FB: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Jim Matson]

Nice work on the CCIW AQ, Cards fans!  I think Thorne has to be the man this season, no matter what anyone to the North and to the East can pull off .

[New Tradition]

One resulting issue is that any playoff opponent for NCC will get the film for the last two regular season games so all their playoff opponents will see Augie's success.

Yeah, but they don't all have Podulka!

there are 2 problems with that thinking:

1-There is a guy out there named Nate Kmic--I would rather face Podulka than him. (Think Justin Beaver)
2-Augie had 304 yds rushing and Podulka only had 94 yds himself. Someone else gave up over 200 yds rushing.

When the Cards do play Mount Union, they'll have a lot more to worry about than what films LK and co. are seeing.

[Augie6]

One resulting issue is that any playoff opponent for NCC will get the film for the last two regular season games so all their playoff opponents will see Augie's success.

Yeah, but they don't all have Podulka!

there are 2 problems with that thinking:

1-There is a guy out there named Nate Kmic--I would rather face Podulka than him. (Think Justin Beaver)
2-Augie had 304 yds rushing and Podulka only had 94 yds himself. Someone else gave up over 200 yds rushing.

If we take care of business next week, your problem # 1 is hopefully in the finals!!  Lots of other teams to worry about before that is an issue.

#2, you are right BUT Podulka was drawing so much attention that when he did pitch the ball, it was pretty wide open.  That will need to be fixed!

I think NCC has a lot more to worry about than MUC, based on their defensive performance yesterday.  No question Podulka played well yesterday.  But the bottom line is that NCC gave up 300+ yards on the ground to a fairly average Augie offense.  Podulka is very quick and very elusive, however, that can't be said for the rest of Augie's backfield.  Yet, this group was able to grind out 200+ yards on the ground, in addition to the yardage that Podulka gained.  The defense that I saw yesterday was not one that can get NCC deep into the playoffs.  I have to believe that NCC will see offenses in the playoffs that are significantly better than Augie's.  If they were able to make it to a playoff game against MUC, Kmic and Michelli (who is probably just as good of runner as Podulka, but a much better passer) would absolutely shred that defense.  However, unless the defense performs much better than it did yesterday, my guess is that they won't make it to that point in the playoffs.

[New Tradition]

One resulting issue is that any playoff opponent for NCC will get the film for the last two regular season games so all their playoff opponents will see Augie's success.

Yeah, but they don't all have Podulka!

there are 2 problems with that thinking:

1-There is a guy out there named Nate Kmic--I would rather face Podulka than him. (Think Justin Beaver)
2-Augie had 304 yds rushing and Podulka only had 94 yds himself. Someone else gave up over 200 yds rushing.

If we take care of business next week, your problem # 1 is hopefully in the finals!!  Lots of other teams to worry about before that is an issue.

#2, you are right BUT Podulka was drawing so much attention that when he did pitch the ball, it was pretty wide open.  That will need to be fixed!

I think NCC has a lot more to worry about than MUC, based on their defensive performance yesterday.  No question Podulka played well yesterday.  But the bottom line is that NCC gave up 300+ yards on the ground to a fairly average Augie offense.  Podulka is very quick and very elusive, however, that can't be said for the rest of Augie's backfield.  Yet, this group was able to grind out 200+ yards on the ground, in addition to the yardage that Podulka gained.  The defense that I saw yesterday was not one that can get NCC deep into the playoffs.  I have to believe that NCC will see offenses in the playoffs that are significantly better than Augie's.  If they were able to make it to a playoff game against MUC, Kmic and Michelli (who is probably just as good of runner as Podulka, but a much better passer) would absolutely shred that defense.  However, unless the defense performs much better than it did yesterday, my guess is that they won't make it to that point in the playoffs.

Augie6,

You are correct, there are situations that arose yesterday defensively that need to be addressed, and I'm sure they will by Coach Wienke the Cardinal coaching staff.  In a way, I'm glad that Augie was able to do some of the things that they did on offense because not only do our future opponents get the tape, but so does the NCC coaching staff, and I'm sure they will do what they can to shore up some of the weaknesses exploited by Augustana's solid offensive play on Saturday.

Keep in mind, also, that you are basing a lot of what you say off of the 1 game that you saw the Cardinals play.  28 is the most points that anyone has scored all season on the Cards, and before that game they had given up only 12 pts./game on average against some pretty prolific offenses (Carthage's ridiculous passing attack, Wheaton's Norris and Gingg, and the Ladd-Ciesel connection at IWU).

Give some credit to the Augie O for making some outstanding plays, and their offensive coaches for calling a great game against a defense that has held every other CCIW team to less offensive production than we saw on Saturday by Podulka and Co.

[Augie6]

One resulting issue is that any playoff opponent for NCC will get the film for the last two regular season games so all their playoff opponents will see Augie's success.

Yeah, but they don't all have Podulka!

there are 2 problems with that thinking:

1-There is a guy out there named Nate Kmic--I would rather face Podulka than him. (Think Justin Beaver)
2-Augie had 304 yds rushing and Podulka only had 94 yds himself. Someone else gave up over 200 yds rushing.

If we take care of business next week, your problem # 1 is hopefully in the finals!!  Lots of other teams to worry about before that is an issue.

#2, you are right BUT Podulka was drawing so much attention that when he did pitch the ball, it was pretty wide open.  That will need to be fixed!

I think NCC has a lot more to worry about than MUC, based on their defensive performance yesterday.  No question Podulka played well yesterday.  But the bottom line is that NCC gave up 300+ yards on the ground to a fairly average Augie offense.  Podulka is very quick and very elusive, however, that can't be said for the rest of Augie's backfield.  Yet, this group was able to grind out 200+ yards on the ground, in addition to the yardage that Podulka gained.  The defense that I saw yesterday was not one that can get NCC deep into the playoffs.  I have to believe that NCC will see offenses in the playoffs that are significantly better than Augie's.  If they were able to make it to a playoff game against MUC, Kmic and Michelli (who is probably just as good of runner as Podulka, but a much better passer) would absolutely shred that defense.  However, unless the defense performs much better than it did yesterday, my guess is that they won't make it to that point in the playoffs.

Augie6,

You are correct, there are situations that arose yesterday defensively that need to be addressed, and I'm sure they will by Coach Wienke the Cardinal coaching staff.  In a way, I'm glad that Augie was able to do some of the things that they did on offense because not only do our future opponents get the tape, but so does the NCC coaching staff, and I'm sure they will do what they can to shore up some of the weaknesses exploited by Augustana's solid offensive play on Saturday.

Keep in mind, also, that you are basing a lot of what you say off of the 1 game that you saw the Cardinals play.  28 is the most points that anyone has scored all season on the Cards, and before that game they had given up only 12 pts./game on average against some pretty prolific offenses (Carthage's ridiculous passing attack, Wheaton's Norris and Gingg, and the Ladd-Ciesel connection at IWU).

Give some credit to the Augie O for making some outstanding plays, and their offensive coaches for calling a great game against a defense that has held every other CCIW team to less offensive production than we saw on Saturday by Podulka and Co.

New Tradition,

I understand that this was one game and recognized that in my post (the defense I saw yesterday).  However, that still doesn't change my opinion about what I saw.  This was a game for the outright CCIW championship for NCC and the automatic bid.  I would have expected NCC's defense to be at the top of their game in that situation.  Yes, I do give Augie some credit and stated in an earlier post that I was surprised by how well the offense played.  However, if NCC's defense can't play better than they did with what was riding on that game, I truly don't see them having much success in the playoffs.  To have any chance of competing for a national championship,  NCC would have to play defense significantly better than they did yesterday.  A game like yesterday's will not get it done against the best teams in the country.

[usee]

The regional rankings come out on Wednesday and could look like this:

1. Mt. Union
2. North Central
3. Wabash
4. Trine
5. Case
6. Otterbein
7. Franklin
8. Aurora


If the North isn't shuffled (and everybody wins this weekend who is supposed to win) that puts North Central home against Franklin and then vs the Ott/Wabash winner. a few comments:

-Wabash (Depauw) and Otterbein (John Carrol) have tough games this weekend
-Aurora plays Lakeland and the winner gets to play North #1 in round 1
-If Cortland loses to Ithaca, MUC could well be an East #1 again (as Yspi says). That moves everyone up 1 slot and brings Thomas More potentially into the North bracket. that would result in NCC vs Aurora/Lakeland winner and wabash/Thomas more in round 1.

[cardinalpride]

Congratulations to North Central on a historic CCIW clinching victory. I'm sure if I ask the Cards fans it was all the more special to clinch 3 straight against Augie. 

Also congratulations to Elmhurst on clinching win #7 for the first time since 1985.  Millikin gave EC all they could handle and really should have beat EC.  Elmhurst trailed for 90% of the game.  There were two reasons why Elmhurst was able to win a game where they had 3 turnovers and 5 sacks?  against.  A) The defense stepped up in the second half controlling Wilson and putting some pressure (which was non existent in the first half) on MU's QB.   B) Kudyba won this game on offense.  He took the team on his shoulders and refused to lose this game.  He knew next week vs. NC would be much tougher than MU this week, and just gutted out a second half comeback.  I especially like him diving head long to pick up the first down on 3rd and 4 from the doorstep with 30 some seconds left.

I know Thorne will get COY  however I DO think Lester should get some votes for COY.  In his first year he takes a team to 7-2 possibly 8-2.  I think he's resurrected this program and now has the team believing they can compete against anybody. 

JB,
Somehow I dont get the feeling Kudyba was thinking about NCC at the half against a game Millikin bunch! 

Also, I would agree with a Bluejay win on saturday coach Lester would and should get strong consideration for COY.  However, with a Cardinal win on saturday coach Thorne could and should win COY unanimously! 

[RadioNotes]

Not going to lie, a little ticked off about the poll question on the front of the page.
.

2 Things:
1) He has a point...it is a SLAM on all the CCIW teams and the conference as a whole!
How does this make Auggie feel that this comes up right after the CARDS win? Suddenly
the Cards aren't that good....based on one bad game on D?  Why can't it be because of
excellent Auggie Offense and motivation on Augustanas part to make it a great game?

2) The Cards D will bounce back.  All teams have a bad week on one side of the ball,
but GREAT teams compensate for it....That group of guys on Defense will be back
better than ever...they are way too good to have another down week anytime soon!
Not to mention I believe they have EXTRA motivation this coming week???

[HScoach]

The regional rankings come out on Wednesday and could look like this:

1. Mt. Union
2. North Central
3. Wabash
4. Trine
5. Case
6. Otterbein
7. Franklin
8. Aurora


If the North isn't shuffled (and everybody wins this weekend who is supposed to win) that puts North Central home against Franklin and then vs the Ott/Wabash winner. a few comments:

-Wabash (Depauw) and Otterbein (John Carrol) have tough games this weekend
-Aurora plays Lakeland and the winner gets to play North #1 in round 1
-If Cortland loses to Ithaca, MUC could well be an East #1 again (as Yspi says). That moves everyone up 1 slot and brings Thomas More potentially into the North bracket. that would result in NCC vs Aurora/Lakeland winner and wabash/Thomas more in round 1.

I agree 100%.  The best thing for NCC is for Ithaca to beat Cortland State thereby eliminating the East's natural #1 seed.  Which would likely mean MUC moves East again.   

It might also help a little for Wabash to beat Depauw making the north as stacked as possible with MUC, NCC and Wabash all sitting 10-0 with good resumes and OPW/OOPW ratings.

I'm also curious to see how the four top seeds are ranked for the semi-final pairings.  With Whitewater losing already, I think it's pretty safe to say that MUC will the overall top seed.  But if Cortland St beats Ithaca, then the battle for 2nd or 3rd between them and NCC (if shipped west) is going to be interesting and very close. 

As a MUC guy, I'm kind of hoping NCC gets shipped into the West as the top seed to knock out Whitewater in the regional final.

[New Tradition]

To have any chance of competing for a national championship,  NCC would have to play defense significantly better than they did yesterday.  A game like yesterday's will not get it done against the best teams in the country.

Exactly.

You are correct, there are situations that arose yesterday defensively that need to be addressed, and I'm sure they will by Coach Wienke the Cardinal coaching staff.  In a way, I'm glad that Augie was able to do some of the things that they did on offense because not only do our future opponents get the tape, but so does the NCC coaching staff, and I'm sure they will do what they can to shore up some of the weaknesses exploited by Augustana's solid offensive play on Saturday.

[ncc58]

I know Thorne will get COY  however I DO think Lester should get some votes for COY.  In his first year he takes a team to 7-2 possibly 8-2.  I think he's resurrected this program and now has the team believing they can compete against anybody. 

My argument against Lester would be that Elmhurst was never in the CCIW race. They lost their first and fourth conference games, and were sitting at 2-2 (with one of those wins against North Park) - two games back. Until they beat Wheaton, no one was thinking about Elmhurst too much.

[usee]

I am also not certain Mt Union wouldn't be moved East or NCC West no matter what the result this weekend. There doesn't seem to be any evidence that the committee won't be willing to move a #1 or #2 from the North into another region if they think that gets them the 4 strongest #1 seeds.

[79jaybird]

Midwest FB- Yes, however Paul Krohn was a co-COY and Elmhurst finished 6-4, never in the CCIW hunt either.  Up until NC's win over Augie, Elmhurst still had a mathematical chance, albeit a very long shot.  Don't get me wrong, I do think Thorne will get COY, but also think Lester should be looked at too.

[Mugsy]

It is clear (at least to me) that the competitive level of the CCIW has significantly improved top to bottom, given the fact that since 2000 nearly every team has won at least one CCIW crown (except for North Park and Elmhurst).  It is also widely held that the CCIW ranks high in relative strength nationally as a conference - it has been a top 5 ranked conference by D3Football consistently.

The CCIW has had a number of teams represent the conference admirably in the playoffs, in most cases until reaching Alliance.  For that reason the CCIW record in playoffs hovers around .500 (win a playoff game, then get beat by MUC).  There have been a few posters who over the past 3 years or so have questioned whether or not the conference is slipping a little in strength.  I have not been one of those posters and I take pride in the CCIW, but what I discovered in last weeks CCIW Notes was a bit disconcerting.

While the CCIW finished 19-5 overall during the non-conference schedule, a 79% winning percentage; the cummulative record of the non-conference foes for the year brings into question just how impressive (or not so) the 19-5 record is for 2008.

Consider:
Coe: 3-6
Benedictine: 3-6
Hope: 1-7
Illinois College: 4-6
Carroll: 7-3
Greenville: 6-4
Olivet: 1-8
Alma: 4-4
Loras: 5-4
Ohio Northern: 4-5
Rose-Hulman: 7-3
Bethel: 4-5
Aurora: 8-1
Albion: 4-5
Concordia (Wis): 4-5
UW-Platteville: 4-5
Campbell: 1-8
Chicago: 3-5

Cumulatively that is a record of 73-90 or 44%.

Statisticians would indicate that one need to consider a block of years in this way to calculate some probability and to determine an overall trend.  

I do also realize it isn't as simple as just looking at the cumulative record.  For instance some teams have considerable swings year to year.  Just look at Hope or Bethel... they have had a huge drop off this year.  Some of these teams play in elite conferences, so a 4-5 Ohio Northern or a 4-5 UW-Platteville team may (and I say may) be considered a good team.  Likewise a 7-3 Carroll, a 6-4 Greenville or a 7-3 Rose-Hulman team, may not be as good as their record indicates.

I'm not saying the CCIW isn't a good football conference, I just wondering if it isn't as good as we think?

North Central can quiet this question in my mind regarding this in a few weeks.

Just some food for thought...

[Mugsy]

It would also help to look at the cumulative record of non-conference opponents for other conferences to lend some comparative analysis.

That said... results in the playoffs probably factors the highest in relative strength of conferences.