Top 25 talk

[hasanova]

Speaking of Sean Wallis, I was privileged to see him play in Salem last March.  He's a great player.  Doesn't this scenario give Washington University (and other DIII schools that offer postgraduate degrees) a bit of an advantage over fellow institutions that only offer a Bachelor's degree?

[Hugenerd]

Speaking of Sean Wallis, I was privileged to see him play in Salem last March.  He's a great player.  Doesn't this scenario give Washington University (and other DIII schools that offer postgraduate degrees) a bit of an advantage over fellow institutions that only offer a Bachelor's degree?

There is a 5th year senior at MIT this year that is in the same boat as Wallis (he has a medical redshirt year).  However, instead of doing a 1 year grad degree, he came back to finish up a second undergrad major.  Obviously MIT offers grad degrees, but this is just an example that you can come back for a 5th year without having to go to grad school.

[Pat Coleman]

And that happens all the time too.

[All-around]

Thanks for clarifying.

[nwhoops1903]

William Patterson 20 game win streak is broken by Rutgers-Newark 55-46 http://www2.sidearmstats.com/rutgers/mbball/

EMU all over Va Wes 88-68
and Guilford wins as well 91-80

This result provides me with my weekly Whitworth promotion.  Longest current winning streak and tied with WP for longest of the season at 20 wins.  WW moves up to 7th, thank you voters, after 2 home wins.  WW plays tonight and then closes out conference schedule Sat at Linfield.  WW has won the NWC and has clinched the #1 seed in the 4 team tournament on the 25th and 27th. 

I agree with those who feel Williams should be #1.  Winning 2 games on the road convincingly is all they COULD do and they did.  I don't think a player getting hot or a team on a roll should be so influential.  If it was, I would expect to see my team getting some #1 votes!  Wash U is a very good team and no one would argue against them being #2.  A spot they deserve.


Conference play really makes OWP and OOWP brutal for some teams.  I don't know how it could be adjusted to not penalize parity in a conference.

As for MOV I only look at "largest lead" and and then make sure it wasn't in the last 5 minutes.  When I see a LL of 31 at the 12 minute mark, I pretty much know right then, how much better a team was on that night than their opponent.  Same goes for a team with a LL of 15 in the first half but loses by 15.  That team has some problems.

[Pat Coleman]

Everyone who throws out the fact that Williams made two short road trips and won games might want to look at what Wash U did last week.

[nescac1]

Sorry, but I don't see wins at Trinity and at Amherst by a combined 38 points (and the Amherst margin was 30 before the last two minutes of garbage time) as less impressive than wins at NYU and at Brandeis by a combined 18 points.  And again, Wash U. was behind Williams and leapfrogged then based on that week.  But I do agree the two have pretty even resumes, I just think folks have discounted Williams a bit all year, even in the preseason, and aren't aware that they are far more talented, healthy, familiar / on board with the system, and cohesive than they were the preceeding few years.   

[BUBeaverFan]

Looking at history maybe it is not in anyone's best interest to be ranked #1 going into the DIII tourney.

[Ralph Turner]

Sorry, but I don't see wins at Trinity and at Amherst by a combined 38 points (and the Amherst margin was 30 before the last two minutes of garbage time) as less impressive than wins at NYU and at Brandeis by a combined 18 points.  And again, Wash U. was behind Williams and leapfrogged then based on that week.  But I do agree the two have pretty even resumes, I just think folks have discounted Williams a bit all year, even in the preseason, and aren't aware that they are far more talented, healthy, familiar / on board with the system, and cohesive than they were the preceeding few years.   

The "we don't get no respect" argument does not wear well on Williams.

They were very quickly recognized as being better than a 17-9 team that they were in 2009.

By 6 games (week #2), they were in the top 25 at #20.  The next week they were at #12, and #10 by week #4.  When you are in the Top 10 by that point, you are just waiting for attrition.

Massey Ratings has their schedule at #197.  That is worse than Chapman's schedule rating at #158.

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb

That makes me think that the voters are giving them considerable respect.

[ephoops]

Everyone who throws out the fact that Williams made two short road trips and won games might want to look at what Wash U did last week.

Pat

The Ephs victory at Amherst on Friday should not be discounted because they only traveled 90 minutes by bus.

You can throw respective records out the window when these two teams play.  Friday's game had a lot of significance for both teams.  Williams was going for its first sweep of Amherst since 1996.  It was also trying to repeat as outright Little Three champs with a 4-0 record for the first time in a long time.  The Williams game at Amherst is always a battle and very emotionally charged for both teams.

Moreover, playing at Trinity less than 24 hours after the Amherst game is always tough as well.

[ephoops]

They were very quickly recognized as being better than a 17-9 team that they were in 2009.

You need to take into account that last year's team was learning an entirely new system with the arrival of Mike Maker.  There were some growing pains last year...  Given the talent level, they arguably underperformed  a bit...

Massey Ratings has their schedule at #197.  That  is worse than Chapman's schedule rating at #158.

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb

We don't need no stinkin' Masssey ratings...

[John Gleich]

William Patterson 20 game win streak is broken by Rutgers-Newark 55-46 http://www2.sidearmstats.com/rutgers/mbball/

EMU all over Va Wes 88-68
and Guilford wins as well 91-80

This result provides me with my weekly Whitworth promotion.  Longest current winning streak and tied with WP for longest of the season at 20 wins.  WW moves up to 7th, thank you voters, after 2 home wins.  WW plays tonight and then closes out conference schedule Sat at Linfield.  WW has won the NWC and has clinched the #1 seed in the 4 team tournament on the 25th and 27th. 



I agree with those who feel Williams should be #1.  Winning 2 games on the road convincingly is all they COULD do and they did.  I don't think a player getting hot or a team on a roll should be so influential.  If it was, I would expect to see my team getting some #1 votes!  Wash U is a very good team and no one would argue against them being #2.  A spot they deserve.


Conference play really makes OWP and OOWP brutal for some teams.  I don't know how it could be adjusted to not penalize parity in a conference.

As for MOV I only look at "largest lead" and and then make sure it wasn't in the last 5 minutes.  When I see a LL of 31 at the 12 minute mark, I pretty much know right then, how much better a team was on that night than their opponent.  Same goes for a team with a LL of 15 in the first half but loses by 15.  That team has some problems.

I'm doing this on my phone so I can't format like I would normally... but I wanted to address the separate points you made.

1. I'm going to be very interested to see the success that WW has in the NCAA tournament.   I've been pretty high on them this year, especially since they handled Whitewater, but they have played a ton of their games close to home.  One of their two losses was to Pomona  Pitzer, on a long "road" trip and though they rebounded against a good McKendree team the next night and haven't lost since (after making some changes as our NWC friends have told us), they're going to have some very long trips ahead of them against very good competition.  Even if they would host the Sectional, they have to fly all the way across the country and win 2 games in Salem.  Point did it in 03-04, but they're the only team that has... and they really only flew from WI west and back, then east.  not sure how different it would be, and there's definitely time to reacclimate, but Neb Wesleyan is the team from the farthest West that's made it to Salem, and they didn't win (lots of other possible factors there, they weren't necessarily the best team, etc).

2. I think when your defending champion (2x in this case) puts themselves in a position for another championship  based on their play, then there comes a point to where they should have the top spot until they're unseated.  B/c Wash U is in a position to snag the UAA bid (if they haven't  already) then they've earned the top spot.  It's up to another team to take it from them on the court.

3.  All teams' OWP and OOWP will matriculate closer to .500 as they play more conference games.  This will be magnified in a conference like the MIAC and have less of a factor in conferences like the NESCAC by virtue of there being more or less conference games respectively.  The MIAC plays 20 games, so they only have 5 non-con opportunities.  Unless your conference is dominant (like the WIAC this year) you have a better chance of improving your OWP by playing tough out-of-conference games.  you then will be rewarded when those teams do well in their own conferences (ex, Stevens Point playing St. Thomas  and Whitworth... as those teams win, it has a positive impact on Point's SOS).  Having your conference do really  well is the best way to improve your OWP though... if the baseline of the teams you'll play the majority of your games  against is high, then the SOS # starts high even before those inevitable conference losses rear their normalizing effects.

Interestingly, parity won't  matter in terms of the OWP at all... it can only affect the team's winning percentage.  I say this because there are a set number of conference wins ans losses that will occur each year.  For example, each WIAC team plays 16 games and there are 9 WIAC schools.  so there are 9*16/2=72 wins and 72 losses that will be added to the OWP.  Only the team that we're looking at will be affected by their losses... if a team goes 16-0 and everyone else goes 7-9, it would have the same effect as a team going 16-0 and there being a perfect distribution (16-0,14-2,...,0-16).  the average is still 8 opponents going 7-9.

Now, if your team doesn't go 16-0, then every loss you get will equate to a win for a conference opponent... but the effect that this one win will have on the OWP is exceedingly small compared to the affect that the loss would have on a team's win %.

[WUPHF]

The Ephs victory at Amherst on Friday should not be discounted because they only traveled 90 minutes by bus.

I think what he is saying is that you should look at what Washington University did over the weekend which was travel from St. Louis to Boston on Friday afternoon, play a 17-4 team that was one win away from being ranked for the rest of the year, spend Saturday traveling from Boston to New York, practicing, and studying in a hotel, and then get up for a Sunday morning game against a 15-6 regionally ranked conference opponent.

Rivalry game or no, the two schedules over the last week are not equal.

[Hugenerd]

PointSpecial,

I actually do not think head-to-head counts in OWP calculations.  I think those are eliminated before the OWP numbers are calculated.  Meaning if Team A is 3-0 against Team B, and Team Bis 22-3, for purposes of OWP calculation of Team A, Team B is 22-0.  I think that is right but can Pat or someone verify this?

[WUPHF]

2. I think when your defending champion (2x in this case) puts themselves in a position for another championship based on their play, then there comes a point to where they should have the top spot until they're unseated.  B/c Wash U is in a position to snag the UAA bid (if they haven't already) then they've earned the top spot.  It's up to another team to take it from them on the court.

Washington University needs only one more win, with two home games and one away game remaining, to wrap up another UAA conference championship.