Top 25 talk

[keith45]

Can anyone provide insight as to why Aurora is still ranked outside of the top 15? They have lost 1 game (a tough, in conference road loss), they have an all american as well as one of the regions best PG's (D. Leonard), 3 solid shooters and a style that is hard to guard.
Is it because of the perceived weakness of the new conference (NAC). This team could win out, and host at home..am I missing something?
Kep an eye on this team, as they return everyone but Leonard next year, and have a few freshman on the bench that are looking to shine...

[Pat Coleman]

Got a similar question via e-mail about a week and a half ago. Here was my response:

Subject: D3 Strength Assessments
        Notes: Just an observation. With the CCIW struggling through much carnage, it appears this conference has always been given credence and praise as the toughest. Looking at the NAC though, it hasn't been given the same type of respect as the CCIW, but with teams like Aurora University, granted they are on the Top 25 but, maybe there should be a better assessment as to the strength of this conference.

Well, first of all, it's a brand-new conference, but secondly, look at the "success" rate in the NCAA Tournament of teams in the NATHC. (The NAC is the North Atlantic Conference. They beat you guys to the acronym by several years.)

The league is 27-40 in non-conference play. The CCIW went 66-22.

These two conference overlap geographically quite a bit. There are many common opponents. I think the league has been assessed fairly.

Pat Coleman
D3hoops.com

... Keith, if you can show me the win that screams that Aurora should be in the Top 15, I'd be quite grateful. Who did they beat that was so good?

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Only because Bob Quillman and I talked about Aurora last night on Hoopsville, I thought I would add this:

- They do have a very impressive win over North Central from earlier this year (85-69). And while North Central is certainly not at the top of the CCIW, they are still in the battle for fourth in the conference and did just beat Wheaton this past weekend. That would probably be Aurora's biggest win this season.

- Unfortunetly, Aurora's record is full of easy wins over weaker conference opponents and Aurora's one loss is to Edgewood... second in the NATHC and not much of a record to stand on either.

Aurora may be a pretty good team... but their schedule doesn't scream respect and again, North Central is their biggest win so far.

However, if they win out... it might be very hard for the NCAA not to give Aurora a rather high seed/Sectional host.

[keith45]

16 point win at then 14th ranked North Central and a 29 point win versus Loras who was just featured on the site. That was North Central's worst home loss of the year, they have beaten Wheaton there and only loss to Augie by one.

I'm surprised that with 1 loss, they have stayed at the 20-18 range....They beat the teams they played, which is all you can ask..
The Edgewood game was a bad loss, but Edgewood game out on fire and got a small dose of home cooking....Can you rememeber a team ranked 15-20 who had 1-2 losses and hosted in the NCAA? Maybe I'm looking at this wrong,a nd their SOS is a bigger indicator than I thought

[diehardfan]

However, if they win out... it might be very hard for the NCAA not to give Aurora a rather high seed/Sectional host.

Since Oxy lost to Redlands last wednesday and now has two regional losses and the SCIAC essentially has zero chance at a sectionals hosting bid, I have been contemplating buying a plane ticket to the midwest and just renting a car and driving to wherever the sectionals happen to be... since plane tickets bought at the last second are ridiculously expensive, and I figured there would probably be one within 5 hrs between Wooster and Point... but this is an interesting factor to throw in the mix. The idea that there may be at least three potential tournament hosts "in the area" is a fun thought.

I was just thinking a few hours ago about the fact that I am concerned about how a team like Hope and Wooster could fare in the tournament after playing such a weak conference schedule, as, abnormally, both teams don't even have one team that is vaguely comparative to their abilities this year. I have no way of knowing if Aurora is at that level (since I don't have the luxury of being able to hop in the car and drive 20 minutes to see them anymore, and as everyone has already stated, it's hard to gauge a team that hasn't played the top local competition). However, I think Aurora could potentially be added to that list.

It might also be tough for them to get to the sectionals, unless they did something like BYE, SLIAC A Bid, Sectionals Host. (Please excuse me if this was already stated on Hoopsville, haven't had a chance to listen to it yet.) If they hosted a CCIW or WIAC school or something on that level, my point above might make it difficult, no matter how much ability/potential they have, to make a strong tourney run against a completely different level of competition.

Though Aurora's Larry Welton is a stud, and let's not forget that even with Larry, Aurora was an 11 loss team. The fact that they have an awesome player doesn't make them have an awesome team in a vaccuum without having proven it on the court under the best conditions.

NCC is an interesting team. They have a complete stud of a player in Daniel Walton. I have been on the Daniel Walton bandwagon since he was a frosh (though to be honest, at the time I thought he was an upperclassman because be played like one)! I really hope this guy gets some serious All-American looks. He had already gotten 10 double-doubles this season, and has posted a season avg of 18.6ppg and 9.9rpg on a team that has a very strong group of big guys. Freshman Brandon Smith developing has probably been the key to NCCs success.... the kid posted 23 pts on Saturday's huge margin victory at home against Wheaton. Though the other guard position is very much up for grabs this late in the season, which I imagine makes it very rough to play a consistant game, NCC may have some good pieces in there... enough to make that 16pt win by Aurora look good... if NCC happened to have showed up for that game. Like Wheaton, they have been incredibly inconsistant thus far this season.

[David Collinge]

They beat the teams they played, which is all you can ask.

This, of course, is Amherst's argument as well.  However, being ranked is a privilege, not a right.  The voters aren't asking anything of anyone.  They are objectively trying to determine which teams are the best in the country, and in what order.  How a team does against their schedule is evidence they can use, but so is the quality of that schedule.  Based on who Aurora has beaten, they must decide how Aurora stacks up against, for example, Carthage, a team with five losses but has played a much tougher schedule, or Worcester Polytech, who has also lost just once against a schedule similar in difficulty to Aurora's.  Ohio Northern has beaten Wooster, Wittenberg, UW-La Crosse, and Baldwin-Wallace, but they've lost four times.  Should we "ask" more of them?  Should they be ranked ahead or behind Aurora?  Who would win on a neutral court?  These are the types of questions that the voters must ask.

[keith45]

They beat the teams they played, which is all you can ask.

This, of course, is Amherst's argument as well.  However, being ranked is a privilege, not a right.  The voters aren't asking anything of anyone.  They are objectively trying to determine which teams are the best in the country, and in what order.  How a team does against their schedule is evidence they can use, but so is the quality of that schedule.  Based on who Aurora has beaten, they must decide how Aurora stacks up against, for example, Carthage, a team with five losses but has played a much tougher schedule, or Worcester Polytech, who has also lost just once against a schedule similar in difficulty to Aurora's.  Ohio Northern has beaten Wooster, Wittenberg, UW-La Crosse, and Baldwin-Wallace, but they've lost four times.  Should we "ask" more of them?  Should they be ranked ahead or behind Aurora?  Who would win on a neutral court?  These are the types of questions that the voters must ask.

Understood...and imho, Aurora could play with the WIAC on a nuetral court. I think they have shown they can play with the CCIW (although I think Elmhurst would give them fits). I think would easily handle the IIAC and would hang with the SLIAC, if not beat them easily. But that is neither here nor there. What I am hearing is, due to the non conference schedule and the weakness of the new conference, Aurora may not rise too much higher, no matter what (unless there are some upsets in the top 10). And while I understand that, is there precedent for a team ranked this low to host a sectional?
Does this boil down to scheduling? My one issue with this new conference is the amount of conference games. I think AU got 6 out of conference games (I think 5 were in region, including 2 CCIW schools)

[Titan Q]

Keith, the D3hoops.com Top 25 poll has no impact on the NCAA tournament seedings or hosting opportunities.  The only ranking you need to look at in terms of tournament implications is the NCAA regional ranking (and the first ranking is not out yet).

Right now, I think 5 Midwest teams have a chance to make a run at a #1 seed in the next 3 weeks...

Aurora (15-1 in-region)
(@ Wisc Lutheran, vs Maranatha Baptist, vs Marian, vs Edgewood, @ Dominican, vs Concordia-IL, @ Rockford)

Washington U. (14-1 in-region)
(@ NYU, @ Brandeis, vs Emory, vs Case Western Reserve, @ Carnegie Mellon, @ Rochester, vs Chicago)

Augustana (16-2 in-region)
(@ North Park, @ Carthage, vs Wheaton, vs Millikin, @ Illinois Wesleyan, vs North Central)

Chicago (13-3 in-region)
(@ Brandeis, @ NYU, vs Case Western Reserve, vs Emory, @ Rochester, @ Carnegie Mellon, @ Wash U)

Elmhurst (11-3 in-region)
(vs Millikin, @ Illinois Wesleyan, vs Carthage, vs North Park, @ North Central, vs Wheaton, @ Millikin)


Of the five, Aurora obviously has the easiest schedule remaining...by a huge margin.  Wash U, Chicago, Augie, and Elmhurst have a bunch of tough games remaining in strong conferences.  Aurora will not play another ranked team -- or even one that has received votes this season -- the rest of the way.  While the Quality of Wins Index rewards victories over the likes of NYU, Brandeis, Carthage, and Wheaton for the UAA and CCIW teams, the simple fact is that a loss - any loss - hurts much more in the QOWI than a win over a weak team.  Aurora has a great chance to be the #1 seed in the Midwest and be in position to host a regional and sectional.

(Note, unlike the "old days", more than one Midwest region team can host a Sectional.)

[David Collinge]

(Note, unlike the "old days", more than one Midwest region team can host a Sectional.)

And, for that matter, it can also be fewer than one team.  I wouldn't want anyone to come away with the false impression that being #1 in a region means you get to host a sectional.  After all, there are eight regions and just four sectionals, and one of them will be somewhere in the northeast (most likely Amherst, barring a huge upset.)

Also, as I believe I pointed out in reference to Miss. College last week, and as diehardfan emphasizes above regarding Aurora, the first prerequisite for the Spartans to host a sectional is for them to reach the sectionals, and that figure to be no small task.  I doubt they'd get a bye no matter how good their bona fides turn out to be, as the five byes seem to be used to solve travel problems which Aurora hasn't got.  They may draw an easy round one opponent, but round two may well give them a tough Pool C team from the CCIW, WIAC, or UAA. 

The only ranking you need to look at in terms of tournament implications is the NCAA regional ranking (and the first ranking is not out yet).

Feb. 7 (a week from Weds.) is the date for the first regional ranking.

[golden_dome]

And while I understand that, is there precedent for a team ranked this low to host a sectional?

The Top 25 poll has nothing to do with hosting a sectional but I think you were saying it should be a good indicator of possible teams. But if you look at the NCAA manual travel is the first concern of the committee when they award the sectionals, they don't pick the highest ranked teams or the most deserving.

If you win out this year you will probably be in the top 10 which definitely fits into the range of past sectional hosts.

Last year's sectionals went to #1 Lawrence, #3 Wittenberg, #4 Amherst and #7 Virginia Wesleyan.

The 2005 sectionals went to #1 Stevens Point, #2 Amherst, #9 Albion and #16 Ramapo.

[gccfan]

I know that Amherst is undefeated, but is there a chance that Miss. College starts to pick up a few #1 votes?  Going the other way, is there a chance that UW-OshKosh jumps over them after beating the #1 team by 17 points?

[Titan Q]

And while I understand that, is there precedent for a team ranked this low to host a sectional?

The Top 25 poll has nothing to do with hosting a sectional but I think you were saying it should be a good indicator of possible teams. But if you look at the NCAA manual travel is the first concern of the committee when they award the sectionals, they don't pick the highest ranked teams or the most deserving.

If you win out this year you will probably be in the top 10 which definitely fits into the range of past sectional hosts.

Last year's sectionals went to #3 Wittenberg, #4 Amherst, #7 Virginia Wesleyan and #11 Illinois Wesleyan.

The 2005 sectionals went to #1 Stevens Point, #2 Amherst, #9 Albion and #16 Ramapo.

IWU did not host a sectional last year...the Midwest/West was hosted by Lawrence.

[golden_dome]

IWU did not host a sectional last year...the Midwest/West was hosted by Lawrence.

Thanks.

[diehardfan]

I think they have shown they can play with the CCIW (although I think Elmhurst would give them fits). I think would easily handle the IIAC and would hang with the SLIAC, if not beat them easily. But that is neither here nor there. What I am hearing is, due to the non conference schedule and the weakness of the new conference, Aurora may not rise too much higher, no matter what (unless there are some upsets in the top 10). And while I understand that, is there precedent for a team ranked this low to host a sectional?
Does this boil down to scheduling? My one issue with this new conference is the amount of conference games. I think AU got 6 out of conference games (I think 5 were in region, including 2 CCIW schools)

While Aurora has obviously shown that they can play with both Millikin and NCC, those teams are North Central (3-4 in conference) and Millikin (1-6 in conference), currently making them teams 6-of-8 and 8-of-8 respectively. Whether Aurora can play with any of the teams that have a good shot at beating any of the teams in the CCIW that actually have a vague shot of being in the tourney still definitely remains to be seen.

[Greek Tragedy]

Whether Aurora can play with any of the teams that have a good shot at beating any of the teams in the CCIW that actually have a vague shot of being in the tourney still definitely remains to be seen.

What the....  LOL 

In English...??

Whether Aurora can play with North Central or North Park that have a good shot at beating Carthage or Wheaton in  the CCIW that actually have a vague shot of being in the tourney still definitely remains to be seen...

Assuming Elmhurst and Augustana have more than a vague shot at being in the tourney.  So, technically, they've already proven that beating North Central, right?