FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[WUPHF]

Wash U had opportunities.  They were in the red zone a couple of times and turned the ball over on a forced fumble that was mentioned on the Podcast and an interception on an overthrow.  I thought they had some success early on running the football and got away from that.  The penalty on the fake punt they successfully ran was huge.  I can see why they have put up a bunch of points.  They have some very good WR's and the RB is good. QB did a good job of getting the ball to the open receiver.

Thanks for saying this.

I am not one of those have to play a tough schedule to be ready for tough teams guys, but North Central is infinitely better than every other team the Bears have played this season.

I am going to wait to the Wheaton game before I agree to the kids fairy tale analogy.

[USee]

I can tell you from my observations WashU and Wheaton are much closer together than NCC and the next best team. I think Wheaton will have their hands full in St Louis next Saturday.

[wally_wabash]

The orginal post I was responding to was the idea that the CCIW is somewhow top heavy because of the WashU v NCC result. I think losing to the #1 team in the country and keeping them at half of their usual point output is about what I expected. I didn't expect WashU's up tempo, veteran offense to get shutout, even against a top 10 national defense. But I thought the result would be a 2-3 score victory. It certainly isn't an indication of the CCIW's overall ability IMO.

Yeah, the most impressive part of Saturday's game in St. Louis was the 0 in 31-0.  Didn't expect the Bears to get completely short circuited the way they did.

Wash U had opportunities.  They were in the red zone a couple of times and turned the ball over on a forced fumble that was mentioned on the Podcast and an interception on an overthrow.  I thought they had some success early on running the football and got away from that.  The penalty on the fake punt they successfully ran was huge.  I can see why they have put up a bunch of points.  They have some very good WR's and the RB is good. QB did a good job of getting the ball to the open receiver.

Oh, all the credit in the world to WashU for going for it.  Against North Central right now, they absolutely shot their shot and I think you (you being 98% of the division) have to swing for the fences if you're going to beat them. 

My comment wasn't meant to imply that WashU is mid, but that North Central is really, really good and has put a ton of daylight between themselves and the next best teams in the CCIW.  Teams (WashU and Wheaton) that, IMO, could absolutely win a round in the tournament. 

[Next Man Up]

After watching NCC play WashU and Wheaton I don't think there is much doubt that both the Bears and Thunder would absolutely stand a decent chance of winning a playoff (or bowl?) game.

[kiko]

A bit off-topic, but somewhat CCIW-related as I was trying to get a feel for the chances of a two-loss team getting a Pool C bid this year.   (I think an 8-1 WashU would be very difficult to keep out.)  So I took a look at the situation in the WIAC today to see what their likely playoff locks and candidates look like, as a two-loss team there probably gets more consideration than one elsewhere all other things being equal.

And, wow.  Things there are knotted up tighter than an eight-year-old's shoelaces.  And IDK if anyone in the country will have played a more difficult schedule than Platteville.

[hazzben]

A bit off-topic, but somewhat CCIW-related as I was trying to get a feel for the chances of a two-loss team getting a Pool C bid this year.   (I think an 8-1 WashU would be very difficult to keep out.)  So I took a look at the situation in the WIAC today to see what their likely playoff locks and candidates look like, as a two-loss team there probably gets more consideration than one elsewhere all other things being equal.

And, wow.  Things there are knotted up tighter than an eight-year-old's shoelaces.  And IDK if anyone in the country will have played a more difficult schedule than Platteville.

FWIW, Logan Hansen's model "Projected Final SOS":

1. Hope - 0.6499
2. SJU - 0.6490
3. Concordia Morehoead - 0.6266
4. Bethel - 0.6099
5. UWW - 0.6070
6. Alfred - 0.5997
7. Whitworth - 0.5970
8. UWP - 0.5956
9. Trine - 0.5859
10. UWEC - 0.5803

I think the Bethel/SJU loser might have a shot at getting in with 2 losses given the monster SOS numbers, and solid RRO criteria. Without doing a deep dive into the national picture, Wash U would have a shot, but has a pretty average predicted final SOS @ 0.5012 and ranked 115.

They'd be a team very capable of winning a game or two in the tourney, but there's just a lot of football left (including their game against Wheaton) before we know what the picture for Pool C really looks like.

[kiko]

Today's Games:

Augustana 24, Illinois Wesleyan 21 in Practically Iowa
Carroll 59, Carthage 14 at No Stinkin' FIBs Here Field
North Central 59, North Park 0 at Burlington Northern Metra Line Field
WashU 49, Elmhurst 6 at That Other Burlington Northern Metra Line Field
Wheaton 69, Millikin 3 at Union Pacific West Metra Line Field

Big game next Saturday in St. Louis.

[lmitzel]

North Central 59, North Park 0 at Burlington Northern Metra Line Field

That's a school record fourth consecutive shutout, by the way.

NCC has not allowed a point in 245-plus minutes of game action; last score they allowed was that Bowers to Bonga connection that made it 27-20 NCC late in the Little Brass Bell game.

[Stagg Again!!]

Is this the week that all of the three and four loss WIAC teams (UWF, UWP, and UWO) fall out of the Top 25 to make way for a one loss team from the CCIW?  I have all day for the WIAC conference and do believe that UWW and UWL should/will get into the tournament (unless there is another wacky WIAC weekend!).  That being said, WashU should NOT have fallen out of the Top 25 after last week's impressive outing against the #1 team in the country.  I think if you look at their body of work and outcomes against Top 25 common opponents, a case could be made that Wash U should be in the Top 15 at or above Wheaton in the polls.  This will, of course, shake itself out on Saturday in STL... but, if Wash U "upsets" WC, I would suggest that the Bears may well be a Top 12 team with a lock on a second playoff spot for the CCIW.

[GoIrish7]

North Central 59, North Park 0 at Burlington Northern Metra Line Field

That's a school record fourth consecutive shutout, by the way.

NCC has not allowed a point in 245-plus minutes of game action; last score they allowed was that Bowers to Bonga connection that made it 27-20 NCC late in the Little Brass Bell game.

Would love to see Shane Dierking get a HC opportunity!

[WUPHF]

Is this the week that all of the three and four loss WIAC teams (UWF, UWP, and UWO) fall out of the Top 25 to make way for a one loss team from the CCIW? 

Why yes it is...

Also, separately, the rulebook and the officials need to do even more to stop needless helmet to helmet hits.

[kiko]

It's pretty remarkable that, this deep into the season, six teams from that eight team conference are receiving T25 votes.  And IMO, if we are looking beyond record and assessing who is likely to win a matchup between, say, Oshkosh and Albion, you can make a case that all six WIAC teams belong in the top 25.

[wally_wabash]

It's pretty remarkable that, this deep into the season, six teams from that eight team conference are receiving T25 votes.  And IMO, if we are looking beyond record and assessing who is likely to win a matchup between, say, Oshkosh and Albion, you can make a case that all six WIAC teams belong in the top 25.

This is the struggle voters have.  Lots of commotion last week about five ranked WIACs, two of them with three losses (though both had a D2 loss so mileage varies on that). But River Falls beats everybody not ranked in the top 25 by 50.  Are voters supposed to hold their nose and pretend that River Falls or Oshkosh wouldn't beat MSJ by whatever margin they were comfortable winning by?  It's tricky. 

It looks like three losses in the division is the line of demarcation for most voters. 

[79jaybird]

Today's Games:

Augustana 24, Illinois Wesleyan 21 in Practically Iowa
Carroll 59, Carthage 14 at No Stinkin' FIBs Here Field
North Central 59, North Park 0 at Burlington Northern Metra Line Field
WashU 49, Elmhurst 6 at That Other Burlington Northern Metra Line Field
Wheaton 69, Millikin 3 at Union Pacific West Metra Line Field

Big game next Saturday in St. Louis.

*Elmhurst is on the ex C&NW and now UPRR rail line.    The train nerd in me will give you the short brief synopsis.
The line went from Proviso Yard in Northlake all the way to Council Bluffs & North Platte NE, where it connected with the UPRR who took traffic west to CA.

I know the season is winding down and it could be difficult for Elmhurst to muster up some effort, however I think it is imperative the Jays continue to build up these last few weeks.  If anything try to get some consistency and have some good vibes as you enter the offseason.   

[Next Man Up]

If Elmhurst is to garner a victory this season it looks like this Saturday at North Park is their chance. Massey gives the Jays a 40% chance of winning, and predicts a score of NPU 28, EU 24.