Top 25 talk

[atn alum]

interesting to note

16 teams left in each gender

only 8 ranked men's teams left
15 ranked women's teams left

[Jacketfan2011]

Is it just me or is determining a conference's strength by comparing teams to each other a bit of a red herring ?  Not even sure that is the right term, but I like saying it.  There are two conclusions I can draw when conference teams beat up on each other.  1 - the conference sucks top to bottom.  2 - the conference is great top to bottom.  Isn't the true measure of a conferences strength their record against good teams outside their conference?  In that regard, I believe the UAA has 6 of the top 7 strength's of schedule, led by Emory at #1.   Granted some of that must be due to confernce play but part must also come from outside teams.

[Pat Coleman]

I've posted this before, but I continue to feel strongly that the WIAC has come back to the pack in a big way now that redshirting has been banned.  Former UW-Stevens Point head man Dick Bennett pointed to this as well in a radio interview he did early in the year.  The feasibility of redshirting (for non-medical reasons) was a huge advantage for the WIAC.

A level playing field is a must at the D3 level.  When did the redshirt ban start?

Before the 2004-05 season. The Northwest Conference and American Southwest Conference also frequently used the so-called "routine redshirt."

[Mr. Ypsi]

interesting to note

16 teams left in each gender

only 8 ranked men's teams left
15 ranked women's teams left

This has been discussed a bit on the women's top 25 board (and elsewhere).  IMO there just isn't the depth of women's talent (yet!) that there is with the men.  Girl's basketball is still very young in terms of quality coaching, parity in attention and facilities, etc.  The men go at least 50 deep in high quality teams (and even #70 has a decent chance of an 'upset' against a top 10 team on a given night); such is simply not (yet!) the case with the women (or another way of saying it: the gap between #10 and #50 is far smaller for the men than for the women).

[sac]

The women's National Tournament committee's have been 1000% better at moving teams around Mr. Y.  I don't believe the women had any first and second round pods with an Augustana/WashingtonU/Wooster in it.

Take the Great Lakes Region for example on the women's side where Thomas More, DePauw and Hope were ranked 1, 2, 3 pretty much all season with DePauw having the only loss.

The only way any of the 3 teams could have met was in the Final Four or Championship game.

The men's tournament has been better at moving teams the last 3 years, but they could still be better in seeding teams.

[Mr. Ypsi]

sac, you're absolutely correct, but if I counted right there were only 3 men's pods without a top 25 team, so the men could have still sent 13 ranked teams to the Sweet Sixteen.  The main difference, IMO, is that unranked men's teams are far more likely to pull 'upsets' than unranked women's teams.

[Hugenerd]

Wash U beat Augustana in overtime Saturday.  As I have said all season long, there is no separation there.  Those are two very different but dead-even basketball teams.

Looking at the UAA vs CCIW team-by-team as the standings finished...

1. Chicago (11-3) vs Augustana (11-3)
2. Wash U (10-4) vs IWU (9-5)
2. Brandeis (10-4) vs Wheaton (9-5)
4. Rochester (9-5) vs Elmhurst (8-6)
5. Carnegie Mellon (6-8) vs Carthage (7-7)
6. NYU (6-8) vs North Park (6-8)
7. Emory (3-11) vs North Central (4-10)
8. Case (1-13) vs Millikin (2-12)

I know a couple things:

1) Augustana is better than Chicago.
2) Wash U is better than IWU.

After that, I haven't seen enough of the UAA to know where the advantage goes.  However, I suspect Brandeis vs Wheaton is a push, and I suspect Rochester vs Elmhurst is as well.  (Remember, Elmhurst beat #1 Hope on a neutral floor.)  I'm guessing 5-8 are toss-ups as well.

When you get right down to it, is there really any separation here?

How do you "know" those things?  Chicago beat WashU a week ago by 8 and Augustana lost to WashU by 3 two days ago.  These types of objective arguments dont prove anything.  Also, if you want to bring up Elmhurst beating #1 Hope: remember that Rochester was ranked #1 for most of the weeks this season, WashU was ranked #1 a few times, and Brandeis was ranked #2 for most of the season.  They lost these high rankings by losing in conference, not by losses to teams in other conferences.

The fact is that the UAA is 80-20 this year out of conference, the best out-of-conference win% of anyone (CCIW is 68-23, WIAC is 55-29, for fairness to these two leagues I have not counted the conference tourneys since this adds 7 wins and 7 losses).  Additionally, the UAA is ranked 1st in the regular Massey Ratings (by alot, UAA: 0.48, NESCAC: 0.277, CCIW: 0.249, WIAC: 0.195), they are first in Massey with MOV (UAA: 0.506, NESCAC: 0.373, WIAC: 0.336, CCIW: 0.323), and they have 3 teams in the sweet 16.  I dont believe anyone has a stronger resume.

[Titan Q]

How do you "know" those things?  Chicago beat WashU a week ago by 8 and Augustana lost to WashU by 3 two days ago.  These types of objective arguments dont prove anything.  Also, if you want to bring up Elmhurst beating #1 Hope: remember that Rochester was ranked #1 for most of the weeks this season, WashU was ranked #1 a few times, and Brandeis was ranked #2 for most of the season.  They lost these high rankings by losing in conference, not by losses to teams in other conferences.

The fact is that the UAA is 80-20 this year out of conference, the best out-of-conference win% of anyone (CCIW is 68-23, WIAC is 55-29, for fairness to these two leagues I have not counted the conference tourneys since this adds 7 wins and 7 losses).  Additionally, the UAA is ranked 1st in the regular Massey Ratings (by alot, UAA: 0.48, NESCAC: 0.277, CCIW: 0.249, WIAC: 0.195), they are first in Massey with MOV (UAA: 0.506, NESCAC: 0.373, WIAC: 0.336, CCIW: 0.323), and they have 3 teams in the sweet 16.  I dont believe anyone has a stronger resume.

From seeing all four teams play.  I feel confident that Augie is better than Chicago and Wash U is better than IWU.  I trust my ability to evaluate teams and that is how I see it.

I do think the UAA was the best league this year, but I guess I am just saying I don't see a ton of real separation.  I'm guessing you play those games (1 vs 1, 2 vs 2, etc) and you get 8 barn-burners, just like we got in real life when #2 Wash U played #2 IWU in St. Louis...

http://www.iwu.edu/~iwunews/sports/mbb2008/IWUMBB7.HTM

[David Collinge]

In my latest blog post, I mentioned that I would submit pick'em entries based on how the Week 14 Top 25 polls told me to pick the games. 

After the first weekend, as you may have guessed, my men's pick'em is getting thrashed.  I have scored 35 points, ranking a distant 108th overall.  I have just eight teams still alive, and two of my final four selections lost the first chance they could.  In the lower left of the bracket, I got just six first-round games correct, and missed on every second-round game.  I think it is safe to assume that this entry will not win.

The women's pick-em is doing substantially better, and even appears among the leaders (barely) in the standings email.  This bracket sits in 17th place with 49 points, a mere six points out of the lead.  I still have 11 teams alive, including three of my final four. 

[fcnews]

The women's National Tournament committee's have been 1000% better at moving teams around Mr. Y.  I don't believe the women had any first and second round pods with an Augustana/WashingtonU/Wooster in it.

I thought I'd warn you sac, we're not suppose use this term on this site.

[Pat Coleman]

Agreed -- let's not use the NAIA terms here in talking about the NCAA Tournament!

We don't have a regional tournament; there's only one NCAA Tournament.

However, Sac is referring to the committee, not the tournament. Kind of an important detail.

[fcnews]

You mean the Women's NCAA Tournament committee?

[Pat Coleman]

Nope. I mean the NCAA Women's Division III Basketball Committee. Thanks for inquiring.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Nope. I mean the NCAA Women's Division III Basketball Committee. Thanks for inquiring.

However, sac's wording can be useful to distinguish the National Committee from the various Regional Committees.

[sac]