FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Gregory Sager]

I love an underdog story but I'm anticipating a decisive Thunder victory. NPU showed a lot of grit in almost taking down a WashU last week. However, where WashU was flat, Wheaton should be fired up with their playoff hopes on the line.

"Flat"? So NPU gets no credit for the fact that Wash U's formidable offense finished the day nearly 100 yards and two touchdowns short of what had been its season averages coming into the game? It was all just a matter of the Bears not playing full-out? Sorry, but "a lot of grit" doesn't cover that much territory in terms of giving NPU its due.

(Also, let's not forget that Wash U was playing to secure the league's berth to the Culver's Isthmus Bowl. It's not as though the Bears are simply playing out the string the last couple of weeks of the regular season.)

The Vikings aren't simply every Saturday's plucky underdog whom everybody except for the opposing team's fans cheer for as some sort of feel-good story. The Vikings are a good football team in their own right. If you want a second opinion on that, email Wash U head coach Aaron Keen and ask him. I'm in no way asserting that NPU is in the CCIW's upper echelon -- fingers crossed that Kyle Rooker gets the Vikings there eventually -- but, unless your team picks up its mail in Naperville, the Park needs to be taken very seriously as an opponent. And kudos to USee, because he gets that. (We won't mention that it seems ever-so-slightly self-serving of him to only bring it up the week before NPU plays Wheaton, because that would be an uncharitable observation.  )

[D3Rookie]

I'd love to watch the replay to see if I can understand your viewpoint.

What's your prediction for Thunder/Viking score? I'm gathering my 42-10 take has you riled up as my as me labeling Vikings as "gritty" vs "great."

[USee]

Greg-LOL. To be fair, this is probably the only preview I have offered this season so you should be flattered!

NPU can certainly beat Wheaton and could have easily won last Saturday vs WashU.

[Gregory Sager]

I'd love to watch the replay to see if I can understand your viewpoint.

What's your prediction for Thunder/Viking score? I'm gathering my 42-10 take has you riled up as my as me labeling Vikings as "gritty" vs "great."

Nope, because a 42-10 score is definitely within the realm of possibility. (It's also possible that Wheaton wins by a score of 38-28, or something to that effect.) And "gritty vs. great" is a false dichotomy. Not only did I not try to pass off the Vikings as "great," I even qualified the adjective that I did use for them, "good":

I'm in no way asserting that NPU is in the CCIW's upper echelon -- fingers crossed that Kyle Rooker gets the Vikings there eventually -- but, unless your team picks up its mail in Naperville, the Park needs to be taken very seriously as an opponent.

(An alternative reading of your post is that you're referring to the upcoming game this Saturday as "gritty vs. great" -- the straight reading of your post doesn't indicate that, since the direct object you used is "Vikings" rather than "Vikings vs. Thunder" -- and if referencing next Saturday's game was your intent, I have no issue with your take in terms of assessing the matchup in the western suburbs two days from now.)

I meant what I said. What riled me up was not your prediction, it was your writing off Wash U's last-minute win as a case of the Bears being "flat." I not only called that ballgame, I watched it again the next day. I saw absolutely no indication that the Bears were giving it less than 100%, and I saw that Aaron Keen's coaching staff was astute in picking up on NPU's vulnerabilities and was making good play calls and in-game adjustments.

Wash U only won by virtue of a score with 43 seconds remaining not because the Bears played poorly, but because the Vikings are a good team that played very well.

Greg-LOL. To be fair, this is probably the only preview I have offered this season so you should be flattered!

Duly noted.

NPU can certainly beat Wheaton and could have easily won last Saturday vs WashU.

I think that NPU's chances of winning at McCully on Saturday are remote, but they're not remote enough for me to pull out the Jim-Carrey-in-Dumb and Dumber gif.

[D3Rookie]

I'd love to watch the replay to see if I can understand your viewpoint.

What's your prediction for Thunder/Viking score? I'm gathering my 42-10 take has you riled up as my as me labeling Vikings as "gritty" vs "great."

Nope, because a 42-10 score is definitely within the realm of possibility. (It's also possible that Wheaton wins by a score of 38-28, or something to that effect.) And "gritty vs. great" is a false dichotomy. Not only did I not try to pass off the Vikings as "great," I even qualified the adjective that I did use for them, "good":

I'm in no way asserting that NPU is in the CCIW's upper echelon -- fingers crossed that Kyle Rooker gets the Vikings there eventually -- but, unless your team picks up its mail in Naperville, the Park needs to be taken very seriously as an opponent.

(An alternative reading of your post is that you're referring to the upcoming game this Saturday as "gritty vs. great" -- the straight reading of your post doesn't indicate that, since the direct object you used is "Vikings" rather than "Vikings vs. Thunder" -- and if referencing next Saturday's game was your intent, I have no issue with your take in terms of assessing the matchup in the western suburbs two days from now.)

I meant what I said. What riled me up was not your prediction, it was your writing off Wash U's last-minute win as a case of the Bears being "flat." I not only called that ballgame, I watched it again the next day. I saw absolutely no indication that the Bears were giving it less than 100%, and I saw that Aaron Keen's coaching staff was astute in picking up on NPU's vulnerabilities and was making good play calls and in-game adjustments.

Wash U only won by virtue of a score with 43 seconds remaining not because the Bears played poorly, but because the Vikings are a good team that played very well.

Greg-LOL. To be fair, this is probably the only preview I have offered this season so you should be flattered!

Duly noted.

NPU can certainly beat Wheaton and could have easily won last Saturday vs WashU.

I think that NPU's chances of winning at McCully on Saturday are remote, but they're not remote enough for me to pull out the Jim-Carrey-in-Dumb and Dumber gif.

Ahh ... didn't know your connection to NPU. I wouldn't have bothered replying to your tirade had I known.

Now that I know, I'll just say this. I think your baby's special —- but I probably don't think they are as special as you do ... and that shouldn't bother you.

As for WashU, they absolutely looked flat to me last Saturday (and they did in the Wheaton game as well ... and before you get started, that isn't an indictment of Wheaton who looks to have a really solid football team to me).

[GusD]

D3football.com has a good feature on the playoff picture (thanks Wally). Wheaton fans need the following teams to win Saturday so they don't  get inserted into an already large Pool C picture:

Whitworth (vs Linfield)
Depauw (v Wabash)
Springfield (@ SUNY Maritime)
UWPlatteville (@Stout)

Any of those fall the wrong way and Wheaton's odds get much longer.....

However, while there are certainly no guarantees, all the teams Wheaton needs s/b favored, correct?

[CarollFan]

D3football.com has a good feature on the playoff picture (thanks Wally). Wheaton fans need the following teams to win Saturday so they don't  get inserted into an already large Pool C picture:

Whitworth (vs Linfield)
Depauw (v Wabash)
Springfield (@ SUNY Maritime)
UWPlatteville (@Stout)

Any of those fall the wrong way and Wheaton's odds get much longer.....

However, while there are certainly no guarantees, all the teams Wheaton needs s/b favored, correct?

According to Logan he has Linfield favored over Whitworth. The other 3 they need to win are favored.

[Gregory Sager]

Ahh ... didn't know your connection to NPU. I wouldn't have bothered replying to your tirade had I known.

Hey, I'm not a complete homer. I'm fine with people criticizing the Vikings when it's warranted. For instance, USee talked about NPU's weakness in the running game on both sides of the ball, and I fully agree with him.

Now that I know, I'll just say this. I think your baby's special —- but I probably don't think they are as special as you do ... and that shouldn't bother you.

Of course it doesn't. I'm not just NPU's play-by-play broadcaster, I'm also a fan and a North Park alumnus. I'm heavily involved in North Park athletics; in fact, I'm currently the chair of the Viking Hall of Fame selection committee. If somebody other than a current or former North Park football player or coach (plus perhaps the AD and a zealous football mom or two) told me that they were more emotionally invested in the Vikings than me, I'd tell them that they were full of it.

As for WashU, they absolutely looked flat to me last Saturday (and they did in the Wheaton game as well ... and before you get started, that isn't an indictment of Wheaton who looks to have a really solid football team to me).

No problem. I'm also fine with agreeing to disagree.

[NCC2010]

Logan's post basically says Wheaton fans want to root for a win over NPU and at least 1 or 2 of the following (in order from most likely to least likely):

Depauw over Wabash (Depauw favored by 21.8)
UWP over UWSP (UWP favored by 8.3)
UWRF over UWO (RF favored by 5.9)
Westminster over Grove City (Grove City favored by 7.2)
Whitworth over Linfield (Go Rod Sandberg!) (Linfield favored by 7.9)
Case Western over Carnegie Mellon (CMU favored by 11.5)
Southwestern over Texas Lutheran (TLU favored by 12.5)
Dickinson over Ursinius (Ursinius favored by 14.1)

Logan says if the top two most likely outcomes happen (Depauw and UWP both win) Wheaton's chances are 91%. He lists other combinations as well but suffice to say if Depauw wins and any of the next three games go Wheaton's way (UWRF, Westminster, Grove City), they are 95%+ to get into the field. There are other paths as well which is why Logan puts Wheaton at 82% to get into the field.

The bad outcomes start with a Wabash upset and most of the other favorites winning.

Logan just posted that he had the WIAC tiebreakers incorrect.  there is a scenario where Stout wins and does NOT get the Pool A bid. 

If UWW, UWL, and UWRF all win, Stout would not win the AQ.  This particular scenario would give Wheaton better chances of making Pool C than we had thought with those 3 games going that exact way, according to his simulations. 

https://x.com/LogHanRatings/status/1857435770329399513

[Thunderdome21]

Regarding the Wheaton-NPU game, so far this year, the Vikings haven't proved they can beat teams on the road (except for Augustana). They are really good at home, but they play mediocrely away from the Holmgren complex, losing to Elmhurst and Carthage---teams the Vikings were clearly better than as well as getting destroyed at NCC. It didn't surprise me that they almost pulled the upset with WashU because it was a home game, and the NPU brought their A-game. For NPU to beat Wheaton, they need to bring the same mentality they bring to their home games at McCully Stadium for them to realistically have a chance.

Even if NPU does bring their A-game, so much depends on how Wheaton's squad plays because they haven't peaked yet this year. IMHO, the Thunder are a much better team than last year (except for the O-line) especially on defense and has more potential to do damage in the playoffs than the previous 2 years (if they make it). But Wheaton still hasn't played well for an entire 4 quarters of a game in all three phases of the game. Some of that is due to injuries earlier in the year and some of that is due to Wheaton relying on some very talented underclassmen in key positions that are experiencing some growing pains  In the past, Wheaton's had the luxury where they just reloaded with talented juniors and seniors at every position, especially defense. But last year and this year, that hasn't been the case. I expect the game to be close in the first half, and then Wheaton will dominate and pull away in the 2nd half. 

[CarollFan]

Regarding the Wheaton-NPU game, so far this year, the Vikings haven't proved they can beat teams on the road (except for Augustana). They are really good at home, but they play mediocrely away from the Holmgren complex, losing to Elmhurst and Carthage---teams the Vikings were clearly better than as well as getting destroyed at NCC. It didn't surprise me that they almost pulled the upset with WashU because it was a home game, and the NPU brought their A-game. For NPU to beat Wheaton, they need to bring the same mentality they bring to their home games at McCully Stadium for them to realistically have a chance.

Speaking of that Elmhurst/NPU game, Logan posted the biggest upsets this year across all of D3FB using his spread. Elmhurst/NPU was #1 as NPU was favored by 30.

One thing about a Wheaton loss is it would mean season over as WashU assuming they win would go to Isthmus most likely.

[CarollFan]

Frank in the podcast today picks St. John's to win the national championship.

[New Tradition]

Frank in the podcast today picks St. John's to win the national championship.

It's as good a pick as any.  I don't see any team being unbeatable this year.  I wouldn't be shocked if it were them or Bethel or NCC or Cortland, or a UW team, or HS, or...

[WUPHF]

In regards to last weekend's Washington University vs. North Park football game, it is hard to tell on the live stream, but I think you guys are both right.  Washington University looked flat at times, but the final possession was as good as it gets.  North Park football is good.

[NCC2010]

Since we are heading into the last week of the season, wondering what everyone's thoughts are on the CCIW DPOY?

My guess is NCC will nominate either BJ Adamchik or John (JP) Sullivan. Last year's winner, Martin Egbo, has been banged up and doesn't have the stats to repeat imo.  I assume other names in the running just based off CCIW statistical leaders are Peter Johanik from Wheaton, Zach McNees from IWU, & Jaydin Miller from NP.