FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[wally_wabash]

The CCIW finished their non conference schedule at 6-4, as I predicted and were a low extra point away from a chance at 7-3. While the competition overall was weaker this year than last years 4-6, given all the returning starters, I do think the conference is overall stronger than they were a year ago.

I still disagree. On Saturday the CCIW beat up a couple of nonentities; the one traditionally impressive name the CCIW bested was Wabash, and fans of the Diminutive Colossi would be the first to tell you that their program has slipped, especially on the defensive side of the ball (I mean, come on ... 48 points given up to Hampden-Sydney?!).

Only 20 in the second half, Greg.  Be fair. 

[USee]

Well we can certainly disagree and I have no problem with that. You might be the only person who thinks HansenRatings is no good. I think his accuracy has been much more predictable than yours or mine. CCIW is better in my view. Maybe not dramatically, but certainly better overall. Millikin, Augie, WashU, IWU, all better than a year ago. I have seen all those games.

Elmhurst was ranked 188th. I am not gonna argue if they should be 200th or 170th. Doesn't matter. NPU, should be better than they showed last week. Augie will end up 6-4 is my guess. IWU is more difficulty (I said 7-3) with their QB situation so may have to reconsider them in the coming weeks.

So if it's just your and my subjective view that is in opposition, I am perfectly comfortable with my view.

[WUPHF]

Wash U? The Bears did the same thing to hapless Hendrix that Carroll did to WLC, but our 2021 Isthmus Bowl rep starts from a higher perch in the pecking order than Carroll does, so I'm much more guarded about the "dramatically better" appellation in Wash U's case.

Hendrix did come in with 20-0 win over Austin College.

It is hard to see how a team with a 20-0 win could look so hapless but they did.

The Warriors capitalized on a couple of forced and unforced errors to get in to the end zone once and almost a second time, but otherwise the Bears so thoroughly bodied Hendrix that I do not know what to make of the win.  The Bears did get a lot of young players on the field so that was good.

Do keep an eye out for Fred Ware among others.

I would love to say we are better, but I am from the Show Me State so I need a few more games.

[Gregory Sager]

Well we can certainly disagree and I have no problem with that. You might be the only person who thinks HansenRatings is no good.

I never said that.

This is what I said:

The HansenRatings don't really tell us anything at this point

Note the emphasis. Like Massey and every other sports rating service, HansenRankings is dealing with a very limited database for comparison's sake this early in the season.

I think his accuracy has been much more predictable than yours or mine.

I have no complaints about it at all. I simply don't think it's worth paying attention to this early, much less using it as the basis for an argument.

CCIW is better in my view. Maybe not dramatically, but certainly better overall. Millikin, Augie, WashU, IWU, all better than a year ago. I have seen all those games.

Well, at least I've gotten you to move the goalposts a little by backing away from the adjective "dramatically."

Elmhurst was ranked 188th. I am not gonna argue if they should be 200th or 170th. Doesn't matter.

How does it not matter, USee? Need I remind you that Elmhurst is every bit as much a part of CCIW football as is your alma mater? If you're going to compare the entire league across seasons, then Elmhurst's status matters just as much as does that of North Central or Wheaton.

NPU, should be better than they showed last week.

And there you're getting into the speculation game rather than going by the (admittedly limited) hard evidence already in hand.

Augie will end up 6-4 is my guess. IWU is more difficulty (I said 7-3) with their QB situation so may have to reconsider them in the coming weeks.

... neither of which really says anything about the CCIW being better or worse, since somebody in the CCIW's gotta win and somebody in the CCIW's gotta lose every single football game played between now and mid-November.

So if it's just your and my subjective view that is in opposition, I am perfectly comfortable with my view.

As am I. Which is OK, since a polite "agree to disagree" is essentially my functional status quo with Wheaton alumni on any number of things aside from the Most Important Thing.

[Next Man Up]

So is there general agreement that Elmhurst is truly abominable, and almost assuredly sits on the bottom rung of the CCIW FB ladder?
If so, presuming the choice is either NPU or Carthage, who occupies the next step up?

[USee]

Sager, you and I are using limited early season data just like HansenRatings.  So if his conclusions are worthless so are ours.  I would argue he is more accurate than any subjective analysis at this point.  So if you throw him out, you're out too. 

I don't buy it.

And regarding Elmhurst, just like you didn't mention Wheaton going from 4th to 12th, I don't think Elmhurst 188th or 200th makes much difference. I'm not ignoring them as a conference member I just don't think 10-20 spots changes the analysis in any meaningful way so you telling me they are worse than last year means very little and you can't quantify it any better than HansenRatings. Arguably worse.

[Thunderdome21]

Well we can certainly disagree and I have no problem with that. You might be the only person who thinks HansenRatings is no good. I think his accuracy has been much more predictable than yours or mine. CCIW is better in my view. Maybe not dramatically, but certainly better overall. Millikin, Augie, WashU, IWU, all better than a year ago. I have seen all those games.

Elmhurst was ranked 188th. I am not gonna argue if they should be 200th or 170th. Doesn't matter. NPU, should be better than they showed last week. Augie will end up 6-4 is my guess. IWU is more difficulty (I said 7-3) with their QB situation so may have to reconsider them in the coming weeks.

So if it's just your and my subjective view that is in opposition, I am perfectly comfortable with my view.

Strictly from the eye test, I think the HansenRatings are fairly accurate from my point of view, but I think you had IWU too high as a 7-3 team, even if their 1st string QB hadn't been injured. I think they will be better than 3-7, but more of a 5-5 team. With an entirely new starting offensive line from last year and only 2 of these O-line starters were on last year's 2-deep, that's going to be a tall order for them when they play really good D-lines such as North Central and Wheaton.   

And on the Defense, IWU starts 8 sophomores. Some of them do have some athletic ability and some starting experience from last year, but it's still asking a lot when you're depending on mostly 19 and 20 year olds to go against mostly 22 and 23 year olds when they play a team like Wheaton. I think IWU is a year away from being at that 7-3 team that Wash U has been for the past few seasons.   

[Gregory Sager]

Sager, you and I are using limited early season data just like HansenRatings.  So if his conclusions are worthless so are ours.  I would argue he is more accurate than any subjective analysis at this point.  So if you throw him out, you're out too. 

No, I don't buy that. I'm making assessments using both the eye test and the stats. And what I've seen is not the grand sweep forward in ability level leaguewide that you've been predicting.

I don't buy it.

And regarding Elmhurst, just like you didn't mention Wheaton going from 4th to 12th, I don't think Elmhurst 188th or 200th makes much difference. I'm not ignoring them as a conference member I just don't think 10-20 spots changes the analysis in any meaningful way so you telling me they are worse than last year means very little and you can't quantify it any better than HansenRatings. Arguably worse.

I'm not trying to quantify Elmhurst at all, because, as I took pains to point out, UWRF did not play well by their own standards at Langhorst ten days ago. I'll bet all the corn in Manito that the team that took St. John's down to the wire in Collegeville last Saturday is closer to who the Falcons turn out to be this season than the team that comparatively sleepwalked at Elmhurst ... to a 63-0 victory. That, as much as anything, speaks volumes to me about how bad Elmhurst is.

(And, incidentally, that's not a subject that I'm happy dwelling upon. I don't like ragging on Elmhurst like this. I've seen too much bad North Park football over the years not to empathize with another CCIW team that finds itself going over Niagara Falls in a wooden barrel. But it is what it is.)

[USee]

Sager, you and I are using limited early season data just like HansenRatings.  So if his conclusions are worthless so are ours.  I would argue he is more accurate than any subjective analysis at this point.  So if you throw him out, you're out too. 

No, I don't buy that. I'm making assessments using both the eye test and the stats. And what I've seen is not the grand sweep forward in ability level leaguewide that you've been predicting.

I don't buy it.

And regarding Elmhurst, just like you didn't mention Wheaton going from 4th to 12th, I don't think Elmhurst 188th or 200th makes much difference. I'm not ignoring them as a conference member I just don't think 10-20 spots changes the analysis in any meaningful way so you telling me they are worse than last year means very little and you can't quantify it any better than HansenRatings. Arguably worse.

I'm not trying to quantify Elmhurst at all, because, as I took pains to point out, UWRF did not play well by their own standards at Langhorst ten days ago. I'll bet all the corn in Manito that the team that took St. John's down to the wire in Collegeville last Saturday is closer to who the Falcons turn out to be this season than the team that comparatively sleepwalked at Elmhurst ... to a 63-0 victory. That, as much as anything, speaks volumes to me about how bad Elmhurst is.

(And, incidentally, that's not a subject that I'm happy dwelling upon. I don't like ragging on Elmhurst like this. I've seen too much bad North Park football over the years not to empathize with another CCIW team that finds itself going over Niagara Falls in a wooden barrel. But it is what it is.)

To be fair I made all of my predictions prior to ever seeing a single snap. I used words like "I expect" and "they should be" Based on my analysis of what was available and my experience watching 30+ yrs of CCIW football.  You made all your comments after seeing everyone play (with considerable viewing experience as well). I did predict Elmhurst to be 0-10 this year. Not sure how much worse you wanted me to say they can be. 

[USee]

Well we can certainly disagree and I have no problem with that. You might be the only person who thinks HansenRatings is no good. I think his accuracy has been much more predictable than yours or mine. CCIW is better in my view. Maybe not dramatically, but certainly better overall. Millikin, Augie, WashU, IWU, all better than a year ago. I have seen all those games.

Elmhurst was ranked 188th. I am not gonna argue if they should be 200th or 170th. Doesn't matter. NPU, should be better than they showed last week. Augie will end up 6-4 is my guess. IWU is more difficulty (I said 7-3) with their QB situation so may have to reconsider them in the coming weeks.

So if it's just your and my subjective view that is in opposition, I am perfectly comfortable with my view.

Strictly from the eye test, I think the HansenRatings are fairly accurate from my point of view, but I think you had IWU too high as a 7-3 team, even if their 1st string QB hadn't been injured. I think they will be better than 3-7, but more of a 5-5 team. With an entirely new starting offensive line from last year and only 2 of these O-line starters were on last year's 2-deep, that's going to be a tall order for them when they play really good D-lines such as North Central and Wheaton.   

And on the Defense, IWU starts 8 sophomores. Some of them do have some athletic ability and some starting experience from last year, but it's still asking a lot when you're depending on mostly 19 and 20 year olds to go against mostly 22 and 23 year olds when they play a team like Wheaton. I think IWU is a year away from being at that 7-3 team that Wash U has been for the past few seasons.

I did say my prediction on IWU was bold and it was the one prediction that wasn't fully supported by analysis. I will say that IWU has a lot more experience on defense than Wheaton does and IWU has 20 seniors and 19 juniors. 5 of their defensive starters played a lot last year to go along with their 4 returning starters. Conor Murphy can handle himself against any CCIW line. The real question with IWU was with their OL, which is all young and new but that's Norm's specialty and he has never had a bad offensive line that I remember. The QB situation is a definite curveball so they may struggle this week to score.

[WUPHF]

Saturday cannot get here fast enough.

[Next Man Up]

North Central is planning an inhospitable homecoming for 2 local products who will be returning to town this Saturday with their Carthage teammates. Senior Omarr Roberts and Junior Ryan Larkin, who start at left guard and right tackle respectively for the Red Men, err Firebirds, both played their high school football at Naperville Central, just one mile down the street from Benedetti-Wehrli Stadium.

[cciwman]

North Central is planning an inhospitable homecoming for 2 local products who will be returning to town this Saturday with their Carthage teammates. Senior Omarr Roberts and Junior Ryan Larkin, who start at left guard and right tackle respectively for the Red Men, err Firebirds, both played their high school football at Naperville Central, just one mile down the street from Benedetti-Wehrli Stadium.

Actually NMU, the game is being played in Kenosha again.  This is the third time NC has played up there in the past four seasons.  Really odd scheduling in the CCIW without consistent rotation of home and away.  Cards haven't played in Augustana since 2018 I believe.

[Next Man Up]

North Central is planning an inhospitable homecoming for 2 local products who will be returning to town this Saturday with their Carthage teammates. Senior Omarr Roberts and Junior Ryan Larkin, who start at left guard and right tackle respectively for the Red Men, err Firebirds, both played their high school football at Naperville Central, just one mile down the street from Benedetti-Wehrli Stadium.

Actually NMU, the game is being played in Kenosha again.  This is the third time NC has played up there in the past four seasons.  Really odd scheduling in the CCIW without consistent rotation of home and away.  Cards haven't played in Augustana since 2018 I believe.

Of course you're right, cciwman. A check mark for me in the El Stupido column. 
So anxious for the first home game I got a week ahead of myself.
I believe many of us have noticed this "irregular" rotation of games in the past, and that we've had discussions regarding the reasoning behind this type of scheduling.
Even though the game is in Kenosha, the Cardinals shouldn't have much trouble with the Carthaginians.

[USee]

Big part of scheduling is the covid year. NCC would have hosted Carthage that year. So it's really been in Kenosha 3 of last 5 years and on rotation. Not that irregular.