FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

nccfan1 · October 30, 2005, 12:34:31 AM

Usee, remember that the playoff pool has been expanded, and Wheaton is a respected program. Yes they lost to IWU but had beaten Carthage and Augie (if my scenario plays out). I say that given the current weight that the CCIW seems to have, that an 8-2 Wheaton gets consideration over some 9-1 teams. I do not say this is a given, I only say that a possibility for a Wheaton still exists.

usee · October 30, 2005, 12:51:34 AM

nccfan-it doesn't matter what name your school is, (wheaton, mt union, linfield, USC) NO WAY a 8-2 team goes to the playoffs over a 9-1 team as a pool C. it just won't happen. read the selection criteria.

so, as i said, wheaton is done. not mathmatically, but realistically. too many 1 loss candidates.

Mr. Ypsi · October 30, 2005, 12:53:35 AM

nccf,

The d3 selections are ALMOST entirely by 'rules' - there is very little consideration (officially, none) given to conference strength or 'reputation' of program. And there will be few (if any) 8-2 schools in the play-offs who were not AQs. Wheaton is not officially dead, but they are clining to life-support.

If Augie is 8-2, they MIGHT squeeze in, since their losses were (would be) solely to tournament teams (Wheaton would have 'bad' losses). But the only way the CCIW is virtually guaranteed 2 teams is if Augie beats NCC.

In that case, Augie is the pool A regardless of the Wheaton game (due to head-to-head); assuming NCC beats NP they would be 9-1 and a veritable lock for a pool C.

nccfan1 · October 30, 2005, 01:20:01 AM

You know, this is interesting. You say an 8-2 Augie might get in, but an 8-2 Wheaton, no way. What if Augie beats NCC but loses to Wheaton? Both 8-2, but Wheaton has head to head, then what happens. Conference should no longer come into play since NCC wins conference at 9-1. Why sould Augie be considered over Wheaton?

NCC_alum62 · October 30, 2005, 01:23:04 AM

I am probably going to take some serious flak for this but here goes...

After NCC absolutly dominated Millikin today I have to think they have a great chance at beating Auggie...it would be a huge road win, but they can do it if they play as good as they played today. Coach Weinke (D coord.) is obsessed with stopping Auggie and they really dominated Millikin' ground game today (backups were playing almost entire 4th quarter and they still shut MU out and scored another 10 pts)

I know Millikin is not Augie, but I think NCC is going to prepare for Augie like no other. They know homefield advantage is on the line and getting the schools to travel to you is a big advantage. Coach Thorne and his staff will prepare the players and even though they would prbably get in with one loss everyone knows they would rather go in 10-0 and have the number one seed than 9-1 and have to go to Alliance (assuming they would eventually play MU).

With the way Elmhurst and Auggie burnd the entire farm in Rock Island, I gotta think NCC's spread attack has a great chance to score multiple times and the D has been looking pretty good especially today...Good wins for the home teams...heres hoping we get at least one road team victory next week... GO CARDS!

ilcoach · October 30, 2005, 01:32:00 AM

Augie6 or dansand:

Either of you at the Augie game today? My usual informant was not there. Wondering where the D was? Hopefully I will make it to the NCC game next weekend.

usee · October 30, 2005, 01:33:20 AM

ncc1-if augie beats ncc they secure the automatic bid regardless of the result v wheaton (by virtue of a guaranteed conf title). the 2 loss teams we have discussed are pool C (at large) possibles. there will be some 2 or even 3 loss teams in the field, but those all come via automatic bids. if you want to learn more you can go to the front page and look in the left column under "frequently asked questions", click on that followed by the playoffs link. also, on the main post patterns page there is a "general football" category where several discussion boards are currently going over playoff projections, etc.

usee · October 30, 2005, 01:44:59 AM

carthage/wheaton game had many surprises.

those of us who picked the under were wrong by the middle of the 2nd qtr
after the 94 yds carthage got on the first drive, they got 170 the rest of the game
wheaton ran the ball 60x and passd 6
wheaton avg 5.7 ypc against a team giving up less than 2 ypc all season
wheaton played frank andrews at qb most of the game (over chupp)
they pulled chupp after he threw a 70 yd td to brother joe
wheatons starting rb was out...one of their starting corners played tailback and avg 4.7 ypc

rucks said in his postgame comments their plan was to stop the wheaton running game and make them pass it. good plan, poor execution. very surprising.

NCC_alum62 · October 30, 2005, 01:46:40 AM

If Augie beats NCC they should beat Wheaton, note that I say SHOULD not will...I know Wheaton has had thier number, but they have had ours (NCC's ) for years too and we finally beat them this year...Augie can do the same...Thats exactly why I think NCC needs to beat Augie and win out because I don't think its safe to assume anything they way this season has gone in the cciw and I want to see my cards in the playoffs and snage thier first conference title.

Mr. Ypsi · October 30, 2005, 01:52:10 AM

nccf,

Your scenario is incorrect - 'winning the conference' has nothing to do with OVERALL records. If Augie beats NCC, but loses to Wheaton, Augie is the conference champion since they and NCC tied at 6-1, but they beat NCC.

In that scenario, Augie gets the AQ. Assuming NCC beats NP they finish 9-1 and are a virtual lock for a C, and Wheaton is left out in the cold. It may or may not be fair, but that is life in d3.

usee · October 30, 2005, 01:54:43 AM

Quote from: NCC_alum62 on October 30, 2005, 01:46:40 AM
If Augie beats NCC they should beat Wheaton, note that I say SHOULD not will...

this logic is by definition flawed. if my aunt were a male, she'd be my uncle.

Mr. Ypsi · October 30, 2005, 01:09:46 AM

usee,

I've seen your aunt - are you SURE she's not your uncle?

Alternative version (seeking to avoid lawsuits)!!

I've seen your uncle - are you SURE he's not your aunt?

Oh all right, I confess I have no idea who usee's aunt, uncle, or any other relative (including usee, him/herself) may be! But it was fun (AND I'm gaining on him in pickems!)

dansand · October 30, 2005, 07:35:04 AM

ilcoach,

I didn't make it to yesterday's game and, beieve me, I'm wondering the same thing. The defense had been playing so well, seeing that score on Augie's website yesterday was a bit of a shock. On a brighter side, the offense never punted and averaged 8 yards a carry against one of the better run defenses in the league, despite having a banged up backfield. Hopefully they'll all be healthy for next week's game.
Also, I think some people are confused as to the conference championship scenario. It's simple. Winner of NCC-Augie is champ and automatic qualifier. As far as playoff spots, NCC is in unless they lose both of their final two games (not too likely). Wheaton's only chance is for Augie to lose its final two (and as a lot of people pointed out, they'd still be pretty iffy). Augie would probably have a slim chance if they lose to NCC and beat Wheaton. I liked it better in the '80s when Augie was winning every game and I didn't have to try and figure all this stuff out.

augiedogie · October 30, 2005, 08:25:58 AM

nccfan:
"If Augie beats NCC they should beat Wheaton" is flawed because Augie plays NCC at home while has to travel to Wheaton. Also if Augie wins, they don't care about the last game of the season as much, and probably will rest the starters or have them see limited actions because they already have a playoffspot wrapped up. Just because one team beats another doesn't mean that it will beat a different team. Different teams match up better against one another. Don't forget, its record in CONFERENCE before OVERALL RECORD to determine conference champion. A team could go 7-3 but (7-0) in conference and win conference before a team that goes 9-1 (6-1) in conference. So the winner of NCC and Augie will have at the most 1 conference loss with head to head matchups being the factor of who gets the AQ (which will be the winner of the NCC vs Augie game).

usee · October 30, 2005, 08:41:01 AM

augiedogie-this isn't major league baseball. no way augie rests anybody v wheaton if they were to beat ncc. while they will have the AQ locked up, they will be battling for a higher seed and a home game in the playoffs. if they beat ncc and lose to wheaton they likely will be on the road for the playoffs. plus its vs wheaton. there is plenty of incentive to win the wheaton game