FB: Northwest Conference

[D O.C.]

Over rated?: LINFIELD, WIAC, St. Johns

[hazzben]

The one penalty that was obvious against Bethel was a PI near the goal line. Linfield scored a few plays later on the drive so it was a non-event. There was some flags both ways that could have been thrown against both sides, but in general the crew let the teams play.

[wildcat11]

The one penalty that was obvious against Bethel was a PI near the goal line. Linfield scored a few plays later on the drive so it was a non-event. There was some flags both ways that could have been thrown against both sides, but in general the crew let the teams play.

Agreed. Bethel won because they played better than Linfield in all three phases of the game.

[Ice Bear]

Ice Bear just watched the game and has a couple of thoughts:
-Linfield is really good and IIBHO was a big play or two away from really shooting it out with the Royals
-Valadez and McNabb are really good players and fun to watch, Ice looks forward to seeing more from them next year
-Ice once again loved the Wildcat game presentation and commentators
-Bethel's tight mistake free football was a big difference maker in this game
-the Royals ran the ball no matter what, no matter what
-Geebli is a ****ing monster whose low center of gravity and strength sucked lots of life out of the Wildcat D
-Rockin Roste was a field general and competed at an incredibly high level getting the ball to some excellent receivers
-this football game was played at a very high level by both teams and IIBHO made all of D3

[bluenote]

Agreed. Bethel won because they played better than Linfield in all three phases of the game.

Was that coaching or just better athletes? Or just luck of the day? I'm curious what your opinion is?

[wildcat11]

Agreed. Bethel won because they played better than Linfield in all three phases of the game.

Was that coaching or just better athletes? Or just luck of the day? I'm curious what your opinion is?

I think there were tremendous athletes all over the field on both sides of the ball.  Bethel executed their plan better and at a higher rate. We play this game 10 times and I think it would be a very competitive series but I don't think you can overlook the difference when you have a  talented senior  qb under center manning a capable offense. 

Look at Linfield last year with Wyatt. That type of experience, with talent, matters a ton in playoff football and Roste is 100% an extension of his OC on the field. He threw one bad ball and we didn't make him pay.

I think Eaton can get to that point for Linfield and he had a TREMENDOUS season for a kid that only started 4 games during his High School career. This season and playoff games will serve him well next year and beyond.

[Ralph Turner]

Over rated?: LINFIELD, WIAC, St. Johns

No.

I want to see how well Del Val does at home against UMU. HFA ought to be 5 points in this case, maybe an 8 point swing, by NOT going to Alliance.

[Pat Coleman]

Actually, Logan said on our podcast last offseason that Mount Union has one of the lowest home field advantages, because they just beat people the same, home or away.

Here's what switching home field did to Del Val's chances:
https://twitter.com/LogHanRatings/status/1596937557912133632

[Ralph Turner]

Actually, Logan said on our podcast last offseason that Mount Union has one of the lowest home field advantages, because they just beat people the same, home or away.

Here's what switching home field did to Del Val's chances:
https://twitter.com/LogHanRatings/status/1596937557912133632

Precisely. There are so few games in the sample in which UMU is facing a roughly comparable opponent to measure. The UMU games are usually Monkey-Stomp by halftime, home or away.

I looked at the last 6 full regular seasons (2022, 2021, 2016 thru 2019) for UMU. They played 54 conference games. The margin in 46 of those games was more than 21 points. The only defeat was the JCU loss in 2016, 31-28 in Alliance. Five of the 8 "close games" were with JCU.

That is not a very large sample size.

With respect to flipping host responsibilities from UMU to Del Val, I see the UMU was better than a 10:1 chance to beat Del Val. With the Aggies hosting, it is now only 7.3:1. Is that another way of stating the 91%/9% and 88%/12% probabilities?

(Queue the Jim Carrey meme, "I got a chance.")

[olddog]

WC,

I agree with you on the QB play. I noticed in the UR, PP and BU...games, the OC seem to forget he had a new QB. Asked him to do things he is not ready to do. Plus LF offensive line look the worse I have ever seen. They blew a few pass blocking schemes and your tackles struggled one on one. I still think the OC should have ran the ball more in the first half. LF was the quicker team and never took advantage to that fact too. Throw in losing special teams battle to a good team and your done. I am sure LF will comeback strong next year.

[RFBredux]

WC,

I agree with you on the QB play. I noticed in the UR, PP and BU...games, the OC seem to forget he had a new QB. Asked him to do things he is not ready to do. Plus LF offensive line look the worse I have ever seen. They blew a few pass blocking schemes and your tackles struggled one on one. I still think the OC should have ran the ball more in the first half. LF was the quicker team and never took advantage to that fact too. Throw in losing special teams battle to a good team and your done. I am sure LF will comeback strong next year.

Linfield over the last 20 years have slowly moved away from the run. This is mostly due to offensive system philosophy in 2022 where the RPO and short pass game replicates much of a traditional run game.

However, I don't think Linfield wins another national championship unless they get back to the bell cow run game they used to punish teams with. David Russell, Thomas Ford, Simon Lamson, Riley Jenkins etc. were dominant running backs. Linfield has had good backs since, but if they can get back to having a 250+ season ball carrier they will be much better positioned to get over the top again.

[George Thompson]

RFBredux:

"Linfield over the last 20 years have slowly moved away from the run. This is mostly due to offensive system philosophy in 2022 where the RPO and short pass game replicates much of a traditional run game.

However, I don't think Linfield wins another national championship unless they get back to the bell cow run game they used to punish teams with. David Russell, Thomas Ford, Simon Lamson, Riley Jenkins etc. were dominant running backs. Linfield has had good backs since, but if they can get back to having a 250+ season ball carrier they will be much better positioned to get over the top again."

Agree 100%.   

GT

[George Thompson]

Over rated?: LINFIELD, WIAC, St. Johns

Linfield, yes.   They were good, but not #4 in the nation.   Tend to think the WIAC and St. John's were below par for them.

GT

[emma17]

Over rated?: LINFIELD, WIAC, St. Johns

Linfield, yes.   They were good, but not #4 in the nation.   Tend to think the WIAC and St. John's were below par for them.

GT

Can't comment on Linfield as I only saw some of the Bethel game. I was impressed w Linfield's speed on offense, which is usually the case for me.

If by the WIAC Doc means UWW and UWL, they were ranked 7 and 8 respectively. I'm not here to argue UWW's rating as I really don't care- their measuring point w the talent they get should be national championship.

For the sake of this discussion- UWW has played inconsistent all season, however, they have a feather in the cap no other team has for a few years now- a victory(s) over UMHB. Say what you will about when/where the 2022 game was played and UWW's near perfect offensive performance, when it mattered, UWW had what it took to win the game. Hard to say #8 in the country is over rating a team w that real ability.

As for UWL, it's not been publicized much, but they were without QB2 vs. Wartburg. UWL QB's split time during the season. QB 2 was the running threat and the second leading rusher on the team w 600 yards and 8 TD's rushing, and also had a slightly higher passing rating than QB 1. Injuries are part of the game I get it, but if any other top 10 team lost a QB of such importance to the offense, they'd be exposed as well.

I think St. John's was rated appropriately. Wartburg and Bethel should have been higher all season.

[02 Warhawk]

Over rated?: LINFIELD, WIAC, St. Johns

Linfield, yes.   They were good, but not #4 in the nation.   Tend to think the WIAC and St. John's were below par for them.

GT

Can't comment on Linfield as I only saw some of the Bethel game. I was impressed w Linfield's speed on offense, which is usually the case for me.

If by the WIAC Doc means UWW and UWL, they were ranked 7 and 8 respectively. I'm not here to argue UWW's rating as I really don't care- their measuring point w the talent they get should be national championship.

For the sake of this discussion- UWW has played inconsistent all season, however, they have a feather in the cap no other team has for a few years now- a victory(s) over UMHB. Say what you will about when/where the 2022 game was played and UWW's near perfect offensive performance, when it mattered, UWW had what it took to win the game. Hard to say #8 in the country is over rating a team w that real ability.

As for UWL, it's not been publicized much, but they were without QB2 vs. Wartburg. UWL QB's split time during the season. QB 2 was the running threat and the second leading rusher on the team w 600 yards and 8 TD's rushing, and also had a slightly higher passing rating than QB 1. Injuries are part of the game I get it, but if any other top 10 team lost a QB of such importance to the offense, they'd be exposed as well.

I think St. John's was rated appropriately. Wartburg and Bethel should have been higher all season.

Well said Emma.

Between SJU, Linfield and UWW...two of those 3 teams had signature win(s) this year to prove their worth.

Grouping them all as overrated seems a little lazy to me.