Top 25 talk

[Coach C]

david -

Thanks!

i had just sighed and wondered when this was ever going to end.

C

[Gregory Sager]

Folks, this discussion of "who has the best record since XXX" (accompanied by Greg's annual bashing of the NCAC )

But ... but ... but ... this year I did a chart!

but I think this is not the best place to have it.

Amen!

I will post the all-time tournament winning % lists in the "Schools' all-time Division III record" room.

[ILive4This]

So there has been much speculation, discussion, and even an official (non d3 hoops poll) stating that Amherst is not the number 1 team in the country, most replacing them with Wash U. I saw both teams play last year, and both return large numbers of starters and reserves. However, although i do not attend either school, if I were a member of the lord Jeffs squad I might take this as a bit of an insult. THEY are the national champs, and while I understand that Wash U has one heck of a squad, until Amherst faulters, they should be the number 1 team in the country, thats just usually how it works, and should work.

[Coach C]

Poll's out.  It's official.  They are not the #1 team in the country anymore.  Wash U has a lot more coming back than Amherst does.  The national championship gets you The Walnut and Bronze, but not a pre-season #1.

C

[Mr. Ypsi]

Q, thanks for your ballot (I challenge more voters to do the same - it would be fascinating)!

I have no real quibbles, but my guess is you have Wooster too low at 18.  You may well be right about how much they will miss Tom Port, but my gut says James Cooper will carry them quickly into the top 10 (and may even challenge for national POY, though Ben Strong, barring injury or other misfortune, may have a lock on that).

But I know that the Scots are certainly NOT a team any Titan is likely to overlook, so if they earn it I'm sure you'll grant it!

Chuck, Wooster didn't just lose Tom Port...they also lost Tim Vandervaart and Andy Van Horn.  I believe Wooster fans would tell us that the Scots really lost a lot to graduation.  And not just in on-the-court production -- they also lost some solid leaders.

I think #18 is a nice safe place to start Wooster.  Cooper is certainly a superstar, but I want to see the rest of the cast perform before I starting moving the Scots up.  I am not sure there is a Division III player better than Wheaton's Kent Raymond, and the Thunder aren't on my ballot at all because I have big questions about his supporting cast.  Cooper seems to be surrounded by good talent, but again, I want to see it click first.

It was strange to not have Wittenberg in a ballot.  Usually Wooster and Wittenberg end up right next to each other on my ballot...just a matter if 1/2, 9/10, or 13/14.

Bob, you had me convinced - and then the rest of the voters go and install Woo at #8!

Preseason polls are fun, but that's why I don't take much seriously until (at least) January!

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Bob, you had me convinced - and then the rest of the voters go and install Woo at #8!

Well we can't have Wooster start lower; then they might drop out of the Top 25 and we can't have that!

[David Collinge]

Bob, you had me convinced - and then the rest of the voters go and install Woo at #8!

Well we can't have Wooster start lower; then they might drop out of the Top 25 and we can't have that!

Top 25?  Heck, Wooster hasn't even been out of the top 10 since Week 8 of the 2003-04 season.  This is the 54th straight top 10 week for the Scots, which is (needless to say) a poll record.

[sac]

Top 25?  Heck, Wooster hasn't even been out of the top 10 since Week 8 of the 2003-04 season.  This is the 54th straight top 10 week for the Scots, which is (needless to say) a poll record.

......and a very impressive one, pre-season poll or not.

[old_hooper]

Amherst is loaded.  They will be bigger and faster then last year.  They lost 4 players off of last years team, 3 that were starters but most people that are familar with the Herst know that their big man 6'10 Hopkins (Sr this year) was the key post player on the team last year.   This year he will have his opportunity to shine.  The other players (last yr Sr) Wheeler was the leading scorer but will be replaced with someone who is 3" bigger and probably 25 or 30 pounds bigger in Goldsmith, 6'3 McLaughlin was the stable defensive player for them last year and then Salerno who surprised everyone with his ability to come in off the bench as defensive stopper.  Goldsmith would have been a starter last year but broke his leg and spent the year recovering from the injury.  Coulibaly is 6'5 and the likely player to replace McLaughlin in the lineup and is very athletic player that was starting last year and when he had the family tragedy with only 10 games into the season, Amherst new star (Baskauskas Jr.) proved he was too good to keep out of the line-up.   With Goldsmith and Coulibaly who were or would have started last year it does not look like there will be a big drop off in talent for the Jeffs.  Not to mention they have 6'8 Walters who could start and the 6'7 Jones that will also get significant minutes this year to backup Hopkins.  Look for Wheeler's little bro to be a big contributor this year too, he is 6'5 or 6'6 and has range.  If Wash U and Amherst have years that most think they will it could be the match up of the year in Salem.

[smedindy]

If Wash U and Amherst have years that most think they will it could be the match up of the year in Salem.

Oh, man. I thought for sure the matchup of the year was Green Mountain / Maine - Presque Isle in December. 

[formerD3er]

Well WU sweeps all the preseason polls (at least the four I've seen).  And if I may say so, it means someone had to see something big in them if a NESCAC school is the defending champ, bringing pack the POY and overtaken by a Midwestern school who has never won the whole thing.

They certainly do seem to have all the pieces.  Everyone knows about All-Americans Ruths and Wallace, but Nading might be their MVP.  I will go on record as saying he is the BEST DEFENDER IN DIII, as well as a go-to guy on offense.  Solid bench, great shooters - but they won't be overlooked to start this year like last.

Not many teams who start at number one end up there, but I know I'll be routing for the Bears to do it.  Potentially an unbelievable championship matchup in WU v Amherst.  I'd say we have two classes to start this year: Wash U/Amherst - and everybody else.  Not to say someone else couldn't win it, but they will be the heavy favorites and garner all the attention to start the year.

Good luck to both teams (but especially the Bears!  ) 

[Mr. Ypsi]

Wow, are people getting ahead of themselves with the Wash U/Amherst title match!

Just ask undefeated #1 Lawrence (2006) or #1 Stevens Point (2007) how hard it is to even reach Salem.  And those were end-of-regular-season #1s, not pre-season - if you're feeling daring, you might even ask last year's pre-season #2 (UW-Oshkosh) how their season went.

I know the temptation of anticipation (veterans will recall my slowly-rising odds of IWU running the table in 2005-06 - they didn't even win the CCIW, though at least they did bounce back and reach Salem); by February Wash U/Amherst may (or may not) even be the game we are hoping to see in the Finals.

Nonetheless, carry on!  I plan to speculate too!   [It helps to pass the winter - but, jeez, with the temps we had in October, it's barely fall yet!]

(Modified to correct the years.)

[Gregory Sager]

Top 25?  Heck, Wooster hasn't even been out of the top 10 since Week 8 of the 2003-04 season.  This is the 54th straight top 10 week for the Scots, which is (needless to say) a poll record.

......and a very impressive one, pre-season poll or not.

I agree. And yet it just doesn't seem quite right to measure poll appearance streaks in this manner, since by their very nature they put equal weight upon end-of-season polls (for which the pollsters have plenty of performance data upon which to place their rankings) and preseason polls (for which they have absolutely none). The Others Receving Votes category in particular seems to be the repository of a lot of stab-in-the-dark guesses in this year's preseason poll (as it often is). See my commentary about Chicago (whom I saw scrimmage this evening) in CCIW Chat for more details.

I recognize the utility of a preseason poll; also, while I dislike them, I can understand why Pat has early-season polls as well. However, they simply don't have the same value as late-season polls, and as Chuck points out they really shouldn't be taken as seriously.

I think that if you really wanted to chart streaks that have substantive value, you'd make the categories, "Most consecutive weeks receiving votes in January/February/March polls", "Most consecutive weeks receiving Top 10 rankings in January/February/March polls", etc. Then again, I don't want to presume upon David's gracious efforts by forcing him to create an entirely new database.

THEY are the national champs, and while I understand that Wash U has one heck of a squad, until Amherst faulters, they should be the number 1 team in the country, thats just usually how it works, and should work.

That's not the methodology behind the d3hoops.com poll, IL4T. It's not a performance-based poll. It's a strength-based poll. In other words, the pollsters are not voting strictly upon wins and losses per se; their rankings are based upon what they perceive to actually be the best teams in the country. If it were a performance-based poll, then, yes, Amherst would by default begin the year at #1. However, a performance-based poll would mean that a comparatively mediocre team that mops up in a subpar league should be ranked ahead of a better team that doesn't do quite as well in terms of wins and losses because it's in a better league.

If you want a performance-based poll, here it is:

http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/rankings

That's not what this website's poll is all about.

Everyone knows about All-Americans Ruths and Wallace, but Nading might be their MVP.  I will go on record as saying he is the BEST DEFENDER IN DIII 

And I will go on record as saying that I'D LIKE TO SEE YOU PROVE THAT.

Wow, are people getting ahead of themselves with the Wash U/Amherst title match!

You can tell that this room has definitely veered off into the Twilight Zone when Chuck is the one who is trying to rein in others from getting carried away with overspeculating.

[Knightstalker]

The others receiving votes; AKA the Usual Suspects.  It seems every year many of the same teams are receiving some votes but not enough to break into the top 25.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

Everyone knows about All-Americans Ruths and Wallace, but Nading might be their MVP.  I will go on record as saying he is the BEST DEFENDER IN DIII, as well as a go-to guy on offense. 

Would that be the same Nadig that Cramer dropped 25 on in the elite eight last year?