Top 25 talk

[PoppersMacsLive]

Alright, assuming that all info regarding returning players which has been posted on the boards is correct, here is my Preseason Top 20 (21-25 TBD):

1 Randolph-Macon
2 Yeshiva
3 Illinois Wesleyan
4 Emory
5 Johns Hopkins
6 Trine
7 Tufts
8 Marietta
9 WashU
10 Saint Joseph (CT)
11 UW-Platteville
12 Swarthmore
13 Penn State-Harrisburg
14 Mary Hardin-Baylor
15 UW-Oshkosh
16 Wheaton (IL)
17 Brandeis
18 UW-La Crosse
19 WPI
20 Elmhurst

Obviously if rosters which haven't come out yet conflict information posted on the boards, or if injuries pop up, this order would potentially change.

Well aware that I'm significantly lower on some teams here than the consensus, and higher on others. Posting this already to hopefully spark some discussion on those teams.

[Titan Q]

Got confirmation today Elmhurst returns all seniors who played last year:

* Jake Rhode (All American), Jay Millitello, Dominic Genco, Lavon Thomas, Ebrahim Jobe

They also return all key JR, SO, and FR.

This is almost all of the nucleus that went to the Sweet 16 in '20 before the shutdown (with a home game vs Pomona-Pitzer to get to the Elite 8).

With Illinois Wesleyan, Wheaton, and Elmhurst probably leading the way, the CCIW is loaded.

[Titan Q]

One of the things that helps in assembling a preseason Top 25 ballot is trying to understand the preseason order within each league.

I took a shot at the preseason top 3 in what I consider to be the best 7 leagues in D3 MBB.  Let me know if I'm off anywhere here...and please add other leagues and your thoughts on top 3 within those.

WIAC
1. Platteville
2. Oshkosh
3. La Crosse

CCIW
1. IWU
2. Wheaton
3. Elmhurst

NESCAC
1. Tufts
2. Amherst
3. Williams

UAA
1. Emory
2. WashU
3. Brandeis

OAC
1. Marietta
2. Heidelberg
3. ONU

ARC
1. Dubuque
2. NWU
3. Buena Vista/Loras/Coe?

NCAC
1. Wabash
2. Wooster
3. Wittenberg

[nescac1]

I think THIS year (though not always) Centennial is a top tier league because they have three great teams: Swarthmore, Hopkins, Muehlenberg. 

Also no ODAC? 

Your ranking in Nescac (insofar as anyone has any clue this year) looks fair ....

[Titan Q]

I think THIS year (though not always) Centennial is a top tier league because they have three great teams: Swarthmore, Hopkins, Muehlenberg. 

Also no ODAC? 

Your ranking in Nescac (insofar as anyone has any clue this year) looks fair ....

I personally have the 7 leagues I have above ahead of the Centennial and ODAC.

But #7 is close.  I have the NCAC as #7 - I think it's deeper than the two you mention.  But it's close.

I feel more confident in the first 6 leagues I listed.

[Greek Tragedy]

It sounds like the NESCAC could be WAY down. Amherst and Williams are a very distant 2nd and 3rd behind Tufts. At least that's what I'm thinking after reading some posts.

[nescac1]

Nescac is definitely way down in terms of veteran talent.  There are a fair number of good Nescac players in grad programs elsewhere (or in one case playing on a Big Ten team) which is not great for the league.  Only 2 of the top 10, and 9 of the top 25, scorers from 2019-2020 are still around.  On the other hand, there are a lot of VERY strong recruits from the past few years that we've never seen, or barely seen, play - in particular at Williams, Amherst, Conn, Trinity, Wesleyan and Colby.  So I'd expect that a few teams from that group will end up being very strong, featuring many guys who are entirely unknown quantities.  It's just hard to say which right now ... but I'd still bet that Nescac has its typical 2-3 sweet 16 teams when all is said and done. 

[SpringSt7]

I don't really feel a huge gap between Tufts and Amherst, or at least not the gap that some do. Like I mentioned earlier with Yeshiva, I think Tufts is overinflated due to the season ending in the Sweet 16 when they would've had a pretty uphill battle against SUNY Brockport. They won the NESCAC in 2020 which was a really weak year in the conference and should've lost to Colby without their best player, if not for a miracle heave by Eric Savage who I believe was better than Luke Rogers. Savage's graduation is a huge loss that is being overlooked and Rogers is being overhyped. If you dig into the archives of the NESCAC board in March 2020 most were arguing that Rogers should've been a 2nd team all-league player, no one was arguing for POY.

Amherst on the other hand will have arguably the two best guards in the league in Garrett Day and Grant Robinson and no one would be surprised if come March 2022 they were considered the best backcourt in the court. Both have been that good they just haven't been that good at the same time yet. No Dave Hixon is a huge wildcard but I was surprised to see no one named them in a potential preseason Top 25.

[nescac1]

I usually agree with SpringSt7 on most things Nescac, but I'm way higher on Tufts, Luke Rogers (who I think is an absolute monster in the paint and who improves a lot each year), and the replacements for Savage (Thoerner and McLaren, both very talented players), and way lower on Day (a spectacular three point shooter for one season who hadn't done that much else to impress in my view, a very good player but not in Rogers' class) and the replacements for Amherst's entire starting front court, which is mostly a mystery.  And I think Tufts has a coaching upgrade from the previous season, whereas at Amherst it's much more of a question mark. 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I tend to go with what we've seen on the floor, especially when there's been such a layoff like the COVID break so many schools have experienced.  Amherst wasn't playing up to par in 2019-20 - so even with a talent-filled lineup, I want to see them perform before I just give them credit for being Amherst.  Tufts overplayed their talent in 2019-20, but at least they've shown it on the floor, with a lot, if not all, the major players coming back.  I'm definitely going to give benefit of the doubt to performance over paper.  It's the teams led by players we haven't seen much of that will truly be the surprises (one way or another) this season.

[SpringSt7]

Luke Rogers: 16.2/11.9/2.4 blocks per game on 56% shooting.

Eric Savage: 15.8/6.9/3.4 assists per game on 49/34/71 splits. Won them the NESCAC championship with 27/12/6 and a 35 foot bomb to force OT against a not great Colby team at the time. Rogers was 0-4 from the field with 1 point in the second half against a team with no center.

How do they graduate none of their major players?

[Next Man Up]

Luke Rogers: 16.2/11.9/2.4 blocks per game on 56% shooting.

Eric Savage: 15.8/6.9/3.4 assists per game on 49/34/71 splits. Won them the NESCAC championship with 27/12/6 and a 35 foot bomb to force OT against a not great Colby team at the time. Rogers was 0-4 from the field with 1 point in the second half against a team with no center.

How do they graduate none of their major players?

There are several ways, especially when your institution offers graduate level programs, and you factor in an extra year for everyone due to the lost '20-'21 Coronavirus year. This season we'll see players on the six year plan.

[SpringSt7]

Eric Savage was a senior in 2020, he has no extra COVID year. He played 4 years and graduated in 2020.

[Next Man Up]

One of the things that helps in assembling a preseason Top 25 ballot is trying to understand the preseason order within each league.

I took a shot at the preseason top 3 in what I consider to be the best 7 leagues in D3 MBB.  Let me know if I'm off anywhere here...and please add other leagues and your thoughts on top 3 within those.

WIAC
1. Platteville
2. Oshkosh
3. La Crosse

CCIW
1. IWU
2. Wheaton
3. Elmhurst

ARC
1. Dubuque
2. NWU
3. Buena Vista/Loras/Coe?

JMHO..........

In the WIAC, I don't think it would be surprising to see Oshkosh take the top spot. They have a returning All-American, plus several other experienced players.

In the ARC, it seems like a real crapshoot behind DU. NWU had a limited and unimpressive 2020-2021.

In the CCIW, I believe that behind the 2022 National Champions, Elmhurst rates a little higher than Wheaton primarily due to 1) being an overall stronger and more physically imposing squad, and 2) depth/having more better players beyond the starters. 

[Colby Hoops]

I'm with SpringSt7, think Amherst is a pretty clear #2 in the Nescac and think they can be very good if Grant Robinson returns to form. Not as sold on Williams as #3 in the conference -- certainly a lot of talent, but they were 13-12 and lost their best player. Either way, I don't see any Nescac teams beyond Tufts being preseason top 25 threats, although I wouldn't argue with Amherst as a back end top 25 team.

Also, might take a little issue with comments of Nescac being way down last season. I think Amherst and Williams not being good tinted that. Certainly not an elite year for the league, but I think a healthy Colby team was a very legitimate top 10 team -- obviously having Jefferson miss a month and then barely able to walk for the rest of the season led to a much lesser team (and, as a result, league) by tournament time.