FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[The Third Division]

Allow me to start this conversation - what is it gonna take for Wheaton to beat North Central now?

[Pat Coleman]

Allow me to start this conversation - what is it gonna take for Wheaton to beat North Central now?

The ability to turn back time?

[Gregory Sager]

Cher: The missing ingredient of Wheaton football.

[Cardinal773]

Time travel for sure.  Until that happens I suppose Luke Lehnen not playing football will help. 

Their D1 transfer QB not playing didn't help, but it's not like he was going to magic up 4 more touchdowns over his replacement.

Wheaton's going to be just fine.  They're always going to field a team with at least 2 or 3 guys who have no business being in D3 because of their religious mission.

[Kovo]

Cher: The missing ingredient of Wheaton football.

Or move time forward. Nothing lasts forever, I hate to say. But, in the forseeable future, we may close the gap on the 47-55-3 alltime record we have against Wheaton.

[CarollFan]

Check out the OL and the holes on some of these runs. As long as their OL dominates they dominate.

https://x.com/Pritzkersgunt/status/1842741244490813951?t=UFdBNeGCKNCldmcssTAWyw&s=19

[Jbothe]

Attended WashU/IWU game Saturday.

After seeing the same game last year, IWU has improved. Solidifying QB position has helped a lot.

WashU is solid on both sides.

It was 33-8 in 3Q and then the special teams went haywire for WashU on back to back plays.

IWU got a KOR return for a TD and then WashU fumbled back their KOR to give the Titans a very short field.

Interesting to see how season plays out but I think NC-Wheaton-WashU-IWU end up your top 4 in CCIW.

Sorry to see Augie drop their game but credit to North Park.

[Gregory Sager]

Cher: The missing ingredient of Wheaton football.

Or move time forward. Nothing lasts forever, I hate to say. But, in the forseeable future, we may close the gap on the 47-55-3 alltime record we have against Wheaton.

That's exactly how we at North Park feel about our soccer record against Augustana. At one point Augie was ahead 22-5 (not counting ties). Now it's 24-20.

You have to make hay while the sun shines. And the implication of that old saying is that you can't make hay once the sun sets and it's turned dark again.

[CarollFan]

Attended WashU/IWU game Saturday.

After seeing the same game last year, IWU has improved. Solidifying QB position has helped a lot.

WashU is solid on both sides.

It was 33-8 in 3Q and then the special teams went haywire for WashU on back to back plays.

IWU got a KOR return for a TD and then WashU fumbled back their KOR to give the Titans a very short field.

Interesting to see how season plays out but I think NC-Wheaton-WashU-IWU end up your top 4 in CCIW.

Sorry to see Augie drop their game but credit to North Park.

Thx for the update on that game.
On the top 4. WashU and Wheaton game was a good one last year and I'm expecting a battle this year. As far as IWU for that 4rth spot a couple other teams IWU will have to beat will take a shot at that spot too.

[Jbothe]

Attended WashU/IWU game Saturday.

After seeing the same game last year, IWU has improved. Solidifying QB position has helped a lot.

WashU is solid on both sides.

It was 33-8 in 3Q and then the special teams went haywire for WashU on back to back plays.

IWU got a KOR return for a TD and then WashU fumbled back their KOR to give the Titans a very short field.

Interesting to see how season plays out but I think NC-Wheaton-WashU-IWU end up your top 4 in CCIW.

Sorry to see Augie drop their game but credit to North Park.

Thx for the update on that game.
On the top 4. WashU and Wheaton game was a good one last year and I'm expecting a battle this year. As far as IWU for that 4rth spot a couple other teams IWU will have to beat will take a shot at that spot too.

Very true.

The more I think about the more I question IWU.

 I just watched the replay of the game and IWU was unable to make the critical plays when they needed to. And there was a large stretch of the game where WashU dominated.

I think IWU lacked discipline in key spots also. Several incidents of after the play pushing. That's the stuff that costs you in close games and I can see that biting them against a Carroll, Augie, or The Park.

[CarollFan]

Games this week. Logan gets these out there quick.
Spreads courtesy of Logan Hansen. https://hansenratings.github.io/

NCC -69.3 @ Millikin
Carthage @ WashU -42.3
IWU @ Wheaton -25.6
Elmhurst @Augie -21.8
Carroll -11 @ NPU

[Thunderdome21]

Check out the OL and the holes on some of these runs. As long as their OL dominates they dominate.

https://x.com/Pritzkersgunt/status/1842741244490813951?t=UFdBNeGCKNCldmcssTAWyw&s=19

The two long TD runs by Lehnen didn't happen because of the OL and the holes; they happened because Wheaton made crucial mistakes. On his first long TD run, the DE didn't hold contain on the read option. On the second long TD run, he lost discipline and overplayed it, creating a huge hole. Although that DE is super talented, he's also really young (a sophomore). Past stellar defenses of Wheaton have been comprised of upperclassmen in its front seven. Don't get me wrong, NCC's O-line was dominant and did a great job neutralizing Wheaton's pass rush, which is one of Wheaton's primary strengths.

2022 was the only year that Wheaton's D held Lehnen in check. He only averaged 2.7 yards per carry with ten carries. But they had a middle linebacker back then who spied him most of the game and was just as fast and athletic as Lehnen. Of course, you were picking your poison because Greenfield ran crazy, especially in the second half, as Wheaton had lost their SAM linebacker (already its second string) to injury earlier in the game and wasn't playing at full strength as there was a noticeable dropoff.   

[CarollFan]

Yes it amazes me year and year out how they build a dominate OL in general to dominate everyone in the conference. They have the skill players but that OL at least for the rest of us sure makes it tough to get our hands on anyone.

[CarollFan]

One of Logan's models predicts final record. Updates every week.
Right now his model predicts the following. (No idea what data he uses to derive this)

                   W      L

NCC          10    0
WashU      8.2    1.8
Wheaton    7.5    2.5
Carroll        6.2    3.8
IWU            4.7    5.3
NPU            4.5    5.5
Augie          4.3    5.7
Elmhurst    2.7    7.3
Millikin       1      9
Carthage      .9    9.1

He gives WashU a 41% chance of making the playoffs and Wheaton a 38.4% chance.

[NCC2010]

Observations from NCC's win over Wheaton...

Lehnen was wearing a clear visor on his helmet for the first time i can remember.  Must have helped, as this was easily his best performance of the season imo.  NCC was 8/9 on 3rd down and he was the main reason for that success. Made something out of nothing on a bunch of plays that Wheaton initially had good coverage on. Jerred Durian was inserted back into the starting lineup at center and this was the first repeat starting line group of the season (same lineup they used against Aurora). 

On defense, Brayden Garrigan the transfer sophomore might honestly be our best defender, he has been super impressive thus far.  The big bummer for me was the other sophomore starting safety, Kenny Rutherford, who has also been playing great, suffered what appeared to be a significant knee injury on the last drive of the game.  He was on crutches after the game and not putting any weight on his leg.  I get that they want the starters to play further into games to be ready for the playoffs, but seems silly to lose a starter to injury when the score was 55-21 at the time. I would assume Jahron Williams who started at safety all of last season would fill in, but he also has been out with and injury and was wearing a walking boot on the sidelines.  Hoping one or both of them can get healthy for the playoffs. Ethan Groark did not play either due to the injury he picked up last week and that led to Kaden Hartnett coming in as the 3rd corner in passing situations. he had previously been playing WR so they must feel good about the depth in the receiver room to move him to defense.  Danny Nuccio also did not play and it sounded like the Wheaton broadcasters said his injury was a significant one as well.

the rest of the regular season will be about keeping and getting guys healthy for the playoffs.