Top 25 talk

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I can tell you for sure.. they never made it into the poll. I didn't track those receiving votes... that would have made the project far more difficult.

[gordonmann]

Yeah, I made the same editorial decision in putting the women's archive together.

The number of teams that receive votes is massive and, in many cases, not very meaningful when it's single digit points.

[y_jack_lok]

I can tell you for sure.. they never made it into the poll. I didn't track those receiving votes... that would have made the project far more difficult.

Thanks. I guess I'm remembering talk on the boards about whether the Fontbonne team might get some votes.

[ronk]

Gordon,
  What does the *** mean in the women's chart?

[gordonmann]

That signals that a team was ranked No. 1 at some point in the season.  I didn't add that marker for men for no good reason.

[nescac1]

So, who is likely to start next season at number one?  I have to think it's a toss-up between Whitman and Augustana, both look absolutely loaded next season.  Lots of teams in contention for numbers three through five -- Williams, North Central, Whitewater, River-Falls, Marietta, Christopher Newport, Hanover, Ramapo all look intriguing as well -- but those two, on paper, seem to be head-and-shoulders above the field. 

[Smitty Oom]

So, who is likely to start next season at number one?  I have to think it's a toss-up between Whitman and Augustana, both look absolutely loaded next season.  Lots of teams in contention for numbers three through five -- Williams, North Central, Whitewater, River-Falls, Marietta, Christopher Newport, Hanover, Ramapo all look intriguing as well -- but those two, on paper, seem to be head-and-shoulders above the field.

I would bet that is going to be the Blues, they made it to Salem after an outstanding year (if I remember correctly, the final four loss to eventual champion Babson was their sole blemish) in the '16-'17 campaign. Augustana will probably be number 2 after narrowly losing the championship game and returning just about everybody for this season. They get "downgraded" to number two since they didn't have as dominating of a regular season as Whitman, even though they do have a tougher conference. I would put North Central at 3, although that one is probably more up for debate.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

As a voter... something spectacular is going to have to keep me from voting Whitman #1 in the preseason.

First off, Babson loses far too much to keep my #1 vote. I do know of voters who will continue to vote for the champ until they lose. I am not of that mentality and have no reason to keep Babson #1.

Secondly, Whitman returns EVERYONE from a team that didn't lose a single game in the season until the semi-finals when Babson stormed back to beat them and go on to win the championship. It is the very reason I voted Whitman #2 and Augustana #3 in my final poll (no one says you have to vote for the runner-up #2 in the poll if you have good reason). If I get information in the preseason that says Whitman has lose some key components for whatever reason from that team... THEN I will consider looking for another option. I will say Whitman will have to deal with a massive target on their back now. They snuck through at least half of last year before that target got big. It will be big starting October 15. That could cause them to have a tough year. However, they are also a stellar team who beat some damn good teams especially in the NCAA tournament last year.

As for Augustana... they are certainly good and made a nice run to the championship game, but I don't see a reason for them to surplant Whitman in anyway. There were a lot of questions about the Aggies last season. They will probably improve, but I think they may also be exposed. They certainly won't be able to get the the CCIW without getting beat up themselves. I think Augustana will be good next year, but I have no reasons right now to vote them #1 in the preseason.

[nescac1]

Yeah, Whitman does seem like a solid choice.  Agree that Babson barring a miraculous incoming class isn't even in consideration -- Flannery alone is SUCH a massive loss for them and they lose several other key guys as well from a very thin rotation. 

But, the argument for Augustana is that (1) they are a more balanced team in terms of positional talent and (2) they were a team heavily featuring a ton of guys who were new to the team (or at least their roles) that naturally took some time to come together last year.   I was really impressed by their three frosh who played in the Final Four, who have a very high upside and should be a lot better next year.  The two frosh big man, in particular Micah Martin, are going to grow a ton as players -- Martin is going to be a truly fearsome rim protector even next season and will emerge on offense over time.  Very, very talented.  Nolan Ebel seemed to really grow in confidence and impact in the NCAA tourney as well.   Lucas Simon will make a much bigger impact (just looks like a future star down the line) and Chrishawn Orange is already an all-American talent despite being an underclassman last year.  Williams also had no answer for Brett Benning who was also in his first year in the program and should be a much bigger factor; I see him as an upgrade over the lone graduating senior --himself a very good player -- who I presume he will replace in the lineup.  Of the CCIW teams I've seen, their overall size, speed and athletic talent really stood out, and those are things you can't teach.  All of those guys are just scratching the surface.  I just think Augustana has more guys with a lot more unrealized upside potential than Whitman. 

Whitman as good and as talented and experienced as they are does have one glaring weakness and that is on the interior ... Babson really exposed that with a 45-26 rebound advantage in the semifinal round, despite not really having a truly dominant big guy (they were of course very tough up front in the aggregate).  And Rochester also handily outrebounded them.  At least based on what they return, they lack much size and strength, but of course more than make up for it with speed, skill, and depth.  Still, that to me limits their upside just a tad.  I'd also say that Auggie's NCAA victories -- Williams, Hanover, Wartburg, Whitewater, and St. Thomas were five pretty tough wins in a row -- were significantly more impressive than Whitman's overall.  Not surprising since they went one round deeper and started as a lower seed.   I think you are right that they will have a worse record than Whitman but Whitman's conference is obviously a lot weaker, especially with its traditional top rival Whitworth looking very down on paper (four starters graduating).  Whitman just may not be very battle-tested heading into the tourney.

All that being said, for the reasons you've said I'd probably tag Whitman number one as well; hard to go against a team that returns everyone after that level of success.  But I do think it is a much closer call than you suggest and that there is an argument to be made for Augustana.   And still we have never seen a team from Whitman's conference even appear in a title game despite consistently getting high seeds and rankings, which shows that in some cases they may be paper tigers (not saying that was Whitman last year, but I'd like to see one of these teams get it done on the biggest stage just once). 

As for North Central, their record last year (and I know injuries played a role) seems pretty weak for a preseason number 3 team.  All of the candidates have big question marks.  I think Williams will probably get that spot, deservedly, based on its post-season run, although I'd rather actually see the Ephs start a bit lower to temper expectations ... as great as they played in the NCAA tourney, they weren't even a top-25 caliber team until, really, the NESCAC tournament last year, and they do lose their star to graduation.  So it's unclear just how good Williams will be to start the season (and honestly, like Augustana I see Williams as likely peaking in 2018-19).  Williams on the other hand benefits from a much weaker New England region this year.  Last year, New England was just absolutely loaded -- four elite 8 teams (note, the Ephs went 3-2 in games vs. those teams), two final four squads, and of course the national champion (whose only full-stregth loss came to yet another talented New England team).  This year I'd be stunned if there were any more than 2 elite 8 teams (if that) and one final four squad emerging from the region.  A HUGE number of talented guys (including of course the national POY) graduated from the region in 2017. 

[augie77]

Add Junior Pierson Wofford to the discussion on Augustana. Wofford was removed from last year's team by the college (not a coaching decision) in late January, so he wasn't part of the playoff run.  Circumstances of the dismissal were a bit hazy, but he is now listed on the 2017-2018 roster. Wofford was the team's number 2 rebounder and was averaging over 10 points per game at the time of his dismissal.  The return of the highly athletic Wofford will be a significant addition for this year's Viking roster.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

As Dave said, there would have to be major revelations for me not to vote Whitman #1.  They were the second best team I saw last year and the best team lost six guys.  Augustana has a lot of potential, but many of those guys are still pretty young - I'll want to see some marked improvement from the young guys down low and some more championship level ball-handlers before I'm ready to get on the Augustana train.  Obviously there's a long season of actual games, but for preseason, I'm definitely rewarding Whitman for the work they did last year (and bringing literally everyone back again).

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Add Junior Pierson Wofford to the discussion on Augustana. Wofford was removed from last year's team by the college (not a coaching decision) in late January, so he wasn't part of the playoff run.  Circumstances of the dismissal were a bit hazy, but he is now listed on the 2017-2018 roster. Wofford was the team's number 2 rebounder and was averaging over 10 points per game at the time of his dismissal.  The return of the highly athletic Wofford will be a significant addition for this year's Viking roster.

That's all and good... but I think this actually raises more questions than it answers... especially, how long until Wofford potentially gets into trouble again and is off the roster. I will take this news with a grain of sand and wait a bit before it peaks my interest.

[WUPHF]

That's all and good... but I think this actually raises more questions than it answers... especially, how long until Wofford potentially gets into trouble again and is off the roster. I will take this news with a grain of sand and wait a bit before it peaks my interest.

I do appreciate your skepticism, but this makes me think that I missed something.  Has Wofford been dismissed more than once?

Incidentally, I trust what everyone else has said, but when I looked to see if Augustana had the time listed for their visit to St. Louis, I also clicked on the roster tab and the list of players is from last season. 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

That's all and good... but I think this actually raises more questions than it answers... especially, how long until Wofford potentially gets into trouble again and is off the roster. I will take this news with a grain of sand and wait a bit before it peaks my interest.

I do appreciate your skepticism, but this makes me think that I missed something.  Has Wofford been dismissed more than once?

Incidentally, I trust what everyone else has said, but when I looked to see if Augustana had the time listed for their visit to St. Louis, I also clicked on the roster tab and the list of players is from last season.

There was at least one incident, though who was at fault and who wasn't seems a bit murky, that he was involved in... then suddenly he was released from school in the middle of the season. Too many questions, not enough answers to understand what has been happening.

And I did check out Augustana's roster myself... I see it is last season's and unlike some websites, I don't know the backdoor to their site to determine what this year's roster might (let's remember, it is mid August after all) look like. To that point, Wofford was not listed on the site as he was pulled from the roster last year. So... I am not sure where Auggie sees Wofford's name in the first place.

[AndOne]

But, the argument for Augustana is that (1) they are a more balanced team in terms of positional talent and (2) they were a team heavily featuring a ton of guys who were new to the team (or at least their roles) that naturally took some time to come together last year.   I was really impressed by their three frosh who played in the Final Four, who have a very high upside and should be a lot better next year.  The two frosh big man, in particular Micah Martin, are going to grow a ton as players -- Martin is going to be a truly fearsome rim protector even next season and will emerge on offense over time.  Very, very talented.  Nolan Ebel seemed to really grow in confidence and impact in the NCAA tourney as well.   Lucas Simon will make a much bigger impact (just looks like a future star down the line) and Chrishawn Orange is already an all-American talent despite being an underclassman last year.  Williams also had no answer for Brett Benning who was also in his first year in the program and should be a much bigger factor; I see him as an upgrade over the lone graduating senior --himself a very good player -- who I presume he will replace in the lineup.  Of the CCIW teams I've seen, their overall size, speed and athletic talent really stood out, and those are things you can't teach.  All of those guys are just scratching the surface.  I just think Augustana has more guys with a lot more unrealized upside potential than Whitman. 


As for North Central, their record last year (and I know injuries played a role) seems pretty weak for a preseason number 3 team.  All of the candidates have big question marks.  I think Williams will probably get that spot, deservedly, based on its post-season run, although I'd rather actually see the Ephs start a bit lower to temper expectations ... as great as they played in the NCAA tourney, they weren't even a top-25 caliber team until, really, the NESCAC tournament last year, and they do lose their star to graduation.  So it's unclear just how good Williams will be to start the season (and honestly, like Augustana I see Williams as likely peaking in 2018-19).  Williams on the other hand benefits from a much weaker New England region this year.  Last year, New England was just absolutely loaded -- four elite 8 teams (note, the Ephs went 3-2 in games vs. those teams), two final four squads, and of course the national champion (whose only full-stregth loss came to yet another talented New England team).  This year I'd be stunned if there were any more than 2 elite 8 teams (if that) and one final four squad emerging from the region.  A HUGE number of talented guys (including of course the national POY) graduated from the region in 2017.

A role? Make that a BIG role. Especially, considering the injury was to a pre-season All-American.

Also, exactly what relevance does last year's "pretty weak" record carry as far as how a team is expected to do this season? Especially when they will get the All-American back, and have added a D2 transfer who was ranked as the #41 player in Illinois two years ago, and another transfer who led his (D3) team and was 5th in the conference in scoring last season.

Lastly, keep in mind that last year's pretty weak record included a win over Augustana in the CCIW conference tournament, a win over a consistently strong Wooster team in the first round of the national tournament, and a one point loss to Elite Eight member Hanover (at Hanover) in the second round.   

Augustana is a great team. But remember, they had 9 losses last year. They got hot at the right time. I fully expect them to carry their excellence throughout this campaign. However, North Central ain't too bad either.