FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Comet 14]

79jaybird- I agree that the last 2 weeks Elmhurst's offense has not played as well as earlier in the year but the defense still has to take it's share of the blame. In the first quarter alone Augie had the ball for 24 plays and 13:06 of the total 29 plays and 15:00 minutes of the quarter. This was only on 2 posessions. So a couple of 3 and outs would halve helped them and maybe helped the offense try to establish a running game. For the entire game Augie only had 4 possesions of 3 plays or less. 1 missed fieldgoal, one fumble, 1 T.D. , and 1 punt.

[Comet 14]

Billy, Elmhurst tried to establish a running game but Augie's interior defense was very stingy. That was not what bothered me.
What bothered me is that we came out in the second half with an empty backfield all half!  Lining up without a running back IMO is not very good.  This allows the defense to drop their LB's and know that you are passing.  
I have always preferred to keep a running back in the backfield (even if it is a pass), just to keep the defense honest and respect the fact that it could be a run.  
The problem for EC right now is offense.  In the Augie game, our defense was doing the job, but cannot be expected to keep the game scoreless all game long, and be able to stay 100% on no rest.   90 degrees on the field and our offense was going 3 and out,  eventually leads to fatigue.

Jaybird- Elmhurst has a roster of almost 90 players. The coaching staff needs to trust some of the back-ups to spell players and keep them fresher. IMO this would give the D- fense a better chance of creating there own 3 and outs.

[79jaybird]

FormerCard- to answer your post a few pages back "What does NC have to do to beat Elmhurst....?"
I think it is the other way around- What does ELMHURST have to do to beat NC.  I think NC has won the last 5-6 games against us?  ( I am at work and don't have the stats in front of me).
I think this is going to be a low scoring game and the variables (Turnovers/Execution) are the 2 things that will decide this game.
To focus on 2 players I think it's A)Sulo and B) Kudyba.  If Sulo is allowed to run all day, the edge goes to NC.  If Kudyba is hitting his receivers and able to get the offense "clicking",  then I think the edge swings to Elmhurst.  
I think these 2 teams are pretty even on paper.  Usually the EC/NC games are pretty close battles.

[79jaybird]

Comet yes and no.  I know Tom Journell & Co. have great confidence in their players, but you are playing the co-champions and 1 of the top 3 in the conference.. I feel you have to stick to your #1 horses. 
Case and point, Augie just flat out beat us with execution.  It wasn't that they were 10 x's stronger, faster, etc.  it was more of the Vikings just making more plays work (executing) than Elmhurst did. 

[matblake]

This just in!  This is what the Augustana players recite in honor of the Wheaton Thunder prior to each football contest.  

[Comet 14]

Jaybird, In most cases I would agree with you. But Augie's whole offensive philosophy is to wear the d-fense down and after the total # of plays they ran in the first half Elmhurst needed to make an adjustment to keep it's defense fresh, either by Subs or controlling the clock or both.

[usee]

So, moving forward.  Lets hear it - thoughts on this weekend.  Augie vs. Wheaton...

Tough game to analyze for me. I think the Augie O has something to prove against a pretty good Thunder D. But I think with the injury to Studebaker, the Wheaton D also should have a chip on its shoulder to show its more than a 2 man show. The only question I have is whether Toal can stay out of the referee's kitchen enough to be on the field for the whole game.....seriously though, it goes without saying that the longer this unit is on the field, the harder it will be to limit the Augie machine (see Rock Island last Saturday).

The real key to this game is the Wheaton offense against a surprisingly stingy Augie D. Wheaton has to be effective moving the chains and creating big plays to score. I think if Wheaton can get an early lead this will help them tremendously. Both teams have done a fairly good job of taking care of the football thus far in the season so I don't expect many turnovers. Special teams are excellent for both squads so any big plays for either team can be a momentum swinger as well. wheaton simply has to score points and put the pressure on Augie to keep up. And the defense needs to stay healthy during the game and off the field as much as possible.

The good news is Wheaton is 33-1 at home going back to the 2002 season. The bad news is the 1 loss was to Augie in 2005.

[Mugsy]

And the defense needs to stay healthy during the game and off the field as much as possible.

Sure would be nice to go at least one game without losing another starter to injury.

[Mr. Ypsi]

With all the emphasis on Augie's rushing game, let's take a closer look.  In five games they have rushed for 1607 net yards, a pretty impressive 321.4 ypg.  However, 538 of those came against MacMurray and another 470 against the Blue Jays.  That leaves only 599 yards (<200 ypg) against Bald Wally, Plattesville, and IWU.  Even with Studebaker out, are you trying to convince me that Wheaton's D is significantly inferior to those three teams?

I'm well aware that statistics are far from the whole story (I taught the course for 32 years and wrote a textbook ), and I haven't seen them play, but this just does not strike me as a vintage Viking running attack.  I never take Augie lightly in any year, but I still feel Wheaton should win fairly easily.

[cardinaldad]

FormerCard- to answer your post a few pages back "What does NC have to do to beat Elmhurst....?"
I think it is the other way around- What does ELMHURST have to do to beat NC.  I think NC has won the last 5-6 games against us?  ( I am at work and don't have the stats in front of me).
I think this is going to be a low scoring game and the variables (Turnovers/Execution) are the 2 things that will decide this game.
To focus on 2 players I think it's A)Sulo and B) Kudyba.  If Sulo is allowed to run all day, the edge goes to NC.  If Kudyba is hitting his receivers and able to get the offense "clicking",  then I think the edge swings to Elmhurst.  
I think these 2 teams are pretty even on paper.  Usually the EC/NC games are pretty close battles.

Jaybird - The games sure have been pretty darn close. Probably 4 of the last 5 or 6 games have been decided on the last possesion or even the last play of the game. I am anticipating this game to be a great one too. These teams always play each other tough.

[burly]

So, moving forward.  Lets hear it - thoughts on this weekend.  Augie vs. Wheaton...

The good news is Wheaton is 33-1 at home going back to the 2002 season. The bad news is the 1 loss was to Augie in 2005.

33-1 at home since 2002 has to be one of the best in the country behind Mount Union.

[burly]

I'm well aware that statistics are far from the whole story (I taught the course for 32 years and wrote a textbook ), and I haven't seen them play, but this just does not strike me as a vintage Viking running attack.  I never take Augie lightly in any year, but I still feel Wheaton should win fairly easily.

I thought the same thing about the NCC vs. Wheaton match-up - Wheaton should win fairly easily.  With the NCC loss to Wash U. and NPU putting up 30+ points on NCC, I thought the Thunder would run away with this one.  But, the last couple of years, these games have all be fairly close with the leading team at halftime losing in the end.  Plus, throw in a bell and you have a little something extra to play for!

Easy wins are difficult to come by in the CCIW.  In addition, the competitiveness of the conference can be seen in the relatively small number undisputed conference champions.  Since 1999, there have only been three teams to win conference outright with a 7-0 record:

2002 Wheaton
2003 Wheaton
2005 Augustana

[Comet 14]

It's so quiet in here I think my post is echoing. ;

[79jaybird]

CardinalDad- yes they have been close and I look for more of the same this weekend.  Factor in a spirited Homecoming crowd (which I am not implying has any physical impact on the game) and the entire setting should be pretty exciting.  Looking at a few of the past year's tilts, Elmhurst has had their opportunities in most every game, but the Cardinals have executed when they had to.  Those 2 variables (turnovers/execution) resurface and I look for more of the same Saturday. 

[usee]

I think the NCC/Elmhurst game will have a lot of scoring. Elmhurst's run defense is suspect given last weeks performance v Augie, NCC has the best rb in the conference. NCC's pass defense is suspect and ELmhurst throws the ball a lot (albeit w a 52% completion rate).  Elmhurst's penchant for throwing will also lengthen the game. NCC leads the conference in turnover ratio. based on that I would favor NCC.

I would think the team that scores in the 30+ pt range will prevail.

my prediction is NCC 35 Elm 28