Top 25 talk

[KnightSlappy]

PointSpecial,

I actually do not think head-to-head counts in OWP calculations.  I think those are eliminated before the OWP numbers are calculated.  Meaning if Team A is 3-0 against Team B, and Team Bis 22-3, for purposes of OWP calculation of Team A, Team B is 22-0.  I think that is right but can Pat or someone verify this?

You are correct. OWP does not include results against yourself (you don't hurt your SOS by winning games).

OOWP, on the other hand, does include results against yourself.

[Pat Coleman]

Everyone who throws out the fact that Williams made two short road trips and won games might want to look at what Wash U did last week.

Pat

The Ephs victory at Amherst on Friday should not be discounted because they only traveled 90 minutes by bus.

Wash U's victory at Brandeis on Friday should not be discounted because Williams traveled only 90 minutes by bus.

[John Gleich]

PointSpecial,

I actually do not think head-to-head counts in OWP calculations.  I think those are eliminated before the OWP numbers are calculated.  Meaning if Team A is 3-0 against Team B, and Team Bis 22-3, for purposes of OWP calculation of Team A, Team B is 22-0.  I think that is right but can Pat or someone verify this?

You are correct. OWP does not include results against yourself (you don't hurt your SOS by winning games).

OOWP, on the other hand, does include results against yourself.

Well, the fact still remains that if you go 16-0 against the other 8 teams in a 9 team league, on average, they will still go just 56-56 as  "rest of the conference," and even if your loss doesn't "help" your OWP, it will hurt your win% and OOWP (Win % affected by a remarkably greater factor). 

[Marty Peretz]

People who harp on Wash.U. not having a win over a ranked opponent are omitting key facts. First of all, two of Wash.U's best wins came against teams that are currently 26th and 27th and were both ranked last week (Deis and IWU). So, sure the Bears don't have a win against a currently ranked team, but leaving out that point proves a tad deceiving. Secondly, Wash.U. beat Wheaton at a time when both squads were ranked (8th and 15th, I believe). The reason IWU, Augie, and Wheaton are no longer ranked are because they are playing in a highly competitive CCIW in which teams beat up on each other every single night.

Williams, meanwhile, played an absolute joke of a non conference schedule. Williams fans say their win over Middlebury is reason enough that they should be ranked number 1, but look at the Panthers' schedule. Their best non conference win is against a Plattsburgh team that has seven losses. I'm not here to say that Williams or Midd are weaker teams than Wheaton or IWU, BUT I think there is something to be said for the nonconference schedules played by Wash.U. as opposed to those played by Williams and Midd. I'm not knocking the Nescac, but I've seen a good deal of Nescac basketball this year and I can tell you it's considerably weaker than what we're witnessing in the WIAC, CCIW, and ODAC.

So, in short, Wash.U has at least three top 30 out of conference wins, while Williams has none. Williams does have a nice win against Middlebury, but again, that Middlebury squad has A LOT to prove to people, seeing as how they've effectively beaten no one (and no, I'm not at all sold on Colby) and based on their NCAA choke last March. I will gladly eat my words if both Nescac squads make serious noise against quality opponents in the tourney, but right now I am reasonably convinced that outside of Deis, Williams, and Midd, there isn't a team in that region that could compete night in night out with any of the top three of four teams in the three conferences mentioned earlier.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

It's a big-time down year for the NESCAC, although I'm not sure that makes it a down year for Williams.

Despite the arguments over scheduling, my guess is that WashU's jump over Williams to #1 has more to do with the fact that WashU (the pre-season #1 and two time defending champ) has actually been healthy and productive for a couple of consecutive weeks.

It's a team the voters thought was better before and is now beginning to restore confidence.  This just makes sense to me, given the way the polls have worked for all the years I've been watching them.

Every one of these teams will get to prove themselves in the tournament.

[Hugenerd]

I'm not knocking the Nescac, but I've seen a good deal of Nescac basketball this year and I can tell you it's considerably weaker than what we're witnessing in the WIAC, CCIW, and ODAC.

You are absolutely "knocking the NESCAC". That is a highly subjective statement.  I have seen a bunch of CCIW games online and could make the inverse statement (but I would not, because it is a ridiculous statement).  I feel the CCIW and UAA are down this year, but would not say they are "considerably" weaker than any conference in the country. .  And how would you define "considerably weaker".  Are the teams at the top of the conference much better than those in the NESCAC (rankings say no), are the teams at the bottom much better than those in the NESCAC (I highly doubt that).  Maybe those conferences are a team or two deeper in terms of top teams, but that is also highly debateable.

By the way, what does a good deal entail?  Have you seen 1 game?  Did you buy the Williams pay per view package?  How much ODAC and CCIW basketball have you seen?  Have you seen every team on multiple occasions to form a true opinion about these teams to make such a concrete statement.

So, in short, Wash.U has at least three top 30 out of conference wins, while Williams has none.

A) Since when is Brandeis out of conference?

B) Wheaton isnt ranked in the top 30.

So, in short, Wash.U has at least three top 30 out of conference wins, while Williams has none. Williams does have a nice win against Middlebury, but again, that Middlebury squad has A LOT to prove to people, seeing as how they've effectively beaten no one (and no, I'm not at all sold on Colby) and based on their NCAA choke last March. I will gladly eat my words if both Nescac squads make serious noise against quality opponents in the tourney, but right now I am reasonably convinced that outside of Deis, Williams, and Midd, there isn't a team in that region that could compete night in night out with any of the top three of four teams in the three conferences mentioned earlier.

Seriously?  

A) WashU isnt in one of the three conferences you mentioned earlier either.

B) That is a ridiculous statement to make about an entire region.  What does night in and night out mean?  I dont think the top teams in any of those conferences have shown the can bring it "night in and night out".  Carthage - lost to 13-9 Wilkes and 15-8 Calvin + a conference home game.  IWU lost to 11-11 Chicago.  Whitewater (Eau Claire, Stout, River Falls) and Stevens Point (Stout) both have at least one loss to a lesser team in conference.  And in the ODAC, the same has happened, EMU lost to Southern VA, Bridgewater (VA), and Hampden-Sydney.   I am not trying to say anything bad about any of those team, I think they are all very good teams, but I just think the "night in and night out" argument you are making is very porous.

C) All you make are general statements about your opinion.  Even when you try to use "facts" to back up your statements, you stretch the truth (ie, WashU only has 1 win over a top 30 non-conference team, not at least 3).  If you are going to make very subjective statements, dont try to support them with "facts" that are not true.  

One can skew this argument any way they want.  I think all nescac1 was arguing was that it didnt make sense that WashU jumped Williams this week based on what happened last week.  Williams won two blowouts, so why would any team jump them.  That is the only reason why any NESCAC supporter is upset right now (which I am not).  If WashU were 2 and Williams 3 last week, there would be no big argument right now.  I think the only thing your post establishes is that you really dont have any good idea what you are talking about (in my opinion of course).

[nwhoops1903]

I guess if you "knock" on the NESCAC door, it WILL be answered.  I fear that huge calculator.

[Hugenerd]

I guess if you "knock" on the NESCAC door, it WILL be answered.  I fear that huge calculator.

Im not even a NESCAC supporter, but what got me going is that if you are going to try to make an argument in order to make broad sweeping conclusions, you may want to use real facts instead of made up ones.

The argument made a bunch of excuses for facts he did not like (ie "The reason IWU, Augie, and Wheaton are no longer ranked are because ...), but didnt provide any real support to solidify points he was trying make against the NESCAC or the NE (other than anecdotal), except for Williams' SOS (which was brought up in a subjective manner by saying "Williams....played an absolute joke of a non conference schedule").  Also, it is one thing to argue one position place in a poll, but to try to completely dismiss the #6 ranking of a team I dont think is substantiated (Middlebury [has] ...effectively beaten no one). 

[Marty Peretz]

Hugenerd, your analysis would have much more credibility if you didn't style yourself to be an objective observer and acknowledged that you have an anti-Wash.U bent. I am at least candid about my affiliations, so any analysis that touches upon WU-related subject matter admittedly is conducted with Red and Green fogged glasses. Similarly, you should be more forthcoming about your antipathy toward WU. Your knocks are seldom overt, but any reader of these boards knows that you have frequently raised doubts about the Bears despite their success.

If Williams won the 'CAC in a tight contest or if Midd upset them, I'd give the league more credibility, but if you go through conference and no one gets a game under double figures, it probably says something about the lack of parity in your conference as much as it does about the quality of your squad. I've seen Williams play and they are very good. Top 10, probably top 5 team no doubt. But to say they're better than Wash.U. is rather silly.

Also, I never said the UAA was good this year. I just noted that the Bears have played quality opponents out of conference whereas Williams hasn't (save for R and M whom they lost to).

[toad22]

I'm one Eph fan who is happy with Williams at #2. I'm sure that any of the top 15 teams (at least) could beat any of the other top 15 on a given night. Wash U has 2 nat'l champoinships in a row, so if there is any doubt, I would certainly vote for them at #1. The one huge advantage that Williams has over any Williams team of the past (including the 4 that have made it to Salem and the one that won it all) is the fact that they shoot it so well. In my 20 years of watching D3 hoops carefully, I have never seen a better shooting team. That certainly doesn't mean they will go deep into the tournement, but it does mean that no D3 coach wants to play them.

[magicman]

I guess if you "knock" on the NESCAC door, it WILL be answered.  I fear that huge calculator.

It's not the size of the calculator, it's the hugenerd that operates it!

[magicman]

An unrelated topic:
Without spoiling it for anyone, I'm watching the Olympic Women's downhill live on a Canadian station since NBC won't be showing it until prime time tonight. About half the field has went down the mountain and the USA has had a couple of good runs so far. Would be worth watching tonight. If you would like to know what's happened so far you can send me a personal message and I'll let you know.

[magicman]

Marty,
Not trying to get into the middle of your discussion with hugenerd, but I don't think he has an obvious bias against Wash U. After all he did play ball and graduate from a UAA school.   

[Hugenerd]

Hugenerd, your analysis would have much more credibility if you didn't style yourself to be an objective observer and acknowledged that you have an anti-Wash.U bent. I am at least candid about my affiliations, so any analysis that touches upon WU-related subject matter admittedly is conducted with Red and Green fogged glasses. Similarly, you should be more forthcoming about your antipathy toward WU. Your knocks are seldom overt, but any reader of these boards knows that you have frequently raised doubts about the Bears despite their success.

If Williams won the 'CAC in a tight contest or if Midd upset them, I'd give the league more credibility, but if you go through conference and no one gets a game under double figures, it probably says something about the lack of parity in your conference as much as it does about the quality of your squad. I've seen Williams play and they are very good. Top 10, probably top 5 team no doubt. But to say they're better than Wash.U. is rather silly.

Also, I never said the UAA was good this year. I just noted that the Bears have played quality opponents out of conference whereas Williams hasn't (save for R and M whom they lost to).

(As magicman pointed out) Marty, you apparentely havent read the boards long enough.  I defended WashU and the UAA this preseason heavily against the CCIW contingent on the "Ranking D3 BBall Conferences" board (you can go there and look if you like).  The main argument I was making this preseason  was based on WashUs championships and their dominance in the midwest the last few years. You can also go back on the UAA boards the last few years and see that I have been a huge supporter of UAA basketball. I have no anti-WashU bias.  I played in the UAA in the 2000s.   My argument against WashU this year has only been formed because the 5 times I watched them online, they played not to the level I expected to see and Thompson played very subpar for about 11 games straight from the beginning of December to about the beginning of February.  Also, on numerous occasions I have said that WashU is a much better and different team with Thompson playing the way he has 3 of the last 4.  So again, please check your facts before drawing conclusions.

You are also missing the main point of all these arguments is not that WashU is ranked ahead of Williams (which is fine by me), it is why they jumped Williams in the polls this week based on the previous rankings and results.  As I said in my last post, if WashU was 2 last week and Willliams 3, there would be no argument right now.  And by the way, you guys (I am assuming the WashU and midwest contingent) can continue to ding my karma all you want, it is not going to disuade me from responding to these posts (I think I am -5 since this conversation started).

As another example, I have absolutely no affiliation with the ODAC, but have been extremely high on EMU, even back to week 1 when they werent ranked and I made several posts saying they were being undervalued (obviously now they are not).  The observations I have made about WashU this season are of the same manner, based on my opinion of what I have seen this season.  Don't worry, I am not out to get anyone.

[John Gleich]

The fact of the matter is that we don't know how the voters changed their votes except that 23 of them switched from Guilford to either Wash U or Williams.  We can't see how the votes changed on an individual level... we can only look at the sun of the poll points and figure out the average.  It's true that Wash U picked up more points than Williams, but it may have been from low voters jumping Wash U an extra place, yet still below Williams..  In the same way, voters who had Wash U higher may not have moved Williams that extra place... and you have the 16 point discrepancy.

This poll is for entertainment purposes.  While we hold it in high regard and think it to be more accurate in a subjective way than other "rankings" like the regional rankings (that make a subjective decision based on supposedly objective data), it is just 25 peoples' opinion.  It's a very informed opinion and as I said, we think highly of it, but it is just an opinion.  The teams would need to play to determine who is better, and we may just get that opportunity.  I won't even go near any discussions of if the game result would determine the better team or not... (I'm sure there are detractors out there!)