FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Comet 14]

According to the pick-ums most people think the Elmhurst v.s Millikin game will be the closest game this week. I will be at the game but I wish I could see the Wheaton @ Carthage game also. That should be a good one. What is Millikins Defense like? Elmhurst has struggled with O this season to say the least. I hope they get it going this week.

[FormerCard]

The early and primary reason for the perspective that the CCIW is down a bit was the 15-9 non-conference record this year.  Actually that isn't too bad, but it is down from 21-3 last year.

Mugsy and others-

Do you think this record is because of the fact that teams in the CCIW are no longer playing all cupcake teams like years ago?  I'd be interested to see how the non-conference wins and losses stack up to the wins and losses of the teams that CCIW teams played.  In effect, I'd like to know if we're playing cupcakes or legitimate contenders and where the wins and losses come.

Below is a table comparing the cumulative records of the non-conference opponents from 2005 to 2006.

CCIW Team	Non-Conf. Record (2005)	Non-Conf. Record (2006)
Wheaton	12-18	14-11
North Central	10-20	18-9
Augustana	13-18	12-12
Carthage	17-14	10-15
Elmhurst	8-21	11-13
Illinois Wesleyan	16-13	19-5
Millikin	19-12	16-9
North Park	6-14	9-17
Totals:	101-130 (.437%)	109-91 (.545%)

At a quick glance, here is what I see:
1. Wheaton picked up 2 new opponents that overall are better.  Upgrading to Albion from Gustavus Adolphus and similar strength from Greenville to WashU.
2. North Central dropped a 1-9 Augsburg and replaced with the 9-0 Concordia (Wisc.).  Thats quite a swing in overall record between 2005 & 2006.
3. Augustana picked up 2 new opponents.  They dropped Central who went 9-2 in 2005 and replaced them with MacMurray who is 1-7 at this point.   UW-Plattville was 1-9 in 2005, but are 5-3 so far in 2006.  Augie replaced Catholic with Baldwin-Wallace, who in addition to beating them are currently at 6-2.  Overall a increase in strength of schedule for Augie, despite adding the woeful MacMurray team.
4. Carthage has virtually the same strength of opponent between 2005 and 2006.  They swapped  Benedictine for Whittier.  That said, Lakeland and Carroll appeared to be stronger last year.
5. Elmhurst replaced a horrible Concordia(Ill) at 0-10 with Olivet.  A significant increase in difficultly by virtue of Olivet being a decent team and how horrible Concordia was.  (Note record in 2005 at 8-21 and this year it is 11-13 to date)
6. Illinois Wesleyan had arguably the toughest schedule in 2006.  All 3 of the non-conference opponents in 2006 are new and currently have a 19-5 record - Coe, Olivet and Mt. St. Joseph.  Much tougher schedule than in 2005.
7. Millikin had 3 new opponents as well, 2 of 3 were very tough opponents in ONU and Wabash.  That said their 2005 opponents weren't pushovers - Wartburg, Franklin and Albion.
8. North Park replaced 2 of their patsy opponents with some better opponents, but not significantly so (Kent. Wesleyan and Chicago out, Benedictine and Rose-Hulman in)

IMO, the 2006 schedule represents a tougher schedule overall.  This is really tough to track year to year as opponents change and even common opponents can have hugh swing seasons (ie. UW-Plattville 1-9 in 2005, 5-3 in 2006).

Sorry I don't have time to disect this more, but I'm at work and things need to get done.  Feel free to add your thoughts.

Mugsy,

You MUST own your own business as the time and effort you put into D3 posts could NOT be done with someone looking over your shoulder...... or today is a vacation day.  Good work by the way

[CardinalAlum]

You MUST own your own business as the time and effort you put into D3 posts could NOT be done with someone looking over your shoulder...... or today is a vacation day.

He's a wealth of knowledge!   

[Mugsy]

You MUST own your own business as the time and effort you put into D3 posts could NOT be done with someone looking over your shoulder...... or today is a vacation day.

He's a wealth of knowledge!   

Most of it meaningless drivel. 

And it's one thing to have knowledge, but quite another to have the wisdom understand and apply it.

[CardinalAlum]

And it's one thing to have knowledge, but quite another to have the wisdom understand and apply it.

Feel like I'm watching an old rerun of "Kung-Fu"!

[ncc58]

Sidenote to your sidenote is that the NCC men's basketball team is the preseason #1 in the conference!

How about that NCC men's soccer team?  0-20-0!

It's not as bad as it seems.  A field goal or touchdown here or there and they win most of their games!      OMG, I'm starting to sound like Jaybird! 

Now that's funny ...

[usee]

Wheaton V Carthage:

This is the #1 offense (statistically) vs the #1 Defense. If you break those numbers down a few things stick out as keys to the game:

-carthage is #1 v the pass but #6 v run.
-wheaton has given up the fewest points all year on defense but they are statistically ranked #6
-carthage is #2 in takeaway/giveaway ratio at +8, Wheaton is -2 on the year.

To me the key to the game is wheaton's ability to run the ball v carthage and carthages ability to create turnovers. when this game is over these two factors will tell the story in my view. If wheaton takes care of the ball and runs effectively they will win easily. If carthage creates turnovers and stops the Wheaton run game, it will be a long day for the Thunder.

I could be wrong, but Carthage being #6 against the run is solely do to Augie posting 311 rushing yards on them. Wipe that stat out and they are ranked much better against the run than the numbers tell. I do agree turnovers will be the name of the game and who capitalizes on them will determine the winner.

True, but same could be said of anyone else who has played Augie.  The opposite could be said if you have played NPU, since they can only muster 50 yards rushing a game.

Point is you can't take Augie's 311 yards out in terms of rankings.

OK point taken. It is what it is.

sorry, late to the game here but it should be pointed out that wheaton gave up 276 yds rushing to Augie and still is #2 at 88 ypg. So I do not believe Carthage is anything but 6th vs the run. it all evens out.

[usee]

Mugsy,

Do the thunders play Studebaker on a strong or weak side, right or left, or do they like to match him up against a specific tackle?

I have not seen the last 3 games as 2 were on the road and last week I had family celebrations.  From the games I've seen, they lined Studebaker up on the defensive right side.  That said depending on how teams setup their blocking schemes, I wouldn't be surprised if Coach Sandburg & Coach Swider move him around to throw teams off a bit.

Mugsy's got it. Studebaker plays both sides. Against Augie they put him on the defensive right the whole game, which i never understood, but every other game I have seen he switches sides, seemingly at his discretion.

[ncc58]

You MUST own your own business as the time and effort you put into D3 posts could NOT be done with someone looking over your shoulder...... or today is a vacation day.

He's a wealth of knowledge!   

That's the value of that North Central College education!

[washdupcard]

I feel sorry for all your employers.

[FormerCard]

at 5'11", Kniss doesnt have height on his side, but does have tremendous leadership ability, a good arm and a great work ethic.  Anybodys thoughts on him playing at the next level.  Arena maybe?

[washdupcard]

I don't think his arm is that good.  He is a great D-3 Qb.  But I wouldn't say he has a cannon.

[FormerCard]

I don't think his arm is that good.  He is a great D-3 Qb.  But I wouldn't say he has a cannon.

I didnt say great, i said good.    I do think he has a good arm and great accuracy.

[usee]

Great job on the non conf analysis and commentary. the only thing I would add is that the perception our conference is down this year stems from a couple results.  

The #1 reason was Augie's loss to BW who was projected to be a middle/bottom OAC team this year. they have shown they are better than that and may actually be a playoff team before its done.

#2 is Augie's loss to UWP for the same reason. UWP is 5-3 and doing much better than most had thought they would.

the other big indicator was NCC's loss at home to IBC's Concordia. IBC teams usually don't beat  CCIW teams and certainly not their top teams. Concordia has proven it is at a different level than the rest of the IBC.

there are other games but these are the reasons we all thought we were down this year. At this point I still have a hunch we aren't as good top to bottom but I am not as sure as I was in the preseason. I do think that Wheaton and NCC are the strongest teams as our playoff reps. If either loses down the stretch then the "weaker"conference" arguements will reign. If they both win out I would expect both of them to have a decent chance in round 1 and or 2 and possibly both going down in Alliance. that outcome would argue equal strength to years past depending on the playoff results.

just a few thoughts

[Tailgater]

Mugsy,

Do the thunders play Studebaker on a strong or weak side, right or left, or do they like to match him up against a specific tackle?

I have not seen the last 3 games as 2 were on the road and last week I had family celebrations.  From the games I've seen, they lined Studebaker up on the defensive right side.  That said depending on how teams setup their blocking schemes, I wouldn't be surprised if Coach Sandburg & Coach Swider move him around to throw teams off a bit.

Having talked with the Carthage Left offensive tackle it is my understanding that Studebaker appears likely to be lining up over the offensive right tackle, being on the defensive left side. Last year Studebaker was on the defensive right side against Carthage and I'd have to say was handled quite well by the left tackle who was named offensive player of the game for his effort. I wouldn't be surprised to see Studebaker move from side to side depending on situatuions.