Top 25 talk

[Titan Q]

I am still not convinced about WashU.  Are they a top 10 team? Probably, but I think a 3-peat is highly unlikely with their inconsistent post play.

That's a pretty strong statement considering there does not seem to be any team out there that's a clear favorite to win it all.  If I'm making odds right now for the 2010 national championship, I don't think I'd have any team as more of a favorite than Wash U.  (I'd probably have Wash U in a group of 3 or 4 teams tied as "favorites.")

Wash U is not a "perfect team", and they've played a bit inconsistently throughout the year.  But 1) they're still 18-2 overall and 8-1 in the UAA, and 2) what team this year doesn't have a question mark or two?  I don't see anything out there that resembles the 2004 & 2005 UW-Stevens Point teams, or other powerhouses of the last decade.

I honestly don't think I'd make the "highly unlikely" comment about any current Top 10 team...let alone #3 Wash U, with a starting lineup full of kids who have been part of 3 Final Four trips in a row and 2 national titles.

[Hugenerd]

Well I disagree with you, I do not think they are going to win it all this year.  I didn't make any absolute comments, my usage of "I think" clearly suggests that this is my opinion. Whether they are the favorite in your eyes, the 3rd favorite, the 10th favorite, or whatever, I don't think they will win it this year.  They last couple years they have been very balanced teams with both solid play from their guards and a dominant post player.  They do have an 18-2 record, but they have looked really shaky getting there (as many other teams have also, as you suggested).  The UAA is down this year, they may not even get a single at-large bid depending on what happens with Brandeis.  WashU has no dominant inside presence, they don't get as many easy baskets as they have in the past, and even their all-american backcourt has looked  inconsistent this season.  The way they are playing I think they will get exposed at some point in the tourney, but again, that is only my opinion.  They may make it all the way to Salem, because they have shown they are the top of the midwest, but the last time checked WashU is the only team in the top 20 right now in that region.  For the record, I do think they are a top 5 team in the country, but I stand behind my opinion that they do not have the complete team that has what it takes to win it all.

[Mr. Ypsi]

I am still not convinced about WashU.  Are they a top 10 team? Probably, but I think a 3-peat is highly unlikely with their inconsistent post play.

That's a pretty strong statement considering there does not seem to be any team out there that's a clear favorite to win it all.  If I'm making odds right now for the 2010 national championship, I don't think I'd have any team as more of a favorite than Wash U.  (I'd probably have Wash U in a group of 3 or 4 teams tied as "favorites.")

Wash U is not a "perfect team", and they've played a bit inconsistently throughout the year.  But 1) they're still 18-2 overall and 8-1 in the UAA, and 2) what team this year doesn't have a question mark or two?  I don't see anything out there that resembles the 2004 & 2005 UW-Stevens Point teams, or other powerhouses of the last decade.

I honestly don't think I'd make the "highly unlikely" comment about any current Top 10 team...let alone #3 Wash U, with a starting lineup full of kids who have been part of 3 Final Four trips in a row and 2 national titles.

In defense of hugenerd (who is fully capable of defending himself*, I'm sure! ), for most of January WashU looked highly beatable.  While they won every match except Brandeis, nearly all were very close.

And except for rare years, ANY specific team is 'highly unlikely' to win it all.  I'm sure you remember 2006.

[Of course, I suppose it depends on your definition of 'highly unlikely'.]

And before I even hit 'post', I see that he has!

[Titan Q]

WashU has no dominant inside presence

They have the same two 4 & 5 players they had last year - Cam Smith and Zach Kelly.  (6-7 Tyler Nading was a small forward who did most of his damage from 15 feet.)  They won it last year without a "dominant inside presence"..after winning it the year before with possibly the best inside presence in D3 (Troy Ruths).

Wash U is ranked #1 in the Midwest Region and will most likely host a Sectional.  If they host, the Bears will be heavy favorite to get to Salem...and if they get to Salem, I sure wouldn't bet against them.

[Hugenerd]

They have the same two 4 & 5 players they had last year - Cam Smith and Zach Kelly.  (6-7 Tyler Nading was a small forward who did most of his damage from 15 feet.)  They won it last year without a "dominant inside presence"..after winning it the year before with possibly the best inside presence in D3 (Troy Ruths).

I understand what you mean about the post men, but you clearly knew I was talking about Nading.  He gave them a third real scoring option along with Thompson and Wallis.

Wash U is ranked #1 in the Midwest Region and will most likely host a Sectional.  If they host, the Bears will be heavy favorite to get to Salem...and if they get to Salem, I sure wouldn't bet against them.

Again, I would disagree with you here, I would bet against them in Salem (I already suggested they could get to Salem).  I am not saying they are a bad team, I just dont think they will win it all this year.

[KnightSlappy]

I am still not convinced about WashU.  Are they a top 10 team? Probably, but I think a 3-peat is highly unlikely with their inconsistent post play.

That's a pretty strong statement considering there does not seem to be any team out there that's a clear favorite to win it all.  If I'm making odds right now for the 2010 national championship, I don't think I'd have any team as more of a favorite than Wash U.  (I'd probably have Wash U in a group of 3 or 4 teams tied as "favorites.")

Wash U is not a "perfect team", and they've played a bit inconsistently throughout the year.  But 1) they're still 18-2 overall and 8-1 in the UAA, and 2) what team this year doesn't have a question mark or two?  I don't see anything out there that resembles the 2004 & 2005 UW-Stevens Point teams, or other powerhouses of the last decade.

I honestly don't think I'd make the "highly unlikely" comment about any current Top 10 team...let alone #3 Wash U, with a starting lineup full of kids who have been part of 3 Final Four trips in a row and 2 national titles.

In defense of hugenerd (who is fully capable of defending himself*, I'm sure! ), for most of January WashU looked highly beatable.  While they won every match except Brandeis, nearly all were very close.

And except for rare years, ANY specific team is 'highly unlikely' to win it all.  I'm sure you remember 2006.

[Of course, I suppose it depends on your definition of 'highly unlikely'.]

And before I even hit 'post', I see that he has!

I agree with the Mr. Y here. Even if you give them good odds to win each individual tournament game, they still face comparatively long odds at winning all of their games. In normal years, even a heavy favorite may only have 15-20% chance at winning them all.

[Titan Q]

Remind me not to get in a debate involving odds again with a college Statistics professor, a guy who runs D3 RPI calculations, and an self-proclaimed "hugenerd"!

[WUPHF]

Well I disagree with you, I do not think they are going to win it all this year. 

You also didn't think Washington University would win on the road against Emory, but we know how that turned out. 

The team struggled in January, in part because of injuries, but have played well enough since mid-January.  If you have not watched them play lately, it is time to check them out.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Remind me not to get in a debate involving odds again with a college Statistics professor, a guy who runs D3 RPI calculations, and an self-proclaimed "hugenerd"!

It's the remake of Revenge of the Nerds!

[Hugenerd]

Well I disagree with you, I do not think they are going to win it all this year.  

You also didn't think Washington University would win on the road against Emory, but we know how that turned out.  

The team struggled in January, in part because of injuries, but have played well enough since mid-January.  If you have not watched them play lately, it is time to check them out.

That was more a function of me being too high on Emory after they destroyed Chicago by 25+, but Emory is always a pretty tough place to play so that was a good win.  I actually watched them play against Rochester this past weekend.  AT played the best game he has in quite a while(possibly the entire season) and carried them, if he begins to play like that consistently, they would obviously be a much better team (although no one else played particularly well in that game). However, that is the only time he has shot over 50% from the field since early December and only the 4th time this season.  I dont think they are going to get that much production from their backcourt consistently because teams will try to take that away.  Until someone else can step up and show they are a legit 3rd option that can carry the team for a game or two, I stick to my position that they won't win it all.

[nwhoops1903]

Wash U is ranked #1 in the Midwest Region and will most likely host a Sectional.  If they host, the Bears will be heavy favorite to get to Salem...and if they get to Salem, I sure wouldn't bet against them.

VERY true.  No smart person would want to play WU there in March.

[Hugenerd]

MIT pulls out a tough conference game tonight, 59-52, over Clark.  Noel Hollingsworth scored 20 points on 8-10 shooting and 11 rebounds for MIT.  Mitchell Kates had a big game at the point, scoring 13 (4-4 shooting) and really did a good job dictating play for MIT.

Congrats to Coach Larry Anderson for his 200th career win (all at MIT), he is the first 200 win coach in the history of the program.

[pbrooks3]

Having chimed in that Wash U might have enough to get over the hump again for a 3-peat, I still am high on Guilford despite their blowout home loss last night.  They had a bad night from behind the arc and Eastern Mennonite had a good one.  When Guilford is able to have their normal balance from the perimeter and the post, they are capable of doing a number similar to their post-season run of 2009.  I won't be surprised if Sanborn and the Quakers win it all. 

[Hugenerd]

ODAC has a lot of good teams this year, I wouldnt be surprised to see one of those four teams make a run at the title either.

[r-buddy]

Interesting discussion about Wash U's chances in March.  It is probably true that the guys playing in Tyler Nading's position are not his equal in all around skills--neither have the experience he did as a senior--but they do contribute significantly to this year's team, and both are capable of scoring in double digits.  What Wash U does have over last year's team is 5 players who have been at this for 4 years and know what it takes to win it all.  They have always been able to maintain their poise, they are patient, they are unselfish, and they play good defense.  Those are important ingredients in a tournament.  No team is likely to dominate this year, in my opinion.  Wash U has a good shot at it, but so do several others, and any of them could stumble with a bad game.