Top 25 talk

[sac]

Perhaps its time to introduce the pollsters to the 8-1 Ohio Northern Polar Bears.

http://www.d3hoops.com/school/ONU/mens/2009

http://www-new.onu.edu/athletics/mbasketball/roster

ONU has a win over 6-3 and holder of 8 poll points Defiance.  ONU also beat Heidelberg, one of Defiance's other losses.

While we're discussing 6-3 teams, how about Anderson with two losses to #1 Platteville by 2 and # 4 Washington by 2.

There is basketball outside the upper Mississippi Valley.

[sac]

Here's another 8-1 team, Mount Union, they play more than football I guess.

http://www.d3hoops.com/school/MTU/mens/2009

[Pat Coleman]

Lawrence received 6 points in the new poll and Carthage received 3. Cal Lutheran, which is 6-1 and handily defeated both Lawrence and Carthage, doesn't appear in the poll.

What a joke.

OxyBob

I'm not going to lose sleep over Cal Lutheran if the SCIAC voter wasn't even impressed enough to include them.

[April]

Lawrence received 6 points in the new poll and Carthage received 3. Cal Lutheran, which is 6-1 and handily defeated both Lawrence and Carthage, doesn't appear in the poll.

What a joke.

OxyBob

I'm not going to lose sleep over Cal Lutheran if the SCIAC voter wasn't even impressed enough to include them.

My response would be... did that SCIAC voter also vote for Lawrence? My guess would be no.

I get that some voters would be uncomfortable with putting Point so high without putting Lawrence on their poll since they beat Point. I just don't know how you can justify ranking Lawrence above Cal Lu if you're a voter. Lawrence lost to Cal Lu by TWENTY POINTS. That's a lot more than a home court advantage spread, I don't care how far you flew! Cal Lu looked like they existed on an entire different speed than Lawrence.

They have two losses:

The first one was an exihibition game against Cal State - Northridge ( I get that the Big West isn't really a major conference, but it's still a DI school, and they only lost by 11.)

While Cal Lu's loss to Pacific is obviously bad, and it's one of the few votes than anyone has to compare with in terms of competition against D3 teams, I am chalking it up to the fact that CLU is a very young team. Check out their roster. http://www.clusports.com/mens_basketball/roster/ They don't have a single senior player, and literally half of their measley 12 person roster is freshmen. Their six biggest impact players are 2 jrs, 2 sophs, and 2 frosh. IMHO, they're going to be quite good in the future, the future very likely being even this season... and have several solid D3 wins under their belt that counteract this one blemish.

I am giving OxyBob leave to be miffed on this one, sorry. 

[Titan Q]

I'll preface this post by saying I did not vote for Lawrence, Carthage, Cal Lutheran, Ohio Northern, or Mount Union on this ballot.  I considered Ohio Northern, Cal Lu, and Mt Union but just wasn't quite ready to pull the trigger on any of them. 

Just a couple general thoughts here...

1) Lawrence has just 6 poll points - 6 voters had them #25 or 3 had them #24 or something like that.  Carthage has just 3 poll points.  Both are a long, long way from being in the Top 25 (72 pts needed this week). 

2) The poll is a collection of opinions of 25 individuals spread out pretty evenly across Division III.  You might have a couple voters who are real high on Stevens Point who value that Lawrence win quite a bit, or others who have Grodon on their ballot, a few who are big on Defiance, etc.  The "others receiving votes" category will always be a mixed bag of sorts because of the number of opinions that go into the poll. 

3) This is just the Week 4 poll.  We're not even to January yet.  I have no idea who the best 25 teams in NCAA Division III are and, as hard as I work to make sure my ballot is as accurate as possible each week (by getting to games, following scores, talking to others around the country, or even watching games online now, which I've done for Carthage @ Cal Lutheran and Chicago @ Carleton so far this year), the reality is that there just is not enough data yet.  Right now the poll is more about preseason assumptions (which are based on 2007-08 results and returning talent) than it is about actual 2008-09 data.  Sure there are plenty of '08-09 scores factored in, but not enough yet.  As we get into mid to late January, the poll will sort itself out.  Teams like Ohio Northern, Cal Lutheran, and Mount Union will have a chance to prove themselves.

[NWCer]

April, just curious on why you say Cal Lu's loss to Pacifc is "obviously bad"?  Is it because it ruined their top 25 chances or do you think, regardless of the fact that they were dominated from start to finish by my Boxers, you think they are a better team than Pacific?

[OxyBob]

While Cal Lu's loss to Pacific is obviously bad...

April, just curious on why you say Cal Lu's loss to Pacifc is "obviously bad"?  Is it because it ruined their top 25 chances or do you think, regardless of the fact that they were dominated from start to finish by my Boxers, you think they are a better team than Pacific?

I don't agree that CLU's loss to Pacific is "obviously bad," whatever that means. Pacific lost a road game to D-II Hawaii Pacific, and road games to NAIA-2 Northwest Christian U and Northwest U of the Cascade Collegiate Conference, home of the undefeated, unanimously No. 1 ranked, and defending NAIA-2 champion Oregon Institute of Technology. The CCC is a pretty good conference.

Still, I don't think a loss to Pacific is as bad as a loss to Olivet Nazarene, another team to which Carthage lost besides Cal Lutheran. I seem to recall reading somewhere that "Olivet Nazarene is a pretty good team that would fit into the CCIW mix at about the #5 slot...but no better than that." I think another CCIW team lost to Olivet, too, but something tells me that Titan Q didn't leave that team off his ballot.

I am giving OxyBob leave to be miffed on this one, sorry.

Thanks, but I'm not miffed. Like I said once before, I always keep a copy of the D3hoops Top 25 poll with me at all times when I go backpacking in the Sierras. The poll makes an excellent makeshift compass because it always points east.

OxyBob

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

OxyBob - you may feel the poll shifts East and you would be right for one reason, most schools are in the East!

However, as a voter who is in the East, I work very hard to see the whole picture and not have the fact that Ursinus (a team I am not putting in by ballot) sway me because they are less than two hours from me over a team like Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (who is in my ballot). Now, if we can just get thier coach to call us back to be on Hoopsville, we will be all set (one no two weeks ago, no answer last week to repeated emails from my producer).

Also, Pat has a point, if the SCIAC voter isn't putting Cal Luteran in his ballot, why should that convince a voter from Baltimore to do the same? That would be like convincing that SCIAC voter to put Ursinus on his ballot (not sure if he has) when I can't do the same myself!

I have been mulling over Cal Luteran. They were one of about 12 teams I considered putting into my Top 25, but there was only two teams I took out, I believe, so there wasn't a lot of room. That being said, the next time we vote - two weeks - things could be completely different and I may add them. Heck, If the voters knew who the top 25 teams were at this time in the season and they were right about it? What would be the point in playing the NCAA Tournament in March, just play it now and have the fun right after New Years!

Now, back to enjoying what will be a very White Christmas here in Maine. And I think I am going to start a new hobby, taking pictures of all the D3 school stickers I see on the back of cars during my travels. Wish I had time or the schedule this year to catch a game or two on my way up and back from Down East! Oh well!!!

[John Gleich]

Ya know, this is pretty amazing... 8 of the top 10 teams in the preseason are still in the top 10, and the other two (Amherst and Elmhurst) were in the top 17.

Regarding Lawrence (and their opponents)...

LU has beaten Point.  And I don't want to take away from that victory, because it is a big one... but Point was very shorthanded in that game.  They didn't have Pete Rortvedt or Louis Hurd.  Now, the same players did beat Whitewater... but they'd had longer to get everything figured out, being shorthanded.  Thus, I don't think that the Lawrence loss really hurts Point all that much, in the long run.  They've still beaten Whitewater and Elmhurst... and both those teams just have 1 loss (and EC just knocked off Wash U, of course).

You've gotta look at LU's full slate of games.  LU is 6-3 (no one else in the top 25 has more than 2), and those losses were to UW Oshkosh (4-5), Marian (4-6), and Cal Lutheran (6-1).  Two of the wins are against Cal Tech (0-8) and Knox (0-9).  The one win against Point doesn't outweigh the rest of the games.  The Cornell win looks good... 'cept that, in their 8 wins, they've beaten Knox (0-9), Ripon (3-2), Simpson (4-5), Webster (2-6), Maryville (3-5), and Concordia (3-5).  And you've gotta remember that LU was #19 in the preseason.  The voters had pretty high hopes for them... and they haven't lived up.  They've gotta build their credibility back up, which is something they might be able to do in the MWC... but they're just two games in.

CLU might be a different story... but I don't think that they have enough credibility yet.  They don't get a lot of exposure, due largely to their remote location, which really isn't their fault, but much in the same way that the IIAC hadn't gotten much love because they hadn't done much in March, I think the SCIAC teams are in a bit of the same boat.  Yes, they passed the tests against Lawrence and Carthage.  But LU's credibility is a bit cracked... so maybe that doesn't mean quite as much as it initially looked like.  And Carthage looks good... only two losses... but we'll see what they'll be able to sustain against the rigors of the CCIW schedule... and against #1 UW Platteville on the 29th.

And really, other than the top 10 I was talking about, what do we really know about the rest of the top 25 teams?  They've had successful seasons so far... like I said above, all have two losses or less.  That certainly counts for something.  But what sets CLU or LU ahead of, say, Millikin or Gordon?  I just don't think that they have enough positives going for them.

If they can knock off Buena Vista, then I think they might have enough to garner more votes.  Or push hard in their conference and win the thing.  'Cause truly, the top 25 really doesn't mean anything, in the grand scheme.  And the top 25 is not as good a symbolic tool at week 4 as it is at week 12.

And even if it DID have true meaning other than symbolic value, it only shows the top of the top.  This is the top 25 teams out of 360 some odd teams.  That's the top 7%, roughly.  It's ok if your team isn't there... heck, it's great that they're getting votes!  And if a team is ticked because they're not on the top 25, they either are putting too much value on the poll... or it is going to inspire them to get better and win more games and thus end up there anyway.

I'm not saying any of this to discredit the poll... I like it and I think the pollsters to a great job.  But a team can only control what they can control.  And those are the things that they need to focus on.  And I understand that we're all the fans and we CAN'T control even what the teams can... and we want our teams on top merely because they're our team, and of course we want them on top.  But there are hundreds... HUNDREDS of teams that aren't getting votes.  And if a team deserves to get votes, then their play will prove this, and they will rise to the top.

[OxyBob]

I'm not going to lose sleep over Cal Lutheran if the SCIAC voter wasn't even impressed enough to include them.

Also, Pat has a point, if the SCIAC voter isn't putting Cal Luteran in his ballot, why should that convince a voter from Baltimore to do the same?

As I said to Gregory Sager in another post, I won't engage in that kind of sophistry. How am I supposed to know why someone whose identity I don't know voted or didn't vote a certain way? Go ask them.

OxyBob

[thebear]

Not quite sure why Middlebury is receiving votes and SLU is not.  SLU beat Middlebury by double digits, and their only losses are close to ranked teams - Ursinus & Ithaca.  Could there be a NESCAC bias in the poll? 

[Maxamillion3030]

That is terrible.. But a 6-3 Defiance team gets votes? A team that Northern already beat, mind you. Just give them motivation, thats fine!!

[Ethelred the Unready]

Not quite sure why Middlebury is receiving votes and SLU is not.  SLU beat Middlebury by double digits, and their only losses are close to ranked teams - Ursinus & Ithaca.  Could there be a NESCAC bias in the poll? 

I think it may be 1 of 2 things.  First they have only played 6 games and are 4-2.  Second their other wins are against Platts, Pots and S. Vt.  Not terrible but not great.  I think if they continue to play well they may get some love.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I'm not going to lose sleep over Cal Lutheran if the SCIAC voter wasn't even impressed enough to include them.

Also, Pat has a point, if the SCIAC voter isn't putting Cal Luteran in his ballot, why should that convince a voter from Baltimore to do the same?

As I said to Gregory Sager in another post, I won't engage in that kind of sophistry. How am I supposed to know why someone whose identity I don't know voted or didn't vote a certain way? Go ask them.

OxyBob

Bob - how do you know other voters haven't ask them? If I were to ask Bob Quillman about a team he is not voting in his ballot from the Midwest, there may be a good chance I won't vote them, too. Why not? He is going to give me a reason to vote for that team!

While I understand you feel CLU is not getting the respect voters should give them, but I wish you would also take the time and see other teams in other parts of the country that may be in the same boat. If CLU continues to play well, I assure you they will get votes, they will always do.

Though, let me give you something else to ponder. I know some voters consider how a team is doing and how they think they will do in a tournament for the national title. Name me the last time a good SCIAC team that had a good record through-out the season actually got anywhere worth a headline in the NCAA Tournament. I know that the NCAA has lined up SCIAC teams to eliminate themselves or tough competition early due to travel restrictions, but if I as a voter should take any SCIAC team seriously, they need to prove that their record is more than just a good record - that they are a team that warrants a place in the Top 25. If CLU is for real, they will get those votes and they will be in the tournament. When that happens, then I will look forward to see what they do.

[OxyBob]

Name me the last time a good SCIAC team that had a good record through-out the season actually got anywhere worth a headline in the NCAA Tournament.

More sophistry. Change the subject. Nice tactic.

Back to the subject, in case you missed it, last season Cal Lutheran was 21-5 and was co-SCIAC champs with Oxy, which made the playoffs. The Kingsmen also beat UW-Stevens Point, which made the playoffs, Gettysburg, which made the Sweet 16, and twice beat Pomona, which made the playoffs. For someone who has a weekly basketball talk show, CLU should have already been on your radar. (Didn't you do a puff piece interview with Rich Rider? I think you asked him hard-hitting questions about playing Caltech.) Maybe once in awhile you should talk to someone other than the CCIW honk.

OxyBob