FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[matblake]

Any word if Chaz Black will be making a return to action this week?

[TitanBacker]

By the way, only 11 pages until we catch up to the OAC board.  Haha

Another run of movie quotes and we'll be there.

Pick the movie and i'm in

Any news on injuries for NCC?  I haven't heard much form the IWU contingent.  Mum seems to be the word on a team that hasn't lived up to expectations.

[Mugsy]

Wheaton V Carthage:

This is the #1 offense (statistically) vs the #1 Defense. If you break those numbers down a few things stick out as keys to the game:

-carthage is #1 v the pass but #6 v run.
-wheaton has given up the fewest points all year on defense but they are statistically ranked #6
-carthage is #2 in takeaway/giveaway ratio at +8, Wheaton is -2 on the year.

To me the key to the game is wheaton's ability to run the ball v carthage and carthages ability to create turnovers. when this game is over these two factors will tell the story in my view. If wheaton takes care of the ball and runs effectively they will win easily. If carthage creates turnovers and stops the Wheaton run game, it will be a long day for the Thunder.

I could be wrong, but Carthage being #6 against the run is solely do to Augie posting 311 rushing yards on them. Wipe that stat out and they are ranked much better against the run than the numbers tell. I do agree turnovers will be the name of the game and who capitalizes on them will determine the winner.

True, but same could be said of anyone else who has played Augie.  The opposite could be said if you have played NPU, since they can only muster 50 yards rushing a game.

Point is you can't take Augie's 311 yards out in terms of rankings.

[CardinalAlum]

True, but same could be said of anyone else who has played Augie.  

                                                 AUGIE   vs   NCC

RUSHES-YARDS (NET)............   32-121   42-198


Not quite everyone!   

[Mugsy]

True, but same could be said of anyone else who has played Augie.  

                                                 AUGIE   vs   NCC

RUSHES-YARDS (NET)............   32-121   42-198


Not quite everyone!   

Yes, I know... you take me too literally.  My point was... you can't take the Augie rushing stats out.

[Redmen96]

Ouch...  That was just mean.

At least I never passed out in the lobby after playing "Leaving Carthage (Las Vegas)"

[Comet 14]

Jaybird,

In terms of being honest, a case can be made that there is more parity within the conference.  However, to say that there are 6 teams that have a  legitimate shot to win the CCIW is stretching it, IMO.  I'm assuming the 6 teams you are referring to are Augie, Wheaton, NCC, Elmhurst, Carthage and Millikin.  If you look at the CCIW records of these 6 teams since 2003, you can make a case for the first three, but it becomes much tougher for the second three.   CCIW records 2003 through 2006 are:

Augie                    22-4
Wheaton              21-5
NCC                      18-8
Carthage              14-12
Millikin                   11-15
Elmhurst                 9-17
IWU                        9-17
NPU                        0-26

Carthage had a great year in 2004, which helped out their overall record, but have fallen somewhat since then.  I don't see how you can make any case for Elmhurst, Millikin, IWU or North Park.  Yes, there are teams that have improved (NCC, Carthage, Elmhurst) while IWU and Millikin have gone backwards.  However, I don't think there is anything that supports the notion that there are six teams with legitimate shots to win the CCIW.  Maybe it will happen in the future, but it's not there yet. 

Great post, Carthage, Elmhurst, and Millikin don't look as good when you take out the non conference schedule, but from what I read here those middle 3 teams are much improved so I would say that bodes well for the conferences overall strength.

[Tailgater]

Wheaton V Carthage:

This is the #1 offense (statistically) vs the #1 Defense. If you break those numbers down a few things stick out as keys to the game:

-carthage is #1 v the pass but #6 v run.
-wheaton has given up the fewest points all year on defense but they are statistically ranked #6
-carthage is #2 in takeaway/giveaway ratio at +8, Wheaton is -2 on the year.

To me the key to the game is wheaton's ability to run the ball v carthage and carthages ability to create turnovers. when this game is over these two factors will tell the story in my view. If wheaton takes care of the ball and runs effectively they will win easily. If carthage creates turnovers and stops the Wheaton run game, it will be a long day for the Thunder.

I could be wrong, but Carthage being #6 against the run is solely do to Augie posting 311 rushing yards on them. Wipe that stat out and they are ranked much better against the run than the numbers tell. I do agree turnovers will be the name of the game and who capitalizes on them will determine the winner.

True, but same could be said of anyone else who has played Augie.  The opposite could be said if you have played NPU, since they can only muster 50 yards rushing a game.

Point is you can't take Augie's 311 yards out in terms of rankings.

OK point taken. It is what it is.

[79jaybird]

I don't see how you can think Carthage has "slipped up" and/or is "down"    They are 1 loss to Elmhurst away from being right in the hunt?  Going into the 2006 the only 2 teams that I thought were virtually "out" as not having a shot at the CCIW Title was IWU and North Park.  All the others had a good nucleus of talent.

[TitanBacker]

I don't see how you can think Carthage has "slipped up" and/or is "down"    They are 1 loss to Elmhurst away from being right in the hunt?  Going into the 2006 the only 2 teams that I thought were virtually "out" as not having a shot at the CCIW Title was IWU and North Park.  All the others had a good nucleus of talent.

Why did you choose IWU to be virtually "out"?  The only person of immense value that was lost was the QB.  It seems they've filled that void with Panno, it just took awhile.

[redman04]

Ouch...  That was just mean.

At least I never passed out in the lobby after playing "Leaving Carthage (Las Vegas)"

For some strange reason I don't remember passing out 

At least I was "nursed" back to health that night    8)

[redman04]

Mugsy,

Do the thunders play Studebaker on a strong or weak side, right or left, or do they like to match him up against a specific tackle?

[Mugsy]

The early and primary reason for the perspective that the CCIW is down a bit was the 15-9 non-conference record this year.  Actually that isn't too bad, but it is down from 21-3 last year.

Mugsy and others-

Do you think this record is because of the fact that teams in the CCIW are no longer playing all cupcake teams like years ago?  I'd be interested to see how the non-conference wins and losses stack up to the wins and losses of the teams that CCIW teams played.  In effect, I'd like to know if we're playing cupcakes or legitimate contenders and where the wins and losses come.

Below is a table comparing the cumulative records of the non-conference opponents from 2005 to 2006.

CCIW Team	Non-Conf. Record (2005)	Non-Conf. Record (2006)
Wheaton	12-18	14-11
North Central	10-20	18-9
Augustana	13-18	12-12
Carthage	17-14	10-15
Elmhurst	8-21	11-13
Illinois Wesleyan	16-13	19-5
Millikin	19-12	16-9
North Park	6-14	9-17
Totals:	101-130 (.437%)	109-91 (.545%)

At a quick glance, here is what I see:
1. Wheaton picked up 2 new opponents that overall are better.  Upgrading to Albion from Gustavus Adolphus and similar strength from Greenville to WashU.
2. North Central dropped a 1-9 Augsburg and replaced with the 9-0 Concordia (Wisc.).  Thats quite a swing in overall record between 2005 & 2006.
3. Augustana picked up 2 new opponents.  They dropped Central who went 9-2 in 2005 and replaced them with MacMurray who is 1-7 at this point.   UW-Plattville was 1-9 in 2005, but are 5-3 so far in 2006.  Augie replaced Catholic with Baldwin-Wallace, who in addition to beating them are currently at 6-2.  Overall a increase in strength of schedule for Augie, despite adding the woeful MacMurray team.
4. Carthage has virtually the same strength of opponent between 2005 and 2006.  They swapped  Benedictine for Whittier.  That said, Lakeland and Carroll appeared to be stronger last year.
5. Elmhurst replaced a horrible Concordia(Ill) at 0-10 with Olivet.  A significant increase in difficultly by virtue of Olivet being a decent team and how horrible Concordia was.  (Note record in 2005 at 8-21 and this year it is 11-13 to date)
6. Illinois Wesleyan had arguably the toughest schedule in 2006.  All 3 of the non-conference opponents in 2006 are new and currently have a 19-5 record - Coe, Olivet and Mt. St. Joseph.  Much tougher schedule than in 2005.
7. Millikin had 3 new opponents as well, 2 of 3 were very tough opponents in ONU and Wabash.  That said their 2005 opponents weren't pushovers - Wartburg, Franklin and Albion.
8. North Park replaced 2 of their patsy opponents with some better opponents, but not significantly so (Kent. Wesleyan and Chicago out, Benedictine and Rose-Hulman in)

IMO, the 2006 schedule represents a tougher schedule overall.  This is really tough to track year to year as opponents change and even common opponents can have hugh swing seasons (ie. UW-Plattville 1-9 in 2005, 5-3 in 2006).

Sorry I don't have time to disect this more, but I'm at work and things need to get done.  Feel free to add your thoughts.

[Mugsy]

Mugsy,

Do the thunders play Studebaker on a strong or weak side, right or left, or do they like to match him up against a specific tackle?

I have not seen the last 3 games as 2 were on the road and last week I had family celebrations.  From the games I've seen, they lined Studebaker up on the defensive right side.  That said depending on how teams setup their blocking schemes, I wouldn't be surprised if Coach Sandburg & Coach Swider move him around to throw teams off a bit.

[CardinalAlum]

The early and primary reason for the perspective that the CCIW is down a bit was the 15-9 non-conference record this year.  Actually that isn't too bad, but it is down from 21-3 last year.

Mugsy and others-

Do you think this record is because of the fact that teams in the CCIW are no longer playing all cupcake teams like years ago?  I'd be interested to see how the non-conference wins and losses stack up to the wins and losses of the teams that CCIW teams played.  In effect, I'd like to know if we're playing cupcakes or legitimate contenders and where the wins and losses come.

Below is a table comparing the cumulative records of the non-conference opponents from 2005 to 2006.

CCIW Team	Non-Conf. Record (2005)	Non-Conf. Record (2006)
Wheaton	12-18	14-11
North Central	10-20	18-9
Augustana	13-18	12-12
Carthage	17-14	10-15
Elmhurst	8-21	11-13
Illinois Wesleyan	16-13	19-5
Millikin	19-12	16-9
North Park	6-14	9-17
Totals:	101-130 (.437%)	109-91 (.545%)

At a quick glance, here is what I see:
1. Wheaton picked up 2 new opponents that overall are better, but not significantly.
2. North Central dropped a 1-9 Augsburg and replaced with the 9-0 Concordia (Wisc.).  Thats quite a swing in overall record between 2005 & 2006.
3. Augustana picked up 2 new opponents.  They dropped Central who went 9-2 in 2005 and replaced them with MacMurray who is 1-7 at this point.   UW-Plattville was 1-9 in 2005, but are 5-3 so far in 2006.  Augie replaced Catholic with Baldwin-Wallace, who in addition to beating them are currently at 6-2.  Overall a increase in strength of schedule for Augie, despite adding the woeful MacMurray team.
4. Carthage has virtually the same strength of opponent between 2005 and 2006.  They swapped  Benedictine for Whittier.  That said, Lakeland and Carroll appeared to be stronger last year.
5. Elmhurst replaced a horrible Concordia(Ill) at 0-10 with Olivet.  A significant increase in difficultly by virtue of Olivet being a decent team and how horrible Concordia was.  (Note record in 2005 at 8-21 and this year it is 11-13 to date)
6. Illinois Wesleyan had arguably the toughest schedule in 2006.  All 3 of the non-conference opponents in 2006 are new and currently have a 19-5 record - Coe, Olivet and Mt. St. Joseph.  Much tougher schedule than in 2005.
7. Millikin had 3 new opponents as well, 2 of 3 were very tough opponents in ONU and Wabash.  That said their 2005 opponents weren't pushovers - Wartburg, Franklin and Albion.
8. North Park replaced 2 of their patsy opponents with some better opponents, but not significantly so (Kent. Wesleyan and Chicago out, Benedictine and Rose-Hulman in)

IMO, the 2006 schedule represents a tougher schedule overall.  This is really tough to track year to year as opponents change and even common opponents can have hugh swing seasons (ie. UW-Plattville 1-9 in 2005, 5-3 in 2006).

Sorry I don't have time to disect this more, but I'm at work and things need to get done.  Feel free to add your thoughts.

Nice job on this Mugs!