FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Cardinal773]

When will playoff teams and brackets be announced?

Sunday after, dude.  NCAA will do a web show thingy.  Then we can all shut the heck up about who's going to make the tournament and start complaining about how crappy NCC's path is and how easy Mount and Cortland have it, blah, blah, blah.  Also, Rookie, you will see many posts about D3 islands.  Ignore those unless you live in Texas or Oregon.  Boom.  You're not a rookie anymore! Now you can change your username.

[NCC2010]

Unfortunately it's just the life of a school located right in the middle. If you don't do true seeding outside the top 2 seeds (and schedule based on geography) NCC is going to probably have a rough go every year.

Agree, but there are also iterations of this bracket where NCC does not have to play a WIAC team in the round of 32. A lot depends on how the top 4/8 falls as NCC could be the #1 seed and hosting in the same quadrant the likes of Mount Union/DePauw/Hope as the #2 seed, or could simply be a 2 seed in the Hardin Simmons or St Johns bracket. They will have a tough path regardless but would rather not have that specific path if possible to avoid.

With one of the WIAC title contenders being Stout, who lost at home to Carroll, I wouldn't think NCC would be too worried about a WIAC playoff matchup this year......

That's fair.  I guess its more specifically UWL I would rather not face in round of 32 because i think they are a top 10 team and played NCC really tough last year.  Their 2 losses in conference were by 3 in OT to UWP in a game they were winning by 15 with under 7 minutes left and to UWO by 1 in a game they were up by 19 late in the 3rd quarter.

I personally think Jack Studer is a top 5 WR in D3 and with all the injuries to the NCC defensive backs i think that is the clear weakness of the team heading into the playoffs. Both safeties to start the season have not played since Augustana. Kenny Rutherford is out for the season and Brayden Garrigan I believe will be back for the playoffs but broke his hand/wrist in the Augie game.  I believe the NCC commentators said there is a possibility Jahron Williams, who started all 15 games at safety last year but hasnt played this year, has a chance to return for the playoffs but its not guaranteed.

[NCC2010]

Logan Hansen's projected playoff bracket includes Wheaton and excludes Wabash, Oshkosh and UMHB.  He is, most likely, projecting losses for both Wabash and Oshkosh ... but why is UMHB being left out?  They are a heavy favorite to win, to put it mildly.  Is it because their NPI will drop considerably due to a win vs. 1-7 Howard Payne?  While most teams are able to throw out a win or two against weak opponents to bolster their NPI, UMHB doesn't have that luxury.  I would be interested to see some data analysis of how much UMHB's NPI will drop with a win this week.

UMHB currently has an NPI of 64.215. Logan in his season simulation has them ending with 63.2.
Howard Payne is 1-6 with a current NPI win value of 63.93 (that will go down with the loss) plus UMHB is home so you multiple the win value by .9.  63.93 x .9 =57.537. The problem UMHB has is that will be its 5th win so they have to use that game NPI and it will lower its overall NPI.

I'll add this is why in the NPI world 6 wins is so much better then 5. You get to drop your worst win from your NPI calculation.

UMHB also is in a 4 team conference. Each team plays each other twice. They have 2 losses to Hardin Simmons and 2 wins against East Texas Baptist used in their NPI calculation. Harding Simmons plays at East Texas Baptist. Hardin Simmons is favored so East Texas Baptist will take a home loss and most likely their NPI will go down. On top of adding the second Howard Payne game, these other game NPI's will get adjusted. With Howard Payne taking another loss the first game against Howard Payne will get adjusted to. The ASC teams are in a wierd scenario where they play each other twice.

What is interesting about the NPI is per Logan's below post on X is that UMHB can actually max out their NPI (64.8) higher than quite a few teams ahead of them.  I assume it would mean all of the ASC teams non-conference opponents also winning? Not 100% sure but Hardin Simmons can technically achieve the highest overall NPI this same way (2nd link below).  i believe due to the fewer games within their conference their NPI #s are more volatile.

https://x.com/LogHanRatings/status/1856010449285734751

https://x.com/LogHanRatings/status/1856056339165774316

[CarollFan]

Logan Hansen's projected playoff bracket includes Wheaton and excludes Wabash, Oshkosh and UMHB.  He is, most likely, projecting losses for both Wabash and Oshkosh ... but why is UMHB being left out?  They are a heavy favorite to win, to put it mildly.  Is it because their NPI will drop considerably due to a win vs. 1-7 Howard Payne?  While most teams are able to throw out a win or two against weak opponents to bolster their NPI, UMHB doesn't have that luxury.  I would be interested to see some data analysis of how much UMHB's NPI will drop with a win this week.

UMHB currently has an NPI of 64.215. Logan in his season simulation has them ending with 63.2.
Howard Payne is 1-6 with a current NPI win value of 63.93 (that will go down with the loss) plus UMHB is home so you multiple the win value by .9.  63.93 x .9 =57.537. The problem UMHB has is that will be its 5th win so they have to use that game NPI and it will lower its overall NPI.

I'll add this is why in the NPI world 6 wins is so much better then 5. You get to drop your worst win from your NPI calculation.

UMHB also is in a 4 team conference. Each team plays each other twice. They have 2 losses to Hardin Simmons and 2 wins against East Texas Baptist used in their NPI calculation. Harding Simmons plays at East Texas Baptist. Hardin Simmons is favored so East Texas Baptist will take a home loss and most likely their NPI will go down. On top of adding the second Howard Payne game, these other game NPI's will get adjusted. With Howard Payne taking another loss the first game against Howard Payne will get adjusted to. The ASC teams are in a wierd scenario where they play each other twice.

What is interesting about the NPI is per Logan's below post on X is that UMHB can actually max out their NPI (64.8) higher than quite a few teams ahead of them.  I assume it would mean all of the ASC teams non-conference opponents also winning? Not 100% sure but Hardin Simmons can technically achieve the highest overall NPI this same way (2nd link below).  i believe due to the fewer games within their conference their NPI #s are more volatile.

https://x.com/LogHanRatings/status/1856010449285734751

https://x.com/LogHanRatings/status/1856056339165774316

Right now UMHB has one non conference game included in their NPI calculation, a win against UWW. I think for them to get their max they may need East Texas Baptist to upset HS since they have 2 wins against East Texas Baptist in their NPI calculation.

HS has 3 non conference games included in their NPI calculation.

[USee]

Unfortunately it's just the life of a school located right in the middle. If you don't do true seeding outside the top 2 seeds (and schedule based on geography) NCC is going to probably have a rough go every year.

Agree, but there are also iterations of this bracket where NCC does not have to play a WIAC team in the round of 32. A lot depends on how the top 4/8 falls as NCC could be the #1 seed and hosting in the same quadrant the likes of Mount Union/DePauw/Hope as the #2 seed, or could simply be a 2 seed in the Hardin Simmons or St Johns bracket. They will have a tough path regardless but would rather not have that specific path if possible to avoid.

With one of the WIAC title contenders being Stout, who lost at home to Carroll, I wouldn't think NCC would be too worried about a WIAC playoff matchup this year......

That's fair.  I guess its more specifically UWL I would rather not face in round of 32 because i think they are a top 10 team and played NCC really tough last year.  Their 2 losses in conference were by 3 in OT to UWP in a game they were winning by 15 with under 7 minutes left and to UWO by 1 in a game they were up by 19 late in the 3rd quarter.

I personally think Jack Studer is a top 5 WR in D3 and with all the injuries to the NCC defensive backs i think that is the clear weakness of the team heading into the playoffs. Both safeties to start the season have not played since Augustana. Kenny Rutherford is out for the season and Brayden Garrigan I believe will be back for the playoffs but broke his hand/wrist in the Augie game.  I believe the NCC commentators said there is a possibility Jahron Williams, who started all 15 games at safety last year but hasnt played this year, has a chance to return for the playoffs but its not guaranteed.

I think UWPlatteville and UWLaCrosse are the most dangerous WIAC teams. Remember Oshkosh survived a late 4th down PI call against Wheaton and scored the winning pts with under a minute to play at home. We all know what NCC did to Wheaton. I don't know what we have with WIAC teams this year in terms of competitive teams nationally. History tells us not to underestimate any WIAC team EVER. And playing high level teams week in and week out has to take it's toll. I would expect close games and surprising results (not Carroll over Stout surprising....SMH).

[CarollFan]

There are obviously some teams in the playoffs with some good run defenses. Any chance against NCC you have to slow down their run game.

Top 5 run defenses right now are Bethel, DePauw, Grove City, St. John's, Hope.

[CarollFan]

Logan Wheaton odds based on what other teams do.
This one got my head spinning.

Logan Wheaton Odds

[D3Rookie]

That is a lot of data.  I had to drink a Red Bull to work through it. I like what he seems to be getting at here. 

Others paint a picture that Wheaton will be on the outside looking in without help from an upset or two. 

This suggests Wheaton can clear the cut-line in many ways, especially if DePauw wins (which isn't an upset). While the Thunder need some things to fall in place for sure, I wouldn't consider those to be "upsets" if/when they occur.

If nothing else, I feel like I know who to root for.

[USee]

Logan's post basically says Wheaton fans want to root for a win over NPU and at least 1 or 2 of the following (in order from most likely to least likely):

Depauw over Wabash (Depauw favored by 21.8)
UWP over UWSP (UWP favored by 8.3)
UWRF over UWO (RF favored by 5.9)
Westminster over Grove City (Grove City favored by 7.2)
Whitworth over Linfield (Go Rod Sandberg!) (Linfield favored by 7.9)
Case Western over Carnegie Mellon (CMU favored by 11.5)
Southwestern over Texas Lutheran (TLU favored by 12.5)
Dickinson over Ursinius (Ursinius favored by 14.1)

Logan says if the top two most likely outcomes happen (Depauw and UWP both win) Wheaton's chances are 91%. He lists other combinations as well but suffice to say if Depauw wins and any of the next three games go Wheaton's way (UWRF, Westminster, Grove City), they are 95%+ to get into the field. There are other paths as well which is why Logan puts Wheaton at 82% to get into the field.

The bad outcomes start with a Wabash upset and most of the other favorites winning.

[USee]

Probably not a lot of intrigue for the NPU @Wheaton game this week. It should be more exciting than Norm's final game though!

NPU has made it interesting this year. Their game against WashU last Saturday was competitive the whole way. Each team traded scores with WashU driving to take the lead for good with under a minute left in a one score game. I have watched NPU a couple times now they are legit. This game features the CCIW's #1 and #2 passing offenses vs the #1 and #2 passing defenses. The top 3 WR's in the league (in terms of production) and the top two QB's (in terms of passing production). NPU's offense is really dependent on Matt Eck, who is having a tremendous year. They often line up with 3 or 4 WR's but really two guys are responsible for a majority of their production in #1 Jereme Ombogo (5-9 with great speed) and #3 Wesley McCloud (6-2). NPU's running threat is minimal (74 ypg) but their RB, Marcel Love is the 3rd most productive receiver in this pass offense. Eck is not that athletic and doesn't run much, but he can scramble well to buy time to get his recievers open. He has great rapport with Ombogo and McCloud. I was surprised WashU wasn't more physical with these guys. They played off-man coverage and allowed these two free releases most of the time. Eck throws the ball on time and with accuracy which is a big reason he has been so good this year.

Defensively, NPU's strength, in my opinion, is their 2 LB's and their 2 corners. LB's Jaydin Miller and Egan Bender are the leading tacklers and have a great nose for the ball. Handler Hodge and Samuel Aguirre are athletic cover corners and the entire secondary are very good tacklers. NPU has given up a lot on the ground but their pass defense is one of the best in the league.

Wheaton's lock down cover corner, Max Wilson will be the key this Saturday. I think Wilson is the best cover corner in the league and one of the very best in the country (that I've seen). There is no question the NPU pass game will be a big challenge. I think Eck will challenge Wilson and his co-conspirator Riley Schwartz often and their ability to hold up and let Johanik, Parrish and company get to Eck will be the key.

I also think Wheaton needs to establish their run game with Weeks as that's where the NPU defense has been vulnerable. If NPU can get some big plays from their WR's and slow down the Thunder rush attack, this game could be close.

Either way, I am impressed with the talent Coach Rooker has assembled. If he continues to attract talent to Chicago, NPU could easily keep rising within the conference.

[USee]

Here are where NPU and Wheaton's skill players rank among the conference statistical leaders:

QB:
1    Eck,Matt (North Park) 214-334,  64.1%,  2,510 yds,  24 TD,  8 INT,  278.9 ypg,  146.1 eff
2    Forcucci,Mark (Wheaton) 156-222,  70.3%,  2,020 yds,  23 TD,  3 INT,  252.5 ypg,  178.2 eff

WR:
1   Bonga,Ben (Wheaton)  63 rec,  1055 yds,  15 TD,  16.7 ypc,  7.0 rec/g,  117.2 ypg
2   Ombogo,Jereme (NPU) 50 rec,  862 yds,  11 TD,  17.2 ypc,  5.6 rec/g,  95.8 ypg
3   McCloud,Wesley (NPU) 61 rec,  822 yds,  6 TD,  13.5 ypc,  6.8 rec/g,  91.3 ypg

Davis Reeves from Wheaton is #15 and Marcel Love from NPU is #20 in WR stats.

[CarollFan]

Probably not a lot of intrigue for the NPU @Wheaton game this week. It should be more exciting than Norm's final game though!

NPU has made it interesting this year. Their game against WashU last Saturday was competitive the whole way. Each team traded scores with WashU driving to take the lead for good with under a minute left in a one score game. I have watched NPU a couple times now they are legit. This game features the CCIW's #1 and #2 passing offenses vs the #1 and #2 passing defenses. The top 3 WR's in the league (in terms of production) and the top two QB's (in terms of passing production). NPU's offense is really dependent on Matt Eck, who is having a tremendous year. They often line up with 3 or 4 WR's but really two guys are responsible for a majority of their production in #1 Jereme Ombogo (5-9 with great speed) and #3 Wesley McCloud (6-2). NPU's running threat is minimal (74 ypg) but their RB, Marcel Love is the 3rd most productive receiver in this pass offense. Eck is not that athletic and doesn't run much, but he can scramble well to buy time to get his recievers open. He has great rapport with Ombogo and McCloud. I was surprised WashU wasn't more physical with these guys. They played off-man coverage and allowed these two free releases most of the time. Eck throws the ball on time and with accuracy which is a big reason he has been so good this year.

Defensively, NPU's strength, in my opinion, is their 2 LB's and their 2 corners. LB's Jaydin Miller and Egan Bender are the leading tacklers and have a great nose for the ball. Handler Hodge and Samuel Aguirre are athletic cover corners and the entire secondary are very good tacklers. NPU has given up a lot on the ground but their pass defense is one of the best in the league.

Wheaton's lock down cover corner, Max Wilson will be the key this Saturday. I think Wilson is the best cover corner in the league and one of the very best in the country (that I've seen). There is no question the NPU pass game will be a big challenge. I think Eck will challenge Wilson and his co-conspirator Riley Schwartz often and their ability to hold up and let Johanik, Parrish and company get to Eck will be the key.

I also think Wheaton needs to establish their run game with Weeks as that's where the NPU defense has been vulnerable. If NPU can get some big plays from their WR's and slow down the Thunder rush attack, this game could be close.

Either way, I am impressed with the talent Coach Rooker has assembled. If he continues to attract talent to Chicago, NPU could easily keep rising within the conference.

What a climax to the regular season if NPU pulled the upset.

[Gregory Sager]

What a climax to the regular season millennium thus far if NPU pulled the upset.

FTFY.

[D3Rookie]

I love an underdog story but I'm anticipating a decisive Thunder victory. NPU showed a lot of grit in almost taking down a WashU last week. However, where WashU was flat, Wheaton should be fired up with their playoff hopes on the line. I'd expect the Thunder to have much tighter and more physical coverage on those receivers and to bring more pressure in the backfield. If we were doing pick-em, I'd have Wheaton winning 42-10.

[USee]

D3football.com has a good feature on the playoff picture (thanks Wally). Wheaton fans need the following teams to win Saturday so they don't  get inserted into an already large Pool C picture:

Whitworth (vs Linfield)
Depauw (v Wabash)
Springfield (@ SUNY Maritime)
UWPlatteville (@Stout)

Any of those fall the wrong way and Wheaton's odds get much longer.....