Top 25 talk

[smedindy]

No, the timing doesn't work - but I use it as a guide for my voting. I don't ALWAYS trust the computers, but it spots teams that I may have missed.

[Greek Tragedy]

To all:

As you know, I do a power rating amalgamation, and I just updated it. Here is the top 25:

1. Lawrence
2. Augustana

15. Carroll

Interesting that you have Lawrence ahead of Augustana.  I know that Lawrence is undefeated, but Augustana, I feel, plays in a much tougher conference with the likes of Ill. Wes, North Central and even Elmhurst (all who have been ranked, though not sure if "rankings" figure into your formula) with only one more loss.  I would also think Carroll might be a little higher since they've only lost to your #1 rated team and to Whitewater, who was "ranked" when they played them, I believe.

Obviously being in the same conference, LU and Carroll have basically played the same schedule, with LU beating Oshkosh in OT and Carroll losing by one.  I dont' want you to think Carroll should be #3 or anything though! 

[smedindy]

Rankings mean nothing, its power rankings that matter. Lawrence's SOS is quite good, too (28th vs. 11th for Augie). Carroll is down due to their SOS (53rd).

All this will change, of course, in due time.

[Greek Tragedy]

Rankings mean nothing, its power rankings that matter. Lawrence's SOS is quite good, too (28th vs. 11th for Augie). Carroll is down due to their SOS (53rd).

All this will change, of course, in due time.

So, where does Lawrence's "power ranking" come into play that it is superior and makes up for LU's SOS of 28, against Augie's SOS of 11? 

It's your formula!  Just trying to figure it out a little bit and get an explanation.  And I'm not even an Augie fan. 

[Mr. Ypsi]

OS, I wondered the same thing!

Smed, how can an SOS of 28 possibly translate into a #1 ranking.  My hunch would be that (unbeknownst to you) SOS is NOT a real factor in your rankings (i.e., somewhere in the calculations, it got squelched).

Unless W-L record is the OVERWHELMING criterion, an SOS discrepancy that large should send up a HUGE red flag.

Your rankings do not at all upset me (Lawrence, Augie, Woo, Witt, etc., are as rational as any), but your rationale seems a bit weak.

[Pat Coleman]

I would think having the 28th-toughest schedule among 395 or so teams is pretty good.

[Mr. Ypsi]

I would think having the 28th-toughest schedule among 395 or so teams is pretty good.

Obviously pretty good for top 25 (or even top 10) purposes, but for #1?!  (He didn't give enough info for full analysis, but #2 was 17 slots ahead in SOS!)

I suspect there may be a glitch in his program, that's all.

[Pat Coleman]

Both are in the 90th percentile of schedules. I don't think you have to have a Top 10 schedule to be a Top 10 team. The results are important as well as the schedule.

[Greek Tragedy]

I would think having the 28th-toughest schedule among 395 or so teams is pretty good.

I agree.  But so is the 11th toughest schedule...which Augie has according to smedindy.  I'm trying to figure out, and I'm sure we'll get an answer from him, where the difference comes in, if it's not the rankings (which I never thought it was).

Both are in the 90th percentile of schedules. I don't think you have to have a Top 10 schedule to be a Top 10 team. The results are important as well as the schedule.

So, that one loss Augie had at Stout makes up the difference?  I haven't checked the actual scores, but maybe LU is blowing out all their opponents while Augie is just scraping by.  Not sure. 

I'm not questioning his program at all, just want an explanation.  Like I said, I'm not even an Augie fan or an LU hater, just curious! 

[Mr. Ypsi]

Agreed, but would a 1-game difference in results overcome a 17 slot difference in SOS?

And (I wonder) who are those other 26 teams in the top 28 SOS, and what are their records?

As I said earlier, SOS of 28 may be helpful for top 25 (maybe even top 10), but for #1?!  [By no means am I knocking Larry.  While I had them third on my ballot (1. Woo, 2. Augie), PP voters overall had them 2nd.]

[Pat Coleman]

Agreed, but would a 1-game difference in results overcome a 17 slot difference in SOS?

Out of 395 teams, that a 4% difference. Aren't you the statistics professor?

I don't know what smed will answer to these questions but the fact remains that this is NOT a big difference in strength of schedule.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Pat,

Yes, I'm the stat prof.  And a 4% difference in standing (among 395 teams) would mean the difference between first and 16th (which is FAR more than the difference being discussed)!  I've often had reason to think I should have thought before I posted - perhaps you should realize that you should have that epiphany as well.

I have no problem with you - why do you have such a problem with me?

[smedindy]

SOS is one factor, but the power ratings from Wolfe and Massey are a second factor (which Lawrence tops Augie) and then there is my own factor, of which Lawrence tops Augie. And SOS is the lowest of the three factors. I weight the factors as to their importance in my eyes.

In order the questions I state are:

1. Did you win?
2. How did you play?
3. Who did you play?

I use SOS so teams like Gordon and Bethany don't charge way up the rankings.

BTW - Wooster's SOS is 37 and they're third. A big reason Carroll is down is that the Wolfe rankings don't like them that much, whilst Wolfe loves WPI.

[smedindy]

Oh, and it may be moot. This week Augie plays Wheaton (217) and Millikin (204) whilst Lawrence plays Carroll and Beloit (135), so Augie's SOS will slip this week.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I hate SOS, that's why I follow a sport with a real tournament, as flawed and faulty as it may be.