominates. My choices would be:

OPOY: Andrew Kamienski, WR-best offensive player on the best offense and #2 rated offense in the country
DPOY: Jake Beesley, DB--the best player on the conference champ defense
COY: Jeff Thorne

The only debate I would have is  making Wheaton DT Jake Holladay Co-DPOY. The Thunder have the #1 Defense in conference, lead the nation in sacks, #2 in the nation in run defense and Holladay has been dominant in every game this year. He is having a similar year to McRae in 2019 who was DPOY and D3DPOY.  I think Beesley is the best player on that defense and their secondary is elite, which is why they are a top 10 defense in the country.

I agree. Your case for co-defensive player is strong.  However unfair though, I have to go with Beesley.  Wheaton found out the hard way that throwing his direction is like saying, "It's ok, we didn't really need that yardage and down, we'll make it up someplace else I guess."

[CardinalAlum]

As we approach the final week, we have POY/COY awards to consider.

I think it's likely a clean sweep by NCC and depends somewhat on who Jeff Thorne nominates. My choices would be:

OPOY: Andrew Kamienski, WR-best offensive player on the best offense and #2 rated offense in the country
DPOY: Jake Beesley, DB--the best player on the conference champ defense
COY: Jeff Thorne

The only debate I would have is  making Wheaton DT Jake Holladay Co-DPOY. The Thunder have the #1 Defense in conference, lead the nation in sacks, #2 in the nation in run defense and Holladay has been dominant in every game this year. He is having a similar year to McRae in 2019 who was DPOY and D3DPOY.  I think Beesley is the best player on that defense and their secondary is elite, which is why they are a top 10 defense in the country.

COTY-I would hope Jeff Thorne would be an easy choice this year.  If NPU would've won another game or two, Rooker would've gotten some consideration I'm guessing. 

OPOY-Kamienski is a great choice... Greenfield, Lehnen, Clarke would all be great choices.  Like you said, whoever JT chooses to nominate.

DPOY-Beesley and Holladay both are very deserving and it would be a shame for either not to share that award.  Gilroy, Cremeens, Lindmark have also been outstanding.

All conference awards are always interesting, but more so this year with NCC and Wheaton clearly being the top two teams.  Curious how some positions will go. 

[USee]

Regional Rankings come out tomorrow. HansenRatings published his prediction (he has been very accurate) in the following order:

North Central
Central
Lake Forest
Wheaton
Chicago
Aurora
Coe
Wartburg

Just below the 8 team cutoff he has:
Monmouth
Lakeland
Benedicting
WashU

I'll be surprised if Wartburg isn't ahead of Coe due to the HTH result.

[kiko]

As we approach the final week, we have POY/COY awards to consider.

I think it's likely a clean sweep by NCC and depends somewhat on who Jeff Thorne nominates. My choices would be:

OPOY: Andrew Kamienski, WR-best offensive player on the best offense and #2 rated offense in the country
DPOY: Jake Beesley, DB--the best player on the conference champ defense
COY: Jeff Thorne

The only debate I would have is  making Wheaton DT Jake Holladay Co-DPOY. The Thunder have the #1 Defense in conference, lead the nation in sacks, #2 in the nation in run defense and Holladay has been dominant in every game this year. He is having a similar year to McRae in 2019 who was DPOY and D3DPOY.  I think Beesley is the best player on that defense and their secondary is elite, which is why they are a top 10 defense in the country.

COTY-I would hope Jeff Thorne would be an easy choice this year.  If NPU would've won another game or two, Rooker would've gotten some consideration I'm guessing. 

OPOY-Kamienski is a great choice... Greenfield, Lehnen, Clarke would all be great choices.  Like you said, whoever JT chooses to nominate.

DPOY-Beesley and Holladay both are very deserving and it would be a shame for either not to share that award.  Gilroy, Cremeens, Lindmark have also been outstanding.

All conference awards are always interesting, but more so this year with NCC and Wheaton clearly being the top two teams.  Curious how some positions will go.

I think the fact that there are so many fifth- and sixth-year players could also create a different skew than we typically see in how the all conference awards play out.

Re: OPOY... it kind of comes down to what you value more:  Kamienski is the best player on North Central's offense; Lehnen was the difference-maker in the Cardinals' most important game and his running ability has IMO been an accelerant to an already elite unit.  And, since Jeff Thorne gets to decide who he will nominate, whether he will nominate a senior or a freshman.

[hazzben]

COTY would have to be Norm right?! I mean look at the 1/2 and 1/4 of high quality coaching he did against NCC and Wheaton, neither of which was really the superior team...

[CardinalAlum]

COTY would have to be Norm right?! I mean look at the 1/2 and 1/4 of high quality coaching he did against NCC and Wheaton, neither of which was really the superior team...

forgot about that!  Great call! 

[Next Man Up]

As we approach the final week, we have POY/COY awards to consider.

I think it's likely a clean sweep by NCC and depends somewhat on who Jeff Thorne nominates. My choices would be:

OPOY: Andrew Kamienski, WR-best offensive player on the best offense and #2 rated offense in the country
DPOY: Jake Beesley, DB--the best player on the conference champ defense
COY: Jeff Thorne

The only debate I would have is  making Wheaton DT Jake Holladay Co-DPOY. The Thunder have the #1 Defense in conference, lead the nation in sacks, #2 in the nation in run defense and Holladay has been dominant in every game this year. He is having a similar year to McRae in 2019 who was DPOY and D3DPOY.  I think Beesley is the best player on that defense and their secondary is elite, which is why they are a top 10 defense in the country.

COTY-I would hope Jeff Thorne would be an easy choice this year.  If NPU would've won another game or two, Rooker would've gotten some consideration I'm guessing. 

OPOY-Kamienski is a great choice... Greenfield, Lehnen, Clarke would all be great choices.  Like you said, whoever JT chooses to nominate.

DPOY-Beesley and Holladay both are very deserving and it would be a shame for either not to share that award.  Gilroy, Cremeens, Lindmark have also been outstanding.

All conference awards are always interesting, but more so this year with NCC and Wheaton clearly being the top two teams.  Curious how some positions will go.

I think the fact that there are so many fifth- and sixth-year players could also create a different skew than we typically see in how the all conference awards play out.

Re: OPOY... it kind of comes down to what you value more:  Kamienski is the best player on North Central's offense; Lehnen was the difference-maker in the Cardinals' most important game and his running ability has IMO been an accelerant to an already elite unit.  And, since Jeff Thorne gets to decide who he will nominate, whether he will nominate a senior or a freshman.

Lehnen can win it next year, Kamienski can't.

[USee]

And Kamienski couldn't win it either of the last two yrs either

[USee]

RR this week:
https://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2021/second-regional-ranking

[thunderdog]

I'll throw my .02 into the pool C discussion:

Good news for Wheaton fans is the #3 spot (top at-large spot) in the region 5 rankings. Outside of a Wheaton collapse in Decatur, I don't see a scenario where Wheaton can get trumped for this spot. Although if Wheaton barely scraps by with a win and Lake Forest dominates Chicago, I guess it's possible LF jumps ahead of Wheaton in region 5. This would mean Wheaton would get 5 at bats to get an at-large.

Anyways... here's my prediction for pool C, in order:
1) Birmingham Southern
2) Hardin Simmons
3) UW Lacrosse
4) Baldwin Wallace
5) Wheaton

Birmingham Southern may be a bit surprising for the #1 spot. My reasoning is this... IMO, the best resume is Hardin Simmons. HSU's only loss is to #2 UMBH by a score of 28-34, a game in which they led 28-7 at halftime. Can't say I watched that game, and I know some have referenced that game earlier this year, but to me, a large halftime lead and a narrow loss easily qualifies as the 'best loss' of the season. Making HSU my pick for the #1 spot, but that's impossible since they're behind Birmingham Southern in region 3. I honestly have no idea if the committee would give the top 2 spots to the same region, but that's my story and I'm sticking to it.

UWL also get consideration for the top spot. UWL's 7-13 to UWW probably ranks as the 2nd best loss of the season. However, that is offset somewhat by the UWPlateville game. If UWP's QB spikes the ball instead of taking a knee at the end of the game, UWL could easily have a 2nd d3 loss and be out of contention.

Baldwin Wallace obviously needs to win against a very tough opponent in John Carroll to remain in contention. As things stand in region 4, the OAC occupies 4 of the 7 spots with UMU, BW, Heidelberg, JCU. A win over JCU makes them 2-1 RRO and a virtual lock for one of the 5 spots, IMO. GO JCU! No offense intended B-Dubs

There's no denying Wheaton's resume, per the criteria, ain't great. Low SOS and 0-1 vs RRO. I still think they're the last team in. Wheaton's 7-20 loss to reigning national champion NCC, a game that was tied 7-7 at half, comes in as the 3rd 'best loss' of the season. Yes, a case can be made to move that up to the 2nd best, and possibly even the best, but I'll stick with the #3 spot. It's possible this is all wishful thinking as Wheaton finds itself in a very similar position to NCC in 2019 (when NCC was the last team to make the field). In 2019, NCC got boosted by WashU sliding into the bottom of the regional rankings. I don't think Wheaton will get that added boost in 2021. That depends on the LF vs Chicago game. A strong performance, even if it's a loss, could potentially move WashU into the bottom spot in region 5.

The big wild card is the SJU vs Bethel game. A Bethel win, would move all teams down one notch as I think SJU would slide into the #1 at-large spot due to their victory over Aurora.

Yes, I understand than fans of regions 1 & 2 won't be happy.

Let the debate begin...

[USee]

A lot going on in the regional rankings this week as teams go from being simply listed to actually ranked. We get to see how the different regional committees value criteria and how some position themselves for their region to succeed.

The Five stacks up like this:
1   North Central (Ill.)   9-0   .542
2   Central    9-0   .466
3   Wheaton (Ill.)   8-1   .495
4   Lake Forest   9-0   .450
5   Aurora   7-2   .570
6   Coe   7-2   .517
7   Chicago   8-1   .471
8   Wartburg   6-3   .575

I believe these regional committees know how the system works and so they use the criteria to set themselves up for optimal success. In the Five, they are setting up for seeding for the top teams and they see Wheaton as the optimal pool C candidate. If you look in the Six, they put Gustavus in the rankings this week, which strongly bolsters the MIAC's top teams to potentially get 2 bids, even if Bethel loses this week to STJU a second time. Interesting that the Three put BSC ahead of Hardin Simmons. Doesn't make sense.

Wheaton could still use a Baldwin Wallace loss to John Carroll this weekend and for both Ithaca and Union to lose to RPI.

Looking forward to the D3.com's take on all this, probably coming soon.

[USee]

THunderdog, I don't see an LL team getting left at the table if its 9-1 Ithaca or 9-1 Union. Both need to lose. I agree Hardin Simmons should be ranked above BSC.

[thunderdog]

THunderdog, I don't see an LL team getting left at the table if its 9-1 Ithaca or 9-1 Union. Both need to lose. I agree Hardin Simmons should be ranked above BSC.

Could this be a case of the region 3 committee being greedy? A strategic play to get 2 of the 5 spots? It could backfire as Birmingham Southern may never get picked, leaving HSU with no chance at the dance.

[wally_wabash]

I believe these regional committees know how the system works and so they use the criteria to set themselves up for optimal success. In the Five, they are setting up for seeding for the top teams and they see Wheaton as the optimal pool C candidate. If you look in the Six, they put Gustavus in the rankings this week, which strongly bolsters the MIAC's top teams to potentially get 2 bids, even if Bethel loses this week to STJU a second time. Interesting that the Three put BSC ahead of Hardin Simmons. Doesn't make sense.

Wheaton could still use a Baldwin Wallace loss to John Carroll this weekend and for both Ithaca and Union to lose to RPI.

Looking forward to the D3.com's take on all this, probably coming soon.

First, appreciate adoption of the "The Three" nomenclature.   

Second, I think this does make sense.  BSC and HSU push on win percentage and SOS (HSU  is 0.003 higher than BSC which is negligible).  HSU is 0-1 vs. RRO, a 6 point loss to Region 3's #1 team.  BSC is 1-1 vs. RRO with a single point loss to Region 3's #2 team and a 7 point win over another regionally ranked team (we don't really know where Centre was ranked last week, but probably 7).  Centre is out and they'll lose that RRO result (for now) but they were replaced by Huntingdon which is actually a better result for BSC (not counting this week, but will this weekend).  And who knows, if Centre trounces Berry, maybe Centre shows back up and BSC gets up to 2-1 vs. RROs after all (maybe Berry could play their way in with a big win also...also would enhance BSC's profile).  They won't be any worse than 1-1, which is better in this area than HSU can achieve. 

I think the margin between BSC and HSU is thin, but this ranking is fair and I don't know what happens (other than BSC losing) this weekend that would change it before Saturday night's conference call. 

[USee]

https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/football/d3/2021-22D3MFB_PreChampManual.pdf

Championship manual is available finally. Besides listing criteria and site info (I didn't know 2 heaters are allowed for each sideline and paid for by NCAA) it lists who the committees are.

The Six has 5 people on its committee:

Michael Schulist, Chair (and also on national committee), Carroll College
Caleb Padilla, Luther College
Dan Gritti, Millikin
Daniella Irie, Knox
Colin Bruton, Lakeland

These are the ones deciding how to rank The Five.