FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[USee]

Also Oshkosh plays UWO, Linfield plays undefeated Whitworth, Carnegie Mellon play Case Western, Marietta plays Mt Union and john Carroll, Bethel plays St Johns again, and Brockport plays the NCAA. In addition there are a bunch of games Pool A teams could lose that bump them into C. Lots of variables.

So as a Wheaton fan, what do you honestly think the chances are of them getting in? Above 70% or below?

Logan Hansen will have his season simulation with probabilities out today. Last week it was 74.8% for the Thunder. This is a new system so I don't have a strong handle on it yet, still working through it. If the Thunder can get their NPI to 64.2+ that would be huge. It won't happen this week as Wheaton plays @Millikin and that result is likely to be dropped from their calculation. The Brockport issue could be huge.....

One thing seems certain, NCC is likely going to get screwed again on their seeding and have to play on the road late in the playoffs.

[NCC2010]

Also Oshkosh plays UWO, Linfield plays undefeated Whitworth, Carnegie Mellon play Case Western, Marietta plays Mt Union and john Carroll, Bethel plays St Johns again, and Brockport plays the NCAA. In addition there are a bunch of games Pool A teams could lose that bump them into C. Lots of variables.

So as a Wheaton fan, what do you honestly think the chances are of them getting in? Above 70% or below?

Logan Hansen will have his season simulation with probabilities out today. Last week it was 74.8% for the Thunder. This is a new system so I don't have a strong handle on it yet, still working through it. If the Thunder can get their NPI to 64.2+ that would be huge. It won't happen this week as Wheaton plays @Millikin and that result is likely to be dropped from their calculation. The Brockport issue could be huge.....

One thing seems certain, NCC is likely going to get screwed again on their seeding and have to play on the road late in the playoffs.

If NCC remain a top 4 seed they will be guaranteed to host through the quarter finals, which is better than last year. One thing with the top 8 seeds being protected from each other is it could lead to some flights we wouldn't have seen in prior years just due to the location of the top 8. If Cortland and Springfield are both top 8 but not top 4, they can't be in the same quadrant and one will have to fly most likely. Very interested to see if we get a more balanced bracket with a couple extra flights due to the top 8 being protected.

[USee]

Logan Hansen updated his season simulations and has Wheaton as 85% chance for Pool C if they win out:

https://x.com/LogHanRatings/status/1853811043060818408/photo/1

[CarollFan]

Logan Hansen updated his season simulations and has Wheaton as 85% chance for Pool C if they win out:

https://x.com/LogHanRatings/status/1853811043060818408/photo/1

Chances look good. From what I've read 16 teams would play in the first round. I think they would probably be one of those teams. The winners of the first round would play 1's or 2's in the second round.

[NCC2010]

Per Logan Hansen,

If all undefeated teams win out, it looks like their order in NPI would be:
1. SJU
2. Salisbury
3. North Central
4. Hardin-Simmons
5. Cortland
6. Whitworth
7. Marietta
8. Springfield
9. DePauw
10. Mount Union
11. Lake Forest
12. Hope
13. Mass-Dartmouth

Per his model, he has Mount beating Marietta and Linfield beating Whitworth which would leave the top 8 as:

1. SJU
2. Salisbury
3. North Central
4. Hardin-Simmons
5. Cortland
6. Springfield
7. DePauw
8. Mount Union

This would make St John's, Salisbury, NCC and HSU the #1 seed in each quadrant.  what would be interesting is that Cortland, Springfield and Mount are all within the 500 mile limit of Salisbury, but are not within 500 miles of any of the other top 4 seeds (Mount is within 500 miles of NCC).  However, DePauw would only be within 500 miles of NCC.  so, i would assume we would get NCC-DePauw paired in a quad, and then 1 of Mount/Cortland/Springfield paired with Salisbury.  That would leave the other 2 of Mount/Cortland/Springfield in a quad with St John's and Hardin Simmons. 

He did mention that NCC/HSU/Cortland are all very close and could reorder, in which case i assume Cortland would be paired with Springfield (if Cortland ends in top 4) and then Mount would be paired with Salisbury, and HSU (as the #5) with St Johns.

If NCC ends as #5, then they will likely get paired with St Johns or Hardin Simmons, as Cortland would pair with Springfield and Mount with Salisbury.

These pairings are not something we would've seen in the old playoff system so that is very cool imo.

[CarollFan]

Logan posted mock brackets today.

Mock Playoff Brackets

[USee]

That would be a great bracket for NCC

[CarollFan]

Discussed these wearables early in the season.
Here is an article discussing their usage in Liberty League games this year.

Wearables in LL games

[markerickson]

NCC a 75 point favorite?? I would think their HC would rest players in the second half, given the lock on the #1 ranking.

[New Tradition]

NCC a 75 point favorite?? I would think their HC would rest players in the second half, given the lock on the #1 ranking.

Clearly you've not seen the backups play.

[GusD]

I'm watching the NCC/Elmhurst game on my puter, and it was just announced that with a 1 yard TD pass, North Central QB Luke Lehnen has established an all-time record across all divisions for most TDs responsible for.

[Cardinal773]

Bummer.  North Park played a tough game all the way to the end.  Congrats to WashU.

[CarollFan]

Finals

WashU 28 NPU 21
Augie 31 Carthage 21
IWU 24 Carroll 21 (IWU scores TD with 20 seconds left)
NCC 70 Elmhurst 7
Wheaton 64 Millikin 10

Other games
Lake Forest 35 Monmouth 28
Cortland 29 Brockport 28
Grove City 30 CWRU 20
Mount Union 28 Marietta 21
HSU 27 UMHB 19
UWL 24 UWW 21
UWS 45 UWO 42

[USee]

North Central led Elmhurst 63-7 at half and failed to cover the spread...SMH.

[Gregory Sager]

Wash U 28
North Park 21

Wash U scored the winning touchdown with 48 seconds remaining in the game.

Enormously proud of the Vikings, who played with the hearts of lions today and came pretty darned close to shocking all of D3 Football World.

Thank you to all 30 seniors -- the largest NPU football senior class in 40 years -- honored on Senior Day at Hedstrand Field. They will walk off of the field for the final time next week knowing that their class turned this program around and recorded the most wins for a North Park football class since the late 1950s, before NPU was even in this league.