Top 25 talk

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While we are waiting for the official release of the preseason Top 25 poll, some voters have begun making their ballots public. I am aggregating them to get a view of how the Top 25 may be taking shape. Got this kicked off with three known ballots and will keep updating it as more are revealed: https://d3datacast.com/2023/10/23/unofficial-2023-24-preseason-top-25-poll-tracker/

Are those their FINAL preseason ballots?

Yes, the screenshots being posted on social media are directly from the voting interface (further, I believe that is the confirmation page after clicking submit)

[Greek Tragedy]

Thanks. We appreciate you doing this. Good to have it all centralized.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Thanks for doing that, Zac!

(I gotta wonder why Ryan Scott mentioned North Park in the surefire-Top-Ten segment of Bob Quillman's most recent Q-cast, and then completely left NPU off of his preseason ballot.)

I become convinced by the argument that their losses were significant enough to let them play their way on.  The same happened, for me at least, with Swarthmore.

[Gregory Sager]

Fair enough.

[Stretch4]

Thanks for doing that, Zac!

(I gotta wonder why Ryan Scott mentioned North Park in the surefire-Top-Ten segment of Bob Quillman's most recent Q-cast, and then completely left NPU off of his preseason ballot.)

I become convinced by the argument that their losses were significant enough to let them play their way on.  The same happened, for me at least, with Swarthmore.

That same logic could be applied to Randolph Macon in terms of significant losses, but they will deservedly get the benefit of the doubt. Swat will get their opportunity on the first weekend when they face Washington U and NYU.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Thanks for doing that, Zac!

(I gotta wonder why Ryan Scott mentioned North Park in the surefire-Top-Ten segment of Bob Quillman's most recent Q-cast, and then completely left NPU off of his preseason ballot.)

I become convinced by the argument that their losses were significant enough to let them play their way on.  The same happened, for me at least, with Swarthmore.

That same logic could be applied to Randolph Macon in terms of significant losses, but they will deservedly get the benefit of the doubt. Swat will get their opportunity on the first weekend when they face Washington U and NYU.

You're right.  I voted RMC 23rd and I shouldn't have.  Not sure how that slipped through.

[nescac1]

I think RMC's losses are more significant than Swarthmore's (although both have in common consistently great programs led by elite coaches who maximize every inch of the talent on hand).  RMC graduates by far its two best players including a multi-year all-American who was an elite two-way force, and doesn't return anyone who is a clear go-to guy offensively.  In total, RMC graduates 32/72 ppg.  They will defend the heck out of it as always but the offense could be pretty choppy barring some amazing recruits who are ready right away.  And also, ODAG looks flat loaded this year, with HSC a top-ten caliber team and Guilford and VWC both bringing back a ton and poised to improve.  I'd also note that RMC was 5-0 in games decided by 3 points or fewer last year and that sort of remarkable clutch performance will be hard to replicate without two battle-tested all-American caliber guys leading the offense. 

While Swarthmore loses some key guys as well, in particular Visconti, they at least have an all-American they can rely upon as their centerpiece in DeAngelo and a second proven top-tier player to hold down the interior in Caprise.  And they also seem to find a way to develop guards in that system who can shoot the lights out no matter who they lose.  Colin Shaw is a great example as a guy who suddenly erupted as a lights-out shooter as a senior.  Between Hanson, Paquette and Mulvey, or maybe a first-year or two, they will find guards who can shoot the ball.  If Godfrey can step up into a bigger role as the second big guy they should be very tough once again. 

Based on the pre-season ballots I've seen the two teams I think folks seem to be sleeping on too much are Nichols and Rowan.  Both went pretty deep in the tourney last year, bring back some real star power, and added absolutely loaded recruiting classes including (for both) a pair of what could be big-time scholarship-level transfers.  Each may take some time to gel with a lot of new faces but in terms of talent, they will be right there with the top ten teams. 

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Based on the pre-season ballots I've seen the two teams I think folks seem to be sleeping on too much are Nichols and Rowan.  Both went pretty deep in the tourney last year, bring back some real star power, and added absolutely loaded recruiting classes including (for both) a pair of what could be big-time scholarship-level transfers.  Each may take some time to gel with a lot of new faces but in terms of talent, they will be right there with the top ten teams.

I agree here. Nichols has not been named on any publicly released ballots and that total is up to six.
Rowan is a really interesting case. They are just outside the Top 25 based on the known ballots. They only have votes from two voters but both of those voters didn't really see them as a fringe team on their ballot - one at 19 and one at 15.

https://d3datacast.com/2023/10/23/unofficial-2023-24-preseason-top-25-poll-tracker/

[Gregory Sager]

Based on the pre-season ballots I've seen the two teams I think folks seem to be sleeping on too much are Nichols and Rowan.  Both went pretty deep in the tourney last year, bring back some real star power, and added absolutely loaded recruiting classes including (for both) a pair of what could be big-time scholarship-level transfers.  Each may take some time to gel with a lot of new faces but in terms of talent, they will be right there with the top ten teams.

That situation describes North Park perfectly as well -- the some-folks-are-sleeping-on-them-too-much matter, the they-got-deep-into-last-season's-tourney thing, the returning star power, and the loaded recruiting class that includes more than one guy who should be playing D1 or D2 ball. But, as I told Ryan, I'm fine with NPU being stuck on the outside looking in with regard to some voters' preseason ballots. Let the Vikings convince their skeptics in the best way possible -- on the court rather than through social-media arguments.

[stlawus]

Just because some people aren't voting for North Park in the top 25 doesn't mean people are "sleeping on them".  Pretty much everyone thinks they are preseason CCIW favorites and they will likely be ranked to start the season. 

[Greek Tragedy]

No one is sleeping on NPU. After their success last year, their coach getting National Coach of the Year and all the hype with transfers and incoming players, they're in the spotlight already. Polls and social media are for fun. If you take it more seriously than that, you're in the wrong business! LOL Good luck to everyone, ranked or not. Looking forward to the upcoming season...when aren't we??

[Gregory Sager]

Just because some people aren't voting for North Park in the top 25 doesn't mean people are "sleeping on them".  Pretty much everyone thinks they are preseason CCIW favorites

Not true. Check this out -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4qVBlxbLiLI -- the "Who do you pick to win the CCIW?" discussion starts at the 20:00 mark.

and they will likely be ranked to start the season.

Are you following Zac Snyder's poll tracker? North Park is barely hanging on to #25 at the moment. The Vikings are two points away from being out.

The working premise of a power conference, in the minds of just about everybody who's ever been part of the discussion, is that its' top team is represented in the top 25, usually joined by other teams from that league. The CCIW is regarded by everyone who follows D3 men's basketball as a power conference. North Park is the #1 pick in the CCIW preseason coaches poll (albeit by the slimmest of margins), and so it stands to reason that NPU would be on, if not all 24 ballots, at least the great majority of them. But NPU is only on five of the nine ballots that have either been tweeted by the "sunshine voters", as I call them (Tim Calderwood, Pat Coleman, Dave McHugh, Akiva Poppers, Bob Quillman, Mike Rejniak, Ryan Scott, Matt Snyder, and Ryan Whitnable), or by the two anonymous voters who privately sent them to Zac.

Unless there's a considerable swing ahead in the voting trend, I'm going to stand by what I said about the Vikings being slept on.

No one is sleeping on NPU. After their success last year, their coach getting National Coach of the Year and all the hype with transfers and incoming players, they're in the spotlight already.

"in the spotlight" =/= not being slept on

Polls and social media are for fun. If you take it more seriously than that, you're in the wrong business!

I guarantee that I don't take it all that seriously. You know me ... I like to feed discussion. And this is the time of year when there should be a lot of discussion. The first tipoff is right around the corner!

Besides, as I've already said, I'm perfectly fine with the idea of North Park not getting ranked in the preseason poll. In some ways, I think it helps the cause of the Vikings.

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If I may add a different spin to the NPU/CCIW discussion... I find it interesting the coaches poll shows very little separation 1-4, whereas there are much more distinct tiers showing up in top 25 voting.

It seems through the ballots we know about that Carthage is being treated as the nominal favorite with North Park the other contender. Elmhurst and Illinois Wesleyan have both made at least one ballot each but are well back of the other two in known voting so far and neither appears to have a realistic chance at a preseason Top 25 ranking.

Coaches poll: North Park/Carthage/Elmhurst/Illinois Wesleyan ::shrug emoji::
Top 25 voting: Carthage -> North Park -> Elmhurst/Illinois Wesleyan

Also worth pointing out what we're seeing with the ASC teams. The coaches voted ETBU their preseason number one but UMHB is getting preference from Top 25 voters. The ETBU/UMHB dynamic looks very similar to the NPU/Carthage dynamic.

[Gregory Sager]

That's a good point about the variation in tiers between conference polls and the D3hoops.com preseason balloting.

One correction, and I assume that it's just an oversight on your part unconsciously caused by yesterday's Twitter commotion that sprang from a D3 Region V fan's suggestion that Wheaton should be a preseason contender from the CCIW based upon Massey's (totally flawed) preseason ratings: You typed "Wheaton" in your second paragraph where I think you intended to type "Illinois Wesleyan".

[Gregory Sager]

Also, while I'm certain that both Carthage and Elmhurst are eminently capable of winning the CCIW this season and are both Top 25 worthy, if you put a gun to my head and told me that I had to pick one to finish better than the other, I'd pick Elmhurst. I think that the 'jays are ever-so-slightly better than the Firebirds ... but it's a difference that's well within the margin of error, to couch it in electoral-polling terms.