Top 25 talk

[systemfan86]

Haven't been here all year - mostly because none of the MWC teams deserved consideration - but thought I'd raise a question.

Grinnell has a chance to win out and finish the regular season at 17-6 including winning their last 13 in a row (they are currently at 10 in row, and their last three can be considered 'winnable'). If they finish with three wins, do they get a sniff at the 'Others receiving votes' list? Their 6 losses include 3 conference road games, a loss at home to #15 Carthage in the first game of the year, a loss at #8 Oshkosh, and a loss at a neutral court to 14-7 Whitewater.

I know the MWC is 'off' this year, but I would think that if Grinnell can continue to win, they at least merit some consideration. Any response from those in the know?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I had Grinnell somewhere around #43 this week.  I think if they win out, there is certainly a possibility that they creep up into a potential vote getting slot, if other teams lose a few.  However, I think "winning out" would probably have to include the two games in the MWC tournament.

They've been on an impressive streak in terms of road wins and all that, but the MWC is just getting less impressive with every week as competition.

[systemfan86]

I had Grinnell somewhere around #43 this week.  I think if they win out, there is certainly a possibility that they creep up into a potential vote getting slot, if other teams lose a few.  However, I think "winning out" would probably have to include the two games in the MWC tournament.

They've been on an impressive streak in terms of road wins and all that, but the MWC is just getting less impressive with every week as competition.

No doubt that this is a down year in the MWC. We were spoiled by Larry's performance over the last couple of years. No one on the MWC board has any delusions we get more than our A bid. Likewise, I have no delusions that that they actually make the top 25; I just think that they might merit 'consideration' given that they have two losses to top 25 teams, and three early conference losses on the road. The full body of work may be a bit lacking, but since January 1, they've been playing very well.

[golden_dome]

As a south region poster and for debate sake, I do not understand why UMHB has not cracked the Top 25 when compared to other teams.

I use Hope as an example only because I think the schedules are similiar and I think UMHB has a better body of work this year if we don't consider years previous. But I do understand Hope is arguably one of the top few DIII programs traditionally and they have certainly earned it.

Hope is 6th and on a 16-game winning streak

• No big wins against ranked teams or out of region teams, only two wins all season against winning DIII teams
• Eight of their last ten wins against losing teams in what is a weak MIAA this season
• Two losses to Wheaton and Carthage, middle of the CCIW this year. Honestly their biggest argument for their ranking are these losses
• Eight of their last ten wins against losing teams in what is a weak MIAA this season

UMHB is not ranked riding a 13-game winning streak

• Beat #4 Virginia Wesleyan, defending national champion
• Beat Ripon, leader of the MWC. I know the MWC is down this year, but at least it is a win against someone outside their conference as a gauge.
• Five wins against winning DIII teams
• Last seven wins against Losing teams

I don't know anything about the Christian Colleges and NAIA schools that Hope plays, but I am assuming they are like the ones here in the south. UMHB has good wins over #4 Virginia Wesleyan, Ripon and McMurry and decent wins against Trinity and Hardin-Simmons. Hope has beaten Calvin and Tri-State.

I am not saying UMHB is better then Hope, I have no idea because I have not seen Hope play. But if someone looked at the numbers this year and not the name of the school most would swap them in the rankings.

[Titan Q]

I don't know where Hope belongs (I haven't seen them), but on paper they seem too high at #6 based on merit...

http://www.d3hoops.com/school_info.php?school=Hope&team=mens


What would Hope's record be - and what would they be ranked - with #10 Augustana's, #11 Wash U's, or #12 Elmhurst's schedule?

http://www.d3hoops.com/school_info.php?school=Augustana&team=mens

http://www.d3hoops.com/school_info.php?school=Washington%20U.&team=mens

http://www.d3hoops.com/school_info.php?school=Elmhurst&team=mens


Massey has the MIAA as the #23 conference this year (CCIW 1, WIAC 2, UAA 3)...

http://www.mratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb&sub=III&mid=1#conf


With losses to Wheaton and Carthage, and considering schedules, should there be that much separation between #6 Hope, #15 Carthage, and #25 Wheaton?

[Pat Coleman]

Massey's formula must really like those NAIA teams, for what it's worth, because it has Hope fourth. I'm not a big fan of Hope's schedule either, though.

http://www.mratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb&sub=III&mid=1

It has UMHB 30th.

Computers don't look at the name of the school when ranking teams either.

[golden_dome]

Massey's formula must really like those NAIA teams, for what it's worth, because it has Hope fourth. I'm not a big fan of Hope's schedule either, though.

http://www.mratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb&sub=III&mid=1

It has UMHB 30th.

Computers don't look at the name of the school when ranking teams either.

Pat,
  That would make sense. Like I said I don't know anything about those six non-DIII teams they play. I was not sure if they were NCCAA teams or all NAIA or what. I know for voters it has to make a hard voting process that much harder.

In the south and in the ASC in particular, we often have to schedule non-DIII teams due to the scarcity of DIII teams within reasonable travel distance. I am not sure why Hope would have to do that though. I would think they are surrounded by quality DIII opponents.

[Coach C]

While I think that Grinnell's current streak is strong work, one would have to say that the losses on the road in a 'down' conference are troubling at best.

I can't see them getting much consideration at 6 losses.

C

[Mr. Ypsi]

On paper, I would certainly share Q's concerns (especially as I am a CCIW partisan !), but I have seen Hope play - they're legit.  Whether or not they are #6 legit I can't say - the game was at then co-leader Adrian, but the Bulldogs absolutely stunk up the gym that night (some of it due to a swarming Hope defense, but a lot of it unforced).  [I actually saw only half the game - I caved to family pressure to leave with Hope up 39-12.  Since it went to 57-14 before the benches cleared, my family may have had a good idea!]

In such a blow-out it was impossible to tell HOW good Hope is, but they ARE good.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I agree that Hope is probably too high and that MHB is probably a bit too low.  That does come from, among other things, name recognition.  There's just not much you can do about it.  However, it remains that it's easier to be wrong about a team with a solid past versus being wrong about a team with an unknown past.

The poll voters as a whole have been reluctant to change their thinking based on short term results and factors such as a traditionally strong squad in the midst of a poor schedule.  I don't necessarily think there's anything wrong with it either.

I do wonder, in the case of Hope, whether there is a little bit of the "they haven't lost, so we have to move them up" malarkey sneaking in.  There's generally very little of that in Pat's poll, but I tend to think Hope is creeping a bit high.

[sac]

Hope started in the top 25, MHB did not,  Hope has "creeped" up the poll for sure, they've been passed in the poll many times.   Last week's carnage in the top 25 tipped the scale to move Hope higher in my opinion, whether justified or not.

While they did lose to both Carthage and Wheaton, both were winnable games, and Hope was missing a key reserve gaurd and leading with 5 minutes to go.   They probably shouldn't be ranked ahead of Wheaton or Carthage but at some point when wins pile up and the other two keep losing its inevitable they pass them.

Also they not only won their MIAA games up to last week, they completely dismantled, destroyed, dominated 6 or their 7 conference foes.  They've been impressive in those wins.


.....and for what its worth, I do think #6 is to high.

I would think they are surrounded by quality DIII opponents.

Negative.

[Pat Coleman]

Texas standards for travel are different than Michigan's. In Texas you would drive five or six hours at the drop of a hate. In Michigan, though, .... well, there's a lot of whining about how isolated they are.

[sac]

Texas standards for travel are different than Michigan's. In Texas you would drive five or six hours at the drop of a hate. In Michigan, though, .... well, there's a lot of whining about how isolated they are.

mapquest.com

Your free to point out all those quality D3's within 5 hours of Holland, Michigan

[David Collinge]

Texas standards for travel are different than Michigan's. In Texas you would drive five or six hours at the drop of a hate.

This is one of the very best Freudian slips I have ever seen.   

[Mr. Ypsi]

sac beat me to it, but it does bear noting that Hope has not just been beating a weak schedule, many games have been effectively over after the first ten minutes!

There are no other Michigan d3 teams than the MIAA - well, Finlandia, but a) they're not 'quality' and b) they're almost 500 miles away!  It's a lo-o-o-ng drive to any Indiana 'quality' d3s unless I've overlooked someone (I think Wabash would be closest, but still several hours away), and even farther to Ohio.  It is true that they could beef up the in-region schedule with some additional Chicagoland schools.