FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[WashedUpCard]

Massey has NCC as a 55/45 favorite, with a predicted final score of North Central 31, Mary Hardin-Baylor 28.

Very similar to Logan Hansen, who has 55.9/44.1 in favor of NCC

Bill Connelly (ESPN SP+) has it at 38.4 / 36.1 in favor of NCC.  It should be a great game!

Yet he still has Wis-Whitewater ranked ahead of UMHB even after the semi final result, that's tough to agree with!

Haha!  I didn't even look at the rankings since its sort of irrelevant at this juncture.  That definitely deserves a "C'Mon, Man"!

[MRMIKESMITH]

Massey has NCC as a 55/45 favorite, with a predicted final score of North Central 31, Mary Hardin-Baylor 28.

Very similar to Logan Hansen, who has 55.9/44.1 in favor of NCC

Hopkins in front of Muhlenberg and Carroll in front of W&J...Reminder unless there are manual adjustments, historical data is heavily used including opponents/opponents data.

Bill Connelly (ESPN SP+) has it at 38.4 / 36.1 in favor of NCC.  It should be a great game!

Yet he still has Wis-Whitewater ranked ahead of UMHB even after the semi final result, that's tough to agree with!

Haha!  I didn't even look at the rankings since its sort of irrelevant at this juncture.  That definitely deserves a "C'Mon, Man"!

[USee]

I have taken a long look at MHB  and have the following observations:

Offense:
-62% run/38% pass. They are not a prolific run team but they are committed to it. 5.3 yds per carry
-#5 Alphonse Thomas and #27 Kenneth Cormier are good backs at 5.6 ypc and 5.4 ypc resectively
-They are a big play offense. 90% of their drives that end in TD's have included at least 1 play of 20+ yds, usually in the pass game. While Brandon Jordan gets the head billing because of his size, #1 Brenton Martin actually leads the team in yards per catch at 22 (Jordan is at 19 ypc)
-They struggled to run the ball against UWW, which would have been expected, gaining only 60 yds rushing on 35 attempts.
-They killed UWW on big plays. Every scoring drive had a play of 25+ yds involved. 3 WR's who will kill you deep #21, #7 and #1

Defense:
Top 10 defense-very strong against the run except vs Hardin Simmons (220 yds rushing). No one else had more than 100 and most had low single digits.
-Front 7 are very active and play a lot of guys. 37 sacks on the year and 125 TFL (Wheaton front had 48 and 97 as a comparison).
-Don't give up many big plays, 2 deep safeties much of the time
-LB's can run and cover guys down the middle of the field to protect the zone
-Leading tacklers are 2 LB's #33 and #3 and AA Safety #2
-Very aggressive secondary. (when you play a lot of 2 deep zone your eyes are on the QB and you can be more aggressive)

QB completes 64% of his passes and has thrown 32 TDs on just 2 INT's.

I think NCC's game plan is going to be simple. On offense they are gonna do what they do which is run the ball and hit you deep. The chess match here will be: Can MHB stop NCC from running it and still play 2 safeties? If they can, they are gonna win. If they can't, the chess match begins. When MHB committs extra guys to the run, Jeff Thorne (whose son is starting QB for Michigan State BTW) will try and hit you down the field with Williams/Hardy, etc and/or in the slot with Kamienski. Lehnen becomes a key guy when this happens, he is gonna have to get rid of the ball against this front and/or use his legs to buy time or run. Wheaton's front is the only one who held up against NCC run this year so far. This is the best front since then. Athletes are all around on Def but the way you attack speed/Athleticism is run right at it. NCC likes to double team the DL and create movement, often pulling the other guard to get up to the second level. the perimeter blocking of NCC's WR against MHB Db's will also be key in the run game. I think Thorne is one of the best game plan coaches in the country and he knows what you have to do to stop him and he will counterpunch with the best.

On Defense NCC has to very simply stop the big plays. If they can keep MHB from 20+ passing plays, they will win. NCC's secondary is one of the best I have seen all year. UWW's is also very good but their problem is they have 5-9/5-10 guys against 6-6 and 6-1. NCC has the best corner in the country in Jake Beesely and he is 6-3 and fast. That will be a battle worth watching as I expect him to shadow Brandon Jordan all over the field. I also expect 6-2 safety Braden Lindmark to get involved. NCC has to be solid against the run and be willing to give up some first downs while protecting the big play. Easier said than done against one of the best deep threat teams in the country.

Two games I am interested in for MHB. Against Hardin Simmons they gave up 220 yds rushing (6.7 ypc) and no one else came close including UWW (64 yds on 30 carries). Linfield threw the ball for 440 yds and the next best effort was about half that. NCC wants to run it like HS and pass it like Linfield! Kamienski wasn't a factor against UMU because he didn't need to be. I'll be interested to see if NCC can get MHB out of the 2 deep safeties by running right at this athletic and explosive front. And can NCC's big and athletic secondary slow down the deep ball?

Special teams are gonna be huge as both teams have excellent return games and kicking expertise.

I think NCC is a slight favorite here because they match up very well with the strengths of MHB. But if MHB goes to a 1 high safety or Man to Man to help stop the run, the Luke Lehnen is gonna be on the spot to deliver in the pass game. I bet that's the direction this game ends up going and the team that can generate the most big plays is gonna win.

[Bartman]

A late congratulation to the Cardinals for their success this year from an extremely impressed Liberty League Conference fan. Your offense is impressive to watch for a D3 fan. Good luck in the Stagg Bowl !

[kiko]

I have taken a long look at MHB  and have the following observations:

Offense:
-62% run/38% pass. They are not a prolific run team but they are committed to it. 5.3 yds per carry
-#5 Alphonse Thomas and #27 Kenneth Cormier are good backs at 5.6 ypc and 5.4 ypc resectively
-They are a big play offense. 90% of their drives that end in TD's have included at least 1 play of 20+ yds, usually in the pass game. While Brandon Jordan gets the head billing because of his size, #1 Brenton Martin actually leads the team in yards per catch at 22 (Jordan is at 19 ypc)
-They struggled to run the ball against UWW, which would have been expected, gaining only 60 yds rushing on 35 attempts.
-They killed UWW on big plays. Every scoring drive had a play of 25+ yds involved. 3 WR's who will kill you deep #21, #7 and #1

Defense:
Top 10 defense-very strong against the run except vs Hardin Simmons (220 yds rushing). No one else had more than 100 and most had low single digits.
-Front 7 are very active and play a lot of guys. 37 sacks on the year and 125 TFL (Wheaton front had 48 and 97 as a comparison).
-Don't give up many big plays, 2 deep safeties much of the time
-LB's can run and cover guys down the middle of the field to protect the zone
-Leading tacklers are 2 LB's #33 and #3 and AA Safety #2
-Very aggressive secondary. (when you play a lot of 2 deep zone your eyes are on the QB and you can be more aggressive)

QB completes 64% of his passes and has thrown 32 TDs on just 2 INT's.

I think NCC's game plan is going to be simple. On offense they are gonna do what they do which is run the ball and hit you deep. The chess match here will be: Can MHB stop NCC from running it and still play 2 safeties? If they can, they are gonna win. If they can't, the chess match begins. When MHB committs extra guys to the run, Jeff Thorne (whose son is starting QB for Michigan State BTW) will try and hit you down the field with Williams/Hardy, etc and/or in the slot with Kamienski. Lehnen becomes a key guy when this happens, he is gonna have to get rid of the ball against this front and/or use his legs to buy time or run. Wheaton's front is the only one who held up against NCC run this year so far. This is the best front since then. Athletes are all around on Def but the way you attack speed/Athleticism is run right at it. NCC likes to double team the DL and create movement, often pulling the other guard to get up to the second level. the perimeter blocking of NCC's WR against MHB Db's will also be key in the run game. I think Thorne is one of the best game plan coaches in the country and he knows what you have to do to stop him and he will counterpunch with the best.

On Defense NCC has to very simply stop the big plays. If they can keep MHB from 20+ passing plays, they will win. NCC's secondary is one of the best I have seen all year. UWW's is also very good but their problem is they have 5-9/5-10 guys against 6-6 and 6-1. NCC has the best corner in the country in Jake Beesely and he is 6-3 and fast. That will be a battle worth watching as I expect him to shadow Brandon Jordan all over the field. I also expect 6-2 safety Braden Lindmark to get involved. NCC has to be solid against the run and be willing to give up some first downs while protecting the big play. Easier said than done against one of the best deep threat teams in the country.

Two games I am interested in for MHB. Against Hardin Simmons they gave up 220 yds rushing (6.7 ypc) and no one else came close including UWW (64 yds on 30 carries). Linfield threw the ball for 440 yds and the next best effort was about half that. NCC wants to run it like HS and pass it like Linfield! Kamienski wasn't a factor against UMU because he didn't need to be. I'll be interested to see if NCC can get MHB out of the 2 deep safeties by running right at this athletic and explosive front. And can NCC's big and athletic secondary slow down the deep ball?

Special teams are gonna be huge as both teams have excellent return games and kicking expertise.

I think NCC is a slight favorite here because they match up very well with the strengths of MHB. But if MHB goes to a 1 high safety or Man to Man to help stop the run, the Luke Lehnen is gonna be on the spot to deliver in the pass game. I bet that's the direction this game ends up going and the team that can generate the most big plays is gonna win.

I know that you are as far from being a Cardinal fan as one can be, and in light of that wanted to note that I appreciate the obvious time investment that this took to put together.

[kiko]

Forecast for Friday calls for a high of 47 and low of 32, with a 40% chance of rain.

We're a couple of days out so it is worth noting that Thursday has a 60% chance of rain and Saturday shows 90%.

[emma17]

Congratulations to the entire NCC program, for the victory over MT and for getting back to the Stagg w all the challenges that come from the expectations.

Usee always provides an interesting and thorough game breakdown, which I enjoy.

From my viewpoint, the keys are:
-Will King continue w his pinpoint accuracy. His back shoulder and high point throws to Jordan are in the category of "not defendable".
-Will he continue w his willingness to throw the deep ball and trust his WR's to make plays. UMHB has guys that win the one on one battles despite good coverage.
-Will Greenfield have the same physical success running through tackles against UMHB's defenders.
-Will NCC take what the defense doesn't want to give them.  The underneath stuff works occasionally, but some teams begin to rely on the checkdowns as the primary, which benefits UMHB.

[USee]

I thought the scheme of UWW in the run game (zone blocking) hurt them against a penetrating and athletic front. NCC's scheme is more man blocking with double teams that chip off at the second level. That's much harder to beat with speed/athleticism and NCC's offensive line has plenty athleticism to counter.

UWW's defensive plan was perfect, they limited the run game and played it very well. Their only issue is they gave up big plays to in the pass game, much of them against covered WR's who came down with the 50/50 balls. I think that's because the UWW DB's are all 5-9/5-10. NCC matches up much better with their best cover guy being 6-3 and their next best is 6-2. Against Wheaton the Thunder lined up 6-6 250 lb Spencer Peterson out wide against Beesley. The Thunder's lone TD was a fade in the endzone to Peterson over Beesley. The next 5 times they challenged Beesley with that matchup didn't go so well. Cremeens (#4) is the midget in the group. The back shoulder fade is tough to stop if he throws it the way he did last week. NCC does play some soft cover 2 which would help take that away. The circle route to the RB might also give NCC some trouble. 

Both these teams are built similarly and want to do the same thing: Run the ball and hit big plays on offense and stop the run and don't give up big plays on defense. That's about as simple as you can break this down. The team that can run it and hit the big ball more often is going to win.

[nccfac]

USEE, that really basically sums it up. All we need now is the game to see who prevails. Hope the weather is not as rainy and that everyone stays healthy before and during the game. Only thing left to say is: Go Cards!

[Stagg Again!!]

Forecast for Friday calls for a high of 47 and low of 32, with a 40% chance of rain.

We're a couple of days out so it is worth noting that Thursday has a 60% chance of rain and Saturday shows 90%.

And a 100% chance of Red!!

I want to take a moment to thank USee for all of his comments here during the past few days.  I have done my own analysis throughout the year and find most of his comments to be spot on this week.  The only quick add that I have is that NCC's DL doesn't often get the credit that it deserves.  During the biggest games of the year, NCC allowed 72 yds on the ground to Mount, -12 to RPI, 47 to UWL, as well as 120 to WC and 83 to AU early in the season before the rotation was firmed up.  Other than McRae and Holaday at WC, I have not seen any better "pure play" run stoppers in the country this year than they have in Naperville (though I must admit that I did not see Del Val play in 2021 and think highly of the Nobiles based on what I saw in 2019). 

Often times, folks on these boards highlight that the Cards don't get enough penetration.  That may be true at times, but the NCC linemen do maintain solid gap/lane integrity... they almost never allow opposing QBs to escape the pocket for big yards, and they ALWAYS shut down draw plays.  Additionally, opposing offenses RARELY have success running through the A or B gaps.  The only success that opponents have really had is on the occasional off-tackle run early in ball games (but that usually gets shut down by halftime).  Finally, I have seen several of NCC's opponents totally abandon their running games after achieving no early success on the ground.  This has allowed NCC's DEs to pin their ears back and get after the opposing QBs, often resulting in critical/timely negative yardage plays that help to turn early Cardinal leads into halftime blowouts.  So, while USee is spot on with his analysis of the NCC secondary, I did want to highlight the successes of Martin, Brinkman, Greifelt, Lewis, Gilroy, Hartman, Rich, Kettelkamp, and Spivey.  I am eager to see if this group of young men can close out the season by turning MHB into a one dimensional offense that tries to throw into the teeth of NCC's secondary with the cold hard rain falling at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium.

[USee]

https://truetothecru.com/2021/12/14/back-in-contention-umhb-ready-for-fridays-stagg-bowl-against-north-central/

The Crusaders are led offensively by the quarterback-wide receiver duo of Kyle King and Brandon Jordan, who combined for 164 passing yards and two touchdowns in the win at UW-Whitewater. King has thrown for 2,246 yards in 11 games and ranks second in the nation in passing efficiency, while Jordan leads the team in receiving yards, with 971.

"He really has great athleticism," Fredenburg said of Jordan. "[He has] great hand-eye coordination, catches the ball well, stays inbounds, and does the things necessary to win a one on one matchup.

"The thing that I also think is very helpful is Kyle puts the ball in a little window of opportunity for him. That's the key to it. He throws it where the defensive back has a hard time getting to it."

As Jordan has progressed throughout his first full season in Belton, opponents have begun to take notice. That includes North Central head coach Jeff Thorne, who was asked about Jordan and the matchup challenge he presents on Monday.

"We're going to have our hands full," Thorne said. "He's really talented. But you've got to be careful with that, because they've got a lot of other really talented players. Their running back is dynamic, their quarterback is dual-threat. They've got other guys on the outside that can really run."

With it being a matchup of the nation's No. 1 and No. 2 ranked teams, according to both the most recent American Football Coaches Association Top 25 Poll and D3football.com Top 25 Poll, Fredenburg has no doubt about the quality of the contest, nor the quality of the opponent.

"The first thing you see is how incredibly gifted they are talent-wise, and how quick, and fast, and hard they play," Fredenburg said of North Central. "They swarm the ball on defense."

Thorne expects a similar caliber of play from the Crusaders in Friday's contest, which marks the first time the two programs have met.

"They remind us a lot of Wheaton College," Thorne said, when asked if there was an opponent the Cardinal faced this season that is comparable to UMHB. "Defensively, they're really good, [with an] unbelievable front seven. And the best secondary we've seen this year. They're a very athletic, very talented team."

[blue_jays]

AFCA All-Americans are out and it is a head-scratching list. Once again proves that coaches are bad at voting for awards (the soccer coaches this year did a laughably poor job this year as well). No Greenfield is just dumb.
I look forward to a much more legitimate list from D3football.

https://www.afca.com/centrals-blaine-hawkins-and-monmouths-korbyn-personett-headline-the-2021-afca-division-iii-coaches-all-america-teams/

[CardinalAlum]

AFCA All-Americans are out and it is a head-scratching list. Once again proves that coaches are bad at voting for awards (the soccer coaches this year did a laughably poor job this year as well). No Greenfield is just dumb.
I look forward to a much more legitimate list from D3football.

https://www.afca.com/centrals-blaine-hawkins-and-monmouths-korbyn-personett-headline-the-2021-afca-division-iii-coaches-all-america-teams/

What a joke!  Ethan Greenfield is the best RB in the country!

[blue_jays]

AFCA All-Americans are out and it is a head-scratching list. Once again proves that coaches are bad at voting for awards (the soccer coaches this year did a laughably poor job this year as well). No Greenfield is just dumb.
I look forward to a much more legitimate list from D3football.

https://www.afca.com/centrals-blaine-hawkins-and-monmouths-korbyn-personett-headline-the-2021-afca-division-iii-coaches-all-america-teams/

What a joke!  Ethan Greenfield is the best RB in the country!

It was clear that the coaches just ignored context. I don't wanna call out individuals cuz it's not fair to the players being singled out, but there are some mediocre teams represented on here that I wouldn't reward.

[WashedUpCard]

AFCA All-Americans are out and it is a head-scratching list. Once again proves that coaches are bad at voting for awards (the soccer coaches this year did a laughably poor job this year as well). No Greenfield is just dumb.
I look forward to a much more legitimate list from D3football.

https://www.afca.com/centrals-blaine-hawkins-and-monmouths-korbyn-personett-headline-the-2021-afca-division-iii-coaches-all-america-teams/

What a joke!  Ethan Greenfield is the best RB in the country!

1000% agree.  I'm speechless.