FB: Northwest Conference

[Gig Harbor Cat]

Oh and Stats dont mean Jack !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Just ask anyone thats been between the lines

CATS are a +33 against the bearkitties on Sat.  Launch the purple frisbees boys, its over at the half

Phone it in.

   GHC and Mojo the hound doggie

[rbaikie]

they play another tough team in Azusa Pacific this weekend. APU is 1-3, but get this: their 3 losses are against UW-Whitewater (#2 in D3), UW-La Crosse (top 10 in D3), and San Diego (#1 in 1-AA Mid-Majors). Talk about an insane schedule.

They make up for it with the rest of their schedule - I posted this a while ago....

"Their focus, as usual, is to play some D2's (Dixie, Humboldt), NAIA, and D1AA (San Diego). It is interesting though that among their games they have picked up a number of "young" programs.

Malone has had football since 1993 and has a new coach.
Dixie State is in its first year of "4-year" football after having been a 2 yr college.
Webber International started football in 2003.
Southern Nazerene has had football for 6 years.

But from their perspective, they are NAIA schools (except Dixie) and that factors into the rankings which factors into making the playoffs."

As an independent, APU has to finish (I believe) in the top 12 of the NAIA to get into the playoffs. They do this mostly by beating NAIA teams. If they beat an occasional NCAA school (any level) that can only help.

[Foss]

rbaikie,

Fine, I suppose I should have said they have a difficult early season schedule. Still, playing 4 top 20 teams in your first 5 games is quite the challenge.

[Catville Commissioner Elect]

Swede,

Sorry I didn't get a chance to talk to you last night.  I hope they got the old ticker back in sync by itself and they did not have to give you the high voltage treatment today so you are back monitoring the board and will be at the TG Saturday.

As one who has been there done that, the only good thing about lying in the hospital in one of those class clad rooms is some of the great nurses or at least enough drugs to make you think they are great looking nurses. 

If you are feeling poorly Saturday make sure you let me know.  I will bring some of my old IV practice needles, pole, etc. and we can run you a drip of high octane pain killer courtesy of GHC and then have you down a couple of TuxGuys great sticks.  That will get you up and kicking and ready for some great FB watching the Cat Dome explode as Kittie Litter flies all over the field courtesy of the Bearkittens. 

Anyway, hope you are there and don't have to listen to the D&D Dynamic Duo, but if you do us TGers will be thinking of you (well at least until the longies go down and the frisbees start flying.

Brother Topcat   

[speedybigboy]

Daaaaaamn, hatchetman was just praying somebody would say something so that he could dump all that data on them.  

I'm actually interested to see how that game will turn out, as well.

yea, i kinda figured he was just waiting to jump in with something, but heh how much fun is it just to read cat fans talking about longies.

I'm with GHC, stats don't mean much, but until Saturday it's all we got.

H-man,

I looked further at the Logger stats and I'd hardly say they "dominated" those games on offense and defense.  Interestingly they have fewer first downs then their opponents and are behind on time of possesion and conversely the Lutes have more first downs then their opponents and lead in TOP.  What really stands out in both teams stats turnovers.  The Lutes have 11 in 3 games and the Loggers have 3.  If PLU keeps up that pace it'll be a long season with few wins.

Home field advantage? It only helps if you have enough fans show up to affect the other team and/or the other team has to travel some distance to the game.  You only had 1000 fans at your home game last week.  I know, more people will come out for UPS vs. PLU but many of them will be Lute fans.  It's not like going to the "Catdome" . 

Lastly, for now, a question, have they not been playing the Lutes at home any of the last "18 to 20" years?

[wyd]

Oi vey! The Lute fans must really be down this year...it's Wednesday and the only person we've heard from all week is d-train?

Yikes!

C'mon Lute-fans! Where's the ol' EMAL spirit? I'm waiting to get into a heated discussion with someone!

Hatchetman - Here's my take on the game, FWIW.  UPS is 3-0 against 3 bad teams, two wins were only by one score.  PLU has lost to two average teams and one good team.  This weeks game will be close.  I'll take my Lutes 29-27 over the loggers .

p.s. Linfield smokes Willamette by four td's and Whitworth beats AP by 10.

Alright! A challenger!  Anyway, let's go over the teams PLU has faced and do some quick math work.

Cal Lutheran I can give to you.  They went 8-1 last year and have a 10 game winning streak.  PLU did play them at home, and it was close. Good game.

UW-River Falls was NOT good. Not even average.  Last year's record of 3-7 is below average. If a kid took a test and got a 3-7..he'd fail.  Bad team. Played at PLU.

Chapman...wow. I can't imagine calling them an average team.  They went 2-7 last year, and they haven't posted a winning record since 1999.  Not good...not even average.  And they put up 34 on the Lutes.  Played at Chapman.

Last years combined record. 13-15. Yuck.


CMS is also not good. 2-7 last year. Bad team there. And UPS showed it, shutting them out and putting 21 on their heads. Played at UPS.

Laverne was decent last year, going 5-4. They beat UPS last year, but UPS avenged that loss.  On the road.

Whittier was another bad team last year, going 2-7. Pretty poor, but played at Whittier. 

Last years combined record 9-18.  Pretty bad.

So...technically, both teams have played 1 team with a previous winning record and two teams with AWFUL records.  Granted 5-4 isn't great, but You can't say PLU has played two previously average teams. 
Advantage: Neutral


While this may not be a stunning testament to why the Loggers will win, let's look at some other things.

Points for and against:

For UPS 75  Against 40

For PLU 56  Against 83

Hmm...there's a stunning difference there. Looks like the loggers have dominated offensively and defensively.  Even the offenisive powerhouse that is Whitworth only put up 79 and 32 against.  Not too shappy by the Loggers.
Advantage: Loggers

Oh, and let's talk game location.  PLU has played two games at home, and one away.  The one away game was to their WORST opponent, in Chapman. They should've won, but got walluped instead.

UPS has played two games away, in California, and one at home.  The two games in California were close, but the one game at home was a shutout.

Where are the Loggers and Lutes playing?

At Peyton Field, not Sparky stadium. 
Advantage: Loggers


Finally, the Loggers beat the Lutes last year for the first time in what...18...20 years? The Loggers are pumped, they're finally playing their cross-town rivals at home, and they are looking to bust-up some Lutes.

"FTL!  For the Loggers!"

Chop'em down Loggers.

h-man

PLU has won 15 of the last 16 meetings (or something crazy like that)..........   The return to Dominance starts against the loggers!

[speedybigboy]

UW-River Falls was NOT good. Not even average.  Last year's record of 3-7 is below average. If a kid took a test and got a 3-7..he'd fail.  Bad team. Played at PLU.

h-man

If a batter was 3-7 he'd be in the majors.  At least River Falls was 3-7 in arguably the best conference in D3. 

In their preseason rankings this site has Cal Lu, RF, and Chapman listed at 52, 96, and 177 respectively.  They had Laverne, Claremont, & Whittier at 107, 157, and 179. 

So, after further review (with the help of an Oregon replay official  ), I revise my statement to this

PLU has played a very good team, an average team, and a not very good team.
UPS has played an average team, a below average team, and a not very good team.

[hatchetman75]

But the Lutes are only 1-1 with Scott Westering.

Good pick up on the pre-season rankings...when you're looking at stats, you just gotta pick the stuff that makes the ball spin your way.

I'm still not convinced of the quality of River Falls and Chapman. I can give you Cal Lu though. 

IMO, when anyone from the East Coast starts heading out west, they think the caliber of athletes drops, thus the funny rankings of some of the Cal schools.  I think LaVerne can play with most people, if they play them in that sandlot they call a field.

[hatchetman75]

Daaaaaamn, hatchetman was just praying somebody would say something so that he could dump all that data on them.  

I'm actually interested to see how that game will turn out, as well.

H-man,

I looked further at the Logger stats and I'd hardly say they "dominated" those games on offense and defense.  Interestingly they have fewer first downs then their opponents and are behind on time of possesion and conversely the Lutes have more first downs then their opponents and lead in TOP.  What really stands out in both teams stats turnovers.  The Lutes have 11 in 3 games and the Loggers have 3.  If PLU keeps up that pace it'll be a long season with few wins.

Home field advantage? It only helps if you have enough fans show up to affect the other team and/or the other team has to travel some distance to the game.  You only had 1000 fans at your home game last week.  I know, more people will come out for UPS vs. PLU but many of them will be Lute fans.  It's not like going to the "Catdome" . 

Yeah, but it IS to an advantage when you're travelling a good distance. It's not like high school, when you hop on the bus for a few hours.  When you're playing in Calif or coming up to WA it always hurts the team travelling.  It's a pain in the ass, you're sleeping in a different bed, and you eat crappy food.

Just doesn't work out for the best.  So I still stick with my homefield advantage talk.

Weekend Preview Coming up......

[hatchetman75]

APU at Whitworth

APU struggles on the long road trip up to Spokompton. The flights and delays only make it worse as they come out onto the cold Spokane turf. However, they put up a decent fight.

Whitworth 24 APU 14


Willamette at Linfield

The purple frisbees fly. The "fly" sinks.  Linfield grabs their first win of the season. The Bearkits continual to struggle.

Linfield 28 Willamette 10


PLU at UPS

FTL! The Loggers keep rolling on.  Kavin Williams has a HUGE day, 150 yards passing and 100 rushing due to the Lutes focus on Rory Lee.  Lee still chugs out 100 yards rushing.  4 Lute turnovers seal the deal.

UPS 28 PLU 3


And for an extra special treat....here's my season ending preview.

UPS 9-1  Conf. 5-1
Whitworth 9-1  Conf. 5-1
Linfield 6-3 Conf. 5-1
Willamette 3-6 Conf. 3-3
Menlo 4-6  Conf. 2-4
PLU 1-8 Conf. 1-5
LC 0-9 Conf. 0-6

I won't tell you how that happens, but it will.

['Cats Fa Natic]

My inside source says that the Lutes are a +3 in this one.

I think they are breaking out the yellow shorts and the secret trick play book.

 GHC

I think I'm going with the Loggers in that one.  They've been a program on the rise the last couple years, while the Lutes... well, 'nough said.

[spiritof86]

I love enthusiasm as much as the next guy, but it is kind of hard for me to take the Loggers all that seriously. Maybe I will be singing a different tune in a few weeks, but until then I think I am going to continue to think "ahhhhh, how quaint. The ups fan(s) think they have a chance. That is sweet."

[hatchetman75]

The Cat fans aren't the only ones who can have enthusiasm. Let's just hope that is the Cats go in the toilet that you guys still have that same sort of die-hard "we can win this" attitude.

And I never said where, who, and how the top teams losses came in. 

I also hope your not figuring the Lutes to win....I just don't think it will happen.

[pennstlbu]

Wow. I return from basically the end of the earth after a few months and find Linfield and PLU winless. And then UPS is undefeated. What's going on here? Sure it's not actually basketball season?

[coco]

It seems almost like an alternate universe, doesn't it?

Linfield plays Willamette tomorrow, so that one will change.