Top 25 talk

[KnightSlappy]

I feel strongly about the top 10...after that, it was llike picking out of a hat.

How big was the hat?

[nescac1]

I think, Titan Q, you have the New England teams placed about right for the most part.  UMass Dartmouth has the most returning talent in the region and definitely deseves a top-ten ranking.  Williams and Amherst should settle in as top 20 but not-quite-top-ten teams (I do believe Williams has top-ten talent this year, but until they prove it on the court, and find a way to stay healthy, that is all on paper; Amherst loses some strong players but it has a great sophomore class which figures to be much improved from last year).  The only questionable one is Bridgewater State.  They did have a good NCAA win against Midd, but the two guys who scored over half the points in that game graduated, including their star cetner who led the team in most statistical categories.  MASCAC is a weak league so whoever wins the conference generally has a bit of an inflated record, but I would be suprrised if they field a top-25 caliber team this year.  Brandeis is a big question mark as they were fairly mercurial last year and do lose their top two players.  Overall I think NESCAC is up from last year but the rest of New England is down as, outside of UMD, the bulk of the best non-NESCAC players in the region (Kathan, almost everyone on RIC, Deluca, Salem's key guys, Bartolotta, Millien, etc. etc.) graduate, and several NESCAC schools (especially Wesleyan, Amherst, Williams, Trinity) are reputed to have strong recruits coming in. 

[Titan Q]

Yes, I wasn't 100% comfortable with where I have Bridgewater State...but I think I can say that for most of my teams from 11-25 unfortunately. 

I have Bridgewater State returning 4 starters from their 22-7/2 NCAA win team (Judah Jackson, Nicholas Motta, Matt McLaughlin, Corey Connor).  They have a big void to fill, but on paper, they look poised to be pretty good again.

[hopefan]

It's amazing to me , who spends so much time on schedules etc, how much effort must  go into reviewing makeup of teams, who was good last year, who is coming back etc  - on a national level.  My sincere appreciation to TQ and the rest of the voters for doing the research to come up with a preseason top 25, giving the rest of us something to chew on during the month before games.....

[Ralph Turner]

I am looking foward to McMurry's participating in the Lee Pfund Classic.

McMurry (defending champion of the ASC-West) opens with Ohio Northern, and then catches the winner/loser of the Wheaton/Trine game.

That tourney pits the CCIW, the MIAA, the ASC and the OAC.

[Gregory Sager]

I don't have a ballot in the d3hoops.com Top 25 poll, but I have been researching the various leagues for the past week or so in order to come up with my own preseason Top 25. This is what I have:

1. Washington MO
2. John Carroll
3. Wooster
4. Guilford
5. Franklin & Marshall
6. Richard Stockton
7. St. Thomas
8. DeSales
9. Mass-Dartmouth
10. UW-Stevens Point
11. Ohio Northern
12. Williams
13. UW-Whitewater
14. St. Mary's
15. Brandeis
16. Cal Lutheran
17. Augustana
18. UW-Platteville
19. UW-Superior
20. Calvin
21. Defiance
22. Wheaton IL
23. Amherst
24. LeTourneau
25. Lawrence

Note that Bob and I have nine of our top ten teams in common; in fact, we picked teams #1 thru #6 in identical order. After the top ten, though, there's a lot of deviation; he and I only agree on seven of the next fifteen teams, and two of the teams that he has at the top of this second group -- #11 Randolph-Macon and #12 Bridgewater State -- I didn't even pick at all.

I wouldn't be surprised if this trend holds for all of the pollsters: General consensus about the top ten, with the top six teams being the same on just about everyone's ballot (although the order might shift after #1 Wash U), but wide disparities regarding who belongs in the #10-#25 range, not to mention where they belong.

[Gregory Sager]

I am looking foward to McMurry's participating in the Lee Pfund Classic.

McMurry (defending champion of the ASC-West) opens with Ohio Northern, and then catches the winner/loser of the Wheaton/Trine game.

That tourney pits the CCIW, the MIAA, the ASC and the OAC.

I am very sorry that I am going to have to miss the Pfund for the first time in well over a decade. Not only would I enjoy seeing your Ex-Indians again, Ralph, but as you can see from my last post I'm pretty high on Ohio Northern this year, and since Trine is playing North Park on December 12 I'd love to get a sneak peek at Coach Harmon's Thunder. Alas, NPU is going to be playing in the River Forest Classic that weekend, nine stops further east on the Metra's UP-West line.

[Ralph Turner]

Thanks for the comment, Greg.

I have a meeting in Orlando that weekend, so I cannot slip up to Chicago for the game.

I hope that the tourney is a good one, and that the games continue the proud tradition of a quality tournament.

McMurry Sr point guard Robert Moreno has returned for his last year of eligibility.  I will be glad for those knowledgeable fans to watch him perform.

I think that he is an all-American calibre point guard, and I hope that his efforts that weekend will show what I think that he can do.

[David Collinge]

25 Ohio Wesleyan

That's one heckuva vote of confidence in Mike DeWitt's program.  I don't disagree; at least, I think they have the potential to be a pretty good team, although they might not start out that way.  But they did lose their two leading scorers and a pretty important role player, and even with those guys they fell pretty flat down the stretch last season, losing back-to-back home games to an undistinguished Allegheny squad to end their season.  They do bring back sophomore Pat Pellerite, a real stud who has the potential to be great, two more starters, another soph in Tim Brady who will be a starter and has a lot of upside, and a few good frosh; and DeWitt is a very good coach both with motivation and X's and O's.  So they could be good, and the program is definitely headed in the right direction.  But Top 25 might be a little bit of a stretch.

[Titan Q]

So they could be good, and the program is definitely headed in the right direction.  But Top 25 might be a little bit of a stretch.

I agree David...it's just that anyone I slotted in that #25 slot (whether Hope, Augustana, Wheaton, Calvin, whoever) was going to end up being a "stretch" in some way.

[Hugenerd]

Preseason Top 25 is up:

http://www.d3hoops.com/top25/

WashU unanimous #1

[Drake Palmer]

Greg-  UW-Superior??  

From my little MIAC corner of the world - I think Titan Q's ranking of St. Thomas at #10 is ok, but still a couple of slots too high.  With UST's losses to graduation, IMO, the #4 ranking by the D3 poll is definitely w-a-a-y too high.  

[Gregory Sager]

Greg-  UW-Superior?? 

The Yellowjackets are my sleeper team, Drake ... or one of them, at least. They return four starters from last season, plus two part-time starters, and they've added a 6'6, 220 junior forward named Marcus Helland who transferred in from Minnesota-Duluth, where he was the eighth man last season on a Bulldogs team that won 20 games on the D2 level. Among the returning starters are three who averaged in double figures in scoring last season: 6'6, 220 junior forward Jake Smith (17.4 ppg), junior shooting guard Dan Culy (13.9 ppg), and senior point guard Dwight Hill (12.4 ppg). The fourth returning starter is a 6'8, 240 center, Dan Roeder, so the Yellowjackets will be very physically formidable on the front line. I think that they have a serious shot at making some noise in the WIAC this season.

From my little MIAC corner of the world - I think Titan Q's ranking of St. Thomas at #10 is ok, but still a couple of slots too high.  With UST's losses to graduation, IMO, the #4 ranking by the D3 poll is definitely w-a-a-y too high.

I agree. My only quibbles with the top ten (I have plenty of quibbles with the bottom fifteen ) are that St. Thomas is too high and Wooster is too low.

[Wydown Blvd.]

Drake, Remember its a poll not a ranking... Because of the parity in the NCAA this year (as previously discussed on this board) voters may not have ranked St. Thomas #4 (or really any other than WashU) at their specific slot, but they received the 4th ranked amount of points....


This is an aside but basically use a concept behind standard deviation to consider the differences in the ballots. This is not completely mathematically correct because we dont know the actual ballots, but just something I tried my hand at:

Its interesting to compare the average ranking of each team by the voters to its actual ranking in the poll. For example Cal Lutheran averages a 18th ranking by voters, but is the 14th ranked team for a difference of about 4...You can see who benefits from a poll but may not benefit from a ranking. However those differences are less likely in this years pre-season poll than last years, which means most pollsters are getting the clumps of teams about right. Of course with the real standard deviation, a team such as this years Randolph Macon could be ranked about 10th by 10 voters (to get 149 points) and that would make any difference between the average rank and average points void.

2009 Preseason
                             Average Vote   Difference in Average Vote To Ranking
1   Washington U. (25)           1      0
2   John Carroll                  4.96      2.96
3   Guilford                          5.32      2.32
4   St. Thomas                  6      2
5   Richard Stockton         6.08      1.08
6   Franklin and Marshall          6.44      0.44
7   DeSales                10.04   3.04
8   Mass-Dartmouth          10.12   2.12
9   Wooster                10.28   1.28
10   UW-Stevens Point          10.44   0.44
11   Bridgewater State          11.92   0.92
12   Texas-Dallas             14.2      2.2
13   UW-Whitewater             14.44   1.44
14   Cal Lutheran             18.64   4.64
15   Wheaton (Ill.)             19.16   4.16
16   Whitworth                19.24   3.24
17   UW-Platteville             19.36   2.36
18   Puget Sound             19.52   1.52
19   Randolph-Macon          20.04   1.04
20   St. Mary's (Md.)          20.12   0.12
21   Centre                20.8      -0.2
22   Brandeis                21.08   -0.92
23   Hope                21.64   -1.36
24   UW-Oshkosh             21.76   -2.24
25   Amherst                22.2      -2.8

2008 Preseason          
1   Washington U. (23)         1.16      0.16
2   Augustana               3.2      1.2
3   Wheaton (Ill.)            6.32      3.32
4   UW-Whitewater (1)         6.48      2.48
5   St. Thomas            9.32      4.32
6   UW-Stevens Point         9.96      3.96
7   UW-Platteville (1)         11      4
8   Buena Vista            11.48   3.48
9   Brandeis               12.48   3.48
10   Mary Hardin-Baylor         14.04   4.04
11   Gettysburg               14.36   3.36
12   Ursinus               14.96   2.96
13   Centre               15.24   2.24
14   Randolph-Macon            17.4      3.4
15   Amherst               17.68   2.68
16   Rhode Island College         18      2
17   Elmhurst               18.52   1.52
18   Illinois Wesleyan            18.68   0.68
19   Lawrence               18.76   -0.24
20   Hope                  19.4      -0.6
21   Wooster               19.52   -1.48
22   Chicago               19.6      -2.4
23   Widener               19.84   -3.16
24   Virginia Wesleyan         19.96   -4.04
25   Elms                  22.24   -2.76

2007 Preseason    
1   Washington U. (15)          1.52      0.52
2   Amherst (8)             2.2      0.2
3   UW-Stevens Point (1)          3.24      0.24
4   Guilford                6.96      2.96
5   Augustana             7.64      2.64
6   Virginia Wesleyan          8.96      2.96
7   Brockport State (1)          10.84   3.84
8   Wooster                11.28   3.28
9   Rochester                12.6      3.6
10   Capital                12.64   2.64
11   Hope                13.12   2.12
12   Brandeis                13.92   1.92
13   Aurora                14.48   1.48
14   Mary Hardin-Baylor          16.48   2.48
15   Williams                17.68   2.68
16   Plattsburgh State          19.56   3.56
17   Calvin                19.6      2.6
18   Elmhurst                20      2
19   Puget Sound             20.4      1.4
20   Baldwin-Wallace          20.64   0.64
21   Lewis and Clark             20.68   -0.32
22   Keene State             20.88   -1.12
23   Mississippi College          21.32   -1.68
24   Stevens                21.6      -2.4
25   UW-Whitewater             22.08   -2.92

[John Gleich]

Greg-  UW-Superior??  

I thought the same to be honest...  They do have quite a bit back... but they have a new coach.  'Course, that might help for all we know, but they likely will have a bit of a learning curve.

Platteville has a ton back too... but they've got a new coach too.  Should be interesting (as always) to see what happens in the WIAC!

From my little MIAC corner of the world - I think Titan Q's ranking of St. Thomas at #10 is ok, but still a couple of slots too high.  With UST's losses to graduation, IMO, the #4 ranking by the D3 poll is definitely w-a-a-y too high.  

The point was made that they got the 4th highest number of points... but even if it doesn't seem like they should be that high, SOMEBODY needs to be that high.  Even if they're not as good as last year, they might be that much better than everyone else.

I'm not necessarily saying this... I don't have a clue who St. Thomas has coming back (though I am very interested to see what happens in the NCAA second round rematch between UST and UWSP)...  But they clearly are on many people's radars.


It should be noted that, historically, some very highly (projected) teams have flopped.  I don't have the stats in front of me right now... but I seem to remember the #2 team a few years in a row losing their first game, or 2 of 3 to start the year, or something like that.  They didn't completely flop, but Augie was slotted #2 last year in the preseason... and they didn't make the NCAA tournament.  UW Oshkosh was the same way 3-4 years ago, I think.