FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[USee]

FWIW, The idea that defense wins championships is rooted in history. In the last 15 years the team that has won the national championship has had a scoring defense ranked in the top 5 nationally every year except two years. In both of those years the winning team had an offense ranked in the top 3 (NCC in 2019 #2 OFF, #27 Def; UWW in 2013 #3 OFF, #70 DEF). I think it's really hard to win the title without a top ranked defense.

The rankings of the remaining teams by scoring defense (scoring offense) is:

North Central: 1 (1) - .530
Mt Union: 2 (3) - .498
Wartburg: 3 (16) - .524
Delaware Valley: 6 (65) - .572
MHB: 21 (8) - .509
Ithaca: 13 (21) - .562
Aurora: 26 (2) - .490
Bethel: 57 (55) - .605

If History is any guide, the odds on favorite's to play for the title are NCC V UMU. Wartburg and Aurora have a punchers chance.

Added SOS numbers for additional context. I tend to agree though USee, being very good in both phases, or elite in one are highly predictive. I'm fairly certain the SOS numbers don't reflect playoff games. Assuming you used the NCAA's site, the Scoring O/D numbers do reflect playoff games, which skews the SOS a bit. Team like Wartburg and Bethel, that have faced stiffer comp for two weeks, would have an even more impressive SOS bump.

The two that jump out to me are NCC and Wartburg. They rank highly in both scoring categories, and faced better comp in the regular season than say, Aurora and Mount. Bethel's numbers don't look great, but the subtext there is w/ and w/o a healthy Roste, and the toughest schedule by a pretty wide margin. I'm encouraged by how they faired against Linfield, who have the #5 Scoring O and #19 Scoring D, even after last weeks result.

Taking a step back though, all of these teams have pretty strong stats and/or SOS numbers. Should mean we get some good games this weekend.

Good context Hazz! I would point out that Bethel had Roste in 10.25 of 12 games this year. And their defense has been ranked #100 nationally and only 4th in the MIAC. The offense may be trending higher with a healthier Roste but not likely top 5. I think Bethel will struggle to get to the title game given their profile and their current path. I like Wartburg  a lot though!

And while top ranked defenses (and offenses) get exposed during the playoffs all the time in part because of (lack of) SOS, the championship defenses are ranked top 5 all year and continue to be during the playoffs. It's never been done where a team isn't top 5 in defense (or offense) and all of a sudden played their way to the title. But never is a long time......

[hazzben]

PLU (4th play of the game), UWP, Augs (Injured 2nd Q) are games where Roste didn't play. SJU he was a shell of himself following the Augsburg injury and was out before the halftime. I'd put it more at 8.5 games with a healthy version of Roste. But your point stands about where they rank, and I'm channeling my inner Gregory Sager with this hair splitting  . Logan Hansen's model for scores and likely outcome looked ugly for Bethel in the first two rounds as well:

Wheaton - 33.5 Bethel - 22.7 ... 75% likelihood of Wheaton Win.
Linfield - 37.4 Bethel - 23.1 ... 82% likelihood of w Linfield Win.

Logan's model is usually very accurate, or at least in the ballpark. I think the two things that skew it are Roste's presence/health, and Bethel's penchant for playing incredibly mistake free football. They don't turn the ball over, give up very few sacks, and are rarely penalized. To your point, even with a healthy Roste, it's not like this is a Top 5 offense. And the complimentary football doesn't make it a Top 5 D either. It's really the poise factor, and being highly disciplined, that has allowed them to punch above their weight statistically. As expected, their worst turnover games were games Roste wasn't healthy enough to finish or didn't play in.

The million dollar question is, can they continue to play almost totally mistake free (i.e. no turnovers or penalties vs. Linfield) as the competition continues to increase. The margin for Mount, NCC, UMHB or Wartburg to overcome mistakes is much much greater than it is for a team like Bethel. Case in point, Wartburg had some turnovers and penalties against SJU, but their elite D allowed them to weather the storm, and also force SJU into offsetting turnovers as well. It's what makes the Aurora O v. Wart D such an intriguing matchup. But the health of Wart's QB skews the stat of their exceptional, but not elite scoring O. They likely need a lot of the Bethel mistake free formula to overcome the injury component.

Scoring O usually correlates to explosiveness in an offense. If you aren't going to be explosive, you need be methodical and mistake free. That gets a lot tougher to pull off with ever round.

[USee]

PLU (4th play of the game), UWP, Augs (Injured 2nd Q) are games where Roste didn't play. SJU he was a shell of himself following the Augsburg injury and was out before the halftime. I'd put it more at 8.5 games with a healthy version of Roste. But your point stands about where they rank, and I'm channeling my inner Gregory Sager with this hair splitting  . Logan Hansen's model for scores and likely outcome looked ugly for Bethel in the first two rounds as well:

Wheaton - 33.5 Bethel - 22.7 ... 75% likelihood of Wheaton Win.
Linfield - 37.4 Bethel - 23.1 ... 82% likelihood of w Linfield Win.

Logan's model is usually very accurate, or at least in the ballpark. I think the two things that skew it are Roste's presence/health, and Bethel's penchant for playing incredibly mistake free football. They don't turn the ball over, give up very few sacks, and are rarely penalized. To your point, even with a healthy Roste, it's not like this is a Top 5 offense. And the complimentary football doesn't make it a Top 5 D either. It's really the poise factor, and being highly disciplined, that has allowed them to punch above their weight statistically. As expected, their worst turnover games were games Roste wasn't healthy enough to finish or didn't play in.

The million dollar question is, can they continue to play almost totally mistake free (i.e. no turnovers or penalties vs. Linfield) as the competition continues to increase. The margin for Mount, NCC, UMHB or Wartburg to overcome mistakes is much much greater than it is for a team like Bethel. Case in point, Wartburg had some turnovers and penalties against SJU, but their elite D allowed them to weather the storm, and also force SJU into offsetting turnovers as well. It's what makes the Aurora O v. Wart D such an intriguing matchup. But the health of Wart's QB skews the stat of their exceptional, but not elite scoring O. They likely need a lot of the Bethel mistake free formula to overcome the injury component.

Scoring O usually correlates to explosiveness in an offense. If you aren't going to be explosive, you need be methodical and mistake free. That gets a lot tougher to pull off with ever round.

I agree with you, mistake free is the key (can we make Tshirts?). If Wheaton doesn't turn it over 2x (which they hadn't done much all season either) Logan might have been right 2 weeks ago. But Bethel has lived on playing mistake free and I expect it this weekend. MHB has a similar profile but sports a much higher quality defense and high level offensive talent.

"Mistake Free is the Key"
-Bethel Football

[WUPHF]

Well Lester did take away play calling duties from Thorne this year so it's not a given Lester would bring Thorne with him where ever he ends up.

But that is not uncommon among coaches who feel under the gun and want to appear responsive to the concerns.  That might not be a reflection on their relationship, though I doubt Thorne waits around for the dust to settle.

[Gregory Sager]

I'm channeling my inner Gregory Sager

You should check with your HMO or PPO to see if you're covered for surgery to remove that.

[hazzben]

I'm channeling my inner Gregory Sager

You should check with your HMO or PPO to see if you're covered for surgery to remove that.

They told me it's elective and not covered, but typically clears up by mid-December (right around when d3 football concludes, funny enough). 

[USee]

Hazz,

I hear you on Roste and one of the common refrains is "when Roste is healthy...". For kicks, I did a speculative exercise, given the information you provided on Roste's participation in games this year, to try and quantify that sentiment. What if Roste was healthy all year? By your count he was "healthy" in 8.5 games out of 12. So I took St Johns #1 through St Olaf (6 games) and then added Wheaton and Linfield playoff games (8 games total). The only games I didn't count was PLU, UWP, Augsburg and St J #2. So I took his (and the overall offense) stats for the 8 "healthy" games and then mulitplied by 1.5 to each of the numbers to extrapolate for the 4 games he wasn't healthy to try and get a full season of a healthy Roste and what that looks like.

The short answer from a Team stat perspective is that this offense would be ranked somewhere around #25 nationally for total offense (yds) and scoring offense (from #53). For Roste personally, below is a comparison of actual Roste along with "healthy" Roste. I have added in the other Gagliardi QB's for comparison. Notes:  I listed gross rush yds and the net (which includes sacks) to get a sense of the damage these guys can do with their legs;  "healthy" Roste is 12 game total while the others are just 11 game actual stats.

Braxton Plunk, Mt Union, Sr,  6-0, 180 lbs, 268-364, 41 TD's, 5 INT, 3,440 yds, 74% completions. 45 rush 185 yds (61 net), 4.1 ypc, 3 TD's

Kyle King, UMBH, SR, 6-3, 220 lbs, 202-298, 35 TD's, 4 INTs, 2,866 yds, 68% completions. 41 rush for 288 yds (224 net), 7.0 ypc, 1 TD

"Healthy" Jaron Roste, Bethel, 6-4, 220, 243-350, 27 TD's, 6 INT, 3,204 yds, 70% completions. 81 rush, 507 yds (456net), 6.2 ypc, 8 TD's

Will Bowers, Wheaton, SR, 6-2,194 lbs, 249-326, 6 INT, 32 T's, 2,829 yds, 76% completions. 71 rush for 451 yds (321 net), 6.4 ypc, 4 TD's

"Actual" Jaron Roste  Sr, 6-4, 220 lbs, 161-234 6 INT, 17 TD's, 2,159 yds and 69% completions. 54 rush for 427 yds (388 net), 7.9 ypc, 5 TD's

AJ Wingfield, Ithaca, Sr, 5-11, 180 lbs, 170-242, 17 TD's, 4 INT, 1,803 yds, 70% completions. 79 rush 359 yds (290 net), 4.5 ypc, 3 TD's


Separately, I put these QB's in somewhat of an order of highest/best stats to lowest, depending on how you value certain statistics. I think Braxton Plunk's yardage and TD's numbers jump out from the others. He has been really amazing this year among what appears to me to be a great group of QB's.

[CardsFan1988]

Hazz,

I hear you on Roste and one of the common refrains is "when Roste is healthy...". For kicks, I did a speculative exercise, given the information you provided on Roste's participation in games this year, to try and quantify that sentiment. What if Roste was healthy all year? By your count he was "healthy" in 8.5 games out of 12. So I took St Johns #1 through St Olaf (6 games) and then added Wheaton and Linfield playoff games (8 games total). The only games I didn't count was PLU, UWP, Augsburg and St J #2. So I took his (and the overall offense) stats for the 8 "healthy" games and then added 33% to each of the numbers to extrapolate for the 4 games he wasn't healthy to try and get a full season of a healthy Roste and what that looks like.

The short answer from a Team stat perspective is that this offense would still be ranked somewhere between 50-70 nationally for total offense (yds) but I suspect it would go up more dramatically in the scoring offense category (from around #56 to #30+ or so). For Roste personally, below is a comparison of actual Roste along with "healthy" Roste. I have added in the other Gagliardi QB's for comparison. Notes:  I listed gross rush yds and the net (which includes sacks) to get a sense of the damage these guys can do with their legs;  "healthy" Roste is 12 game total while the others are just 11 game actual stats.

Braxton Plunk, Mt Union, Sr,  6-0, 180 lbs, 268-364, 41 TD's, 5 INT, 3,440 yds, 74% completions. 45 rush 185 yds (61 net), 4.1 ypc, 3 TD's

Kyle King, UMBH, SR, 6-3, 220 lbs, 202-298, 35 TD's, 4 INTs, 2,866 yds, 68% completions. 41 rush for 288 yds (224 net), 7.0 ypc, 1 TD

Will Bowers, Wheaton, SR, 6-2,194 lbs, 249-326, 6 INT, 32 T's, 2,829 yds, 76% completions. 71 rush for 451 yds (321 net), 6.4 ypc, 4 TD's

"Healthy" Jaron Roste, Bethel, 6-4, 220, 216-311, 24 TD's, 5 INT, 2,847 yds, 70% completions. 72 rush, 496 yds (451net), 6.9 ypc, 7 TD's

"Actual" Jaron Roste  Sr, 6-4, 220 lbs, 161-234 6 INT, 17 TD's, 2,159 yds and 69% completions. 54 rush for 427 yds (388 net), 7.9 ypc, 5 TD's

AJ Wingfield, Ithaca, Sr, 5-11, 180 lbs, 170-242, 17 TD's, 4 INT, 1,803 yds, 70% completions. 79 rush 359 yds (290 net), 4.5 ypc, 3 TD's


Separately, I put these QB's in somewhat of an order of highest/best stats to lowest, depending on how you value certain statistics. I think Braxton Plunk's yardage and TD's numbers jump out from the others. He has been really amazing this year among what appears to me to be a great group of QB's.

NCC graduate math says you need to add 50% to the stats. If he played in 8 games and you want to proxy 4 more, you would multiply the stats by 1.5.

That's unless I'm misunderstanding the exercise, in which case interesting analysis!

[USee]

Good catch, I am not sure why I came up with the other % originally. I edited my post to reflect which makes "healthy Roste" and the Bethel offense even more potent. Point remains similar.

[Ice Bear]

Ice Bear congrats NCC on another great W today over what is a very veteran and hard working Ithaca Bomber team. Ice Bear says from what he saw he was totally impressed top to bottom with this young NCC team. Ice wishes them luck moving forward and has total respect for this excellent football program.

[hazzben]

Congrats to NCC. Wish we could have finished it out and been matching up with you next week. Our front 7 ran out of gas. Should be a great matchup up front on both sides next week!

[USee]

Congrats to NCC. Wish we could have finished it out and been matching up with you next week. Our front 7 ran out of gas. Should be a great matchup up front on both sides next week!

Well, rematch is coming. Congrats to the Cardinals. This week we will most likely see how the WR situation has developed this week.

[Next Man Up]

SEMIFINALS

Saturday 12/10/22

11:00 Mount Union @ Wartburg
  2:30 Mary Hardin-Baylor @ North Central

[kiko]

SEMIFINALS

Saturday 12/10/22

11:00 Mount Union @ Wartburg
  2:30 Mary Hardin-Baylor @ North Central

Looks like the first semi is actually in Alliance.

[Next Man Up]

SEMIFINALS

Saturday 12/10/22

11:00 Mount Union @ Wartburg
  2:30 Mary Hardin-Baylor @ North Central

Looks like the first semi is actually in Alliance.

Yes it is. I saw a bulletin on the NCAA website prior to my above post that showed the game at Wartburg, but then they posted the schedule in bracket form with MU shown as the host.