FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[XREDDRAGON77]

And they were down several key guys in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs!  They survived and advanced, and got back to good health and you could see the difference in rounds 3 and 4! Hoping we get a good game on Friday! I'm 23 years removed and it seems surreal that the team I was a part of, has made it to the Stagg!

[WRMUalum13]

It's me again, back to talk about the size of the O and D lines of NCC's playoff opponent.

Cortland has some beef in the trenches!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Obviously things like technique and athleticism can be more important, but looking at the numbers Cortland matches up well size-wise against the Cardinals. I was a bit surprised to see that Cortland is slightly bigger on both sides of the LOS. NCC has the best O line in the country, but at least they shouldn't just be able to walk all over Cortland's 4 down linemen. (though I wouldn't' be all that surprised if they did!)

Cortland OL average height and weight 6-3" 290lbs
NCC OL average height and weight  6-2" 280lbs

Cortland DL average height and weight 6-2" 268lbs
NCC DL average height and weight 6-1.75" 266lbs

[USee]

Alma rushed for 285 yds (#27 ranked rush off) so I am not anticipating much resistance to the nations #1 run game.

Offensively, Cortland has the highest rated offense NCC has faced this year (including Lacrosse) so could be a shootout.

[robertgoulet]

Alma rushed for 285 yds (#27 ranked rush off) so I am not anticipating much resistance to the nations #1 run game.

Offensively, Cortland has the highest rated offense NCC has faced this year (including Lacrosse) so could be a shootout.

Eagerly awaiting the USee analysis and prediction post.

[NCC2010]

After the Wartburg game that included NCC throwing an interception and also fumbling 3 times (2 out of bounds, 1 recovered by NCC) I decided to look back at the turnovers for the Cards on the season.

They have 6 in total now:

1. Sacco fumble on opening drive against North Park
2. Lehnen fumble against Wheaton in 3rd quarter (score was 35-14)
3. Lehnen interception against Wartburg in 3rd quarter (score was 26-13)

4. Lehnen interception against North Park on last play of first half (essentially a hail mary, was 3rd and 25)
5. Fumble by Rummell following a 50 yard completion against Carthage (score was 35-0 in 3rd quarter)
6. Fumble by 4/5th string running back against Trinity in 4th quarter (score was 71-21)

3 of the turnovers were pretty inconsequential.  Just thought it was worth noting since NCC has taken very good care of the ball on the season that it seemed pretty out of the norm for them to have a flurry of potential turnovers in the Wartburg game.  The other thing of note, Sacco fumbled both times while running to the left sideline and holding the ball in his right (inside) hand.  obvisouly, most coaches teach to carry the ball in your outside hand, but i noticed that Sacco had a pretty large wrap/splint on his left hand/thumb.  I am assuming that is why he was only carrying the ball with his right hand. 

[robertgoulet]

3. Lehnen interception against Wartburg in 3rd quarter (score was 26-13)

I had to do a double take when this one happened. As careful as he's been with the ball all season it was so out of character I thought maybe it slipped out of his hands or something. Just completely out of character.

[USee]

Traditional coaching methods have indeed been for a RB to carry it in the left when going left and the right when going right. More recently, some coaches tell the RB to pick a dominant hand and always keep it there, learning how to secure the ball through contact. You see this in the NFL quite a bit.

I haven't seen enough of Cortland to make a prediction. It could be similar to the Wheaton/LaCrosse games is my initial thought. Those are the two best offenses (with average to weak defenses) NCC has faced.

[robertgoulet]

It appears from the stats that Cortland's QB isn't an oak tree, which makes him, at least anecdotally, a type of QB that NCC has struggled with. Especially if they are without Egbo, Walker and Adamchik. It was interesting that Walker was still dressed last week even though he didn't play a snap. Either some gamesmanship going on from NCC or Walker was a game-time decision and just ended up not being able to go. If it was the latter then hopefully this extra week was enough to get him healthy. I didn't see what happened to Adamchik to take him out (maybe concussion protocol?) and I am assuming Egbo had an ankle and just wasn't getting the explosion he needed to be effective (or tweaked it more) and that's why he ended up coming out even though he started.

I guess it's at least plausible they could all 3 be available Friday.

[Ice Bear]

Alma rushed for 285 yds (#27 ranked rush off) so I am not anticipating much resistance to the nations #1 run game.

Offensively, Cortland has the highest rated offense NCC has faced this year (including Lacrosse) so could be a shootout.

I think we're going to see NCC's offense really hit Cortland hard right off the bat. While the Red Dragon D was exceptional last week I don't think they will be able to handle the NCC run game which will prove to open up their passing game. With that said, I believe this will force, or present a perception to the Cortland O that they have to force and take some real chances early. I don't think that is a recipe for success against a team like NCC. I'm hoping Cortland has some moments (I'm really hoping they will win) throughout and make the game competitive. Very happy for both teams and proud of what both teams have accomplished in their own right. I just think the Cardinals will be too much, especially on O. Just my thoughts and trying to be as objective as possible.

[XREDDRAGON77]

Historically Cortland has done real well vs the run when teams have been one dimensional. Even against balanced offenses, they have been strong.  Those multifaceted offenses that have mobile Qbs have been the most troublesome... like Susquehanna and Alama 1st half. I'm sure if we were at full strength, rounds 1 and 2 may not have been as close but luckily it's water under the bridge. Friday will be a real test! We will need to play our best and the offense will need to click like it's done most of the season. I'm hoping for a track meet! If we can score, we have a punchers chance!

[Ice Bear]

Papa Ice Bear and I were discussing the Stagg Bowl last night and I was very surprised by his take. He seems very confident that Cortland is going to win this football game, by more than one score. I was admittedly taken aback by this and his reasoning was simple (yet not based on any comparative analysis/data). He spoke about the way in which this Cortland offense is playing and how this team seems to be peaking on all cylinders. The Red Dragons took Alma's counter punches and ended up outpunching them with a very impressive second half. More importantly the Cortland defense, since that second half of the Alma game, has been nasty (the D has always been pointed out as their obvious weakness). They quieted the Alma offense and made the Yellowjacket offense look absolutely ordinary. He says he just believes they are going to roll into Salem and surprise again doing the same things they have been doing on both sides of the ball over the last two weeks. He's been watching division 3 football for over 5 decades.

While I still don't agree, and I stick to my prediction with confidence (NCC 56- Cortland 17), his take at the very least has given me some more perspective into what could happen. Into the fact that Cortland's play has convinced some that this team may indeed be special. Special enough to defeat the very best team in the nation. If it does happen, we'll have no farther to look than the last two weeks, the improved play of the defense, and the incredible efficiency of this talented offense.

To me, a team and program like NCC sits atop the top tier of D3 football, like many have before, with so many looking up at them, hoping for a real challenge from a team that is not in that top tier. I believe after last week, Wartburg sits in that top tier and many from the East/Northeast would give plenty to be able to say a team from our neck of the woods sits there as well. It's been a long time.

Reflecting on NCC's playoff run, last weeks close battle provides me with more pause than if NCC had rolled the Knights. This team, this championship team showed they can take a punch in the mouth and respond, even when they haven't been punched in that specific manner (referring to NCC falling behind on Saturday) in a very long time. Who knows what will happen. Either way I am excited for anyone and everyone involved. I absolutely love this time of year. I just can't be convinced at this point that a team from the Northeast could possibly be the best in the land.

[WRMUalum13]

Papa Ice Bear and I were discussing the Stagg Bowl last night and I was very surprised by his take. He seems very confident that Cortland is going to win this football game, by more than one score. I was admittedly taken aback by this and his reasoning was simple (yet not based on any comparative analysis/data). He spoke about the way in which this Cortland offense is playing and how this team seems to be peaking on all cylinders. The Red Dragons took Alma's counter punches and ended up outpunching them with a very impressive second half. More importantly the Cortland defense, since that second half of the Alma game, has been nasty (the D has always been pointed out as their obvious weakness). They quieted the Alma offense and made the Yellowjacket offense look absolutely ordinary. He says he just believes they are going to roll into Salem and surprise again doing the same things they have been doing on both sides of the ball over the last two weeks. He's been watching division 3 football for over 5 decades.

While I still don't agree, and I stick to my prediction with confidence (NCC 56- Cortland 17), his take at the very least has given me some more perspective into what could happen. Into the fact that Cortland's play has convinced some that this team may indeed be special. Special enough to defeat the very best team in the nation. If it does happen, we'll have no farther to look than the last two weeks, the improved play of the defense, and the incredible efficiency of this talented offense.

To me, a team and program like NCC sits atop the top tier of D3 football, like many have before, with so many looking up at them, hoping for a real challenge from a team that is not in that top tier. I believe after last week, Wartburg sits in that top tier and many from the East/Northeast would give plenty to be able to say a team from our neck of the woods sits there as well. It's been a long time.

Reflecting on NCC's playoff run, last weeks close battle provides me with more pause than if NCC had rolled the Knights. This team, this championship team showed they can take a punch in the mouth and respond, even when they haven't been punched in that specific manner (referring to NCC falling behind on Saturday) in a very long time. Who knows what will happen. Either way I am excited for anyone and everyone involved. I absolutely love this time of year. I just can't be convinced at this point that a team from the Northeast could possibly be the best in the land.

The more I think about it the more lopsided my prediction gets in favor of NCC. I'm going with 63-21 (not seeing any field goals in this one). I just think this year's bracket was really skewed and the talent level in Cortland's quad just won't prepare them much for the speed and athleticism they're going to see tomorrow night. Alma was likely the closest in terms of speed but that game would have been much more competitive with a healthy QB.

I calculated North Central's Drive Success rate by starting position through their 4 playoff games (only considering a TD "success") and the numbers are pretty scary if you're a red dragon.

Starting Position and % time that drive ended in a TD
Own 0-9 40%
Own 10-19 50%
Own 20-29 50%
Own 30-39 62.5%
Own 40- Midfield - 80%
Opp Midfield to 40 83.3 %

Considering that 3/4 teams NCC played in the playoffs had better Defenses than Cortland (at least according to Massey ratings) these numbers probably don't quite do the Cardinals offense justice for what we should expect against Cortland.

Only thing that gives me hope for a good game is that maybe Cortland is just peaking at the right time, and NCC will overlook them / be worn down from their gauntlet to get to Salem.

[D3fanboy]

Papa Ice Bear and I were discussing the Stagg Bowl last night and I was very surprised by his take. He seems very confident that Cortland is going to win this football game, by more than one score. I was admittedly taken aback by this and his reasoning was simple (yet not based on any comparative analysis/data). He spoke about the way in which this Cortland offense is playing and how this team seems to be peaking on all cylinders. The Red Dragons took Alma's counter punches and ended up outpunching them with a very impressive second half. More importantly the Cortland defense, since that second half of the Alma game, has been nasty (the D has always been pointed out as their obvious weakness). They quieted the Alma offense and made the Yellowjacket offense look absolutely ordinary. He says he just believes they are going to roll into Salem and surprise again doing the same things they have been doing on both sides of the ball over the last two weeks. He's been watching division 3 football for over 5 decades.

While I still don't agree, and I stick to my prediction with confidence (NCC 56- Cortland 17), his take at the very least has given me some more perspective into what could happen. Into the fact that Cortland's play has convinced some that this team may indeed be special. Special enough to defeat the very best team in the nation. If it does happen, we'll have no farther to look than the last two weeks, the improved play of the defense, and the incredible efficiency of this talented offense.

To me, a team and program like NCC sits atop the top tier of D3 football, like many have before, with so many looking up at them, hoping for a real challenge from a team that is not in that top tier. I believe after last week, Wartburg sits in that top tier and many from the East/Northeast would give plenty to be able to say a team from our neck of the woods sits there as well. It's been a long time.

Reflecting on NCC's playoff run, last weeks close battle provides me with more pause than if NCC had rolled the Knights. This team, this championship team showed they can take a punch in the mouth and respond, even when they haven't been punched in that specific manner (referring to NCC falling behind on Saturday) in a very long time. Who knows what will happen. Either way I am excited for anyone and everyone involved. I absolutely love this time of year. I just can't be convinced at this point that a team from the Northeast could possibly be the best in the land.

The more I think about it the more lopsided my prediction gets in favor of NCC. I'm going with 63-21 (not seeing any field goals in this one). I just think this year's bracket was really skewed and the talent level in Cortland's quad just won't prepare them much for the speed and athleticism they're going to see tomorrow night. Alma was likely the closest in terms of speed but that game would have been much more competitive with a healthy QB.

I calculated North Central's Drive Success rate by starting position through their 4 playoff games (only considering a TD "success") and the numbers are pretty scary if you're a red dragon.

Starting Position and % time that drive ended in a TD
Own 0-9 40%
Own 10-19 50%
Own 20-29 50%
Own 30-39 62.5%
Own 40- Midfield - 80%
Opp Midfield to 40 83.3 %

Considering that 3/4 teams NCC played in the playoffs had better Defenses than Cortland (at least according to Massey ratings) these numbers probably don't quite do the Cardinals offense justice for what we should expect against Cortland.

Only thing that gives me hope for a good game is that maybe Cortland is just peaking at the right time, and NCC will overlook them / be worn down from their gauntlet to get to Salem.

nope, it'll get ugly....quick

[CruFrenzy]

We should know sometime tonight or tomorrow morning what Vegas thinks about this matchup.

I'm expecting something like NCC -17.5 and would expect a total around 70.. but we'll see. Definitely a new matchup for oddsmakers to deal with considering there have only been 6 different teams (I think) that have played in the Stagg Bowl in the last 10 seasons. Cortland will be the 7th.

[WRMUalum13]

Papa Ice Bear and I were discussing the Stagg Bowl last night and I was very surprised by his take. He seems very confident that Cortland is going to win this football game, by more than one score. I was admittedly taken aback by this and his reasoning was simple (yet not based on any comparative analysis/data). He spoke about the way in which this Cortland offense is playing and how this team seems to be peaking on all cylinders. The Red Dragons took Alma's counter punches and ended up outpunching them with a very impressive second half. More importantly the Cortland defense, since that second half of the Alma game, has been nasty (the D has always been pointed out as their obvious weakness). They quieted the Alma offense and made the Yellowjacket offense look absolutely ordinary. He says he just believes they are going to roll into Salem and surprise again doing the same things they have been doing on both sides of the ball over the last two weeks. He's been watching division 3 football for over 5 decades.

While I still don't agree, and I stick to my prediction with confidence (NCC 56- Cortland 17), his take at the very least has given me some more perspective into what could happen. Into the fact that Cortland's play has convinced some that this team may indeed be special. Special enough to defeat the very best team in the nation. If it does happen, we'll have no farther to look than the last two weeks, the improved play of the defense, and the incredible efficiency of this talented offense.

To me, a team and program like NCC sits atop the top tier of D3 football, like many have before, with so many looking up at them, hoping for a real challenge from a team that is not in that top tier. I believe after last week, Wartburg sits in that top tier and many from the East/Northeast would give plenty to be able to say a team from our neck of the woods sits there as well. It's been a long time.

Reflecting on NCC's playoff run, last weeks close battle provides me with more pause than if NCC had rolled the Knights. This team, this championship team showed they can take a punch in the mouth and respond, even when they haven't been punched in that specific manner (referring to NCC falling behind on Saturday) in a very long time. Who knows what will happen. Either way I am excited for anyone and everyone involved. I absolutely love this time of year. I just can't be convinced at this point that a team from the Northeast could possibly be the best in the land.

The more I think about it the more lopsided my prediction gets in favor of NCC. I'm going with 63-21 (not seeing any field goals in this one). I just think this year's bracket was really skewed and the talent level in Cortland's quad just won't prepare them much for the speed and athleticism they're going to see tomorrow night. Alma was likely the closest in terms of speed but that game would have been much more competitive with a healthy QB.

I calculated North Central's Drive Success rate by starting position through their 4 playoff games (only considering a TD "success") and the numbers are pretty scary if you're a red dragon.

Starting Position and % time that drive ended in a TD
Own 0-9 40%
Own 10-19 50%
Own 20-29 50%
Own 30-39 62.5%
Own 40- Midfield - 80%
Opp Midfield to 40 83.3 %

Considering that 3/4 teams NCC played in the playoffs had better Defenses than Cortland (at least according to Massey ratings) these numbers probably don't quite do the Cardinals offense justice for what we should expect against Cortland.

Only thing that gives me hope for a good game is that maybe Cortland is just peaking at the right time, and NCC will overlook them / be worn down from their gauntlet to get to Salem.

nope, it'll get ugly....quick

To be fair, my offiical prediction is 63-21