Top 25 talk

[Pat Coleman]

Your free to point out all those quality D3's within 5 hours of Holland, Michigan

Let's see:

North Central, DePauw, Ohio Northern, John Carroll (4:57 from Holland to University Heights), Illinois Wesleyan, UW-Whitewater, Wabash, Carthage, Wheaton, Aurora ... shall I go on?

[systemfan86]

While I think that Grinnell's current streak is strong work, one would have to say that the losses on the road in a 'down' conference are troubling at best.

I can't see them getting much consideration at 6 losses.

C

Thanks for the input.

I understand the weak conference impact; when coupled with the conference, the 6 losses could be an issue, but in and of itself, 6 losses shouldn't be a problem. Both Carthage and Wheaton are in the top 25 with 6 losses, and others receiving consideration have >4 losses.

I look at a 15-5 team like Loras who is receiving votes, and they have a similar footprint as Grinnell: early losses - they were 4-5 at the beginning on the season - and then an extended winning streak. If Grinnell wins out, they will have beaten every team in their conference.

Again, I'm not saying they should be ranked. I'm just trying to figure out whether the current winning streak that they are on changes the national impression of this team and whether that might be reflected in their receiving votes. I looked at the Massey rankings that Pat linked to, and they were 21st.

Ultimately, it matters very little. The rankings don't impact the NCAA tournament bids, and the only way that Grinnell makes it in the tournament is to win the conference's A bid. Once they're there, who knows?

[Titan Q]

What I like about the current Top 25 is that the six teams I have seen are all basically in the order I'd place them:

#10 Augustana
#11 Wash U
#12 Elmhurst

#15 Carthage

#23 Chicago
#25 Wheaton


I feel that Augustana, Wash U, and Elmhurst, while very different teams, are extremely even all things considered.  On a neutral court, I'd call all of the matchups "pick 'ems."  I love that 10-12 cluster.

I like that Carthage is a few notches down from that group.  And I like that Wheaton and Chicago are in a different tier than Carthage, and very close to each other (they played a one possession type game in the non-conference).  Chicago and Wheaton just are not balanced enough to be ranked much higher -- both have great perimeter play but very little low post presence.

My best guess is that Hope belongs between that 10-12 group and Carthage. 

What am I still struggling with...where does Amherst really fit?

[sac]

Yes thats true, but is Aurora quality?  Hope's played all those Chicagoland D3 schools in the past.  Been awhile since we played North Park for obvious competitive reasons.  You simply can't play all of them every year.

Hope's not going to give up the NAIA rivalries with Cornerstone and Aquinas,  Hope's been playing AQ since the early 60's.  Both Hope and Calvin are guilty of helping out struggling or new programs like Andrews, Grace Bible, Rochester.  By the way Rochester is better than 5 MIAA teams I've seen.  Grace Bible is their defending national champion in their division.

Hope also had an early season game cancelled and had to add Purdue North Central at  the last moment.  I don't know who cancelled but there were few options available for that replacement game.

Your free to point out all those quality D3's within 5 hours of Holland, Michigan

Let's see:

North Central, DePauw, Ohio Northern, John Carroll (4:57 from Holland to University Heights), Illinois Wesleyan, UW-Whitewater, Wabash, Carthage, Wheaton, Aurora ... shall I go on?

Hope's played 6 of those within the past 5 seasons.

[Pat Coleman]

Their division is Division II of the NCCAA -- please don't try to spin us. We're talking at a higher level than that.

Is Aurora quality? Well, compared to Hope, we'll never get to find out, I guess. If Hope played them it would mean something, unlike most of the non-conference schedule. If you need to keep those two local rivalries, that's fine. But the old-school scheduling theories need to go out the window, and that needed to start about five years ago.

Six games in five seasons? Gosh. That's almost one and a half per year. If you have two non-conferene games to schedule, that's a great ratio.

[Pat Coleman]

Q -- I wish I had the same confidence in the ranking of the teams I've seen:

No. 1 Amherst

No. 5 Wooster

No. 9 Mississippi College
No. 11 Washington U.

No. 16 NYU

No. 19 Ohio Northern
No. 20 WPI
No. 22 UW-La Crosse

Aside from Amherst and MC, these teams haven't performed with anywhere near the consistency of your group. The ONU I saw is better than that, but hasn't gotten the job done. Even in that league you shouldn't lose to Marietta.

[sac]

Hope's D3 non-con opponents

2006
--Elmhurst
--Wheaton
--Carthage
--Lakeland
--John Carroll

2005
--Elmhurst
--Wheaton
--Carthage
--UW Whitewater
--Augustana

2004
--Central
--Defiance

2003
--North Central
--Chicago

2002
--Manchester
--North Central
--Mount Union


2001
--Chicago
--Manchester
--North Central
--Concordia, WI

[Pat Coleman]

And 2007, the Top 25 we're talking about right now?

[ChicagoHopeNut]

Carthage and Wheaton (and a non-conference game against a conference opponent, Calvin). I have to agree with Pat on Hope's scheduling, it leaves me wanting every year.  Although as sac points out it was better in 2005 and 2006 than it was this year or years prior. Hopefully, next year will be better. I would love to see an IWU-Hope or Witt/Woo-Hope matchup in the future.

The problem is that the NCAA committee only counts in-region games. Hope might as well play an easy NAIA game that is a guaranteed win and always a home game than do a home and home series with Witt, Woo, IWU, Wash U. etc. (same argument for those schools in reverse) because you don't gain nearly as much winning those games since they are not in region.

[David Collinge]

Carthage and Wheaton (and a non-conference game against a conference opponent, Calvin). I have to agree with Pat on Hope's scheduling, it leaves me wanting every year.  Although as sac points out it was better in 2005 and 2006 than it was this year or years prior. Hopefully, next year will be better. I would love to see an IWU-Hope or Witt/Woo-Hope matchup in the future.

The problem is that the NCAA committee only counts in-region games. Hope might as well play an easy NAIA game that is a guaranteed win and always a home game than do a home and home series with Witt, Woo, IWU, Wash U. etc. (same argument for those schools in reverse) because you don't gain nearly as much winning those games since they are not in region.

Hope vs. Witt or Woo would be in-region.  Also Wabash, Ohio Northern, John Carroll, Capital, DePauw, Wheaton, North Central, Aurora, Baldwin-Wallace, Hanover, Transylvania, Centre, Mississippi College, Virginia Wesleyan, Hampden-Sydney, etc. etc. etc.

[ChicagoHopeNut]

Carthage and Wheaton (and a non-conference game against a conference opponent, Calvin). I have to agree with Pat on Hope's scheduling, it leaves me wanting every year.  Although as sac points out it was better in 2005 and 2006 than it was this year or years prior. Hopefully, next year will be better. I would love to see an IWU-Hope or Witt/Woo-Hope matchup in the future.

The problem is that the NCAA committee only counts in-region games. Hope might as well play an easy NAIA game that is a guaranteed win and always a home game than do a home and home series with Witt, Woo, IWU, Wash U. etc. (same argument for those schools in reverse) because you don't gain nearly as much winning those games since they are not in region.

Hope vs. Witt or Woo would be in-region.  Also Wabash, Ohio Northern, John Carroll, Capital, DePauw, Wheaton, North Central, Aurora, Baldwin-Wallace, Hanover, Transylvania, Centre, Mississippi College, etc. etc. etc.

I wasn't sure on Witt or Woo and I didn't check out mapquest like I should have. Well in that case the games should happen. Now its on the coaches and ADs to see that it does. One great thing about D-1 is the early season matchups through the Big 10-ACC challenge and the Thanksgiving time tourneys.

[David Collinge]

Carthage and Wheaton (and a non-conference game against a conference opponent, Calvin). I have to agree with Pat on Hope's scheduling, it leaves me wanting every year.  Although as sac points out it was better in 2005 and 2006 than it was this year or years prior. Hopefully, next year will be better. I would love to see an IWU-Hope or Witt/Woo-Hope matchup in the future.

The problem is that the NCAA committee only counts in-region games. Hope might as well play an easy NAIA game that is a guaranteed win and always a home game than do a home and home series with Witt, Woo, IWU, Wash U. etc. (same argument for those schools in reverse) because you don't gain nearly as much winning those games since they are not in region.

Hope vs. Witt or Woo would be in-region.  Also Wabash, Ohio Northern, John Carroll, Capital, DePauw, Wheaton, North Central, Aurora, Baldwin-Wallace, Hanover, Transylvania, Centre, Mississippi College, etc. etc. etc.

I wasn't sure on Witt or Woo and I didn't check out mapquest like I should have. Well in that case the games should happen. Now its on the coaches and ADs to see that it does. One great thing about D-1 is the early season matchups through the Big 10-ACC challenge and the Thanksgiving time tourneys.

It's not a question of mapquest; Wittenberg, Wooster, and Hope are all in the Great Lakes Region (so are Wabash, ONU, JCU, Capital, and B-W from above.)  DePauw, Hanover, Transylvania, Centre, MC, VWC, and H-SC are in the same Administrative Region as Hope, making those games count as in-region.  Only Wheaton, Aurora, and NCC from my list involve the 200-mile limit.

FAQ: What is a regional game?

[Greek Tragedy]

3) The teams are within the same NCAA administrative region. Those regions are defined below.

Region 3: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, Puerto Rico, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia.

Haven't been here all year - mostly because none of the MWC teams deserved consideration - but thought I'd raise a question.

Grinnell has a chance to win out and finish the regular season at 17-6 including winning their last 13 in a row (they are currently at 10 in row, and their last three can be considered 'winnable'). If they finish with three wins, do they get a sniff at the 'Others receiving votes' list? Their 6 losses include 3 conference road games, a loss at home to #15 Carthage in the first game of the year, a loss at #8 Oshkosh, and a loss at a neutral court to 14-7 Whitewater.

Yes, the TOP of the MWC is down this year, thanks to graduation of the premiere LU and CC players.  But, overall, I think they are about where they have been in the past.  Off hand, I don't know who Grinnell lost to in their conference, but losing all three of those nonconference games to Carthage, Oshkosh and Whitewater doesn't cry out, "give us respect!"  I think they have to learn how to win those tough games before they get recognized.  I remember several years ago when Grinnell started out 13-0 or something like that, got ranked and then rewarded the voters by losing two in a row, or two of three or something like that.

As a south region poster and for debate sake, I do not understand why UMHB has not cracked the Top 25 when compared to other teams.

I use Hope as an example only because I think the schedules are similiar and I think UMHB has a better body of work this year if we don't consider years previous. But I do understand Hope is arguably one of the top few DIII programs traditionally and they have certainly earned it.

Hope is 6th and on a 16-game winning streak

• No big wins against ranked teams or out of region teams, only two wins all season against winning DIII teams
• Eight of their last ten wins against losing teams in what is a weak MIAA this season
• Two losses to Wheaton and Carthage, middle of the CCIW this year. Honestly their biggest argument for their ranking are these losses
• Eight of their last ten wins against losing teams in what is a weak MIAA this season

Too funny!  Anyway, a lot has been discussed about losing to Wheaton and Carthage, MIDDLE OF THE CCIW this year.  You have to remember that the CCIW is a very strong conference year in and year out, and very even this year, IMO.  So, being in the middle of a conference like that isn't something to be ashamed of.

What MHB does have is a big win over Virg. Wesleyan, but unlike Hope, they haven't gone unbeaten in their OWN conference.  Like everyone else, I think Hope isn't as good as the #6 team and MHB isn't has bad as ORV.  But, if you're in the Top 25 and other teams in the Top 25 lose, it's easier to move up and stay in than it is to move into the Top 25.

But the old-school scheduling theories need to go out the window,.

I like my scheduling theories though! 

The problem is that the NCAA committee only counts in-region games. Hope might as well play an easy NAIA game that is a guaranteed win and always a home game than do a home and home series with Witt, Woo, IWU, Wash U. etc. (same argument for those schools in reverse) because you don't gain nearly as much winning those games since they are not in region.

I was just curious...isn't one of the critiera head-to-head competition or something like record against currently ranked opponents (the NCAA regional rankings)?  So, even if you play a team not considered in-region, could you count that as a win against a ranked opponent, or is that regionally ranked opponent?  Guess I have to check the handbook on that! lol

[David Collinge]

I was just curious...isn't one of the critiera head-to-head competition or something like record against currently ranked opponents (the NCAA regional rankings)?  So, even if you play a team not considered in-region, could you count that as a win against a ranked opponent, or is that regionally ranked opponent?  Guess I have to check the handbook on that! lol

What the handbook says, page 16:

• In-region results vs. regionally ranked teams
Ranked opponents are defined as those teams ranked at the time of the ranking/selection process only.

A team ranked in the East can't count a win over a team ranked in the West as a regional game solely by virtue of the rankings (I don't think that's what you meant, but your comment could be read that way), but that win can be factored into the ranking process.  I think most folks consider this to be a "tie-breaker" type of criterion, with the basic ranking established by region win % and QoWI, then adjusted using the other three primary criteria (head-to-head, record vs. common regional opponent, and record vs. other ranked team.)

[Greek Tragedy]

Titan Q answered my question! ...from the Pool C board.

Remember, there is ranking criteria beyond QOWI and in-region winning %...

* In-region head-to-head
* In-region results vs common opponents
* In-region results vs regionally ranked teams


For example, I'd expect Augustana to be ranked ahead of Wash U since Augie has a head-to-head win, and all other measures are very close.