FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[NCC2010]

Updated mock playoff bracket by Logan.

Mock Playoff Bracket

I don't love it... but I don't hate it.

Would love to get a draw that sends Mount here though for once.

I would certainly not like that for NCC.  UWL, Bethel/Wartburg winner, Mount Union, St Johns/UWP winner just to get to the Stagg. If Logan Hansen's predictive ratings are right that would be team #6, #2, #7, #3 in the nation all before the title game.

[robertgoulet]

Unfortunately it's just the life of a school located right in the middle. If you don't do true seeding outside the top 2 seeds (and schedule based on geography) NCC is going to probably have a rough go every year.

[blue_jays]

I'm sure there will be plenty of tears shed on this board. 

https://www.iwusports.com/news/2024/11/10/football-norm-eash-announces-retirement-after-38-years-leading-iwu.aspx

The fact Norm is going out on a whooping from NCC is perfect, couldn't have scripted it better. The no handshakes with NPU was quite a career capper for him. Good riddance.

[USee]

Not sure what I think of the new NPI system so far. We are all going to have to go through a selection cycle this weekend to see how it plays out. On the one hand it takes guesswork out of the equation (and subjectivity), seems to account for SOS, and rewards teams for winning games. I think we will all like it more once we see it an understand it better. My biggest beef is the "dials" set by the current committee simply rewards win percentage above almost all else. There is zero incentive for teams like Wheaton to schedule Oshkosh and the coming Mt Union home/home when they know 9-1 gets you in and 8-2 (both to top 20 teams, one by a last second TD) has you on the outside looking in. If I'm the HC I am not going to be scheduling top opponents in this system. It also makes it much more difficult for teams like NCC, top WIAC teams, MT Union, etc to schedule games. None of that is good for D3FB.

[robertgoulet]

Not sure what I think of the new NPI system so far. We are all going to have to go through a selection cycle this weekend to see how it plays out. On the one hand it takes guesswork out of the equation (and subjectivity), seems to account for SOS, and rewards teams for winning games. I think we will all like it more once we see it an understand it better. My biggest beef is the "dials" set by the current committee simply rewards win percentage above almost all else. There is zero incentive for teams like Wheaton to schedule Oshkosh and the coming Mt Union home/home when they know 9-1 gets you in and 8-2 (both to top 20 teams, one by a last second TD) has you on the outside looking in. If I'm the HC I am not going to be scheduling top opponents in this system. It also makes it much more difficult for teams like NCC, top WIAC teams, MT Union, etc to schedule games. None of that is good for D3FB.

I do wonder if the scheduling difficulty that those top teams will face may result in them playing each other...or maybe even (probably less likely) 2 yr home-at-home scheduling agreements between conferences that rotates around (CCIW/WIAC for 2 yrs, CCIW/MIAC for 2 yrs, CCIW/OAC for 2 yrs) etc.

[CarollFan]

Not sure what I think of the new NPI system so far. We are all going to have to go through a selection cycle this weekend to see how it plays out. On the one hand it takes guesswork out of the equation (and subjectivity), seems to account for SOS, and rewards teams for winning games. I think we will all like it more once we see it an understand it better. My biggest beef is the "dials" set by the current committee simply rewards win percentage above almost all else. There is zero incentive for teams like Wheaton to schedule Oshkosh and the coming Mt Union home/home when they know 9-1 gets you in and 8-2 (both to top 20 teams, one by a last second TD) has you on the outside looking in. If I'm the HC I am not going to be scheduling top opponents in this system. It also makes it much more difficult for teams like NCC, top WIAC teams, MT Union, etc to schedule games. None of that is good for D3FB.

Yes like Wheaton is finding out this year. If you don't win that non-conference game then you have to run the table in conference or your dependent on others to make it.

[USee]

Not sure what I think of the new NPI system so far. We are all going to have to go through a selection cycle this weekend to see how it plays out. On the one hand it takes guesswork out of the equation (and subjectivity), seems to account for SOS, and rewards teams for winning games. I think we will all like it more once we see it an understand it better. My biggest beef is the "dials" set by the current committee simply rewards win percentage above almost all else. There is zero incentive for teams like Wheaton to schedule Oshkosh and the coming Mt Union home/home when they know 9-1 gets you in and 8-2 (both to top 20 teams, one by a last second TD) has you on the outside looking in. If I'm the HC I am not going to be scheduling top opponents in this system. It also makes it much more difficult for teams like NCC, top WIAC teams, MT Union, etc to schedule games. None of that is good for D3FB.

I do wonder if the scheduling difficulty that those top teams will face may result in them playing each other...or maybe even (probably less likely) 2 yr home-at-home scheduling agreements between conferences that rotates around (CCIW/WIAC for 2 yrs, CCIW/MIAC for 2 yrs, CCIW/OAC for 2 yrs) etc.

That's probably one of the main reasons NCC and, to a lesser degree, Wheaton voted for WashU to stay in the CCIW. One less game to schedule.

[robertgoulet]

That's probably one of the main reasons NCC and, to a lesser degree, Wheaton voted for WashU to stay in the CCIW. One less game to schedule.

One less game to schedule and a game against a +.500 (usually) team that also probably SHOULD be a win.

Of course, with no Wash U to hand out losses to everyone else then IWU and NP would both by +.500 so maybe it's a wash (U).

[NCC2010]

Unfortunately it's just the life of a school located right in the middle. If you don't do true seeding outside the top 2 seeds (and schedule based on geography) NCC is going to probably have a rough go every year.

Agree, but there are also iterations of this bracket where NCC does not have to play a WIAC team in the round of 32. A lot depends on how the top 4/8 falls as NCC could be the #1 seed and hosting in the same quadrant the likes of Mount Union/DePauw/Hope as the #2 seed, or could simply be a 2 seed in the Hardin Simmons or St Johns bracket. They will have a tough path regardless but would rather not have that specific path if possible to avoid.

[wheatie barefooter]

Logan Hansen's projected playoff bracket includes Wheaton and excludes Wabash, Oshkosh and UMHB.  He is, most likely, projecting losses for both Wabash and Oshkosh ... but why is UMHB being left out?  They are a heavy favorite to win, to put it mildly.  Is it because their NPI will drop considerably due to a win vs. 1-7 Howard Payne?  While most teams are able to throw out a win or two against weak opponents to bolster their NPI, UMHB doesn't have that luxury.  I would be interested to see some data analysis of how much UMHB's NPI will drop with a win this week.

[USee]

My understanding is that UMHB doesn't yet have the required 5 wins so this week's game will certainly count and it won't be helpful.

[USee]

Unfortunately it's just the life of a school located right in the middle. If you don't do true seeding outside the top 2 seeds (and schedule based on geography) NCC is going to probably have a rough go every year.

Agree, but there are also iterations of this bracket where NCC does not have to play a WIAC team in the round of 32. A lot depends on how the top 4/8 falls as NCC could be the #1 seed and hosting in the same quadrant the likes of Mount Union/DePauw/Hope as the #2 seed, or could simply be a 2 seed in the Hardin Simmons or St Johns bracket. They will have a tough path regardless but would rather not have that specific path if possible to avoid.

With one of the WIAC title contenders being Stout, who lost at home to Carroll, I wouldn't think NCC would be too worried about a WIAC playoff matchup this year......

[CarollFan]

Logan Hansen's projected playoff bracket includes Wheaton and excludes Wabash, Oshkosh and UMHB.  He is, most likely, projecting losses for both Wabash and Oshkosh ... but why is UMHB being left out?  They are a heavy favorite to win, to put it mildly.  Is it because their NPI will drop considerably due to a win vs. 1-7 Howard Payne?  While most teams are able to throw out a win or two against weak opponents to bolster their NPI, UMHB doesn't have that luxury.  I would be interested to see some data analysis of how much UMHB's NPI will drop with a win this week.

UMHB currently has an NPI of 64.215. Logan in his season simulation has them ending with 63.2.
Howard Payne is 1-6 with a current NPI win value of 63.93 (that will go down with the loss) plus UMHB is home so you multiple the win value by .9.  63.93 x .9 =57.537. The problem UMHB has is that will be its 5th win so they have to use that game NPI and it will lower its overall NPI.

I'll add this is why in the NPI world 6 wins is so much better then 5. You get to drop your worst win from your NPI calculation.

UMHB also is in a 4 team conference. Each team plays each other twice. They have 2 losses to Hardin Simmons and 2 wins against East Texas Baptist used in their NPI calculation. Harding Simmons plays at East Texas Baptist. Hardin Simmons is favored so East Texas Baptist will take a home loss and most likely their NPI will go down. On top of adding the second Howard Payne game, these other game NPI's will get adjusted. With Howard Payne taking another loss the first game against Howard Payne will get adjusted to. The ASC teams are in a wierd scenario where they play each other twice.

[D3Rookie]

When will playoff teams and brackets be announced?

[WUPHF]

When will playoff teams and brackets be announced?

The brackets will be announced on Sunday at 4:00 Central time.  They will do a selection show at NCAA.com and publish the bracket after they finish the show.