FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Ralph Turner]

NCC fans,
Looking forward to the rematch between UMHB and the Cardinals.

With respect to last year's Stagg Bowl, I imagine those games like a 2000-team, 10-round single elimination video game tournament. There is no doubt about the quality of the players.
The teams slug it out, exchanging blow after blow. The spectators are in a frenzy of excitement as to which one wins. High stakes are on the outcome.

Suddenly, one team strikes a mighty blow, and then another. There is a huge splash of CGI animation. The screen in filled with the widest of imagery. Momentum shifts. There is plenty of time left in the contest. The players on one team now want to strike another blow so they can tell their grandkids how successful they were in the world championship. And, in real time, the dutiful, loyal backup QB playing his last game even is given a chance of a lifetime to make a memory... and does. On that day, two teams left it all on the playing field. Isn't that fun, and admirable!

Anyone who has ever strapped on a helmet just wants to compete against the best. Play hard. Play fair. Enjoy the contest.

[Lindy6]

Way to go Region 5 (NCC, Wartburg and Aurora). 8-3 so far through the quarterfinals. Every region has intra-region knockout playoffs games with a guaranteed loss (and win). Region standings (Won-Loss):
Region 5 (8-3) 2 knockout games, 2 semi-finalists
Region 3 (5-4) 3 knockout games, 1 semi-finalist
Region 4 (4-3) 1 knockout game, 1 semi-finalist
Region 2 (4-6) 1 knockout game
Region 1 (3-5) 2 knockout games
Region 6 (4-7) 3 knockout games

[New Tradition]

Way to go Region 5 (NCC, Wartburg and Aurora). 8-3 so far through the quarterfinals. Every region has intra-region knockout playoffs games with a guaranteed loss (and win). Region standings (Won-Loss):
Region 5 (8-3) 2 knockout games, 2 semi-finalists
Region 3 (5-4) 3 knockout games, 1 semi-finalist
Region 4 (4-3) 1 knockout game, 1 semi-finalist
Region 2 (4-6) 1 knockout game
Region 1 (3-5) 2 knockout games
Region 6 (4-7) 3 knockout games

How cool is that?  Thanks for sharing!

[USee]

MHB @NCC

I've been thinking a lot about this game and what is different from last year's Stagg Bowl. In some ways there are a lot of similarities but in many ways, these two teams are very different. The identity of these teams is the same, despite new head coaches on both sidelines (both teams hired long time assistants as HC). MHB has the same QB, RB and WR's, plays low mistake football (9 total sacks, 6 lost fumbles, 6 interceptions) and has dynamic playmakers on both sides of the ball. NCC has 4 of 5 returning OL, the same QB and RB, several of the same players on Defense. They want to run the ball right at you and hit you with play action while defensively keeping you from big plays.

In last year's game MHB defense came in ranked #11 in total defense and #3 in scoring defense. The Cru limited the NCC running attack (which came in averaging 293 ypg) to just 85 total yards and 2.5 yards per carry. That was surprising as the Cardinals had just run all over Mt Unions top 5 defense to the tune of 293 yds in Alliance the week before. That ability to shut down the run game made NCC one dimensional with a freshmen QB.

in 2021, NCC came into the Stagg with a 60/40 run to pass balance for the season. RB Ethan Greenfield and Terrance Hill led the way with close to 200 yds per game combined. QB Luke Lehnen was a freshman on that team and averaged about 31 yds rushing per game. NCC played the Stagg without 2 of their starting OL due to Covid if I remember right (at least 1 was out and another played out of position). They also had AA WR Andrew Kamienski. This year the Cardinals have doubled down on their run the ball strategy. They run it70% of the time vs 30% passing. And while Greenfield/Hill and company continue to get similar rushing totals, QB Lehnen has become much more active in the run game, doubling his per game total from 2021 to 61 ypg. He is the fastest player on the NCC team. This makes the run game much harder to stop and this offensive line is one of the most physical, punishing units I have seen at the D3 level. In addition, MHB has lost some dudes on defense. They come in ranked #56 in total defense and #28 in scoring defense which is clearly down from their dominant place a year ago. 

Another surprise in last year's game was MHB going for 57 pts on the other side including 463 yds passing. NCC's defense came in ranked #19 overall and #21 in scoring defense. The Cardinals were used to holding on to the ball with their vaunted running attack and outscoring their opponents while avoiding big plays against their defense. The MHB offense cam into 2021 with the #15 total offense and the #3 scoring offense. They had an almost 60/40 run to pass balance and Kyle King was lighting people up with his athletic WR's. This year, MHB has moved slightly to a 47/53 run vs pass balance and their offense is similarly ranked with the #12 overall offense and #9 scoring offense. 24 points in Q4 against Bethel should give NCC fans PTSD as the Cru scored 24 in Q4 of the Stagg to put away the Cardinals.

The biggest difference, in my mind, going into this game is North Central's defensive improvements. Dan Lester was added as a transfer in the defensive line and he promptly won CCIW DPOY honors as he combined with Tyler Rich, Dan Gilroy and Brandon Greifelt as returning starters to absolute shut down opponents run game. And in the secondary, the return of safety Julian Bell (started in the 2019 Stagg Bowl) and the addition of D1 transfer Antwain Walker in place of Jake Beeseley, makes this unit dramatically better than they were a year ago. They are the #1 ranke total defense and #1 scoring defense. They have given up over 300 yds of total offense 1x (Wheaton) and only Wheaton has rushed for over 100 yds (104). in 8 of their 13 games they have limited their opponents to under 200 yds total offense. This is a different defense up front and in the back.

Now Wheaton challenged them (ranked as #5 total offense) and scored 20 pts. Since then, only Del Val has seen the endzone (1x). Last year NCC struggled to run the ball and then fell behind the electric MHB attack and they didn't have the QB to bring them back.  In my opinion, if MHB can shut down this running attack again, they will win, almost certainly. Luke Lehnen is not a pocket passer and doesn't scare anyone with his arm. They also have less overall talent at WR, though DeAngelo Hardy is a certain AA.

The bigger question I have is whether NCC's upgraded defense can limit the Cru. The Cardinals' DLine is good, but MHB has only given up 9 sacks all year and keeping Kyle King clean isn't a good game plan. NCC certainly plays more zone/keep it in front of you type defense than they did a year ago. Watching last weeks game vs Bethel, I think the NCC offense is a lot more potent than Bethel overall and their defense is certainly better than the Royals. But this is the team that could be the Cardinal's Kryptonite so the Cardinals have a lot to prove, even as the consensus #1 going in. The Cru are still the defending champs. I'll be surprised at a blowout either way but I do think the winner of this game will be the favorite in Annapolis next week.

[kiko]

Since then, only Del Val has seen the endzone (1x).

Carnegie-Mellon and Ithaca scored TDs.  Del Val was a playoff opponent last year.  And Dan Lester is not a transfer student.  https://northcentralcardinals.com/sports/football/roster/dan-lester/14428

Not taking points off the essay though as I appreciate the time it took to put this together.

ETA - Perhaps only amusing to me, but it appears Dan Lester is shrinking.  He was listed as 6'3" in 2018, then 6'2" in 2021, and at 6'1" this year.

[emma17]

USee, I always enjoy your reviews and stats.

Specific to the surprising Stagg Bowl last year, I think it's possible the play calling had more to do w the result than UMHB stopping the NCC running game. Greenfield had 124 yards on 25 carries- and he only carried the ball 3 times in the 4th quarter.
The game was tight at half and UMHB opened the second half w a TD drive. NCC was driving the ball without problem and had 2nd and 6 at UMHB 37- then threw an interception.
On NCC's next series, after one Greenfield run, NCC threw another pick.

Those decisions led to the avalanche.

[NCC2010]

USee, I always enjoy your reviews and stats.

Specific to the surprising Stagg Bowl last year, I think it's possible the play calling had more to do w the result than UMHB stopping the NCC running game. Greenfield had 124 yards on 25 carries- and he only carried the ball 3 times in the 4th quarter.
The game was tight at half and UMHB opened the second half w a TD drive. NCC was driving the ball without problem and had 2nd and 6 at UMHB 37- then threw an interception.
On NCC's next series, after one Greenfield run, NCC threw another pick.

Those decisions led to the avalanche.

Agreed, thanks for the great breakdown USee.  The only other thing i can think of that hasnt been mentioned was Lehnen was also banged up heading into the title game last year if i recall.  he took a huge hit against Mount in the semis and I believe I remember Frank Rossi or one of the D3 guys in the pregame coverage mentioning that they didnt see him throwing the ball at all in the portions of practice they saw.  do not think it would've changed the outcome but it may have led to less designed QB runs being called and Lehnen may have been more hesitant to scramble.  the designed QB runs are definitely a bigger part of the playbook this year.

I think for this tilt everyone is fully healthy from NCC stand point.  i did see 1 of UMHB's starting d-lineman leave the Bethel game with an injury and not return.  Any Cru fans know if you have any starters banged up/not playing?  Hoping both teams are at full strength for a great game this weekend.

[USee]

USee, I always enjoy your reviews and stats.

Specific to the surprising Stagg Bowl last year, I think it's possible the play calling had more to do w the result than UMHB stopping the NCC running game. Greenfield had 124 yards on 25 carries- and he only carried the ball 3 times in the 4th quarter.
The game was tight at half and UMHB opened the second half w a TD drive. NCC was driving the ball without problem and had 2nd and 6 at UMHB 37- then threw an interception.
On NCC's next series, after one Greenfield run, NCC threw another pick.

Those decisions led to the avalanche.

I agree those interceptions changed the complexion of the game. Certainly Lehnen is a better player since then but he is still not an effective pocket passer but he's deadly in RPO and play action. Part of that is due to the lack of overall talent in the WR crew, but he also doesn't have much experience reading coverages and frankly, NCC hasn't needed that with their dominant run game.

I have said since early November there are only 1 or 2 teams in the country that can compete with NCC up front on both sides. MHB is one of the teams I was thinking of when I said that. Bottom line is NCC is going to stick to their guns and run the ball, Lehnen is  a bigger part of that this year, their OLine is better than a year ago and if you can stop it (and put pressure on them by scoring against their defense) then you will beat them. They haven't faced a team that can stop them yet. Carnegie Mellon had a top level front 7 but didn't have an offense that could decipher the Cardinal Defense. Ithaca isn't at the NCC level up front. Last year's MHB team had the horses and obviously could score....similar offense this year for MHB, much better defense for NCC in my opinion. On the other side, better offensive team (though less balanced) and not as good on defense for MHB.

[wally_wabash]

USee, I always enjoy your reviews and stats.

Specific to the surprising Stagg Bowl last year, I think it's possible the play calling had more to do w the result than UMHB stopping the NCC running game. Greenfield had 124 yards on 25 carries- and he only carried the ball 3 times in the 4th quarter.
The game was tight at half and UMHB opened the second half w a TD drive. NCC was driving the ball without problem and had 2nd and 6 at UMHB 37- then threw an interception.
On NCC's next series, after one Greenfield run, NCC threw another pick.

Those decisions led to the avalanche.

Agreed, thanks for the great breakdown USee.  The only other thing i can think of that hasnt been mentioned was Lehnen was also banged up heading into the title game last year if i recall.  he took a huge hit against Mount in the semis and I believe I remember Frank Rossi or one of the D3 guys in the pregame coverage mentioning that they didnt see him throwing the ball at all in the portions of practice they saw.  do not think it would've changed the outcome but it may have led to less designed QB runs being called and Lehnen may have been more hesitant to scramble.  the designed QB runs are definitely a bigger part of the playbook this year.

I think for this tilt everyone is fully healthy from NCC stand point.  i did see 1 of UMHB's starting d-lineman leave the Bethel game with an injury and not return.  Any Cru fans know if you have any starters banged up/not playing?  Hoping both teams are at full strength for a great game this weekend.

This is factual and I think it did alter some of NCC's offense last year in Canton.  Notably, the INT that emma mentioned was intended for Blake Williams who was as open as anybody can be at the goal line- that pass however had nothing on it, hung in the air forever and gave Jefferson Fritz enough time to close down something like 20 yards of space to step in front and pick it off.  That's a touchdown 100 times out of 100 if Lehnen has a good throwing shoulder there, and he just didn't.  TD in that spot makes the game 26-24 and who knows how the game goes from there.   Maybe the big completion gets a dude or two out of the box?  We'll never know.  I don't think Luke Lehnen had much to do with the 57 points and almost 600 yards of offense UMHB rolled up in Canton.  Not sure anybody was beating UMHB on that night. 

[Toby Taff]

Great Analysis USee. I will start by saying I am a complete UMHB homer. As of last Friday 4 of the 5 members in my immediate family are alumni. I bleed Purple and Gold. As such, let me say a few things about differences to consider.

1st- the defense now and the defense the first half of the season are different beasts. The LBs that call the defense and are responsible for that quick opening in the zone that UWW exploited know how to cover that now and were 1st time starters figuring things out early in the season. It is still open sometimes, but it is also an area where a few picks and good pass defenses have come later in the season.

2nd-and maybe the most important, there is no Jefferson Fritz on this team. Fritz's ability to cover made the whole defense better. His speed and power made it easier to cover mistakes, and you don't just replace a 3x all american safety easily.

3rd -  like last year, don't under estimate this receiving corps. KJ is the smallest on the field, but WOW is he fun to watch. Jordan has showed some additional skills this season, but is still a big man threat outside, and Hamilton and Day just make things happen.

I haven't watched NCC this season, but expect EG to be as dynamic as last year. Honestly I think their best shot is controlling the clock. You saw it last week. The Cru can score from anywhere, quickly. The best defense is to not let them have an offense.

Can't wait to watch this

[Lindy6]

I think for this tilt everyone is fully healthy from NCC stand point.  i did see 1 of UMHB's starting d-lineman leave the Bethel game with an injury and not return.  Any Cru fans know if you have any starters banged up/not playing?  Hoping both teams are at full strength for a great game this weekend.
[/quote]

Great analysis. Something that is rarely mentioned is the injury bug in the WR corps this year. Braithwaite, Lombardi and Paradee were all starters and all had their seasons end early. Rummell moved over from starting CB to starting WR to fill the void. Hardy has been exceptional with most attention on him all year. And The game plan has adjusted game to game based on who was healthy. The running % is up this year not only because of the lopsided scores, but also the depleted WRs available. Go Cards!

[USee]

Yea, I view the increase in run % a little different. The absolute strength of this NCC team is up front on offense. They lost Kamienski and don't have Rutter. DeAngelo Hardy is an elite D3 WR but NCC was never gonna be as good at WR as last year even with everyone healthy. As I mentioned before, Luke Lehnens carries and yards per game is double what it was last year. They are also moving Lehnen's launch point with boot, play action etc, more than last year. Brad Spencer is playing to his strength, and win/or lose, you are gonna have to keep NCC from rushing for 300 yards against you to win.

The hardest thing in football to predict is the matchups up front (OL and DL) and ultimately that's where games are won and lost.  I think UMHB will score more than any other team has on NCC this season (Wheaton's 20 pts is the high so far) I just don't know if they can keep this offense from scoring more. If anyone can, MHB can.

[Toby Taff]

I think for this tilt everyone is fully healthy from NCC stand point.  i did see 1 of UMHB's starting d-lineman leave the Bethel game with an injury and not return.  Any Cru fans know if you have any starters banged up/not playing?  Hoping both teams are at full strength for a great game this weekend.

Great analysis. Something that is rarely mentioned is the injury bug in the WR corps this year. Braithwaite, Lombardi and Paradee were all starters and all had their seasons end early. Rummell moved over from starting CB to starting WR to fill the void. Hardy has been exceptional with most attention on him all year. And The game plan has adjusted game to game based on who was healthy. The running % is up this year not only because of the lopsided scores, but also the depleted WRs available. Go Cards!
[/quote]At graduation last friday I looked down and saw Kyle King wearing a boot. whatever the cause didn't hobble him in the Bethel game. Pete Smith, was the D Lineman that went down. wasn't a play injury.Coach said his kneecap slipped out after a play and he'll be braced and ready to play, and we lost a starting O-lineman in the Trinity game, but his replacement played a lot last year and looked great vs Bethel

[New Tradition]

Congrats to Ethan Greenfield on being a Gagliardi finalist!!

And congrats to the other finalists, as well.  All very worthy and excellent finalist nominees. 

https://www.d3football.com/notables/2022/12/gagliardi-finalists-announced

[New Tradition]

Also, further congratulations to Greenfield for being named the Region 5 offensive player of the year! 

Congrats also to all of the other all Region nominees!   Holy smokes there are a lot!

Pos.   Player   School   Yr.
First Team
RB   Ethan Greenfield   North Central   Sr.
WR   DeAngelo Hardy   North Central   Jr.
TE   Ben Juska   Wheaton   So.
G   Trevor Gabriele   Wheaton   Sr.
T   Jeske Maples   North Central   So.
DE   Alexander Perkins   Millikin   Sr.
DT   Dan Lester   North Central   Jr.
CB   Antwain Walker   North Central   Jr.
S   Sam Bell   Wheaton   Sr.
Second Team
QB   Will Bowers   Wheaton   Sr.
RB   Giovanni Weeks   Wheaton   Sr.
WR   Charlie Hamilton   Illinois Wesleyan   Sr.
C   Jarod Thornton   North Central   Jr.
G   Sam Pryor   North Central   So.
K   Tanner Rains   North Central   So.
DT   Quinton Miller   Millikin   Sr.
LB   BJ Adamchik   North Central   So.
LB   Will Campbell   Carroll   Fr.
Third Team
RB   Terrence Hill   North Central   Sr.
T   Graham Wall   Wheaton   Sr.
G   Paul Fay   Wheaton   Sr.
LB   Jalen Shaffer   Wheaton   Sr.

https://www.d3football.com/awards/all-region/2022/2022-d3football-all-region-5