FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[robertgoulet]

Yes, natural turf and rain. Also wondering about the crown of a soccer field. Is it more? Is it less? Could it effect the game?

Texas Southern plays their home football games there so I don't think it's too out of the ordinary.

[robertgoulet]

Patiently waiting for the staff picks and Usee's breakdown.

 

[New Tradition]

I wouldn't expect to see Quick Hits until tomorrow--it's usually day before.  There's also usually a pre-Stagg Bowl podcast in there with a musical number I'm hoping we get to hear before the game Sunday, too!

[robertgoulet]

I wouldn't expect to see Quick Hits until tomorrow--it's usually day before.  There's also usually a pre-Stagg Bowl podcast in there with a musical number I'm hoping we get to hear before the game Sunday, too!

Can't imagine that releasing on a Saturday would be the best idea for getting the most traffic. I would listen to the pod today but not tomorrow and checking a website that isn't social media is hit or miss on a weekend.

That said, I may be in the minority on that.

[D3fanboy]

I wouldn't expect to see Quick Hits until tomorrow--it's usually day before.  There's also usually a pre-Stagg Bowl podcast in there with a musical number I'm hoping we get to hear before the game Sunday, too!

Can't imagine that releasing on a Saturday would be the best idea for getting the most traffic. I would listen to the pod today but not tomorrow and checking a website that isn't social media is hit or miss on a weekend.

That said, I may be in the minority on that.

releasing the pod and "expert" picks on a Saturday sounds sort of like having the Stagg Bowl in Sunday prime time against the last, most meaningful NFL game of the year

[NCC2010]

Here are some smaller things I will be watching for on Sunday...

Special teams: NCC allowed 2 fake punts for first downs during the playoffs, one against Hope where the punter just took off and ran 20 yards untouched and then a nice pop pass by Susquehanna that also converted for a 1st down. Have to assume Mount has at least 1 fake they have been practicing based off that.
Will NCC settle for FGs on 4th and short in the redzone or go for it? They have leaned towards kicking in the playoffs with Andre Casas going 5/5 thus far, however they usually are very aggressive.

On Offense: Really excited to see the matchup between the NCC offensive line and Mount's front.  Moore, Brown and Factor were all named All American's for Mount and will be the best front NCC has seen this year for sure.  One prediction I have is Lehnen will have a long run off a QB draw. QB Draw has been a staple of the offense since Lehnen started playing and the coaching staff called it all the time, almost too often, in the past few seasons particularly on 3rd and long. They scaled way back calling it this year, but i think they call it a couple times on Sunday.

on defense: interested to see if Mount plays Beaudrie more since he gives the Mount O another element with his legs.  DeShields isnt completely immobile, in fact JHU's AA Safety Carson Bourdo knocked himself out of the game on the first drive in the semis trying to tackle him on a scramble, got up and was woozy and didnt play another snap.  They have also called a few QB keepers for DeShields near the goal line that he has converted, but Beaudrie is the better runner and the exact kind of QB who has given NCC D issues in the past. 
NCC defense has looked way better with the return of Nuccio and Garrigan to the lineup in the playoffs, but I still think Mount scores 28 or so on them (I also said Sus would do this so take my comments with a grain of salt). The matchup i will be focused on in the passing game is Jahmar Daniel against Tyrell Sanders.  NCC i assume will sell out to slow down Echeverry, which should leave Daniel and Sanders 1 on 1 quite a bit. Been impressed from what i have seen of Sanders making catches in contested situations in the playoffs.

Lastly, hoping the grass field doesnt play a factor in a bad way. NCC hasnt played on grass since the 2019 opener at Christopher Newport, and I believe D3fanboy mentioned Mount hasnt played on grass since 2016. 

Looking forward to a great game and hopefully a win for the Cards!

[GusD]

Especially after so easily vaporizing Susquehanna, I imagine the Cardinals will be favored to capture the Championship Sunday night. I too will be paying attention to some "smaller" things which could potentially turn things upside down and result in a Raiders victory. Specifically, I believe two factors might easily make a difference in the final outcome;

1. NCC must avoid any "dumb ass" penalties—-things like piling on, late hits both out of bounds and on the Raider QB, targeting, throwing a punch, or criticizing the refs.

2. Winning the turnover battle will be crucial—-especially if weather conditions are unfavorable.

[CardinalAlum]

Congrats to Luke Lehnen on his back to back Gagliardi trophies!!

[Cardinal773]

Congrats to Luke Lehnen on his back to back Gagliardi trophies!!

D3fanboy's gonna have an aneurysm with this news.

[Pat Coleman]

I wouldn't expect to see Quick Hits until tomorrow--it's usually day before.  There's also usually a pre-Stagg Bowl podcast in there with a musical number I'm hoping we get to hear before the game Sunday, too!

Can't imagine that releasing on a Saturday would be the best idea for getting the most traffic. I would listen to the pod today but not tomorrow and checking a website that isn't social media is hit or miss on a weekend.

That said, I may be in the minority on that.

Sorry, man -- we can't do the podcast before media day, and media day is two days before the game.

Meanwhile, you should be able to find the podcast on social media.

[D3fanboy]

Congrats to Luke Lehnen on his back to back Gagliardi trophies!!

D3fanboy's gonna have an aneurysm with this news.

nah, he deserves it.  really made the best use of his 5th year of college. Hopefully the NCC guys on twitter call their doctors after 4 hours though

[robertgoulet]

I wouldn't expect to see Quick Hits until tomorrow--it's usually day before.  There's also usually a pre-Stagg Bowl podcast in there with a musical number I'm hoping we get to hear before the game Sunday, too!

Can't imagine that releasing on a Saturday would be the best idea for getting the most traffic. I would listen to the pod today but not tomorrow and checking a website that isn't social media is hit or miss on a weekend.

That said, I may be in the minority on that.

Sorry, man -- we can't do the podcast before media day, and media day is two days before the game.

Meanwhile, you should be able to find the podcast on social media.

I was wondering if there was some specific reason (media availability, embargo, etc) for not releasing it during the week.

If NCC wins I'll go back and listen 

[USee]

I've been looking at both teams for this game. Here are my thoughts on each team and the game:

Mt Union:

Personnel Strengths:
Veteran OL: all five are 2 or three yr starters with 2 AA's up front. Ben Lilly is a 4 yr starter at OT and Giovanni Kennedy has emerged as a 1st team AA at guard.
RB: Echeverry and Williams are different and both very talented. Echeverry reminds me of Ethan Greenfield from NCC. He runs downhill and knows how to stay on his feet. Shaun Thomas also adds another dimension here
DL: Rossy Moore is the leading tackler (106 total) and a disruptive force and plays with a high motor for UMU and Kaleb Brown is also very talented, leading the team in sacks. Both are athletic and make plays in space.
Special Teams: Kicker is 10-14 on FG including 4-5 from 40+.Darnell Williams is an explosive returner.

Personnel weaknesses:
The defense is athletic but doesn't do as well getting off blocks. LB's and secondary are average tacklers at best. Lots of missed tackles in the JHU game. WR: After Sanders this group doesn't scare you.

Overall:

Offensively:
National Rankings: Total off #15, Rush off #9, Pass off #76, Scoring Off #14, 3rd down off #46
They look a lot like North Central. 60% run and 40% pass. If Beaudrie plays their offense becomes a lot more like NCC as he is their 3rd leading rusher. Their run game is what drives this team. Echeverry is a stud.  They are well coached and have a great scheme. They have moved the ball on everybody. If the run game is going, big plays typically happen in the pass game

Defense:
National Rankings: Total def #68, Rush Def #46, Pass Def #121, Scoring Def #30, 3rd down def #143, Turnover margin #69, Tackles for loss #38
This is not a dominant defense by any means but they have dynamic players in Rossy Moore, Kaleb Brown and Von Factor up front along with Johnson at LB (2nd in tackles), Yanssens (3rd in tackles) and Roland at safety. They do a great job moving Moore around to use his athleticism and moving the front with simple twists and blitzes to free up these guys to make plays. They like to bring in extra bigs on short yardage and GL and they blitz a fair amount, especially on 3rd down. Injuries to the secondary has made this a more pedestrian group in terms of man coverage. They need the front to get home or there are guys open.

North Central:

Personnel strengths:
OLine: Two 4 yr starters and 1st team AA's in Sam Pryor and Jeske Maples. Dominant players. This group plays with an edge
QB: 2 time Gagliardi, 4 straight Staggs, about to set the record for efficiency. If the OL is the F150, Lehnen is the engine that powers it.
RB: Sacco, Allen and Coleman are different but all run downhill behind this OL and are hard to tackle
DL: Sullivan is the second leading tackler on the team at DT, which is rare. He is also DPOY in the CCIW and the Region. Kid makes plays. The other three are all good, but this guy has power and sheds blocks to make tackles. Egbo, last year's CCIW DPOY is 2nd team this year at DE
LB: Adamchik is their leading tackler and a playmaker. He is always around the football. Nuccio's return from injury has bolstered this group and freshman Janiak has made a statement as the next great LB in the league. Oh yea, there's also Orr, who is versatile at safety or LB
DB: Garrigan's return from injury has made this group a strength. Very good tacklers and almost always in the right places.
Kicking game: Ryan Sineac is 101 for 101 on Extra points

Personnel weaknesses:
2 of their OL have are playing their first post season/Stagg. The corners aren't as strong of cover guys as they have had in the past. Their WR group has done a great job this year, just not as dynamic as in the past. TE's aren't very involved in the pass game. While the FG kicker is 5/5 in the post season, they don't kick them very often, preferring to be aggressive on 4th down more often than not. Do they have a punter?

Overall:

Offense:
National Rankings: Total Off #2, Rush Off #3, Pass off #71, Scoring off #2, 3rd down off #9
This team runs the ball at you and won't relent. 60% run, 40% pass. They mix it up with their RB's and Lehnen really well. LL is the fastest guy on the field and really difficult to catch in space. You don't see him take many hits. The OL/TE's are involved in double teams at the point of attack most plays and the WR's are very good run blockers, making this a tough team to stop in the run game. Passing game is prolific off play action and not very good with straight drop back in long yardage situations, which they don't face very often.

Defense:
National Rankings: Total Def #18, Scoring Def #2, Rush Def #27, Pass Def #40, Turnover margin #15, 3rd down def #1
The reason this team has been so dominant in the post season this year is the health of the defense. last year was a battle of attrition and this year they have all their studs, including players as backups with multiple years as starters. These guys tackle extremely well and the front 7 are physical and do a great job getting off blocks. They love a boundary corner blitz (3 corners have 1 sack and multiple TFL) and pressure enough to keep you guessing. The front 4 are not great pass rushers (#95 in sacks) so they have to bring pressure at times to get home.

[USee]

As far as the game and my outlook:

I don't view the results so far as any kind of predictor for this game. North Central beating Susquehanna badly and Mt Union having a few close calls can be viewed a number of ways. Personally, Mt Union has played a much tougher schedule than North Central so far. The always tough OAC with JCU 2x, Carnegie Mellon and Hope both have top 20 defenses and JHU is a top 10 caliber team. North Central has dominated some good competition but they haven't been in any close games.

Talent wise I think these teams are overall pretty close. Lehnen is an X factor for NCC that Mt Union doesn't have and must figure out how to minimize in order to have a chance. I absolutely think Mt Union has the talent to win this game. They have a similar recipe for success in that they run the ball behind a veteran OL, have dynamic skill players and a lot of athleticism on defense. As most of us know, the best teams in the post season win the line of scrimmage. This game really turns on the performance up front by both teams.

Some interesting stats I found in the NCC game notes: over the last 44 games NCC is 43-1. In those 44 games they have scored more than 40+ points and are undefeated when they do. Only 3 times in 44 games have they had games decided by 7 pts or fewer and they are 2-1. Three more important stats: Only 5x in 44 games have opponents had a 100 yd rusher and their record is 4-1 when that happens. And only 4x in 44 games have they played a team that didn't turn it over and they are 3-1. Finally, they have been in a tie game after 3 quarters only twice and are 1-1 in those games.

Mt Union can win if:
-Run the ball effectively. Only 5 teams have had 100 yd rushers in 3 yrs. This is who Mt Union is, they have to run the ball to win.
-Zero turnovers. NCC has excelled at getting takeaways and they don't give it away much either (#15 in turnover margin)
-Play Beaudrie, a lot. I really think he has got to play a lot. His added dimension as a runner makes this good Mt Union offense very hard to defend.
-Move the front on defense. Rossy Moore is elite when he can operate in space. He, and his cohorts, are not effective when they have to fight off double teams. NCC is going to line up in 2 TE's and try to double team this defense front and knock them into the LB's. If they do, its game over. Mt Union has to have run stunts and blitzes to create penetration and get some tackles for loss. They are one of the top teams in the country in TFL. If they can force NCC into 2nd/3rd and long and then spy Lehnen, they can get off the field on 3rd down.
-Take advantage of opportunities. Mt Union has an excellent FG kicker. North Central also is one of the most penalized teams in the country. This can put NCC behind the chains and maybe we'll find out who their punter is.
-Tackle well. The JHU game would have been a blowout if Mt Union did a better job tackling at all three levels.
-Stay close through 3 quarters. Mt Union is the much more experienced team in tight games and they can use that experience if they can stay close until late

North Central can win if:
-They run for 200+ yds and Lehnen throws for 200 on less than 20 attempts. This is their recipe. Control the LOS and hit big plays.
-Win the turnover battle. It goes without saying, but NCC is really good at getting takeaways and turning them into points.
-Get off the field on 3rd down. They are #1 in the nation in this stat and that's in part because they get teams into 3rd and long. Giving extra possessions to Lehnen and Co. is a good strategy.
-As noted above, NCC hasn't had very many 100 yd rushers. If they can limit the Raider run game, they will win.
-Keep their composure. A couple of their OL like to play "through" the whistle and that has gotten them into trouble. They can't afford costly penalties.

I think this game will be closer than most predict but then again, since I thought the Susquehanna game could be close, who knows. One thing I feel pretty confident in, if this game is close in the second half, it will go the distance.

[Jbothe]

I don't think the Stagg Bowl will be particularly close. Two score edge for North Central, maybe more.

North Central is where they want to be. As healthy as they could be now.

Limited the reps for Lehnen and Sacco all year long and they still have gas in the tank.

Last year it was a tired NC team in the Stagg.