Top 25 talk

[SpringSt7]

The 25 is a big range. Might be interesting to break that down on 1-10 and 11-25.

A huge range. Maybe that will be tomorrow's task. Off the top of my head the only conference with two schools in the top 10 was the UAA.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

The 25 is a big range. Might be interesting to break that down on 1-10 and 11-25.

A huge range. Maybe that will be tomorrow's task. Off the top of my head the only conference with two schools in the top 10 was the UAA.

The Centennial had two in the Top Ten for much of the year, despite my best efforts.

[SpringSt7]

We were talking about the preseason Top 25 poll—in which Johns Hopkins actually didn't receive a single vote.

[nyhoopstalk]

Stevens bringing back their AA Cook for a 5th year along with their talented post and point guard. Another team to look out for in the East will be Nazareth. Returning a ton from a 20 win team and should be the favorite to win the E8 next year.

Centennial:

Swarthmore - they lose O'Dell and Shafer, but they bring back EVERYONE else and their bench is incredibly deep - they would run the second unit for large minutes in every game. I suspect they remain in the conversation for sure.

Johns Hopkins - they lose only Harry O'Neil and everyone else returns including Connor Delaney (who suffered an injury in the last game, but does not require surgery - as he did the previous season with a similar injury). They also probably grow stronger and while O'Neil is a huge loss inside, I suspect there are guys ready to step into that role and maybe even have two on the floor at the same time (to be determined). I always said Hopkins was a year ahead to some degree. I knew they would compete with Swat, but I expected them to be "Swat" next year.

There are also Ursinus, Muhlenberg, and Haverford. I think the Mules are the most likely to compete with the top group, but I am not sure they are ready for the Top 25 as of yet.

CAC:

CNU obviously is one you never forget, but YCP leaves the conference for the MAC Commonwealth. Hiding under them is Mary Washington who had a pretty decent season, though they lost more of their close games against good competition then they won. The conference is ... going to be different, but CNU and Mary Wash are the only two I think are in the Top 25 convo. Salisbury is still finding themselves.

MAC Commonwealth:

I'll add the MACC ... but there is a lot to figure out, I think. YCP enters and that certainly raises the national profile, but they also have Eastern enter from the Freedom (while Arcadia and Lyco leave for the Freedom and several other conferences in DIII get angry again). I think that shakes things up, but I'm not sure how it shakes out. Worth watching, but it will take some time. One thing will be for sure, the MAC Commonwealth will continue to be one of the more competitive conferences top to bottom and the Freedom gains a bit of strength it has been badly missing.

MAC Freedom:

Eastern leaves, but Arcadia and Lyco enter. This gives the Freedom some more competition. Stevens is the only one in the Top 25 convo right now and I'm not sure this conference will immediately become one to watch ... but in time they will.

Swarthmore loses their two bigs, I haven't looked at their roster too indepth, but do they have bigs to replace them?

Stevens loses a ton. Really only returns two of their top 8. Lycoming moving over from the MACC returns 6 of their top 7. Not to say they are Top 25 worthy, but they could be the favorite. I just look at rosters, remember!

[Greek Tragedy]

I realize he was hurt last year, giving him a 5th year (had I remembered, I may have drafted him in our fantasy league). Is he coming back for sure? I mean, some kids actually graduate in 4 years. College is expensive, all because he has an extra year of eligibility doesn't mean he's coming back to play. Just curious.

[Titan Q]

Rochester removed as further UAA analysis continues.

Now up to 21 teams for the 2020-21 Preseason Top 25.

(alphabetical order)

* Albion (21-5, 12-2)
* Amherst (18-8, 7-3)
* Brockport (26-3, 17-1)
* Elmhurst (25-5, 11-3)
* Emory (22-5, 11-3)
* Hobart (23-5, 15-3)
* Illinois Wesleyan (19-9, 11-5)
* Johns Hopkins (24-4, 16-2)
* Marietta (21-7, 14-4)
* Middlebury (21-6, 6-4)
* Randolph-Macon (28-2, 15-1)
* RPI (24-5, 17-1)
* St. Joseph CT (26-3, 11-0)
* St. Thomas (26-3, 19-1)
* Swarthmore (28-1, 18-0)
* Tufts (23-6, 8-2)
* UW-Platteville (23-5, 12-2)
* Wabash (17-9, 3-5)
* Wash U (22-5, 11-3)
* WPI (20-8, 10-3)
* Yeshiva (29-1, 16-0)

--------
Other candidates...

Brandeis
PSU-Harrisburg
Rochester
St. John's
Susquehanna
Texas-Dallas
UW-La Crosse
UW-Oshkosh
Virginia Wesleyan
Wheaton (IL)

Who else?

Who will be the favorite in the NWC?

---------
Please keep the ideas coming.

Regarding Rochester vs Brandeis, had a D3 head coach who knows the UAA well tell me yesterday: "If Colin Sawyer is back, Brandeis."

So I'm going with Brandeis for now.

(alphabetical order)

* Albion (21-5, 12-2)
* Amherst (18-8, 7-3)
* Brandeis (17-8, 9-5)
* Brockport (26-3, 17-1)
* Elmhurst (25-5, 11-3)
* Emory (22-5, 11-3)
* Hobart (23-5, 15-3)
* Illinois Wesleyan (19-9, 11-5)
* Johns Hopkins (24-4, 16-2)
* Marietta (21-7, 14-4)
* Middlebury (21-6, 6-4)
* Randolph-Macon (28-2, 15-1)
* RPI (24-5, 17-1)
* St. Joseph CT (26-3, 11-0)
* St. Thomas (26-3, 19-1)
* Swarthmore (28-1, 18-0)
* Tufts (23-6, 8-2)
* UW-Platteville (23-5, 12-2)
* Wabash (17-9, 3-5)
* Wash U (22-5, 11-3)
* WPI (20-8, 10-3)
* Yeshiva (29-1, 16-0)

--------
Other candidates...

PSU-Harrisburg
Rochester
St. John's
Susquehanna
Texas-Dallas
UW-La Crosse
UW-Oshkosh
Virginia Wesleyan
Wheaton (IL)

Who else?

[WUPHF]

Regarding Rochester vs Brandeis, had a D3 head coach who knows the UAA well tell me yesterday: "If Colin Sawyer is back, Brandeis."

I have no credentials other than a d3boards login and password (and it is not always clear I deserve those), but I am not sure Brandeis is a given.  I brought them up with the idea that the first and second year players develop significantly next season.

This 2019-2020 team was mostly fueled by the players who had led the 2018-2019 team to the ECAC championship.  The 2020-2021 team has potential, but they will need a few players to develop.

They do have a few interesting possibilities.  Darret Justice started the first four games as a freshman, before settling in to a much more limited role off the bench.  Does he figure things out?  Dylan Lien should be a starter next season as a sophomore.  Nolan Hagerty had a good sophomore campaign and is definitely a player to watch.

[Titan Q]

So now, trying to bucket these teams in Top 25 placement tiers...

(teams are in alphabetical order within tiers)

Tier 1 - The sure things in the preseason; poised to make a deep NCAA run; very few questions; Top 10 candidates.
* Albion (21-5, 12-2)
* Elmhurst (25-5, 11-3)
* Emory (22-5, 11-3)
* Illinois Wesleyan (19-9, 11-5)
* Johns Hopkins (24-4, 16-2)
* Middlebury (21-6, 6-4)
* Randolph-Macon (28-2, 15-1)
* St. Joseph CT (26-3, 11-0)
* St. Thomas (26-3, 19-1)
* Tufts (23-6, 8-2)
* UW-Platteville (23-5, 12-2)
* Yeshiva (29-1, 16-0)


Tier 2 - Safe preseason Top 25 teams; enough question though to not be Tier 1.
* Amherst (18-8, 7-3)
* Brockport (26-3, 17-1)
* Hobart (23-5, 15-3)
* Marietta (21-7, 14-4)
* RPI (24-5, 17-1)
* Swarthmore (28-1, 18-0)
* Wash U (22-5, 11-3)
* WPI (20-8, 10-3)


Tier 3 - The best bets after Tiers 1 and 2; but a lot of questions to be answered.
(pick 5)

* Brandeis (17-8, 9-5)
* PSU-Harrisburg (21-8, 14-2)
* Rochester (16-9, 7-7)
* St. John's (27-2, 19-1)
* Stevens (23-5, 12-2)
* Susquehanna (21-8, 11-3)
* Texas-Dallas (22-7, 14-2)
* UW-La Crosse (21-6, 9-5)
* UW-Oshkosh (20-9, 11-3)
* Virginia Wesleyan (23-5, 13-3)
* Wabash (17-9, 3-5)
* Wheaton IL (15-11, 9-7)



All opinions and ideas are encouraged.

[Greek Tragedy]

I really think St. John's will be ranked in the high teens, 18th? You have St. Thomas ranked in the Top 10 after they lose Hannah and Anderson. Hannah didn't start, but had starter numbers and was #2 in a balanced scoring attack. They also lose another senior with minimal impact. St. John's loses Alade and Walford, arguably better players to lose than St. Thomas, but still return 3 of their top 5 scorers. I don't think you can rank St. Thomas in the Top 10 and not rank St. John's at all. There'll be a gap, but the Johnnies aren't going down without a fight. Obviously, just my opinion. 

[Titan Q]

I really think St. John's will be ranked in the high teens, 18th? You have St. Thomas ranked in the Top 10 after they lose Hannah and Anderson. Hannah didn't start, but had starter numbers and was #2 in a balanced scoring attack. They also lose another senior with minimal impact. St. John's loses Alade and Walford, arguably better players to lose than St. Thomas, but still return 3 of their top 5 scorers. I don't think you can rank St. Thomas in the Top 10 and not rank St. John's at all. There'll be a gap, but the Johnnies aren't going down without a fight. Obviously, just my opinion. 

I don't have anyone ranked in the top 10.  I identified "top 10 candidates."  One of those teams would be #1...another would be #12.

I could have St. Thomas in the wrong tier.

I didn't not rank St. John's.  They are in the group of teams in Tier 3.

[nyhoopstalk]

I realize he was hurt last year, giving him a 5th year (had I remembered, I may have drafted him in our fantasy league). Is he coming back for sure? I mean, some kids actually graduate in 4 years. College is expensive, all because he has an extra year of eligibility doesn't mean he's coming back to play. Just curious.

I am fairly certain I heard on one of their webcasts that he was intending on coming back. It makes Stevens a certain top 25 contender if he is back.

[jamtod]

I really think St. John's will be ranked in the high teens, 18th? You have St. Thomas ranked in the Top 10 after they lose Hannah and Anderson. Hannah didn't start, but had starter numbers and was #2 in a balanced scoring attack. They also lose another senior with minimal impact. St. John's loses Alade and Walford, arguably better players to lose than St. Thomas, but still return 3 of their top 5 scorers. I don't think you can rank St. Thomas in the Top 10 and not rank St. John's at all. There'll be a gap, but the Johnnies aren't going down without a fight. Obviously, just my opinion. 

I don't have anyone ranked in the top 10.  I identified "top 10 candidates."  One of those teams would be #1...another would be #12.

I could have St. Thomas in the wrong tier.

I didn't not rank St. John's.  They are in the group of teams in Tier 3.

If St Thomas belonged in Tier 1 this year, I see no reason to believe they should fall next year. Anderson and Hannah both had their moments, but the Tommies played major minutes of some pivotal games with both of them on the bench. Anderson dealt with some injuries and foul trouble (and also Coach Tauer's willingness to play small ball). Hannah made an impact at times but was also quite erratic. Neither played true starters minutes or made the impact that Alade and Walford did for SJU, who also graduates Ryan and Sorenson, a couple of key reserves who played similar minutes to UST's departing seniors.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

You've also got a LONG track record of UST having their unsung players ready to step up when called upon.  Even this year, without a lot of size, they performed well above expectations.  I think Tauer and the Tommies have earned the benefit of the doubt, especially with so many contributors returning.  They can fill holes pretty consistently.

[Smitty Oom]

You've also got a LONG track record of UST having their unsung players ready to step up when called upon.  Even this year, without a lot of size, they performed well above expectations.  I think Tauer and the Tommies have earned the benefit of the doubt, especially with so many contributors returning.  They can fill holes pretty consistently.

I think we are missing the point of Greek's post. This is not about UST (we can all agree they belong in tier 1) as much as it is about SJU. Looking at the rest of the top teams in the nation, I do think SJU has a very valid argument for being in the back end of the top 25. They return enough good players and have been a great program for the last handful of years for the proactive voters + a great record/high rating last year for those voters that let recency bias effect some of their ranks. Tier 3 is probably right but I would not disagree with anyone who is wanting to put them in the tier 2 bucket as of right now. The past 3 years they have been a consistent top 25 team and have had key losses to graduation each year. So my point being, as of lately just like UST, SJU has been able to get a lot out of players when asked to increase their workload. I would be shocked to see them drop out of the top 2 in the MIAC this upcoming season, especially with the other top tier Usual Suspects like Verbal Kint Bethel and Augsburg losing so much production.

[jamtod]

You've also got a LONG track record of UST having their unsung players ready to step up when called upon.  Even this year, without a lot of size, they performed well above expectations.  I think Tauer and the Tommies have earned the benefit of the doubt, especially with so many contributors returning.  They can fill holes pretty consistently.

I think we are missing the point of Greek's post. This is not about UST (we can all agree they belong in tier 1) as much as it is about SJU. Looking at the rest of the top teams in the nation, I do think SJU has a very valid argument for being in the back end of the top 25. They return enough good players and have been a great program for the last handful of years for the proactive voters + a great record/high rating last year for those voters that let recency bias effect some of their ranks. Tier 3 is probably right but I would not disagree with anyone who is wanting to put them in the tier 2 bucket as of right now. The past 3 years they have been a consistent top 25 team and have had key losses to graduation each year. So my point being, as of lately just like UST, SJU has been able to get a lot out of players when asked to increase their workload. I would be shocked to see them drop out of the top 2 in the MIAC this upcoming season, especially with the other top tier Usual Suspects like Verbal Kint Bethel and Augsburg losing so much production.

My response was to Titan Q, observing that maybe he has UST in the wrong tier. That's what Ryan and I addressed.
I agree with you that SJU belongs somewhere in this conversation. I don't think it's totally unreasonable to note that SJU is losing a lot (especially compared to UST) and it's possible they take a sizable step back next year, although as you note, they have been able to reload nicely.