Top 25 talk

[David Collinge]

Top 25 Scores and Schedules, Jan. 15-21 (UPDATED with Tuesday scores excl. West Coast):

#1 UW-Stevens Point (14-1) plays at UW-Platteville Wed. and hosts UW-River Falls Sat.
#2 Amherst (15-0) def. Elms 103-69, hosts Middlebury Fri., and hosts Williams Sat.
#3 St. Thomas (13-1) plays at St. John's Wed. and plays at St. Mary's (MN) Sat.
#4 Wooster (13-2) plays at Hiram Wed. and plays at Ohio Wesleyan Sat.
#5 Virginia Wesleyan (12-2) plays at Eastern Mennonite Wed. and hosts Randolph-Macon Sat.
#6 Wittenberg (13-2) plays at Ohio Wesleyan Wed. and hosts Allegheny Sat.
#7 Mississippi College (14-1) won at Louisiana College 63-43 and plays at U. of the Ozarks Sat.
#8 Ohio Northern (12-3) hosts Otterbein Wed. and plays at Marietta Sat.
#9 Elmhurst (13-1) plays at North Park Wed. and plays at Wheaton (IL) Sat.
#10 Whitworth (14-1) hosts Whitman Tue. and plays at Willamette Fri.
#11 Hope (12-2) plays at Adrian Wed. and hosts Alma Sat.
#12 UW-Oshkosh (13-3) hosts UW-Whitewater Wed. and plays at UW-Superior Sat.
#13 Washington U. (12-1) hosts Rochester Fri. and hosts Carnegie Mellon Sun.
#14 Puget Sound (12-2) hosts Lewis and Clark Fri. and hosts Linfield Sat.
#15 Augustana (12-3) plays at Millikin Wed. and plays at North Central Sat.
#16 UW-La Crosse (11-4) plays at UW-River Falls Wed. and plays at UW-Eau Claire Sat.
#17 Occidental (9-3) plays at Pomona-Pitzer Wed. and plays at Cal Lutheran Sat.
#18 Worcester Polytech (12-1) plays at MIT Wed. and hosts Springfield Sat.
#19 Aurora (13-1) won at Concordia (IL) 77-71, plays at Concordia (WI) Thu., and hosts Rockford Sat.
#20 Guilford (11-1) plays at Roanoke Wed., hosts Bridgewater (VA) Sat., and hosts Eastern Mennonite Sun.
#21 Bates (12-2) won at St. Joseph's (ME) 89-80, hosts Husson Thu., and hosts Tufts Sat.
#22 Rhode Island College (14-1) def. Western Connecticut 85-61 and plays at #24 Keene St. Sat.
#23 Carthage (9-5) plays at North Central Wed. and hosts Millikin Sat.
#24 Keene St. (13-21) lost to Eastern Connecticut 73-71 and hosts #22 Rhode Island College Sat.
#25 Johns Hopkins (13-2) plays at Franklin and Marshall Wed. and plays at Dickinson Sat.

[Pat Coleman]

Hmm ... a self-fulfilling prophecy in the poll, then. Not very odd to me, Hoops Fan.

[Ralph Turner]

Q,

Point taken (and agreed).

But I still wonder if it is unprecedented for a team NEVER higher than 17th to fall only to 23rd after 3 straight losses?  I'm betting it is.

Teams in the top 5 (or 10) get some benefit of the doubt; teams in the bottom 5 (or 10) are usually gone after even two losses, much less three.

I don't know if it has happened before or not.  Keep in mind though, by this time of year most voters look at things one week at a time.  Carthage was dropped in the poll for the loss @ IWU.  That game was filed away and done with.  On the ballot submitted this Monday the voters looked at the results from last week only (the games vs Elmhurst and @Augustana), and dropped Carthage from #18 to #23. 

+1,  Great analysis!

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Hmm ... a self-fulfilling prophecy in the poll, then. Not very odd to me, Hoops Fan.

Eh, everytime I get my hopes up about the LEC they cannibalize themselves during conference play.  This means Keene will win on Saturday and they'll both be out.  It's just how these things work.

[PrideSportBBallGuy]

My top 25 "ranking" games are through Monday.  Not too bad, I have 15 of d3hoops top 25 represented, some close or in actual spot of the d3hoops one.  This is based on statistics alone. 

1   Amherst
2   UW-Stevens Point
3   Lincoln
4   Wooster
5   Whitworth
6   Virginia Wesleyan
7   Mississippi College
8   Keene St
9   Scranton
10   Elmhurst
11   Middlebury
12   Washington U.
13   Hope
14   Puget Sound
15   Wittenberg
16   St. Thomas
17   William Patterson
18   Maryville(TN)
19   Trinity(Conn)
20   Lake Erie
21   Worchester Polytech
22   Messiah
23   Utica
24   Rhode Island College
25   Centre

Thanks to pabegg for his "regional ranking" post in pool C.

[Ralph Turner]

My top 25 "ranking" games are through Monday.  Not too bad, I have 15 of d3hoops top 25 represented, some close or in actual spot of the d3hoops one.  This is based on statistics alone. 

1   Amherst
2   UW-Stevens Point
3   Lincoln
4   Wooster
5   Whitworth
6   Virginia Wesleyan
7   Mississippi College
8   Keene St
9   Scranton
10   Elmhurst
11   Middlebury
12   Washington U.
13   Hope
14   Puget Sound
15   Wittenberg
16   St. Thomas
17   William Patterson
18   Maryville(TN)
19   Trinity(Conn)
20   Lake Erie
21   Worchester Polytech
22   Messiah
23   Utica
24   Rhode Island College
25   Centre

Thanks to pabegg for his "regional ranking" post in pool C.

Pride, Lincoln is interesting.  How much is OSU-Marion contributing to their total?  How much are the D2's that played they contributing?

[PrideSportBBallGuy]

My top 25 "ranking" games are through Monday.  Not too bad, I have 15 of d3hoops top 25 represented, some close or in actual spot of the d3hoops one.  This is based on statistics alone. 

1   Amherst
2   UW-Stevens Point
3   Lincoln
4   Wooster
5   Whitworth
6   Virginia Wesleyan
7   Mississippi College
8   Keene St
9   Scranton
10   Elmhurst
11   Middlebury
12   Washington U.
13   Hope
14   Puget Sound
15   Wittenberg
16   St. Thomas
17   William Patterson
18   Maryville(TN)
19   Trinity(Conn)
20   Lake Erie
21   Worchester Polytech
22   Messiah
23   Utica
24   Rhode Island College
25   Centre

Thanks to pabegg for his "regional ranking" post in pool C.

Pride, Lincoln is interesting.  How much is OSU-Marion contributing to their total?  How much are the D2's that they contributing?

As for the OSU-Marion game taking out that game still keeps them in the top 25 but drops them down to 17.  So that game contributed a bit more, but again they are still in the top 25. But that is just that game.

[Ralph Turner]

My top 25 "ranking" games are through Monday.  Not too bad, I have 15 of d3hoops top 25 represented, some close or in actual spot of the d3hoops one.  This is based on statistics alone. 

1   Amherst
2   UW-Stevens Point
3   Lincoln
4   Wooster
5   Whitworth
6   Virginia Wesleyan
7   Mississippi College
8   Keene St
9   Scranton
10   Elmhurst
11   Middlebury
12   Washington U.
13   Hope
14   Puget Sound
15   Wittenberg
16   St. Thomas
17   William Patterson
18   Maryville(TN)
19   Trinity(Conn)
20   Lake Erie
21   Worchester Polytech
22   Messiah
23   Utica
24   Rhode Island College
25   Centre

Thanks to pabegg for his "regional ranking" post in pool C.

Pride, Lincoln is interesting.  How much is OSU-Marion contributing to their total?  How much are the D2's that they contributing?

As for the OSU-Marion game taking out that game still keeps them in the top 25 but drops them down to 17.  So that game contributed a bit more, but again they are still in the top 25. But that is just that game.

If we look at the sample and determine that we need to exclude OSU-Marion because it is not representative of the usual D3 schedule, then I think that your #17 throws Lincoln back into the acceptable realm of statistical probability. 

On their good nights with all players on the bench and healthy, then I can believe that they are the 17th best team in the country.

[AndOne]

My top 25 "ranking" games are through Monday.  Not too bad, I have 15 of d3hoops top 25 represented, some close or in actual spot of the d3hoops one.  This is based on statistics alone. 

1   Amherst
2   UW-Stevens Point
3   Lincoln
4   Wooster
5   Whitworth
6   Virginia Wesleyan
7   Mississippi College
8   Keene St
9   Scranton
10   Elmhurst
11   Middlebury
12   Washington U.
13   Hope
14   Puget Sound
15   Wittenberg
16   St. Thomas
17   William Patterson
18   Maryville(TN)
19   Trinity(Conn)
20   Lake Erie
21   Worchester Polytech
22   Messiah
23   Utica
24   Rhode Island College
25   Centre

"This is based on statistics alone."

What statistics?

As any mathematician, including the one I live with, will tell you, you can make statistics do anything you want them to!

Statistics can be especially deceiving when the sample, such as the number of games a basketball team has played, is small. Also, because of the small number of variables to begin with, one player, or one game, can skew the analysis disproportionately.   

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

On their good nights with all players on the bench and healthy, then I can believe that they are the 17th best team in the country.

Yes, but can you believe Middlebury is 11th or that Lake Erie is 20th?

[PrideSportBBallGuy]

AndOne-
As I covered earlier and as we have found out.  Statsistics are very misleading.  These statistics are based upon how teams have played.  It is completely taken from the schools season statistics.  I have already said, I couldn't understand how Team A can play Team B, where Team A steals the ball 10 times from Team B, but Team B only has 3 TO's

Hoops Fan-
Well we will see how well Middlebury is once they play Amherst on Friday.   

[kiltedbryan]

NCAC update:

While #4 Wooster is handling Hiram easily tonight, Ohio Wesleyan is handing #6 Wittenberg everything they can handle at Ohio Wesleyan.  Here's Wittenberg's broadcast page, if you wanted to listen in.

http://www4.wittenberg.edu/news/athletics/sportsnetwork/index.html

Ohio Wesleyan leads by 20 points with about 11 minutes left in the game.

[wooscotsfan]

Final:  Ohio Wesleyan 70  #6 Wittenberg 48

Wittenberg takes a bad road loss tonight as the Bishops dominate this game with a strong shooting performance.

[hope1]

hope won tonight  81  to 42  over adrian   

[wooscotsfan]

Final:  #4 Wooster 111  Hiram 57

Wooster emptied the bench with over 8 minutes remaining as they totally dominated this road game.  14 players saw playing time for the Scots tonight.

Wooster was led tonight by James Cooper with 21 points, Devin Fulk with 14 points, Marty Bidwell with 12 points, Jake Johnson with 11 points, Tim Vandervaart with 10 points and Brandon Johnson with 10 points.

Wooster is now 14-2, 7-0 NCAC    Big game at Ohio Wesleyan on Saturday!

GO SCOTS!!