Top 25 talk

[Titan Q]

Reputation votes usually don't turn out so good!

But not always. This one puzzles me.

#18 John Carroll 70
#5 Carthage 69

(at Carthage)

I listened to the Carthage/John Carroll game and was really surprised Carthage lost.  Carthage led by 12 at the half and it seemed like the Red Men would run away with it.  But in the 2nd, the Streak's full-court pressure gave CC a lot of trouble.  

Carthage is a tremendous halfcourt team.  PG Steve Djurickovic is just so dangerous with the ball in his hand, where he can penetrate and score or dish, or make jumpshots from anywhere on the floor.  But if you can make other Carthage players handle the ball, and speed up the tempo, you change that dynamic.  You take away Carthage's strength and make them play a style they are not that comfortable with.  Now, not every team has the personnel to play that way vs the Red Men...Carthage would beat Grinnell by 50 probably.  But John Carroll has the athletes to apply full-court pressure effectively at a high-level in D3.

This game definitely qualified as an "upset" to me, but I don't think John Carroll's preseason votes can be called "reputation votes", Pat (I think that is what you're saying?)...

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John Carroll (21-7 overall, 15-3 OAC/Great Lakes) - Round of 32, lost to Guilford[/b][/u]
Starters Returning: (5) G Corey Shontz, 6-1 JR (14.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 4.0 apg), F/C Matt Crozier, 6-7 JR (12.6 ppg, 7.4 rpg), G Joey Meyer, 5-11 JR (8.3 ppg, 1.9 rpg), G Michael Hartnett, 6-2 JR (4.9 ppg, 1.4 rpg), F Patrick Sweeney, 6-2 JR (2.8 ppg, 2.3 rpg)

Starters Lost: none

Top Returning Reserve: F Maurice Haynes, 6-4 SR (8.6 ppg, 4.3 apg)
----------

Here is the Carthage/JCU box:

http://www.jcusports.com/custompages/mbball/2011/jcmb1103.htm

The Blue Streaks have a bunch back from 21-win team that came within 3 points of knocking off Guilford in Greensboro last year in the tournament.

I think "reputation votes" are when a perennially strong program gets preseason votes without returning the players to really justify it (like Guilford or Wash U this year).  It seems to me the Blue Streaks belonged somewhere in the poll heading in.

[Ralph Turner]

Thanks Titan Q,  +1!  

Your description of the JCU-Carthage game makes perfect sense.

[Titan Q]

Thanks Titan Q,  +1!  

Your description of the JCU-Carthage game makes perfect sense.

Ralph, you can bet the other 7 CCIW teams will be watching the Carthage/JCU video this week, trying to figure out if they have the personnel to try to apply full-court pressure vs the Red Men!  (Most really do not.)

[Titan Q]

Below is how my preseason ballot looked a month ago.  I ended up voting for 2 teams that I think I was very wrong on...

* UW-Whitewater - I watched the Warhawks last night vs Wheaton, and they really looked awful.  Maybe it was one bad game, but I just did not see a Top 25 team.

* Loras - 0-2 now, including a blowout loss @ Whitworth.  It was a flyer and I got burned.

I probably missed the boat on Whitworth...looks like they've reloaded.

I watched the Manchester/Wheaton game online and feel very good about MC as a Top 25 team...they are very balanced and deep.

I received the official D3hoops.com preseason ballot e-mail today.  I'm guessing we'll have a poll by mid-week.  

So with a final decision to make by Tuesday, I'm very comfortable with 21 teams and have 9 teams I'm looking at for spots 22-25...


21 Sure Things:

#1 UW-Stevens Point (29-4 overall, 12-4 WIAC/West) – 2009-10 national champion
Starters Returning: (4) F Louis Hurd, 6-5 SR (12.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg),G Jared Jenkins, 6-4 SR (11.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg), F Scott Hoelzel, 6-6 SR (8.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg), F Nick Krull, 6-7 SR (5.5 ppg, 3.6 rpg)

Starters Lost:  (1) PG Matt Moses, 6-2 (14.7 ppg, 4.3 rpg)

Top Returning Reserve: PG Jerel Harris, 5-10 SO (7.7 ppg, 1.8 rpg)

Potential Impact Transfer: G DeVon Jackson, 6-0, Williston State...F Jamie Mauch, 6-4, North Dakota College of Science (2 year starter)


#2 Eastern Mennonite (25-5 overall, 14-2 ODAC/South) – Elite 8, lost to Guilford
Starters Returning: (5) G/F Todd Phillips, 6-3 SR (17.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 3.1 rpg), G/F D.J. Hinson, 6-4 SR (15.9 ppg, 3.9 rpg), G George Johnson, 5-10 SR (15.0 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 3.2 apg), F Eli Crawford, 6-2 SR (12.2 ppg, 7.1 rpg), F Orie Pancione, 6-5 SR (7.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg)

Starters Lost: none

Top Returning Reserve: G/F Andrew Thorne, 6-4 SO (3.5 ppg, 2.0 rpg)


#3 Illinois Wesleyan (23-8 overall, 10-4 CCIW/Midwest) - Elite 8, lost to UW-Stevens Point
Starters Returning: (5) G Sean Johnson, 6-1 SR (17.0 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 3.1 apg), C Doug Sexauer, 6-7 SR (15.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg), F Jordan Zimmer, 6-5 JR (9.0 ppg, 3.6 rpg), PG Travis Rosenkranz, 6-0 SR (8.2 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 4.1 apg), F John Koschnitzky, 6-6 JR (5.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg)

Starters Lost: none

Top Returning Reserve: C Ryan Connolly (6.4 ppg, 2.7 rpg), 6-9 JR


#4 Carthage (24-6 overall, 12-2 CCIW/Midwest) - Sweet 16, lost to Illinois Wesleyan
Starters Returning: (4) PG Steve Djurickovic, 6-3 SR (24.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 7.3 apg), C Tyler Pierce, 6-5 SO (12.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg), G Max Cary, 6-3 JR (10.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg), F Mitch Thompson, 6-6 SO (6.1 ppg, 4.9 rpg),

Starters Lost: (1) G Cody Hilton, 5-11 (3.6 ppg, 1.7 rpg)

Top Returning Reserve:  G Malcom Kelly, 6-0 SO (7.6 ppg, 2.8 rpg)


#5 Randolph-Macon (26-7 overall, 11-5 ODAC/South) - Final 4, lost to UW-Stevens Point

Starters Returning: (5) F Brandon Braxton, 6-5 SR (11.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg), G Eric Pugh, 6-0 SR (10.6 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 3.2 apg), G/F Jordan Brown, 6-4 SR (10. 2 ppg, 3.4 rpg), G Calvin Croskey, 6-0 JR (8.5 ppg, 3.4 rpg), G/F Kevin Voelkel, 6-5 SR (2.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg)

Starters Lost: none

Top Returning Reserve: F Danny Jones, 6-6 SR (13.0 ppg, 4.8 rpg)


#6 Wooster (25-6 overall, 15-1 NCAC/Great Lakes) – Sweet 16, lost to Guilford

Starters Returning: (4) G Ian Franks, 6-4 SR (17.9 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 3.3 apg), G Nathan Balch, 6-1 SR (11.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg), F/C Bryan Wickliffe, 6-5 SR (11.2 ppg, 7.2 rpg), F Justin Hallowell, 6-7 JR (9.0 ppg, 5.8 rpg)

Starters Lost : (1) G Brandon Johnson, 6-2 (6.1 ppg, 2.4 rpg)

Top Returning Reserve: G Matt Fegan, 6-1 JR (6.2 ppg, 2.0 rpg)


#7 St. Norbert (23-4 overall, 14-2 MWC/Midwest) - Round of 32, lost to UW-Stevens Point
Starters Returning: (5) G Dave Wipperfurth, 6-2 SR (15.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg), C Chris Peterson, 6-5 SR (13.7 ppg, 5.4 rpg), G John Taylor, 6-0 SR (10.6 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 4.3 apg), F Steve Papke, 6-4 SR (7.0 ppg, 4.6 rpg), G/F Paul Mallers, 6-3 SR (5.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg)

Starters Lost: none

Top Returning Reserve: G Mike Brumm, 5-11 SO (4.6 ppg, 1.0 rpg)


#8 Franklin & Marshall (26-5 overall, 15-3 Centennial/Mid-Atlantic) – Elite 8, lost to Randolph-Macon
Starters Returning: (4) F James McNally, 6-6 SR (18.4 ppg, 8.5 rpg), G Georgio Milligan, 6-2 JR (13.0 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 4.9 apg), F Mike Baker, 6-6 SR (9.0 ppg, 6.7 rpg), G Justin Driver, 6-0 SR (2.5 ppg, 0.8 rpg)

Starters Lost: (1) G Anthony Brooks, 6-2 (12.4 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 3.4 apg)

Top Returning Reserve: G Steve Tolliver, 6-2 SR (6.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg)


#9 John Carroll (21-7 overall, 15-3 OAC/Great Lakes) - Round of 32, lost to Guilford
Starters Returning: (5) G Corey Shontz, 6-1 JR (14.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 4.0 apg), F/C Matt Crozier, 6-7 JR (12.6 ppg, 7.4 rpg), G Joey Meyer, 5-11 JR (8.3 ppg, 1.9 rpg), G Michael Hartnett, 6-2 JR (4.9 ppg, 1.4 rpg), F Patrick Sweeney, 6-2 JR (2.8 ppg, 2.3 rpg)

Starters Lost: none

Top Returning Reserve: F Maurice Haynes, 6-4 SR (8.6 ppg, 4.3 apg)


#10 Middlebury (25-4 overall, 8-1 NESCAC/Northeast) - Round of 32, lost to Rhode Island
Starters Returning: (4) F Ryan Sharry, 6-8 JR (13.7 ppg, 8.1 rpg), G Jake Wolfin, 6-2 SO (10.6 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 3.9 apg), G Nolan Thompson, 6-3 SO (10.2 ppg, 3.0 rpg), C Andrew Locke, 6-10 SR (9.1 ppg, 5.0 rpg)

Starters Lost: (1) G Tim Edwards, 6-4 (8.5 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 5.1 apg)

Top Returning Reserve: F Ryan Wholey, 6-4 SR (8.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg)


#11 Williams (30-2 overall, 9-0 NESCAC/Northeast) – lost in national championship game to UW-Stevens Point
Starters Returning: (2) G James Wang, 6-0 JR (17.3 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 4.4 apg), F Harlan Dodson, 6-8 SR (6.2 ppg, 2.3 rpg)

Starters Lost: (3) G/F Blake Schultz, 6-3 (19.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg), G Alex Rubin, 6-4 (9.5 ppg, 1.9 rpg), C Joe Geoghegan, 6-8 (7.1 ppg, 8.0 rpg)

Top Returning Reserve: C Troy Whittington, 6-5 SR (11.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg


#12 Anderson (23-6 overall, 13-3 HCAC/Midwest) - Round of 32, lost to Carthage
Starters Returning: (4) F Brock Morrison, 6-3 JR (14.4 ppg, 8.7 rpg), C Andrew Jones, 6-6 SR (13.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg), F Andrew Bowman, 6-7 SR (11.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg), G Gabe Miller, 6-3 SR (11.0 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 3.8 apg)

Starters Lost: (1) G Ty Riddle (14.8 ppg, 2.0 rpg) - was a junior last year...had one semester eligility left but decided to enter work world

Top Returning Reserve: G Phil Hogan, 5-11 SO (5.7 ppg, 2.0 rpg)


#13 Rhode Island (22-8 overall, 12-2 LEC/Northeast) - Sweet 16, lost to Brandeis
Starters Returning: (4) G Antone Gray, 5-9 SR (14.2 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 4.8 apg), G/F Mason Choice, 6-4 JR (13.0 ppg, 4.8 rpg), F/C Darius Debnam, 6-4 SR (7.2 ppg, 6.0 rpg), G Nick Manson, 6-0 SR (7.2 ppg, 2.2 rpg)

Starters Lost: (1) G Jake Grimes, 6-3 (14.9 ppg, 5.0 rpg)

Top Returning Reserve: F Carl Lee, 6-3 SR (9.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg)


#14 St. Mary's (26-4 overall, 14-2 CAC/Mid-Atlantic) – Sweet 16, lost to Franklin & Marshall
Starters Returning: (4) G Alex Franz, 6-1 SR (13.7 ppg, 5.2 rpg), C Sam Brown, 6-8 SR (9.9 ppg, 5.2 rpg), G James Davenport, 6-3 JR (6.6 ppg, 2.7 rpg), F Brian Grashof, 6-7 JR (6.0 ppg, 4.5 rpg)

Starters Lost: (1) G Camontae Griffin, 5-9 (21.6 ppg, 2.5 rpg)

Top Returning Reserve: G/F Mike Fitzpatrick, 6-6 SR (8.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg)


#15 Virginia Wesleyan (22-5 overall, 12-4 ODAC/South) - Round of 32, lost to St. Mary's
Starters Returning: (4) F Donald Vaughn, 6-5 JR (15.5 ppg, 8.0 ppg), F Chris Astorga, 6-5 SO (8.9 ppg, 4.9 rpg), G Ed Roberts, 5-10 JR (3.5 ppg, 1.9 rpg), F Trevor Watson, 6-4 JR (1.8 ppg, 1.4 rpg)

Starters Lost: (1) G Stephen Fields, 6-2 (21.0 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.2 apg)

Top Returning Reserve: F Quantrell Simmons, 6-6 SR (8.8 ppg, 4.8 rpg)


#16 Hope (21-8 overall, 11-3 MIAA/Great Lakes) – lost in 1st Round to St. Norbert
Starters Returning: (4) G Peter Bunn, 6-2 SR (16.0 ppg, 4.5 rpg), F Will Bowser, 6-5 SR (12.1 ppg, 5.8 rpg), F Andy Venema, 6-8 SR (9.4 ppg, 3.2 rpg), G David Krombeen, 6-3 JR (6.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 3.8 apg)

Starters Lost: (1) C Chris Nelis, 6-4 (12.4 ppg, 5.5 rpg)

Top Returning Reserve: F Nate Snuggerud, 6-5 SO (6.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg)


#17 MIT (22-5 overall, 10-2 NEWMAC/Northeast) – lost in 1st Round to DeSales
Starters Returning: (4) F Noel Hollingsworth, 6-9 JR (20.4 ppg, 9.0 rpg), G Mitchell Kates, 6-1 SO (13.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 4.1 apg), F Will Tashman, 6-8 SO (8.7 ppg, 7.2 rpg), G Eric Zuk, 6-5 SR (1.2 ppg, 2.0 rpg)

Starters Lost: (1) Billy Johnson (8.0 ppg, 3.5 rpg)

Top Returning Reserve: G Jimmy Burke, 5-11 SO (9.2 ppg, 1.3 rpg)


#18 WPI (20-7 overall, 7-5 NEWMAC/Northeast) – not in 2009-10 tournament
Starters Returning: (4) G Jeffrey Robinson, 6-1 SR (19.0 ppg, 3.5 rpg), G Kyle Nadeau, 5-8 SR (9.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 3.0 apg), F Ben Etten, 6-4 SR (9.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg), C Matt Carr, 6-7 JR (5.9 ppg, 4.1 rpg)

Starters Lost: (1) C Bennett Lessard, 6-8 (3.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg)

Top Returning Reserve: F Fernando Perez, 6-3 JR (11.1 ppg, 7.0 rpg)


#19 Plattsburgh State (21-8 overall, 13-5 SUNYAC/East) – lost in 1st Round to SUNYIT
Starters Returning: (4) G Chris Ruiz, 6-4 SR (17.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg), G Steve Thomas, 6-4 SR (17.1 ppg, 6.6 rpg), F Errol Daniyan, 6-6 SR (15.2 ppg, 8.3 rpg), G Carl Munnerlyn, 5-9 SR (11.5 ppg, 2.3 rpg)

Starters Lost: (1) F Farris Thomas, 6-5 (4.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg)

Top Returning ReserveL F RJ Ponesse, 6-10 SR (3.6 ppg, 2.3 rpg)


#20 Manchester (17-10 overall, 10-6 HCAC/Midwest) – not in 2009-10 tournament
Starters Returning: (5) G Mitch Schaefer, 6-4 SR (11.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg), G/F Tyler Henn, 6-5 SR (9.9 ppg, 5.0 rpg), G Jordan Moss, 6-4 JR (9.1 ppg, 4.1 rpg), G Nathan Ferch, 6-3 SR (8.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg), C Jason Spindler, 6-10 JR (7.4 ppg, 4.1 rpg)

Starters Lost: none

Top Returning Reserve: G Tyler Delauder, 6-1 SR (8.0 ppg, 2.4 rpg)


#21 Augustana (16-10 overall, 9-5 CCIW/Midwest) – not in 2009-10 tournament
Starters Returning: (4) F Kyle Nelson, 6-9 SR (14.7 ppg, 7.7 rpg), PG Brian DeSimone, 6-1 JR (6.7 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 3.3 apg), G Troy Rorer, 6-2 JR (6.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg), F Brandon Kunz, 6-7 SO (4.7 ppg, 3.3 rpg)

Starters Lost: (1) G Matt Pelton, 6-3 (12.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg)

Top Returning Reserve: F Chris Anderson, 6-4 JR (7.0 ppg, 1.6 rpg)


9 Teams for 4 Spots:


Amherst (14-11 overall, 3-6 NESCAC) – Northeast
Starters Returning: (4) G Conor Meehan, 6-4 SR (14.2 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 6.2 apg), F Jeff Holmes, 6-7 JR (9.8 ppg, 6.2 rpg), G Taylor Barisse, 6-5 JR (8.2 ppg, 4.4 rpg), G/F David Waller, 6-6 JR (7.8 ppg, 4.6 rpg)

Starters Lost: (1) G/F Steven Wheeler, 6-6 (14.7 ppg, 2.0 rpg)

Top Returning Reserve: G Willy Workman, 6-6 SO (6.2 ppg, 4.0 rpg)


Buena Vista (15-12 overall, 10-6 IIAC) – West - not in 2009-10 tournament
Starters Returning: (3) G Troy Ticknor, 6-1 SO (12.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg), F/C Doug Bissen, 6-7 JR (11.7 ppg, 6.4 rpg), F Wes Nordquist, 6-7 SO (11.4 ppg, 6.6 rpg)

Starters Lost: (2) G/F Nathan Parker, 6-4 (10.7 ppg, 4.3 rpg), G Kevin Osborn, 6-0 (3.7 ppg, 3.1 rpg)

Top Returning Reserve: G Jeff Janssen, 6-4 JR (8.9 ppg, 1.8 rpg)


Carleton (19-10 overall, 12-8 MIAC/West) – lost in 1st Round 1 to UW-Stevens Point by 1
Starters Returning: (4) G Jeremy Sutherland, 6-4 SR (14.6 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 3.6 apg), F Seth Jonker, 6-6 SO (4.7 ppg, 1.8 rpg), G/F Carter Biewen, 6-4 SR (7.7 ppg, 3.3 rpg), G Blaise Davis, 6-1 JR (7.0 ppg, 1.0 rpg)

Starters Lost: (1) F Bryan Rosett, 6-6 (11.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg)

Top Returning Reserve: F Scott Theisen, 6-6 SO (4.7 ppg, 1.8 rpg)


Centre (18-9 overall, 11-5 SCAC/South) – lost in 1st Round to Eastern Mennonite
Starters Returning: (4) G Jeff Mullany, 6-2 JR (13.6 ppg, 3.5 rpg), G Bryon Ellis, 5-10 SO (8.8 ppg, 2.2 rpg), F Josh Crawford, 6-5 SO (8.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg), C Alex Lloyd, 6-8 SR (7.3 ppg, 9.7 rpg)

Starters Lost: (1) F Danny Noll, 6-6 (14.0 ppg, 7.6 rpg)

Top Returning Reserve: G Dee Smith, 5-6 SR (3.1 ppg, 0.7 rpg)


Gettysburg (15-11 overall, 12-6 Centennial/Mid-Atlantic) - not in 2009-10 tournament
Starters Returning: (4) C Andrew Powers, 6-6 SR (19.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg), F Kevin Kennedy, 6-5 SR (11.8 ppg, 4.7 rpg), G/F Alex Zurn, 6-4 SO (11.7 ppg, 4.1 rpg), F Tim Lang, 6-7 JR (2.1 ppg, 1.4 rpg)

Starters Lost: (1) G Brendan Hagar, 6-1 (5.2 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 5.5 apg)

Top Returning Reserve: G Brendan Trelease, 6-3 JR (7.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg)


Loras (15-11 overall, 10-6 IIAC/West) – not in 2009-10 tournament
Starters Returning: (4) F Tim Kelly, 6-4 JR (13.0 ppg, 4.5 rpg) G Mike Gleason, 6-2 SR (11.6 ppg, 2.2 rpg), G Connor Mooney, 5-10 SO (11.4 ppg, 1.3 rpg, 4.2 apg), F Jordan Harrelson, 6-4 JR (5.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg)

Starters Lost: (1) F Alex Brant (5.3 ppg, 5.4 rpg)

Top Returning Reserve: C Dan Pawelski, 6-9 JR (9.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg)


Ramapo (18-9 overall, 7-6 NJAC/Atlantic) – not in 2009-10 tournament
Starters Returning: (4) F/C LaQuan Peterkin, 6-6 JR (15.4 ppg, 7.8 rpg), G Anthony LoRusso, 6-1 JR (9.1 ppg, 1.6 rpg), G Garret Thiel, 6-2 JR (8.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg), F Davian Plunkett, 6-6 JR (8.3 ppg, 8.2 rpg)

Starters Lost: (1) G Andre Kenny, 6-3 (15.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 4.1 apg)

Top Returning Reserve: F Stephon Treadwell, 6-5 SO (4.6 ppg, 3.6 rpg)


St. Thomas (23-4 overall, 19-1 MIAC/West) - lost in 1st round to Anderson
Starters Returning: (3) G Tyler Nicolai, 5-11 SR (14.1 ppg, 2.0 rpg), G Alex Healy, 6-4 SR (12.7 ppg, 3.6 rpg), G Teddy Archer, 6-1 (5.0 ppg, 2.9 rpg)

Starters Lost: (2) G Joe Scott, 6-4 (10.8 ppg, 2.1 rpg), C Sam Eicher, 6-6 (4.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg)

Top Returning Reserve: C Tommy Hannon, 6-8 JR (5.3 ppg, 3.8 rpg)

Potential Impact Transfer: F Eric Clute, 6-5, Southwest Minnesota State


UW-Whitewater (23-6 overall, 13-3 WIAC/West) – Round of 32, lost to Wooster
Starters Returning: (2) G Phil Negri, 6-3 SR (8.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg), F Alex Edmunds, 6-4 JR (7.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg)

Starters Lost: (3) C Dustin Mitchell, 6-9 (18.0 ppg, 8.7 rpg), G Dupree Fletcher, 6-2 (14.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg), F Mike Bendall, 6-6 (10.2 ppg, 5.1 rpg)

Top Returning Reserve: G Nolan Free, 6-1 SO (6.4 ppg, 4.1 rpg) not returning

Potential Impact Transfer: F Chris Davis, 6-6, Madison Area Technical College (22 ppg, 6 rpg)...G Eric Bryson, 6-3, Winona State

[Titan Q]

"We didn't do a good enough job in the second half," said coach Bosko Djurickovic. "We made poor decisions after poor decisions handling the basketball. Against a good team, you're going to pay the price for that. It felt like we had 25 turnovers, even though it was only 12. John Carroll took us out of our rhythm, and we just didn't make enough baskets.  While we might have played the better 40 minutes, we didn't play well at the right times. There were just too many times that we threw the ball away instead of getting a good look. We have things to work on—we're far from a finished product. I enjoyed playing this team, if not the result. John Carroll is a very good team."

http://athletics.carthage.edu/news/2010/11/20/Mens_Basketball_1120100514.aspx


Very intriguing matchup in Honolulu this Wednesday, by the way - Carthage vs Whitworth.

[Pat Coleman]

Reputation votes usually don't turn out so good!

But not always. This one puzzles me.

#18 John Carroll 70
#5 Carthage 69

(at Carthage)

I listened to the Carthage/John Carroll game and was really surprised Carthage lost.  Carthage led by 12 at the half and it seemed like the Red Men would run away with it.  But in the 2nd, the Streak's full-court pressure gave CC a lot of trouble.  

Carthage is a tremendous halfcourt team.  PG Steve Djurickovic is just so dangerous with the ball in his hand, where he can penetrate and score or dish, or make jumpshots from anywhere on the floor.  But if you can make other Carthage players handle the ball, and speed up the tempo, you change that dynamic.  You take away Carthage's strength and make them play a style they are not that comfortable with.  Now, not every team has the personnel to play that way vs the Red Men...Carthage would beat Grinnell by 50 probably.  But John Carroll has the athletes to apply full-court pressure effectively at a high-level in D3.

This game definitely qualified as an "upset" to me, but I don't think John Carroll's preseason votes can be called "reputation votes", Pat (I think that is what you're saying?)...

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John Carroll (21-7 overall, 15-3 OAC/Great Lakes) - Round of 32, lost to Guilford[/b][/u]
Starters Returning: (5) G Corey Shontz, 6-1 JR (14.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 4.0 apg), F/C Matt Crozier, 6-7 JR (12.6 ppg, 7.4 rpg), G Joey Meyer, 5-11 JR (8.3 ppg, 1.9 rpg), G Michael Hartnett, 6-2 JR (4.9 ppg, 1.4 rpg), F Patrick Sweeney, 6-2 JR (2.8 ppg, 2.3 rpg)

Starters Lost: none

Top Returning Reserve: F Maurice Haynes, 6-4 SR (8.6 ppg, 4.3 apg)
----------

Here is the Carthage/JCU box:

http://www.jcusports.com/custompages/mbball/2011/jcmb1103.htm

The Blue Streaks have a bunch back from 21-win team that came within 3 points of knocking off Guilford in Greensboro last year in the tournament.

I think "reputation votes" are when a perennially strong program gets preseason votes without returning the players to really justify it (like Guilford or Wash U this year).  It seems to me the Blue Streaks belonged somewhere in the poll heading in.

Perhaps JCU filled out our preseason poll info form wrong but I saw 36% of their scoring returning. (After I fixed their typo that made it 17%!) Four of the first five return, yes, but with JCU's platoon system the second five is just as important and clearly there were more losses there.

Or we were just misinformed.

[Titan Q]

Perhaps JCU filled out our preseason poll info form wrong but I saw 36% of their scoring returning. (After I fixed their typo that made it 17%!) Four of the first five return, yes, but with JCU's platoon system the second five is just as important and clearly there were more losses there.

Or we were just misinformed.

Looks like vs Carthage they did not really play their typical platoon style...

http://www.jcusports.com/custompages/mbball/2011/jcmb1103.htm

See the minutes played.

In terms of new starters, their top returning reserve from '09-10, Maurice Haynes, had 23 & 10.  6-6 F Conor Tilow (14 pts) is a transfer from NCAA D2 Seton Hill.

Here is the JCU season preview from their site...

http://www.jcusports.com/news/2010/11/14/MBB_1114105224.aspx

[ScotsFan]

I'd say Pat's prediction of wondering how JCU would replace the depth they lost is quite warranted.  They may have been returning all of their starters but there were big questions about how they could still run their patented platoon style with the number of 'reserves' lost.

Well, I guess that answer was answered last night as, based on the minutes played by the starters, it looks like JCU won't be implementing the platoon system.  In fact, it looks as if JCU doesn't have much of a bench at all!  Three players logged 35 minutes in last night's game? 

Last year the Blue Streaks had 10 players averaging between around 15 minutes to just over 20 minutes per game.  In three games this season, JCU has 4 players averaging 25+ minutes per game.  Quite a contrast. 

My take on JCU is I'm wondering if their lack of depth will eventually catch up with them as the season wears on.  I mean, having 3 starters logging as many minutes as they have been through 3 games will more than likely catch up with them at some point.  Especially considering how grueling the OAC is. 

It was a nice upset for JCU last night, but I have to wonder if this is a team that can keep this up for an entire season? 

[KnightSlappy]

I'd say Pat's prediction of wondering how JCU would replace the depth they lost is quite warranted.  They may have been returning all of their starters but there were big questions about how they could still run their patented platoon style with the number of 'reserves' lost.

Well, I guess that answer was answered last night as, based on the minutes played by the starters, it looks like JCU won't be implementing the platoon system.  In fact, it looks as if JCU doesn't have much of a bench at all!  Three players logged 35 minutes in last night's game? 

Last year the Blue Streaks had 10 players averaging between around 15 minutes to just over 20 minutes per game.  In three games this season, JCU has 4 players averaging 25+ minutes per game.  Quite a contrast. 

My take on JCU is I'm wondering if their lack of depth will eventually catch up with them as the season wears on.  I mean, having 3 starters logging as many minutes as they have been through 3 games will more than likely catch up with them at some point.  Especially considering how grueling the OAC is. 

It was a nice upset for JCU last night, but I have to wonder if this is a team that can keep this up for an entire season? 

Just thinking about the NCAA tournament too. Could they put out this type of effort against t a team like Hope, and then do it again the very next night against someone like Wooster? I know these kids are young, but "even youths grow tired and weary".

[David Collinge]

I'm not sure that voting on "reputation" is such a bad thing at the D3 level.  For one thing, we have comparatively little hard information to go on in the preseason.  On top of that, I think that, at least at the highest level, coaching is more important in D3 than at any other collegiate level.  If a school has one of the elite coaches, they're going to prosper even if there's a nearly complete turnover in athletes.  (Of course, if a school has a truly elite coach, that doesn't happen, as recruiting and playing time tend to be more balanced out among the classes.)  Such a team may struggle in November, trying to put the pieces together, but almost always will be winning in February and a threat in March.  Maybe I'm spoiled by getting to follow Wooster, where Steve Moore is at or near the top of the list of such elite coaches, and where the cliche "reloading not rebuilding" is a truism, but I think Moore is far from alone in this regard.  For example, I'm not terribly surprised that John Carroll is able to win right off the bat with what appears to be a fairly dramatic reduction in personnel and change in approach, and I'd be very surprised to find Washington U. outside the poll in February.

[wooscotsfan]

Looks like vs Carthage they did not really play their typical platoon style...
http://www.jcusports.com/custompages/mbball/2011/jcmb1103.htm

See the minutes played.

One reason JCU's press with fewer players may have worked is that Carthage played an even shorter bench!

Carthage's star player, Steve Djurickovic, played all 40 minutes and 4 of their 5 starters played 30 minutes or more in this game.  JCU's press has the effect of wearing teams down.

When your 6th man plays only 16 minutes and your 7th man plays only 7 minutes, it can be tough to beat a press team unless all your starters are in great shape.

[Ralph Turner]

Perhaps, early in the season, JCU did not use their up-tempo style, because the new players have not grown into the system.

I would expect the JCU starters to be able to play half-court very easily, this early in the season.

There is plenty of time for JCU to get its depth up to speed.

[Titan Q]

...and I'd be very surprised to find Washington U. outside the poll in February.

I think it depends on two things, David.

1) How many losses will the Bears rack up in these non-conference games...

* Nov. 22, @ Augustana
* Nov. 28, @ Hanover
* Dec. 4, vs Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
* Dec. 11, @ Wheaton
* Dec. 18, vs Illinois Wesleyan

and,

2) In what appears to be a down year in the UAA, is Wash U (picked as the favorite) truly better than everyone else, or is there some parity near the top?  In other words, will the Bears go, say, 12-2 or will they go 9-5?  


Wash U does appear to have some very serious questions right now in their rotation...depth maybe being the biggie.

[Titan Q]

I'm not sure that voting on "reputation" is such a bad thing at the D3 level.  

As long as that "reputation team" has the pieces in place to reload, I do not disagree, David.  Sometimes, though, the top programs do have to rebuild a little, as opposed to just reloading.  (Over the years, I have voted for a rebuilding Wooster or UW-Stevens Point-type team over an upstart flyer most of the time.)

Below is a post I made here about Wash U a month ago.  Wash U, the best program in Division III the last 5 years, definitely entered the 2010-11 with some really big question marks.  They just lost so much, and are asking so many guys who did not play last year to step into big spots.

I do think Wash U will be a lot better in February than they are now.  Interested to see how this plays out.

I looked in a little closer detail at Wash U's rotation at the end of last season.  The following data is from their final 3 games - a 64-60 win @ U. of Chicago, a 79-71 home win vs Westminster in NCAA Round 1, and a 75-70 home loss to IWU in NCAA Round 2.

The rotation was basically:
* = 2010-11 returnee

Starters (153 min)
PG – Sean Wallis, 34 min
SG – Aaron Thompson, 30 min
SF – Cameron Smith, 33 min
PF – Spencer Gay, 28 min*
C – Zach Kelly, 28 min

Bench (47 min)
PG Ross Kelley, 7 min
G/F Dylan Richter, 17 min*
F Caleb Knepper, 14 min*
F/C Alex Toth, 9 min*


From those 3 games, the 4 returnees accounted for...

- Minutes/game = 68 (34%)
- Points/game = 28.3 (40%)
- Rebounds/game = 12.3 (35%)
- Assists/game = 3.3 (18%)
- FGM/game = 10.7 (44%)
- 3-pt FGM/game = 2.7 (35%)


And projecting the 2010-11 rotation as best we can, just based on returnees who were in the rotation...

2010-11 Starters?
PG - ?? (no returning player played PG)
SG – Dylan Richter, 6-3 JR
SF – Caleb Knepper, 6-6 SR
PF – Spencer Gay, 6-6 SR
C – Alex Toth, 6-6 JR

2010-11 Bench?
(no players besides above were in 2009-10 rotation)


Thus my 3 big questions about Wash U heading into the year (as I posted yesterday), and the reason I struggle with them as a preseason Top 25 team:

1) Who is the PG?  (They have some talented young players, but none has varsity experience.)

2) Do they have enough 3-point shooters?  (Richter can play the 2 and can make a 3, but is certainly not "pure 3-point shooter"...more of an athletic slasher.  Knepper is definitely a 3-point shooter, but who else?)

3) What does the bench look like? (Again, lots of young talent to choose from, but no varsity experience.  While guards can develop quickly, post players usually have a longer development curve...do they have players ready to backup the 4 and 5 spots?)

[John Gleich]

I'd say Pat's prediction of wondering how JCU would replace the depth they lost is quite warranted.  They may have been returning all of their starters but there were big questions about how they could still run their patented platoon style with the number of 'reserves' lost.

Well, I guess that answer was answered last night as, based on the minutes played by the starters, it looks like JCU won't be implementing the platoon system.  In fact, it looks as if JCU doesn't have much of a bench at all!  Three players logged 35 minutes in last night's game? 

Last year the Blue Streaks had 10 players averaging between around 15 minutes to just over 20 minutes per game.  In three games this season, JCU has 4 players averaging 25+ minutes per game.  Quite a contrast. 

My take on JCU is I'm wondering if their lack of depth will eventually catch up with them as the season wears on.  I mean, having 3 starters logging as many minutes as they have been through 3 games will more than likely catch up with them at some point.  Especially considering how grueling the OAC is. 

It was a nice upset for JCU last night, but I have to wonder if this is a team that can keep this up for an entire season? 

I'm wondering, too, if there may just be a larger disparity between the first five and the second five.  If the second five can't sustain (either offensively or defensively), it wouldn't make sense for those guys to play equal minutes.