Top 25 talk

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

hungerd - as one voter... I can tell you I didn't "ignore" VWC's loss at home to EMU and only concentrate on the win over Guilford. I weighed their results with Eastern Mennonite's results and felt that VWC's resume was strong - by one spot - ove EM (#24 and #25 respectively on my ballot). This last week... I realized that I wasn't so sure with Eastern Mennonite even if their lose was to a non-D3 team. Thus... I took them off the poll. Though... consider this: I have 40 teams I am trying to push into 25 and I had other reasons to include other teams at this point. However, Eastern Mennonite is on my radar and will be back when they continue to prove they are a team to consider (I have jumped the gun in the past and regretted it... so forgive me if I am being careful).

[Hugenerd]

hungerd - as one voter... I can tell you I didn't "ignore" VWC's loss at home to EMU and only concentrate on the win over Guilford. I weighed their results with Eastern Mennonite's results and felt that VWC's resume was strong - by one spot - ove EM (#24 and #25 respectively on my ballot). This last week... I realized that I wasn't so sure with Eastern Mennonite even if their lose was to a non-D3 team. Thus... I took them off the poll. Though... consider this: I have 40 teams I am trying to push into 25 and I had other reasons to include other teams at this point. However, Eastern Mennonite is on my radar and will be back when they continue to prove they are a team to consider (I have jumped the gun in the past and regretted it... so forgive me if I am being careful).

I respect your opinion, but given only results previous to this week, what on VWU's resume popped out compared to Eastern Mennonite?  Their opponents records are very similar if you take out the Guilford win for VWU and the VWU for Eastern Mennonite.

From a previous post (as of December 8 ):

Combined record of opponents in wins minus Guilford win for VWU (for only d3 schools):  11-24
Combined record of opponents in wins minus VWU for Eastern Mennonite:  11-28

[magicman]

I am hoping MIT breaks into the polls for the first time ever this week.  They are off to their best start in school history at 11-0 and they were ranked 27th last week, just 4 points out of the top 25.  At least two teams ranked 21-26 have lost this week giving them both at least 2 losses(DeSales and Elms), so I am thinking it could be a real possibility.  Anyone more familiar with the poll have any thoughts?

I think MIT could get the #25 spot but wouldn't be surprised to see Wilmington jump over them and into the top 25 with that win over John Carroll. The only team that is likely to drop out of the top 25 is DeSales, leaving a single opening for a new addition.  It's possible the voters drop Wooster out because of their 3 losses and Richard Stockton's 3 losses to unranked teams will certainly cause them to tumble, but don't know if they fall into the ORV. MIT might get stuck at #26 for the time being.     

[Ralph Turner]

#4 at #5 and it is an OT loss for the road team?

I might flip #4 and #5 on my ballot (knowing that there is a return game).  But what else do you expect?

[Hugenerd]

I am hoping MIT breaks into the polls for the first time ever this week.  They are off to their best start in school history at 11-0 and they were ranked 27th last week, just 4 points out of the top 25.  At least two teams ranked 21-26 have lost this week giving them both at least 2 losses(DeSales and Elms), so I am thinking it could be a real possibility.  Anyone more familiar with the poll have any thoughts?

I think MIT could get the #25 spot but wouldn't be surprised to see Wilmington jump over them and into the top 25 with that win over John Carroll. The only team that is likely to drop out of the top 25 is DeSales, leaving a single opening for a new addition.  It's possible the voters drop Wooster out because of their 3 losses and Richard Stockton's 3 losses to unranked teams will certainly cause them to tumble, but don't know if they fall into the ORV. MIT might get stuck at #26 for the time being.     

Also, remember that MIT was only 4 points out of the top 25 and 6 points out of the 23rd spot in last weeks poll (#23 to #27 were seperated by 6 points, or an average of less than .25 poll positions per ballot).  Couple that with losses by Elms and UMD, and they may pick up more points from regional voters that they would not get from teams that lost in other regions.  To explain further, imagine if  last week someone had the NE region ranked: Midd, UMD, Amherst, Brandeis, Williams, Elms, MIT.  Elms and MIT were receiving about the same number of votes last week and presumably not everyone was ranking both Elms and MIT.  If there is more concensus on MIT being 6th or 5th in the region (depending on how far UMD falls with their second loss to an unranked team), and MIT is definitely ahead of Elms, MIT could get a share of the votes that Elms was getting.  Even if a small group of voters were to move MIT into a position that Elms was in last week (+10 points or so), it could mean that MIT could jump into the polls without VWU, Carthage or Wooster losing any votes.  Just another way of looking at it, obviously I am not sure of what will happen in reality.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

hungred - without trying to remember everything I considered in the last few weeks, I took the VWC win over Guilford as an edge over EM's win over VWC - both three spreads. Considering EM's recent history (one winnig record in recent history)... I slotted VWC higher. Remember, we are talkingt one spot on last week's ballot.

[John Gleich]

Nice work, Darryl!

Wonder how far Stevens Point will drop after losing at #5 Whitewater in OT.  Not sure if Randolph-Macon's and Guilford's wins will vault them above Point.  The Pointers were 60 and 102 points ahead of RMC and Guilford.

Whitewater was 68 points behind St. Thomas.  It's possible, IMO, that they could actually leapfrog St. Thomas.

I guess it could be possible that Point would stay at #4 with RMC and Guilford gaining a lot of points on them.  Or, Point could drop to 6th behind those two.

I think that UST and UWW will gain points and a position.  Point averaged being the #4 ranked team in the country at 550 points.  They could stay there...

#1 Wash U
#2 St Thomas
#3 Whitewater

The teams that could "catch" them are Randolph Macon (490) or Guilford (448).  #6 Macon averaged #6.4 and #7 Guilford was #8.08.  That means Guilford was a couple extra places behind (in terms of their average spot on peoples' polls.

So who is #4?  I think we can assume that John Carroll is going to drop out of the top 6 at least, so they're not in the running.  Point could stay there... but I think probably that Randolph Macon will get that spot.  I think Point will be #5 but won't have 525 points (how many points they would have if they averaged #5 on everybody's ballot).  Guilford will probably be #6.  From there it's up in the air.

[David Collinge]

Randolph-Macon struggled to a 72-65 TKO over Wooster tonight.  Wooster had the ball and just a two-point deficit as the clock entered the final minute, but committed three turnovers (of a holiday-spirited 19 on the night) in that final minute to seal the deal.  Macon shot just 30% and was outrebounded for the first time this season (they were +14.4 on average in their first seven games), but trailed only for a few seconds and gutted out the win like great teams do.  

I'm not sure what we learned tonight about either of these teams; on the one hand, Wooster's copious turnovers, many of which sounded "unforced," might suggest that they "should have" won, but on the other hand, R-MC refused to be headed and won despite probably not playing their best--it's hard to determine from a radio broadcast how much of R-MC's offensive struggles was due to Wooster defense and how much to just cold shooting.  In terms of common opponents, Macon joins John Carroll as teams that, on their home floors, gutted their way past Wooster in the final minute (as opposed to the shellacking UST put on Wooster at Wooster).  I guess if I thought that R-MC was a top 5 team before tonight, I'd still think so, and if I thought Wooster was a top 25 team before tonight, I'd still think so.

[Greek Tragedy]

Dan Tillema had a pretty nice dunk this past weekend when Stevens Point hosted Elmhurst. 

Dan Tillema's dunk made it to youtube.  Swampgoon gave me the news. 

We were sitting behind that basket, so it looked pretty awesome when it was coming right at you, but at this angle, it still doesn't look half bad! 

[KnightSlappy]

I guess if I thought that R-MC was a top 5 team before tonight, I'd still think so, and if I thought Wooster was a top 25 team before tonight, I'd still think so.

I don't see any way that Wooster could stay in the top 25 (for next week). I know UST, JCU, and RMC are all VERY good teams, but you can't lose to all 3 and Albion and hang on to a top 25 spot, especially when none of Woo's wins set my world on fire.

[ScotsFan]

I guess if I thought that R-MC was a top 5 team before tonight, I'd still think so, and if I thought Wooster was a top 25 team before tonight, I'd still think so.

I don't see any way that Wooster could stay in the top 25 (for next week). I know UST, JCU, and RMC are all VERY good teams, but you can't lose to all 3 and Albion and hang on to a top 25 spot, especially when none of Woo's wins set my world on fire.

Personally, I don't think David was trying to imply that Wooster deserves to remain in the top 25.  I think he was just stating his opinion that he believes Wooster is still a top 25 caliber team.  Despite their record, looking through the top 25, there are a lot of teams I would have a hard time believing would beat Wooster.  Also, how many teams in the top 25 would have fared any better than Wooster in this gauntlet of a schedule they have faced?  The only games that left me scratching my head were the Albion loss at Kresge (which also happens to be a house of horrors for Wooster BTW...) and the margin of defeat in the STU game.  That game appeared to be the perfect strom as I don't believe STU could have played much better and I don't believe that the Scots could have played much worse.  Outside of that, Wooster has been in both of their other 2 losses.  Losses that were on the road vs. top 10 opponents I might add.  And in each of those games, Wooster was very much in them until the dreaded turnover monster reared it's ugly head for the Scots.

In any case, David mentioned this on the NCAC board and that is, if Wooster can't find a way to cut down on their exorbitantly high number of turnovers they have been averaging this season, they are going to have trouble beating anyone.  R-MC feasted off of Wooster's turnovers last night to the tune of 22 points off of Wooster miscues.  And still, the Scots were only down 2 with just over a minute to go.  It doesn't matter who you're playing.  The bottom line is you're going to have trouble winning games when you basically gift your opponent 22 points off of turnovers.  And especially when those opponents are highly ranked... 

[Pat Coleman]

It does seem unlikely that Wooster will be in the next poll, though I agree they could be a Top 25 quality team.

As a reminder, the current poll does not include Monday's game.

[David Collinge]

I guess if I thought that R-MC was a top 5 team before tonight, I'd still think so, and if I thought Wooster was a top 25 team before tonight, I'd still think so.

I don't see any way that Wooster could stay in the top 25 (for next week). I know UST, JCU, and RMC are all VERY good teams, but you can't lose to all 3 and Albion and hang on to a top 25 spot, especially when none of Woo's wins set my world on fire.

Note my careful use of the word "if" in the above quoted passage.  IF Wooster was a top 25 team before last night, I don't really see why that should change.  They played and lost a close game on the court of #6, and that's what #23 is "supposed" to do. 

However, just for the sake of clarification of my personal opinion of Wooster's top 25 status:

Top 25 voting, especially in the dimly-lit world of D3, is one of those things that's easy to criticize but difficult to do.  Most of us have our own specialized pools of knowledge, beyond the periphery of which things can be very opaque.  For example, I could tell you that in no way, shape, or form is Wooster the 23rd best D3 team in the nation right now, but that doesn't mean I know who is, or whether Wooster is better or worse than #22 Mississippi College or #24 Carthage.

[Hugenerd]

It does seem unlikely that Wooster will be in the next poll, though I agree they could be a Top 25 quality team.

As a reminder, the current poll does not include Monday's game.

As I am sure you know, Pat, the new top 25 is out:

http://www.d3hoops.com/top25/

Wooster clinging to the #25 spot.  Wilmington makes a huge jump into the top 10.   Chicago also enters the top 25 for the first time this year, at #24.

MIT is ranked for the first time ever at #22.  I believe the theory I presented earlier is what happened (see below), as MIT gained many of the Elms votes and therefore jumped ahead of a bunch of teams even though those teams did not lose points.

I am hoping MIT breaks into the polls for the first time ever this week.  They are off to their best start in school history at 11-0 and they were ranked 27th last week, just 4 points out of the top 25.  At least two teams ranked 21-26 have lost this week giving them both at least 2 losses(DeSales and Elms), so I am thinking it could be a real possibility.  Anyone more familiar with the poll have any thoughts?

I think MIT could get the #25 spot but wouldn't be surprised to see Wilmington jump over them and into the top 25 with that win over John Carroll. The only team that is likely to drop out of the top 25 is DeSales, leaving a single opening for a new addition.  It's possible the voters drop Wooster out because of their 3 losses and Richard Stockton's 3 losses to unranked teams will certainly cause them to tumble, but don't know if they fall into the ORV. MIT might get stuck at #26 for the time being.    

Also, remember that MIT was only 4 points out of the top 25 and 6 points out of the 23rd spot in last weeks poll (#23 to #27 were seperated by 6 points, or an average of less than .25 poll positions per ballot).  Couple that with losses by Elms and UMD, and they may pick up more points from regional voters that they would not get from teams that lost in other regions.  To explain further, imagine if  last week someone had the NE region ranked: Midd, UMD, Amherst, Brandeis, Williams, Elms, MIT.  Elms and MIT were receiving about the same number of votes last week and presumably not everyone was ranking both Elms and MIT.  If there is more concensus on MIT being 6th or 5th in the region (depending on how far UMD falls with their second loss to an unranked team), and MIT is definitely ahead of Elms, MIT could get a share of the votes that Elms was getting.  Even if a small group of voters were to move MIT into a position that Elms was in last week (+10 points or so), it could mean that MIT could jump into the polls without VWU, Carthage or Wooster losing any votes.  Just another way of looking at it, obviously I am not sure of what will happen in reality.

[magicman]

MIT is ranked for the first time ever at #22.  

And hugenerd gets an early Christmas present!!! 8)