FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[wally_wabash]

NCC is on the road this week??

What a joke!


And equal joke is that the actual final four is being played this week on the left side of the bracket  with UWL vs NCC and UWW vs Wartburg. The right side doesn't have one team that can compete with those 4.

I mean, did you even watch the 12:00 EST games?  Have we learned absolutely nothing about football playoff determinism in the last 72 hours?

[Cardinal773]

Have we learned absolutely nothing about football playoff determinism in the last 72 hours?

I'm not too sure that's where SpartanHouse4 was coming from.  Consider where your mind was BEFORE this bracket came out.  Assuming you knew who was in and who was out to start with -- assuming you weren't counting on St. John's -- what were YOUR most likely final fours?  Be honest, please! Did you have JHU and Alma in the mix?  Was Courtland sprinkled in there with UMU, UWW, and NCC?  You, SpartanHouse4, me... we are all aware that Almas are lurking around throughout rounds 1 and 2 and even the Q-finals.  Are they legit title contenders?  Well, yeah!  If you're playing, you're in contention.  Were they listed in the top 4, 5, or 6 on your last Top 25 ballot?  I doubt it.

[hazzben]

NCC is on the road this week??

What a joke!


And equal joke is that the actual final four is being played this week on the left side of the bracket  with UWL vs NCC and UWW vs Wartburg. The right side doesn't have one team that can compete with those 4.

I mean, did you even watch the 12:00 EST games?  Have we learned absolutely nothing about football playoff determinism in the last 72 hours?

I think the questions are, is Mount that down or Alma that good? And how good is RMC? The regional brackets unfortunately make it nearly impossible to prove real quality on the right side. The old barometer (Mount) doesn't look like the Mount of old. We looked at their stats and game results this year and assumed same old Mount. But they haven't won a Stagg in 5 years (a silly thing to write as a knock on a team, but it is Mount) and have 2 early eliminations in 3 years.

NCC looks destined to run through the field like a hot knife through butter. So it doesn't really tell us anything if they beat JHU or RMC (or Alma?) by 30 in the Stagg.

If the team that emerges from the right side can make it a game against NCC (or the team that knocks off Goliath), it'll change the narrative. Until then decades of imbalance and results just seem to perpetuate the perspective. Teams on that side should want a balanced bracket as much as anyone, to finally have a chance to prove they can hold water against what comes out of Region 5 and 6 and 3.

[wally_wabash]

Have we learned absolutely nothing about football playoff determinism in the last 72 hours?

I'm not too sure that's where SpartanHouse4 was coming from.  Consider where your mind was BEFORE this bracket came out.  Assuming you knew who was in and who was out to start with -- assuming you weren't counting on St. John's -- what were YOUR most likely final fours?  Be honest, please! Did you have JHU and Alma in the mix?  Was Courtland sprinkled in there with UMU, UWW, and NCC?  You, SpartanHouse4, me... we are all aware that Almas are lurking around throughout rounds 1 and 2 and even the Q-finals.  Are they legit title contenders?  Well, yeah!  If you're playing, you're in contention.  Were they listed in the top 4, 5, or 6 on your last Top 25 ballot?  I doubt it.

Fair question.  The top four in my final regular season top 25 were NCC, UMU, UWL, UWW.  I have Wartburg at 5.  Now, when we did our mock bracket we did manage to build four regions around NCC, UMU, Wartburg, and UWL, however we did that with a full acknowledgement that doing that with viable #1 seeds around which you could build a full on easterly quadrant was maybe not going to be the end result.  Indeed, it wasn't.  There were so many teams qualified east of Cleveland that it was always going to be difficult to do this without building a region around either Hopkins or Randolph-Macon. 

So with that in mind, I think projecting a final four was going to be NCC, UMU, whichever of UWL/UWW/Wartburg didn't get lumped in with NCC, and whoever emerges from the likely Hopkins/Macon region.  In our Selection Sunday podcast, we acknowledged Mount Union as a clear favorite in that region but also talked about Alma and Cortland having offenses good enough to pose a challenge if they could manage to not get wiped out in the first 20 minutes.  Alma survived the first 20, then found their offense in the last 15.   

The only team out there that I think is genuinely untouchable by anybody on the right side is North Central.  Everybody else is favored in these hypothetical games yes, but nobody is so far ahead of the teams remaining on the right side that winning is a forgone conclusion.  We should have all learned this by now thanks to Aurora and Endicott and now Alma.  There are more than four really good teams!

[NCC2010]

Does anyone know for certain who will host if both NCC and UWW advance? I knew we would be going to LaCrosse this week, and would travel to Wartburg next week, but i have heard differing opinions on who would host if both NCC and UWW advance.

[New Tradition]

Does anyone know for certain who will host if both NCC and UWW advance? I knew we would be going to LaCrosse this week, and would travel to Wartburg next week, but i have heard differing opinions on who would host if both NCC and UWW advance.

As far as I know, there is no way to know for certain. Ostensibly, we're both 2 seeds. It depends on which numbers the committee holds supreme that week. We'll find out late Saturday/early Sunday if that happens.

[NCC2010]

Does anyone know for certain who will host if both NCC and UWW advance? I knew we would be going to LaCrosse this week, and would travel to Wartburg next week, but i have heard differing opinions on who would host if both NCC and UWW advance.

As far as I know, there is no way to know for certain. Ostensibly, we're both 2 seeds. It depends on which numbers the committee holds supreme that week. We'll find out late Saturday/early Sunday if that happens.

ok thank you for the information. i assume the same is true if both Wartburg and LaCrosse win, since they are both 1 seeds.

[Cardinal773]

Hey man.  Let's just beat UWL first.  It's kind of making me nervous how everyone is saying they're going to handle the Eagles.  I hope that's the case, but that QB is really good.

So what's the deal with UWL?  Are they super dependent on the QB? He's duel threat, but do they have a solid run game?  I see that they tend to give up a lot of points -- NC is probably keeping them up at night -- what's the deal with their D?  Are they giving up long drives or are they susceptible to big plays?  Or are they just giving up points in garbage time?  Looking at the AU game they went down early, but didn't really clamp down.

[Pat Coleman]

Hey man.  Let's just beat UWL first.  It's kind of making me nervous how everyone is saying they're going to handle the Eagles.  I hope that's the case, but that QB is really good.

So what's the deal with UWL?  Are they super dependent on the QB? He's duel threat, but do they have a solid run game?  I see that they tend to give up a lot of points -- NC is probably keeping them up at night -- what's the deal with their D?  Are they giving up long drives or are they susceptible to big plays?  Or are they just giving up points in garbage time?  Looking at the AU game they went down early, but didn't really clamp down.

They ran the ball really well last week without leaning on Helterbrand in that department, but in general I don't think of them as a team that runs it super well aside from him.

One key note for UWL this past week was that they got their starting center back for the first time since before the River Falls game.

[wally_wabash]

Hey man.  Let's just beat UWL first.  It's kind of making me nervous how everyone is saying they're going to handle the Eagles.  I hope that's the case, but that QB is really good.

So what's the deal with UWL?  Are they super dependent on the QB? He's duel threat, but do they have a solid run game?  I see that they tend to give up a lot of points -- NC is probably keeping them up at night -- what's the deal with their D?  Are they giving up long drives or are they susceptible to big plays?  Or are they just giving up points in garbage time?  Looking at the AU game they went down early, but didn't really clamp down.

Whoa!  That's a different game entirely. 

Does anyone know for certain who will host if both NCC and UWW advance? I knew we would be going to LaCrosse this week, and would travel to Wartburg next week, but i have heard differing opinions on who would host if both NCC and UWW advance.

As far as I know, there is no way to know for certain. Ostensibly, we're both 2 seeds. It depends on which numbers the committee holds supreme that week. We'll find out late Saturday/early Sunday if that happens.

Yeah, it's really hard to say where a NCC/UWW game would take place.  I usually love a heaping helping of irony, but in this case turning the 2010 thing on its head wouldn't be cool.  Two wrongs and whatnot. 

[USee]

Crude analysis here without much detail: UWL is #18 in nation in total offense and #74 in defense. For reference Trinity is #22 offense and #43 Def (post NCC). Wheaton is #10 offense and #116 defense (post UWW).

NCC is #1 Offense and #10 total defense.

I don't expect UWL/NCC to be particularly close, Helterbrand is the run game and the pass game. he's very, very good and they have 1 stud WR. Their defense is average at best. I would think UWL can score some on NCC 21-30pts but I think NCC can pick their offensive output and make it happen.

[robertgoulet]

Transitive property (20% of the time it works every time:

Hardin Simmons 28, LaCrosse 21
Hardin Simmons 6, Trinity 20
North Central 71, Trinity 28

North Central 54, Wheaton 35
Whitewater 49, Wheaton 42
Whitewater 34, LaCrosse 37

[NCC2010]

Hey man.  Let's just beat UWL first.  It's kind of making me nervous how everyone is saying they're going to handle the Eagles.  I hope that's the case, but that QB is really good.

So what's the deal with UWL?  Are they super dependent on the QB? He's duel threat, but do they have a solid run game?  I see that they tend to give up a lot of points -- NC is probably keeping them up at night -- what's the deal with their D?  Are they giving up long drives or are they susceptible to big plays?  Or are they just giving up points in garbage time?  Looking at the AU game they went down early, but didn't really clamp down.

just to be clear, in neither of my posts did i say NCC would win, was just asking what would happen if they do. 

the only game i have seen of LaCrosse was against River Falls.  Helterbrand will be the best dual threat QB NCC has faced this season.  Studer their #1 WR is really good, and i would expect Antwain Walker to shadow him (if he's able to play, left the Trinity game with an injury). 

[USee]

Walker returned to Trinity game after leaving I heard.

Barring really bad unforeseen absences in the game, NCC will win. I am saying it. UWL doesn't even have an Alma chance in Alliance.

[wally_wabash]

Yeah, I also thought Walker came back in the game.  I remember being surprised by that because he left the field in a way that is usually not indicative of a guy who is coming back in.  Maybe I was wrong?  New Tradition might have a better memory on this.