FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[OLCoach99]

Thorne has ZERO interest in Elmhurst University...I can promise you that.

[NCC2010]

Yea, my experience is that coaches don't work that way. You don't wait to be good at something until you need it. NCC runs the ball because that's who they are, 70% run. They are gonna do that for 4 quarters. There are at least 2 teams left that MAY be able to challenge that philosophy, and at that point it will be too late to "roll out the passing game". They don't pass more because they aren't that good at it, in my opinion. I would be willing to bet LL completion % is close to 50% on straight drop backs and closer to 70-75% on RPO's and straight play action pass.

Lehnen is super effective in play action, but he is not very adept at reading defenses and locks in on receivers, at which point he isn't very accurate. Contrast that with Rutter, who was exceptional at reading defenses and that skill was regularly used even though they had Greenfield and were 60% run in those years.

I'm not asking for a more even split, I'm asking for a few % of that 30% to be deep shots to Hardy.

Sorry, I was replying to the suggestion that part of the playbook wasn't in use, that's not the case at this point in the season. I agree with you, deep shots to Hardy are a big part of the plan. Problem is CMU was playing a safety over the top of Hardy most of the day from what I could see. Most teams who do that can't hold up against the run, but CMU had some studs that matched up pretty well much of the game. NCC's defense kept giving the ball back to the offense  and that led to the Tartan defense being on the field too long (NCC ran 60 plays to CMU's 48). The NCC defense is really good.

I know someone mentioned it before but the Cards lack of depth remaining at WR is super concerning.  Being down 3 of the top WRs on the team (Lombardi, Paradee, Braithwaite) is not ideal heading into these next couple of matchups.  I'm surprised some of the younger guys haven't seen the field more, or the coaches haven't considered possibly moving a guy like Sacco out to receiver (Rummel move was obviously necessary).  But it felt like against CM there were usually only 2 WRs on the field and TE Wolf was playing flexed out at WR way more than I've seen before.  Might have been a matchup thing, but i think we will almost certainly have to spread out and throw it eventually these playoffs.  I can see a team like UMHB or Bethel loading the box and doubling Hardy, leaving the other WRs 1 on 1 and i am not sure if we have the guys to take advantage of those matchups.  Will be very important for NCC to play with a lead these next few games as we are not built to come from behind from what i have seen the 2nd half of the season with all these WR injuries.

[Next Man Up]

Here's the preview for Saturday's NCC/LFC game...

https://northcentralcardinals.com/news/2022/11/16/football-first-round-postseason-preview.aspx

It should be noted, hidden in the weeds, that Nic Rummell, who has started every game at cornerback in 2021 (including  the Stagg Bowl) after moving over from WR, is listed (and has been playing) back at WR for the Cardinals. Several other WR's who had been playing are not listed on the two deep. This won't matter until later in the playoffs, but the Cardinal's weakness, should anyone have the ability to exploit it, is razor thin depth at WR.

Simple gameplan against NCC:  stop the run (they run it 70% of the time) and get them into 2nd/3rd and long and then double DeAngelo Hardy (with a spy on Luke Lehnen). Mt Union has had that gameplan the last two years and has come in with a top 5 defense both times while yielding less than 50 yds a game on the ground. The result? 2021: 52 rush for 293 yds and 2019: 42 Rush for 177 yds.

That's who NCC is: They are going to run it at you for 4 quarters  and dare you to beat them.  Since the start of the 2019 season, only 2 teams have been able to do it.

"Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." -Mike Tyson

Regarding the Cardinals passing game, I have every confidence in Luke Lehnen. However, the thing I believe is imperative in order for the passing game to reach its full potential and become a truly effective weapon is for a second WR to step forward and become a major target/threat. As great as he is, Hardy can't do it all. He has about 2.5 times the number of catches than the second leading active wide receiver, and also around 2.5 as much yardage. He is always going to be defended by the opponent's top cover guy, and sometimes doubled. This will only work for so long before that aspect of the offense will be neutralized. So the question for a passing attack to become a true weapon for the Cards is "Who is going to be the Blake Williams of this team"?

Like I said earlier, who is going to step up into the #2 WR spot in support of/for Hardy, who himself missed a couple of games. One of the two other original starting WRs, Joey Lombardi, was lost for the season after about the 3rd game, and the third WR, Peter Braithwaite, was lost shortly thereafter.
Nic Rummell, mentioned above by USee, had a great catch vs. Augie last Saturday as did Hardy.

Yea, my experience is that coaches don't work that way. You don't wait to be good at something until you need it. NCC runs the ball because that's who they are, 70% run. They are gonna do that for 4 quarters. There are at least 2 teams left that MAY be able to challenge that philosophy, and at that point it will be too late to "roll out the passing game". They don't pass more because they aren't that good at it, in my opinion. I would be willing to bet LL completion % is close to 50% on straight drop backs and closer to 70-75% on RPO's and straight play action pass.

Lehnen is super effective in play action, but he is not very adept at reading defenses and locks in on receivers, at which point he isn't very accurate. Contrast that with Rutter, who was exceptional at reading defenses and that skill was regularly used even though they had Greenfield and were 60% run in those years.

I'm not asking for a more even split, I'm asking for a few % of that 30% to be deep shots to Hardy.

Sorry, I was replying to the suggestion that part of the playbook wasn't in use, that's not the case at this point in the season. I agree with you, deep shots to Hardy are a big part of the plan. Problem is CMU was playing a safety over the top of Hardy most of the day from what I could see. Most teams who do that can't hold up against the run, but CMU had some studs that matched up pretty well much of the game. NCC's defense kept giving the ball back to the offense  and that led to the Tartan defense being on the field too long (NCC ran 60 plays to CMU's 48). The NCC defense is really good.

I know someone mentioned it before but the Cards lack of depth remaining at WR is super concerning.  Being down 3 of the top WRs on the team (Lombardi, Paradee, Braithwaite) is not ideal heading into these next couple of matchups.  I'm surprised some of the younger guys haven't seen the field more, or the coaches haven't considered possibly moving a guy like Sacco out to receiver (Rummel move was obviously necessary).  But it felt like against CM there were usually only 2 WRs on the field and TE Wolf was playing flexed out at WR way more than I've seen before.  Might have been a matchup thing, but i think we will almost certainly have to spread out and throw it eventually these playoffs.  I can see a team like UMHB or Bethel loading the box and doubling Hardy, leaving the other WRs 1 on 1 and i am not sure if we have the guys to take advantage of those matchups.  Will be very important for NCC to play with a lead these next few games as we are not built to come from behind from what i have seen the 2nd half of the season with all these WR injuries.

Like I said a couple of weeks ago when the playoffs started, the Cardinals lack of depth at WR is probably the  number one concern. Another question is as long as you're going to have someone in a wideout position, perhaps it would be a good idea to target him more than once a game so the defense at least has the idea in its mind that whoever it is, we need to pay some attention to this guy. Also, perhaps another burner isn't necessarily what's needed, but rather a good third down, over-the-middle guy. But whether it be a fly guy or a third down type, the question that remains is who is it going to be as has been said before—Hardy can't do it all.

[SpartanHouse4]

Thorne has ZERO interest in Elmhurst University...I can promise you that.

I'm sure he doesn't but Elmhurst should at least make the call.

Just read that Thorne didn't call plays at WMU the second half of the year.

[79jaybird]

I don't think Thorne would want to come to Elmhurst (now) because A)  He  would have to compete on and off the field with kin  B) Elmhurst is in complete rebuild mode and would he want to invest the necessary time to start from basically scratch etc.  C) The Thorne name has luster in Naperville and don't know if he'd want to tarnish this going to Elmhurst (or any other CCIW institution).

But IMO-  I think a person like Thorne's mold WOULD BE a good fit for Elmhurst and their current conditions.   Either a established coach looking for a challenge (and it would be a great challenge)  or perhaps a coach like Mike Leonard at Franklin a few years back, who has proven to be a winner, and would like to join the CCIW dances.   

[SpartanHouse4]

FWIW, his family still lives in Naperville. What other job allows him to come back home?

[Next Man Up]

FWIW, his family still lives in Naperville. What other job allows him to come back home?

Still don't think it's enough reason to stir any interest in the EU position.

[robertgoulet]

Lester will get a D1 job somewhere else. Don't know why Thorne wouldn't wait and see where and if he'd be brought along.

[USee]

Lester will get a D1 job somewhere else. Don't know why Thorne wouldn't wait and see where and if he'd be brought along.

Probably not a head job but certainly could be a coordinator. And THorne might be a candidate to come along as a position coach. But he could also have his pick of D3 jobs if he wants to run the show again.

[bleedpurple]

Lester will get a D1 job somewhere else. Don't know why Thorne wouldn't wait and see where and if he'd be brought along.

Probably not a head job but certainly could be a coordinator. And THorne might be a candidate to come along as a position coach. But he could also have his pick of D3 jobs if he wants to run the show again.

Even one or two within a couple of hours of Naperville.

[Next Man Up]

Lester will get a D1 job somewhere else. Don't know why Thorne wouldn't wait and see where and if he'd be brought along.

Probably not a head job but certainly could be a coordinator. And THorne might be a candidate to come along as a position coach. But he could also have his pick of D3 jobs if he wants to run the show again.

Even one or two within a couple of hours of Naperville.

NO, not that one.   

[USee]

Lester will get a D1 job somewhere else. Don't know why Thorne wouldn't wait and see where and if he'd be brought along.

Probably not a head job but certainly could be a coordinator. And THorne might be a candidate to come along as a position coach. But he could also have his pick of D3 jobs if he wants to run the show again.

Even one or two within a couple of hours of Naperville.

103 miles actually

[USee]

FWIW, The idea that defense wins championships is rooted in history. In the last 15 years the team that has won the national championship has had a scoring defense ranked in the top 5 nationally every year except two years. In both of those years the winning team had an offense ranked in the top 3 (NCC in 2019 #2 OFF, #27 Def; UWW in 2013 #3 OFF, #70 DEF). I think it's really hard to win the title without a top ranked defense.

The rankings of the remaining teams by scoring defense (scoring offense) is:

North Central: 1 (1)
Mt Union: 2 (3)
Wartburg: 3 (16)
Delaware Valley: 6 (65)
MHB: 21 (8)
Ithaca: 13 (21)
Aurora: 26 (2)
Bethel: 57 (55)

If History is any guide, the odds on favorite's to play for the title are NCC V UMU. Wartburg and Aurora have a punchers chance.

[SpartanHouse4]

Probably not a head job but certainly could be a coordinator. And THorne might be a candidate to come along as a position coach. But he could also have his pick of D3 jobs if he wants to run the show again.

Well Lester did take away play calling duties from Thorne this year so it's not a given Lester would bring Thorne with him where ever he ends up.

I think Thorne is a tremendous HC and wants to get back doing that.

[hazzben]

FWIW, The idea that defense wins championships is rooted in history. In the last 15 years the team that has won the national championship has had a scoring defense ranked in the top 5 nationally every year except two years. In both of those years the winning team had an offense ranked in the top 3 (NCC in 2019 #2 OFF, #27 Def; UWW in 2013 #3 OFF, #70 DEF). I think it's really hard to win the title without a top ranked defense.

The rankings of the remaining teams by scoring defense (scoring offense) is:

North Central: 1 (1) - .530
Mt Union: 2 (3) - .498
Wartburg: 3 (16) - .524
Delaware Valley: 6 (65) - .572
MHB: 21 (8) - .509
Ithaca: 13 (21) - .562
Aurora: 26 (2) - .490
Bethel: 57 (55) - .605

If History is any guide, the odds on favorite's to play for the title are NCC V UMU. Wartburg and Aurora have a punchers chance.

Added SOS numbers for additional context. I tend to agree though USee, being very good in both phases, or elite in one are highly predictive. I'm fairly certain the SOS numbers don't reflect playoff games. Assuming you used the NCAA's site, the Scoring O/D numbers do reflect playoff games, which skews the SOS a bit. Team like Wartburg and Bethel, that have faced stiffer comp for two weeks, would have an even more impressive SOS bump.

The two that jump out to me are NCC and Wartburg. They rank highly in both scoring categories, and faced better comp in the regular season than say, Aurora and Mount. Bethel's numbers don't look great, but the subtext there is w/ and w/o a healthy Roste, and the toughest schedule by a pretty wide margin. I'm encouraged by how they faired against Linfield, who have the #5 Scoring O and #19 Scoring D, even after last weeks result.

Taking a step back though, all of these teams have pretty strong stats and/or SOS numbers. Should mean we get some good games this weekend.