Top 25 talk

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Because others fell and the Top 25 went through a major shake-up!

[John Gleich]

Is there another conference in the country where a team can lose to the #1 team, then hit a halfcourt shot at the buzzer vs an unranked team and move up 10 spots in the poll?

Or beat 1 unranked WIAC team and 2 teams from the Nathcon and move up 40 spots?

I think it may more be a factor of those teams being on the radar and having others above them lose. 

Augie was already getting votes from some people, and they went 5-0.  Now, they beat two teams in Simpson and Beloit with 1 win and two teams in MacMurray and Knox with no wins... but they did tag Anderson with their only loss, and Anderson did beat Platteville (who was ranked at the time they were beaten and who is 4-2, with the other loss coming to Carthage).

Speaking of Carthage... they lost to ranked Whitewater by 1 and have beaten everybody else by double digits.  You could question how good those wins are... but they look better than Augie's... The teams Carthage beat are 9-12 (vs. 5-19 for Augie), and they beat them more convincingly.

IWU did lose to the #1 team and it took a prayer to beat Manchester, but, in they were the top ORV team in the preseason poll.  Their opponents were 11-10.

Those teams above are either undefeated or were beaten by teams they *should* have been beaten by... and they played tough in those games.  I don't think it necessarily takes into consideration how they beat the teams they were supposed to beat...  The pollsters have their own methods and most do not let those be known.

I would wonder more about Wheaton jumping Whitewater to come in at #5 than anything else.  Wheaton beat (handily) 3 opponents with combined 7-7 records, while Whitewater has beaten 5 at 9-16... but there are some common opponents.  Thus far, it's been only Loras, which UWW beat by 36 and Wheaton beat by 22.  However, UWW beat Carthage and Grinnell (both of whom WC will play in the next month). 


With all of this going on, there were 6 top 25 teams that lost at least twice and 9 more that lost once.  Now, whether those losses were "good" or "bad" is subjective (for example, Wooster, at 2-3, is still ranked #25, but two of their losses were to #2 John Carroll and #3 St. Thomas.  Even at preseason #9, they were supposed to lose those games.  The Albion loss is more questionable... but that's probably why they dropped.  They started slow last year too (1-4) and ended up 23-7, winning their conference by 3 games.  I'm just not sure if that speaks to Wooster becoming a better team by the end of the year or if they just played bad competition (they got beat in the second round of the NCAA tournament).

I think part of it is the regionality of D-III.  Voters don't have the ability (or, honestly, the time) to see all the teams in the country and, for better or for worse, there are certain teams and/or conferences that get lots of discussion on the message boards.  That very well may be why/how Carthage jumped from just 3 votes in the preseason to 155 in "week 1" and why Cal Lutheran dropped from 184 to 34 and St. Norbert gained just 80 instead of more. 

There were 7 teams that dropped from the rankings (and, of course, 7 teams that replaced them).  6 of them had rec'd votes in the preseaon rankings (Middlebury gained 131, an average of a little more than 5 places higher than last week's average, IWU gained 117, up 4.68, Carthage gained 152, up 6.08, Chapman gained 80, up 3.2, Elms gained 75, up 3, Augustana gained 88, up 3.5, and Wittenberg gained 102, up 4).  These averages don't mean the same for everybody... Carthage only had 3 points in the first poll, and the average is across all 25 voters, so they could have gone from 25 on 3 ballots (or 22 on one) to an average of just under 19 (over 25).  They had to be "on the radar" but that isn't clearly defined.  The voters only vote for their top 25... they don't tell us who they have on the radar (unless they separately and explicitly do so). 


As an aside... I don't have a vote, so this is just discussion, but St. Norbert and St. John's are both on my list of teams that I think are better than many receiving votes in the top 25.  Add UW La Crosse and UW River Falls to that (UWLaX is getting some votes this week and Norbert's is the top ORV team). 

[sac]

Because others fell and the Top 25 went through a major shake-up!

Chicago's 4-0 and received 2 votes, think they'd be top 25 if they were in the CCIW?

[John Gleich]

Because others fell and the Top 25 went through a major shake-up!

Chicago's 4-0 and received 2 votes, think they'd be top 25 if they were in the CCIW?

It's going to seem like they are over the next two weeks.  3 of their next 4 games are against CCIW teams. 

I think the issue with Chicago is their start last year.  To lose your first 12 and 14 of your first 15 is going to put a damper on things.  We all talked about it... and it still is a head-scratcher... but they need to redeem themselves on the floor a bit.  They're on their way towards doing just that, and they'll improve their place mightily (in the voters' eyes) with a win tomorrow in Wheaton.  If they knock off the Green Weanies Saturday, then they'll be well on their way to getting more than just a couple of votes from the voters.

[Gregory Sager]

I would wonder more about Wheaton jumping Whitewater to come in at #5 than anything else.  Wheaton beat (handily) 3 opponents with combined 7-7 records, while Whitewater has beaten 5 at 9-16... but there are some common opponents.  Thus far, it's been only Loras, which UWW beat by 36 and Wheaton beat by 22.  However, UWW beat Carthage and Grinnell (both of whom WC will play in the next month).

The rule of thumb for a lot of basketball people is that you don't pay much attention to the final winning margin if it's over 20 (unless it's a rout of ridiculous proportions, a la the Lincoln vs. Ohio State-Marion game of three years ago that had Posting Up in such an uproar). At some point comparing big winning margins becomes a matter of when the winning coaches call off the dogs by putting in the garbage-timers, whether or not the losing coach concedes and puts in his non-rotational subs (and, if so, when), etc., rather than gauging accurate benchmarks of relative talent.

Having said that, I'd probably keep UWW ahead of Wheaton if I had a ballot.

(for example, Wooster, at 2-3, is still ranked #25, but two of their losses were to #2 John Carroll and #3 St. Thomas.  Even at preseason #9, they were supposed to lose those games.  The Albion loss is more questionable... but that's probably why they dropped.  They started slow last year too (1-4) and ended up 23-7, winning their conference by 3 games.  I'm just not sure if that speaks to Wooster becoming a better team by the end of the year or if they just played bad competition (they got beat in the second round of the NCAA tournament).

That's been Wooster coach Steve Moore's annual m.o. in recent seasons, and I think it's a sound one: Open the year with as difficult of a non-conference slate as you can possibly put together, with an eye towards toughening up your team for March, because you know that your team isn't going to get challenged much in NCAC play by the likes of Oberlin, Kenyon, Earlham, Denison, etc.

Here's Wooster's records prior to the Scots' first NCAC contest over the past three years:

2009-10: 2-3
2008-09: 2-3
2007-08: 2-2

I wouldn't worry about the Scots, #25 or not.

I think part of it is the regionality of D-III.  Voters don't have the ability (or, honestly, the time) to see all the teams in the country and, for better or for worse, there are certain teams and/or conferences that get lots of discussion on the message boards.  That very well may be why/how Carthage jumped from just 3 votes in the preseason to 155 in "week 1" and why Cal Lutheran dropped from 184 to 34 and St. Norbert gained just 80 instead of more.

It's also a matter of the preseason poll being a glorified case of eeny-meeny-miney-mo, and the Week One poll not being much better in terms of accuracy and reflecting an extensive database of games played.

Chicago's 4-0 and received 2 votes, think they'd be top 25 if they were in the CCIW?

Two annual traditions by which you can set your watch: Me correcting people who refer to non-conference games as "preseason," and sac seeing CCIW black helicopters everywhere he looks.

Seriously, though, I would've given Chicago a nod at #24 or #25 if I had a ballot, and I'm not just saying that because I root for the Maroons. The win over Carleton was a good one; the Carlies have beaten preseason IIAC favorite Wartburg and preseason NAthC South favorite Benedictine. I suspect that you're right about the pollsters holding last year against Chicago, PS, and I've complained about that sort of thing more than once on Posting Up. Last year was last year; this year is this year.

However, to be fair to the pollsters, Chicago hasn't played any road games yet, and I can certainly understand holding off on them until they prove themselves against quality competition (i.e., Wheaton tomorrow night and Illinois Wesleyan on Saturday).

[Mr. Ypsi]

PS,

I like you, but you gotta lay off the 'green weanie' slurs (and, if you must do it, the usual spelling is 'green weenies'! )

Surprisingly, we prefer 'Titans'.  (Though 'Big Green Machine' kinda has a ring to it! )

[Gregory Sager]

(Though 'Big Green Machine' kinda has a ring to it! )

Chuck, Dale Carnegie would say that this is not how you win friends and influence people. He might even say that you can dispose of more unwanted weenies with honey than with vinegar.

[WUPHF]

It is interesting how it all works.  I noticed that Whitworth fell out of the rankings even though their only loss was versus UW-Stevens Point.  It does seem that if Whitworth had scheduled a few local teams, regardless of the quality, they would have, like Illinois Wesleyan, moved up in the rankings.  The problem is that they have only played two games.  I am not sure how you reconcile that issue.

[sac]

#19  Elmhurst

I'm sorry man, but any other team from any other conference that loses 3 in a row drops out of the poll.  This is quite ridiculous imo.    That isn't even taking into account being ranked ahead of Anderson, who just beat them 10 days ago.

6 teams from one conference receiving top 25 votes. 

I'm early this year Greg   


Here's the problem I have, last year the CCIW finished with 2 teams in the final top 25 poll, by all accounts the CCIW was as competitive and as good as ever.  This year the CCIW crowd seems to feel the league isn't as good as last year, yet here we are barely 2 weeks into the season and the poll is telling me 4 of the top 17 teams in D3 are from the CCIW.

[Mr. Ypsi]

#19  Elmhurst

I'm sorry man, but any other team from any other conference that loses 3 in a row drops out of the poll.  This is quite ridiculous imo.    That isn't even taking into account being ranked ahead of Anderson, who just beat them 10 days ago.

6 teams from one conference receiving top 25 votes. 

I'm early this year Greg   


Here's the problem I have, last year the CCIW finished with 2 teams in the final top 25 poll, by all accounts the CCIW was as competitive and as good as ever.  This year the CCIW crowd seems to feel the league isn't as good as last year, yet here we are barely 2 weeks into the season and the poll is telling me 4 of the top 17 teams in D3 are from the CCIW.

Actually, 4 of the top 21 (and only 1 of the top 15).

I, too, think Wheaton is probably over-ranked, and will withhold judgment on the other three.  My theory is that many voters not illogically) figure two or more CCIW teams are probably top-25, but it is not yet clear which teams.  So once you get down to 15 or so, a CCIW team with a good record, no bad losses, and preferably a good win, is likely to get some points.

Besides, what have Hope or Calvin done yet to deserve top 25 placement?   At this point it is still program history and strength, not 2009 results (unless disqualifyingly bad) that propels the poll.

(Though 'Big Green Machine' kinda has a ring to it! )

Chuck, Dale Carnegie would say that this is not how you win friends and influence people. He might even say that you can dispose of more unwanted weenies with honey than with vinegar.

Did this Carnegie kid have a decent jump shot?  Could he rebound?

I thought 'Big Green Machine' was kinda funny (especially as a Sparky Anderson fan, whom the Tigers got when the Big Red Machine foolishly canned him ).

[Ralph Turner]

I think that there is a real marketing opportunity here for George Foreman.

I can see it now,  The Big Green Weenie Grilling Machine!

[Mr. Ypsi]

I think that there is a real marketing opportunity here for George Foreman.

I can see it now,  The Big Green Weenie Grilling Machine!

You might want to shy away from marketing, Ralph.  Somehow grilling Green Weenies doesn't seem like a hit!  (Well, might have to make an exception for CardAlum! 8))

[TeeDub]

Wooster, at 2-3, drops to #25.

Wow...what do you have to do get out of the poll?

[Mr. Ypsi]

Wooster, at 2-3, drops to #25.

Wow...what do you have to do get out of the poll?

Not be the second-winningest school in d3 history?

Two of their three losses are to the #2 and #3 teams in the poll, so they were supposed to lose.  It is still so early in the season that program success and history is probably more propelling the poll than 2009 results (unless they are incredibly good or bad).

[sac]

Wooster, at 2-3, drops to #25.

Wow...what do you have to do get out of the poll?

Not be the second-winningest school in d3 history?

Two of their three losses are to the #2 and #3 teams in the poll, so they were supposed to lose.  It is still so early in the season that program success and history is probably more propelling the poll than 2009 results (unless they are incredibly good or bad).

I don't care who you've played, 2-3 teams shouldn't be ranked.