FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[burly]

There is a potential upset* worth looking at this week - Milikin (1-4)  vs. North Park (1-4).  Milikin having only scored 13 points in their last three games.  North Park, coming off a loss to North Central, but putting up some strong numbers including 34 points.

North Park is improving every week.  A W vs. Eureka, 7-point loss to Rose-Hulman and last week's performance against the Cards, I think they are moving in the right direction.  However, this also could mean North Central is getting worse, L to Wash U and giving up 34 to North Park.  We shall see.

It's only Monday, so I'm not ready to commit yet.  I picked Elmhurst last week, which wasn't too risky, but each week I'm going to try and find an upset in the CCIW.  I guess I should have taken the Titans too.

*To win unexpectedly

First of all, I believe this may have already been addressed, but Elmhurst beating Carthage at home was expected by many, and thus not an upset.  As for your North Park pick, I agree that they are definitely improving, but Millikin is not as bad as you think.  Sure they have only scored 13 points in the last 3 games, but those 3 games were all against top 20 teams.  Millikin's offense is going to be able to throw the ball all over the field against North Park and their defense has held all three of those top 20 teams under 30 points, so I'm going to have to disagree and say Millikin wins this one convincingly.  I was quite impressed with Justin Levingson, their QB this week, and they have two great receivers in Katzmark and Kormelink.  One thing to note though is Emmanuel Minter, their RB, went down with an injury in the fourth quarter, but that shouldn't affect the passing game much.  North Park may be improving, but Millikin, and the rest of the CCIW for that matter, are still significantly better.

Thunderstoned, re-read the following: "I picked Elmhurst last week, which wasn't too risky, but each week I'm going to try and find an upset in the CCIW."  Yes, we have already covered this.

"Milikin isn't as bad as you think"  - compared to North Park or Carthage?   These may be the only two CCIW W's for the Big Blue this year.  And, Carthage usually plays Milikin tough, so lets see what happens.

Granted, it would take a lot for North Park to pull off a W this week, but it's possible and worth talking about.

Speaking of rankings (which mean little to me), when was the last time Wheaton was (or has been ever) ranked #5?  And, of the Wheaton teams that have made it to the playoffs in recent years, how does the 2007 team compare?

[burly]

I know NC doesn't have a great passing game, and with the running back they do have its almost unncessary, but with that said, NP got pretty good penetration, and defended the pass very well.  I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that if Millikin wins it'll be by a score (td) or less.  I was extremely impressed by NP's Shelby Wood, he's going to be great by the time he's a senior.  He made some plays I have for sure never seen NP quarterback make, and ones I've never seen in a game at NP.  I would say, equally, don't underestimate the Vikings...

I would take NP and 10 points.  Maybe 6 by Friday.

[usee]

Speaking of rankings (which mean little to me), when was the last time Wheaton was (or has been ever) ranked #5?  And, of the Wheaton teams that have made it to the playoffs in recent years, how does the 2007 compare?

In 2004 Wheaton was ranked as high as #4 (in week 8 ) before losing at carthage. CCIW sent Wheaton and Carthage to the playoffs and both lost at Mt Union. Wheaton ended up ranked #12 and Carthage #5 at end of the year.

Also, in 2003 they were ranked in the top 5 most of the year (as high as #3 ) before losing at Mt Union in the playoffs and finishing #7

[burly]

Speaking of rankings (which mean little to me), when was the last time Wheaton was (or has been ever) ranked #5?  And, of the Wheaton teams that have made it to the playoffs in recent years, how does the 2007 compare?

In 2004 Wheaton was ranked as high as #4 (in week 8 ) before losing at carthage. CCIW sent Wheaton and Carthage to the playoffs and both lost at Mt Union. Wheaton ended up ranked #12 and Carthage #5 at end of the year.

Also, in 2003 they were ranked in the top 5 most of the year (as high as #3 ) before losing at Mt Union in the playoffs and finishing #7

Thanks Usee.  That was my understanding - 2003 undefeated until Mt. Union coming off a strong 2002 season.  But, I couldn't remember if they were ranked in the top 5 in 2004 given the Carthage loss.

[Gregory Sager]

I know NC doesn't have a great passing game, and with the running back they do have its almost unncessary, but with that said, NP got pretty good penetration, and defended the pass very well.  I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that if Millikin wins it'll be by a score (td) or less.  I was extremely impressed by NP's Shelby Wood, he's going to be great by the time he's a senior.  He made some plays I have for sure never seen NP quarterback make, and ones I've never seen in a game at NP.  I would say, equally, don't underestimate the Vikings...

NPU's pass defense against North Central was fine. The Vikings didn't put a ton of pressure upon Fanthorpe -- they only sacked him once -- but the Cardinals only picked up 116 passing yards on the day, as Fanthorpe and Kniss threw for a combined 7-17 in the air. As tjcf hinted, it was the NCC running game that killed NPU. And it wasn't only Sulo, as great a runner as he is. The other NCC ballcarriers ran for 87 yards on 21 carries, a 4.14 average. Much of their rushing success against the Vikings had to do with the same-old, same-old -- the NPU D-line got pushed backwards, just as it has without respite for most of the past four decades -- and a lot of it had to do with fourth-quarter exhaustion. As I said on Saturday, there was a lot of listless arm-tackling attempts made late in the ballgame by the Vikings. That's not due to time of possession in a strict sense, since North Park actually had the ball for more of the game than did North Central, but it has more to do with proper rest. The NPU offense made so many turnovers that the NPU defense often found itself trotting back onto the field without having had the chance to catch its breath. More importantly, the Vikings just don't have any quality depth. As I said, Scott Pethtel's got some decent ballplayers; he just doesn't have enough of them.

Shelby Wood is going to be a great QB by the time he's a senior. But he, too, showed exhaustion in the fourth quarter; that's when he made most of the handful of bad decisions he made during the game.

I don't think anyone's underestimating NPU. In fact, I think that the trend in this room is to overestimate the Vikings. ThunderStones is right -- North Park is improving, but the rest of the league (Millikin included) is still significantly better.

I would take NP and 10 points.  Maybe 6 by Friday.

Keep it at NPU and ten, BP.

[burly]

Usee, of the Wheaton teams that have made it to the playoffs in the recent years, how does the 2007 Wheaton team stack up against them?

[Mugsy]

Usee, of the Wheaton teams that have made it to the playoffs in the recent years, how does the 2007 Whaton team stack up against them?

IMO... too early to tell.  Kinda hard to rate them until they get through the conference schedule, don't you think?  If they happen to lose a few games, then the comparison is pointless.

Though I will say that if Zach Ullrich hadn't gotten hurt this Wheaton team could have been in the hunt for all time best.  Wheaton may (MAY) have one of their strongest defenses.  I'll have a better view once they have played the other contenders in the CCIW.  Right now I don't think Wheaton's offense is nearly as big a threat as in other years, when they had a strong running game matched with some game breakers at QB and receiver.  Right now they have a 2nd & 3rd string QB splitting time (capable, but backups) and the running game is down from years past.  The Oline is giving up more sacks in years past as well.

Summary:
At this point I'd say the defense is better than in years past, but the offense is not as strong. 

[burly]

Usee, of the Wheaton teams that have made it to the playoffs in the recent years, how does the 2007 Wheaton team stack up against them?

IMO... too early to tell.  Kinda hard to rate them until they get through the conference schedule, don't you think?  If they happen to lose a few games, then the comparison is pointless.

Though I will say that if Zach Ullrich hadn't gotten hurt this Wheaton team could have been in the hunt for all time best.  Wheaton may (MAY) have one of their strongest defenses.  I'll have a better view once they have played the other contenders in the CCIW.  Right now I don't think Wheaton's offense is nearly as big a threat as in other years, when they had a strong running game matched with some game breakers at QB and receiver.  Right now they have a 2nd & 3rd string QB splitting time (capable, but backups) and the running game is down from years past.  The Oline is giving up more sacks in years past as well.

Summary:
At this point I'd say the defense is better than in years past, but the offense is not as strong. 

Understood, but by the time the conference schedule is over, so is the season.  I was just curious what your (early) opinions are.  Thanks.

[burly]

I would take NP and 10 points.  Maybe 6 by Friday.

Keep it at NPU and ten, BP.
[/quote]

Good analysis – I'm just overly optimistic for NP to win a CCIW game.

I understand it is nearly impossible to quantify, but, honestly, in D3 football, where the crowd is virtually not a factor, how much do you think home field advantage comes into play?

[Gregory Sager]

I understand it is nearly impossible to quantify, but, honestly, in D3 football, where the crowd is virtually not a factor, how much do you think home field advantage comes into play?

I've never attended a football game at Millikin, so I can't answer that. I can tell you that home field advantage at NPU isn't worth a plugged nickel, though.

[79jaybird]

Tailgater- good synopsis.  The Elmhurst fades and deep balls are a credit to Carthage's interior D  that was filling up the gaps and making the running game difficult.  Both teams plugged up the running lanes nicely forcing the offense to try and look to the sidelines.  
Don't sell the Redmen and Bluejays short.  This was a great battle of 2 very strong defenses.  Great defenses force turnovers and create opportunities, which IMO- is why there were so many turnovers.  As you will see on the pick em's board when I make my selections,  I look for Carthage to rebound nicely against IWU this weekend.
Usee- the 58-0 and 62-0 were way before the current management team was in place.  I don't look at these scores, rather Elmhurst being 7-14 points down the last couple of years.  In fact, 2 years ago at Rock Island Elmhurst had the lead in the 4th quarter, before Augie was able to battle back.  This year's team is different.  They are more talented as a whole and have been very stingy in allowing very few TD's.  (Carthage had to settle for Matt Denny FG's)
It should be a great game Saturday at Rock Island.
When was the last time Elmhurst beat Augie?  Well, in 1986 the 2 teams tied at Elmhurst ending Augie's record winning streak.  In 1970 Elmhurst beat Augie, not sure who's field that was on.  I do know Elmhurst picked up a victory over AC on a neutral site.  

[matblake]

I would take NP and 10 points.  Maybe 6 by Friday.

Keep it at NPU and ten, BP.

Good analysis – I'm just overly optimistic for NP to win a CCIW game.

I understand it is nearly impossible to quantify, but, honestly, in D3 football, where the crowd is virtually not a factor, how much do you think home field advantage comes into play?

[/quote]

Between comparable teams, home field advantage is huge, especially in D3.  You don't have the same kind of crowd noise, but you have much larger behind the scenes hurdles.  2+ hour bus rides on the day of the game, unfamiliar facilities, if you do stay over night 4 guys are in a room, more limited choices as far as getting the pre-game meal, and more are all things that the traveling teams have to face.  With the limited budgets most d3's have traveling can be a difficult thing.  If there is a talent differential between the teams, some of these issues probably won't come into play.

[Mugsy]

Usee, of the Wheaton teams that have made it to the playoffs in the recent years, how does the 2007 Wheaton team stack up against them?

IMO... too early to tell.  Kinda hard to rate them until they get through the conference schedule, don't you think?  If they happen to lose a few games, then the comparison is pointless.

Though I will say that if Zach Ullrich hadn't gotten hurt this Wheaton team could have been in the hunt for all time best.  Wheaton may (MAY) have one of their strongest defenses.  I'll have a better view once they have played the other contenders in the CCIW.  Right now I don't think Wheaton's offense is nearly as big a threat as in other years, when they had a strong running game matched with some game breakers at QB and receiver.  Right now they have a 2nd & 3rd string QB splitting time (capable, but backups) and the running game is down from years past.  The Oline is giving up more sacks in years past as well.

Summary:
At this point I'd say the defense is better than in years past, but the offense is not as strong. 

Understood, but by the time the conference schedule is over, so is the season.  I was just curious what your (early) opinions are.  Thanks.

I figured you where looking for a preliminary opinion, but for me it is just too early to tell.  Until they play an upper echelon team, it is hard to me to judge just how good they are.  Other Wheaton posters I'm sure will be able to give an opinion.

I'm going to wait a few weeks before I start comtemplating where this team rates.

Oh... and incidently when the conference season is over, the season may not be over.  Playoffs?   

[New Tradition]

 I am suprised to have not seen more Cardinal posters this week yet, the week of the bell..Its only monday, but I was sure #62 and the New Tradition would be in full effect...

Sorry about the late response!   Although it will be an incredible dogfight the entire way, I believe that several Cardinal units will need to have the game of their lives in order for NCC to walk away with this one.  First and foremost, the Cardinal o-line needs to play lights out football.   This is definitely something that this unit is capable of.  4 out of the 5 members of this line accomplished this last season when the pressure was on them to perform against Augie to get the AQ for the playoffs (I realize Welnak was injured, but he played in the '05 game against the wheaties, so he has solid big game experience).  They know how to step up when the time is right, and I can guarantee that Ponx will have them ready for any stunts that Wheaton will throw their way.  That being said, the 1 factor that concerns me (naturally) is Studebaker.  Not just because he is a stud, but also, because he is facing the 1 member of the o-line who does not have any experience in a big game like Augie or Wheaton.  Of course, good line surges will be necessary to get Sulo into the second level, but I think that this unit also has to be able to provide Fanthorpe/Kniss with a little extra time to get the ball off.  Being inexperienced quarterbacks, an extra second or 2 to read the defense will be crucial and certainly benefit the Cardinal passing game.  (A healthy Perry Welch will also help).

Secondly, the Cardinal DB's will need to step up this week.  I stated at the start of the season that I was nervous about running a 3-3-5.  My concern, however, was that the Cardinals would not be able to stop the run.  They have certainly proven me wrong on this so far this season, but with 5 DB's, I am having a rough time figuring out how anyone could possibly get so many receivers open against them.  The Cardinals will need a tenacious, healthy (Hoffman 100%) corps of DB's playing their hearts out to stifle the Wheaton passing attack. 

Those are my thoughts for this week.  As I said, I'm sure it will be a dogfight, but IMO, NCC will greatly improve their chances of winning if those 2 units have stellar performances under the lights on Saturday night at Benedetti-Wherli Stadium.

[matblake]

Secondly, the Cardinal DB's will need to step up this week.  I stated at the start of the season that I was nervous about running a 3-3-5.  My concern, however, was that the Cardinals would not be able to stop the run.  They have certainly proven me wrong on this so far this season, but with 5 DB's, I am having a rough time figuring out how anyone could possibly get so many receivers open against them.  The Cardinals will need a tenacious, healthy (Hoffman 100%) corps of DB's playing their hearts out to stifle the Wheaton passing attack. 

What has the Cardinal pass rush been like this year?  I see that they have 13 sacks so far, but 9 of those were against Benedictine and Concordia.  If the pass rush wasn't effective against WashU, maybe receivers continued to get open coming back to the ball, broken off route, etc.  I'm sure they blitz linebackers/secondary guys, but having the base 3 with 3 backers might be affecting the rush.  Since I haven't seen/heard the Cardinals play this year, I'm just throwing out thoughts.