FB: Northwest Conference

[cawcdad]

I made it. Plowed through snow and rain to get here just like the Cats will plow through and fly over the Warhawks tomorrow!! See everyone at the tailgate.
ONE GAME AT A TIME! LEAVE NO DOUBT!!!

[mikeb525]

Hello everyone...  I'm a Mt. Union Faithful and I'm trying to research you guys a little more as we both come close to a great Stagg Bowl...  Linfield vs. Mt. Union

Did you guys play a couple of NAIA or D-II teams...??  I seen the schedule but I thought this would be the best place for true research...

If you help a bit...  that would be great...  Thanks!

[bluenote]

...sorry, but we'vre busy right now.   

[mikeb525]

...  that's OK.  I really don't feel you'll get past WW....  I just wanted to see how much you pump yourself up...

[Lever Street]

Tomorrow am I"ll be driving an hour to CatDome.  The wife has let me out 3 straight weeks to see the Cats play.  

Whitewater  17
Cats             35

['Cats Fa Natic]

Okay, for what it's worth, here's my two cents. Predictions at the end if you don't like stats.

Overall, Linfield and UWW seem to be pretty evenly matched. However, it is hard to do a straight head-to-head comparison because for the majority of Linfield's games, our starters were out in the third quarter, where UWW's starters, based on the write-ups, are often playing late into the 4th quarter, even when the game is well in hand.  Even so, here they are:

                  Linfield    UWW
Games played   10   12
Total Offense   4923   5874
Avg. yards per play   7.6   6.6
Avg. yards / game   492.3   489.5
Points per game   48.6   40.6
Interceptions   7   16
Fumbles-lost   17-7   12-4
Total turnovers lost   14   20

Defensively, they also seem to match well.

                  Linfield   UWW
Yards allowed   3167   3605
Average per game   316.7   300.4
Interceptions   23   22
Interceptions/game   2.3   1.8
Fumbles-recovered   21-10   26-16
Tot. TOs gained   43   38

It's in the area of turnovers that seems to have the largest discrepancy. Elliot has thrown only 7 interceptions all year in 355 pass attempts, for an average of one interception every 50.71 passes. On the other hand, UWW has 16 interceptions in 362 pass attempts, for an average of one interception every 22.62 passes.

Linfield also appears to have a much more efficient offense. They've only punted the ball 31 times for 1141 yards, whereas UWW has 900 more yards of total offense but had to punt the ball almost twice as often: 61 times for 1999 yards. Linfield also is much better at converting 3rd downs: converting 59 times on 115 attempts (51.3%) whereas UWW converted 76 times on 174 (43.7%). On 4th downs, Linfield converted 7 of 11 attempts (63.6%), but UWW converted only 6 of 13  attempts (46.2%).

Linfield has the edge in special teams.  Linfield averages 19.3 yards on kick returns and 9.1 yards on punt return. UWW averages only 12.9 on kick returns, and 11.1 on punts.

Just as turnovers prevented a larger margin of victory against the Cobbers last week (I think we could have easily ended up with a 28 point victory had it not been for two key turnovers), turnovers have played big roles in UWW victories. The UWW game against St. John's University (SJU) is the best example of this. Many people in Div-III were expecting the Johnnies to win that game but SJU had eight turnovers (seven fumbles, one INT.) and all of these seemed to come at the worst possible times. On punts, deep in UWW territory or deep in the own territory. Interestingly, considering the sheer number of T.O.'s and where they were, UWW only won by less than 4 TDs.

Since I'm talking about past games, UWW was extremely lucky to escape with a win against unranked UW-La Crosse, 29-23. UWL probably would have won the game if they hadn't turned over the ball on each of their five possessions in the last 20 minutes.

Scouting Report

On offense, UWW runs a pro set, using mainly the I formation with either two receivers and a tight end or sometimes three WRs. Such a conventional offense will probably be a relief to our defense, which consistently struggles against option running attacks and scrambling QBs.

UWW's Justin Beaver is Division III's leading rusher, gaining 1960 yards on 340 attempts for an average of 5.6 yards and 18 TDs. He rarely gets hit behind the line or, if he does, he rarely loses yardage, only losing 47 yards. He's hardly a huge runner. He's a block at 5-8 and 196. Their other rusher is Andy Lange, who's very much in Beaver's shadow with 452 yards on the year but for an impressive 7.9 yard-per-carry average.

Justin Jacobs is their QB. His efficiency is 149.87, completing 164 out of 306 attempts (53.6%) for 2756 yards and 27 TDs. He doesn't scramble much and isn't especially effective when he does: with 45 attempts, he has only 189 yards with 98 yards for loss and a net of only 91 yards. But don't be surprised that in a goal line situation if he takes it in himself. He has four rushing TDs on the year.

Incidentally, one other don't-be-surprised is for Linfield to not play soft at the end of the first half. Despite being up 24-0 in against St. Xavier, UWW heaved a Hail Mary for a TD to end the half.

The two main receivers are Jim Leszcznski with 62 receptions for 992 yards (16.0 average) and Derek Stanley with 40 receptions and 979 yards (24.5 yards per catch). Leszcznski gets much of the press but Stanley has two more TDs on the year and a 50% higher per-catch average. Neither receiver is that tall or big. Leszcznski is only 5-11 and 200 and Stanley is 5-11 and 175. (By comparison, Casey Allen is 6-3 and 225.) They do throw to their tight end, Pete Schmitt, who is the third leading receiver on the team with 29 catches for 395 yards, a 13.6 average. They do have a third WR, Lance Douglas, who is 6-4, 195, and has almost exactly as many catches as the TE, 28 catches for 408 yards (13.6 yards per catch).

Thoughts

Much of the buzz about UWW has been its offensive line play and its ability to open holes and protect the quarterback. They have certainly been able to open holes for Beaver, but they have only done half the job protecting their QB as our line has done for Elliot. UWW allowed 9 sacks on the year, but we've only allowed 5, and two (or was it three?) of those were last game. The do seem to have a big O-line. I only have their year's roster and not their playoff roster but they carried20 offensive linemen during the regular season. They only have one senior and two juniors among them and all of them seem big. I'd guess the O-line averages about 280.

Speaking of sacks, our D has done a better job getting after the opponents' QBs. We've sacked opponents 29 times (a loss of 174 yards), and UWW has only 22 sacks (in 2 more games mind you), for 141 yards.  That's 2.9 sacks per game for us, 1.8 sacks per game for them.

The report on UWW is they're hard hitters, but I'm not sure the stats necessarily bear that out. As noted above, UWW caused 26 fumbles, recovering 16 of them, but take away the SJU game, and it's only 18 fumbles with 9 recoveries in eleven games. That's less than one fumble recovery per game.

The crowd at Maxwell Field may be a bit of a factor. We average 4,300 attendance, where they're used to an average attendance of 3,300.

In summary, this is a well-balanced offensive team that is obviously capable of putting up points. It's hard to do a straight head-to-head stats comparison between Linfield and UWW for the simple fact that we pull our starters much earlier than they apparently do. Our CBs, Hazenburg and Armstrong, are as tall as their receivers--although Chris Boock at 5-8 has a slight disadvantage--and should be able to cover. In an effort to stop the run, we'll probably pull the safeties up.  I expect our defense to step up big, because they know if they don't, it could be a very ugly game for us.  I don't see their defense as being as tough as the Cobbers' defense so I expect us to play up to our usual level and we should see the deep ball to Casey Allen. If we start having success deep on them, it could be a rout.

Assuming we don't turn the ball over like SJU did (I think we certainly learned our lesson last week), we should come out ahead. I don't see us running up 63 on them, but I do see a 49-28 Linfield victory.

Go 'Cats!!

['Cats Fa Natic]

...  that's OK.  I really don't feel you'll get past WW....  I just wanted to see how much you pump yourself up...

Haven't you ever heard of not looking ahead? And why even bother to ask if you really feel that way.

Boy, for someone who has only four posts, you sure know how to look stupid in a hurry.   

[Tom Brady]

OK guys and gals, this is my final name-change.  I am now officially a Linfield fan......at least for the rest of this season .

Good luck to all and safe travels to everyone.  Hope there was plenty of Advil left after tonight for tomorrow morning.

[rockcat]

Ok, 12 hours to go.  Big day tomorrow.  Welcome the Warhawks to the Catdome well fellas.  Have fun at the game to those who can make it.  You should go in t-shirts and stand in the rain to intimidate the Warhawk fans.  I'll be part of the mobile Catdome Nation listening from afar.

Smack talk aside, good luck to both teams....no injuries!

[river]

Battle of unbeatens and Linfield v. WW from Reid English's articles.  Go Wildcats!

['Cats Fa Natic]

iiiiiiiiit's GAME DAY!

['Cats Fa Natic]

Where are all the Elks members?  I wanted to hear film break down... are they still sleeping it off?  Wimps!

['Cats Fa Natic]

Is this another chowder-blow in the making...?

['Cats Fa Natic]

Is this another chowder-blow in the making...?

Silence...

Everyone must either be unconscious or already at the tailgate.  Ah well. Heading out the door at nine myself.

[D O.C.]

I found Elk.

Bunch a blow hards standing around bleating while up on the screen (eventually) was a large, fast, tough, talented team from THE toughest conference in the whole division.  I hope all those blowhards noticed that team on the screen wore purple just like the d3 most revered team from oHIo.

Is this a moment of doubt and faith?

                                                                                                                               Naw, I'm just way too cold but it will be worth it.                                 LET'S GO 'CATS