Top 25 talk

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared (Complete)

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	612	Middlebury	7-0	def. Johnson and Wales, 90-46; def. Skidmore, 64-59
#2	599	Amherst	8-1	def. Emmanuel, 100-76; def. Babson, 61-50; LOST at Brandeis, 61-76
#3	506	Virginia Wesleyan	6-1	def. Methodist, 94-62
#4	504	Augustana	7-1	def. Fontbonne, 72-50; def. #21 UW-Stevens Point, 69-64
#5	498	Wooster	5-2	LOST to #27 Wittenberg, 55-56; LOST at #25 Wabash, 58-72
#6	495	Whitworth	6-1	LOST to Montana Tech, 73-83
#7	452	MIT	11-0	def. Mass-Boston, 90-47; def. T#48 Salem State, 78-66; def. T#48 Tufts, 60-56
#8	428	Williams	8-1	def. Keene State, 103-74; def. Springfield, 68-57
#9	414	Emory	8-0	def. Oglethorpe, 60-54
#10	401	Marietta	6-1	def. Muskingum, 87-77; def. Otterbein, 77-69
#11	335	Franklin and Marshall	9-0	def. Gettysburg, 61-47; def. Haverford, 71-61
#12	329	Cabrini	7-0	def. Gwynedd-Mercy, 101-91; def. Baptist Bible, 83-49
#13	269	Mary Hardin-Baylor	6-0	def. Concordia (Texas), 99-92
#14	241	Buffalo State	6-1	def. Cortland State, 85-76; LOST to #31 Oswego State, 71-85
#15	230	WPI	8-1	def. Colby-Sawyer, 76-56; LOST at #26 Rhode Island College, 47-57; def. Fitchburg State, 100-80
#16	186	St. Thomas	7-1	def. Hamline, 94-77; def. Macalester, 86-64
#17	185	Wheaton (Ill.)	7-2	def. Westminster (Mo.), 64-49; LOST at #32 Washington U., 68-77
#18	167	Birmingham-Southern	7-0	def. Point, 92-80
#19	162	UW-Whitewater	8-0	def. UW-La Crosse, 60-45; def. UW-Eau Claire, 68-59
#20	160	Puget Sound	8-0	def. Evergreen St., 69-59
#21	117	UW-Stevens Point	6-2	def. UW-Oshkosh, 66-52; LOST at #4 Augustana, 64-69
#22	113	William Paterson	8-1	def. Hunter, 71-53; LOST to Manhattanville, 80-83
#23	106	Hope	8-1	def. Marian (Ind.), 76-60; def. Mt. Vernon Naz., 101-67
#24	103	Rochester	8-2	def. #53 Hamilton, 83-58; def. #30 Hobart, 72-62
#25	77	Wabash	8-0	def. Millikin, 58-43; def. #5 Wooster, 72-58

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#26	65	Rhode Island College	9-1	def. Salve Regina, 69-55; def. #15 WPI, 57-47; LOST at Eastern Connecticut, 59-70
#27	59	Wittenberg	4-2	def. #5 Wooster, 56-55; def. Allegheny, 65-54
#28	42	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	9-0	def. San Diego Christian, 71-69; def. Chapman, 57-45; def. Pt. Loma Nazarene, 65-49
#29	35	Edgewood	9-0	def. Lakeland, 86-68; def. Benedictine, 84-71
#30	34	Hobart	6-1	LOST to #24 Rochester, 62-72
#31	29	Oswego State	8-1	def. Brockport State, 80-65; def. Fredonia State, 76-71; def. #14 Buffalo State, 85-71
#32	21	Washington U.	7-2	def. Webster, 74-50; def. #17 Wheaton (Ill.), 77-68
#33	17	UW-River Falls	6-2	def. UW-Oshkosh, 105-99
#34	14	Transylvania	6-0	def. Earlham, 81-57; def. Manchester, 68-62
#35	13	St. Mary's (Md.)	7-2	def. York (Pa.), 71-69; def. Hood, 72-70
#36	12	Grinnell	8-0	def. Knox, 85-68; def. Carroll, 103-89
T#37	11	Baldwin-Wallace	5-2	def. Heidelberg, 90-69; LOST at Wilmington, 56-59
T#37	11	Western Connecticut	9-1	def. SUNY-Cobleskill, 65-43; def. Framingham State, 78-73; def. Southern Maine, 88-58
#39	10	New Jersey City	7-1	def. York (N.Y.), 76-70; LOST at Ithaca, 73-78; def. Penn St. Mont Alto, 77-48
#40	9	Texas-Dallas	6-1	IDLE
T#41	7	Bethany	8-0	def. Carnegie Mellon, 88-75; def. Thomas More, 89-74
T#41	7	Salisbury	6-3	LOST at Marymount, 57-64; def. Stevenson, 53-51
T#43	6	Ramapo	6-3	LOST at Medgar Evers, 88-93
T#43	6	UW-Superior	6-5	def. UW-Stout, 64-51; LOST at UW-La Crosse, 56-57
T#45	5	Hardin-Simmons	7-0	def. Centenary (La.), 85-75; def. East Texas Baptist, 95-65
T#45	5	Mary Washington	7-2	LOST at Apprentice School, 74-76; def. Marymount, 89-75
#47	4	Hartwick	9-0	def. Oneonta State, 57-51; def. Elms, 62-49
T#48	3	Ohio Wesleyan	8-1	def. Kenyon, 96-65; def. DePauw, 67-60
T#48	3	Randolph-Macon	6-3	def. Lynchburg, 90-87; LOST at Guilford, 53-66
T#48	3	Rose-Hulman	7-1	def. Manchester, 59-29; def. Bluffton, 66-55
T#48	3	Salem State	6-3	LOST at #7 MIT, 66-78
T#48	3	Tufts	6-3	LOST to Plymouth State, 73-79; LOST to #7 MIT, 56-60
#53	2	Hamilton	9-1	LOST at #24 Rochester, 58-83; def. Vassar, 96-71

[dahlby]

stagg44,
Agreed...CMS is well on their way to EARNING a "high" top 25 ratiing......with a balanced atttack! They should do well for themself in conference play, as they continue to improve with each game.

[scottiedawg]

I think Ohio Wesleyan and Wash U need to jump in...

http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Ohio_Wesleyan/men/2011-12/index

http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Washington_U./men/2011-12/index


And I think Hope needs to be way higher - I think there is a good chance Hope is a Top 10 team.

Hope's next game is Dec 29 against Marietta with Trevor Halter back in the lineup for the Pioneers, so we'll find out then.

2 6'6 Seniors lead Marietta. Great barometer for Hope.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

I think Ohio Wesleyan and Wash U need to jump in...

http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Ohio_Wesleyan/men/2011-12/index

http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Washington_U./men/2011-12/index


And I think Hope needs to be way higher - I think there is a good chance Hope is a Top 10 team.

Hope's next game is Dec 29 against Marietta with Trevor Halter back in the lineup for the Pioneers, so we'll find out then.

2 6'6 Seniors lead Marietta. Great barometer for Hope.

Scariest game on the schedule for Hope (I believe).  Facing a good team with their AA back, after a really long lay-off (19 days between games). 

[scottiedawg]

I think Ohio Wesleyan and Wash U need to jump in...

http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Ohio_Wesleyan/men/2011-12/index

http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Washington_U./men/2011-12/index


And I think Hope needs to be way higher - I think there is a good chance Hope is a Top 10 team.

Hope's next game is Dec 29 against Marietta with Trevor Halter back in the lineup for the Pioneers, so we'll find out then.

2 6'6 Seniors lead Marietta. Great barometer for Hope.

Scariest game on the schedule for Hope (I believe).  Facing a good team with their AA back, after a really long lay-off (19 days between games).

Three games for Marietta before 12/29. I sure hope they're 9-1 and maybe a top 7 or 6 team going into that matchup. Give Hope some real motivation.

[sac]

Three games for Marietta before 12/29. I sure hope they're 9-1 and maybe a top 7 or 6 team going into that matchup. Give Hope some real motivation.

One of those games is vs Ohio, I'm sure they'll drop that one.

The Hope/Marietta game might be the only matchup this year of D3's that played real games vs a MAC opponent.

[jaybird44]

Wow...looking at the new Top 25 poll.  I guess beating #1 and #17 in the span of a week doesn't buy what it used to. 

[magicman]

Wow...looking at the new Top 25 poll.  I guess beating #1 and #17 in the span of a week doesn't buy what it used to.

Actually Jaybird, they didn't beat those 2 teams in the span of a week, it was an 8 day period. Washington U already received credit for the victory over Augie in last week's poll when they moved up from 46th place and 6 points to the 32nd spot and 21 pts. That victory over Augie improved their record to 5-2 at the time and they were right about where they should be for a team with 2 losses so early in the season. This week the pollsters have again rewarded the Bears by moving them up to the 27th spot and nearly tripled their point total from 21 to 60, after beating Wheaton.

You needn't worry. If the Bears keep winning, the voters will reward them accordingly. After all, it's not like they're from a conference that lacks respect. With 2 other UAA  teams already in the Top 25 rankings, the Bears will have ample opportunity to move up the ladder once conference play begins.

 

       

[Dark Knight]

I think Ohio Wesleyan and Wash U need to jump in...

http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Ohio_Wesleyan/men/2011-12/index

http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Washington_U./men/2011-12/index


And I think Hope needs to be way higher - I think there is a good chance Hope is a Top 10 team.

Hope's next game is Dec 29 against Marietta with Trevor Halter back in the lineup for the Pioneers, so we'll find out then.

2 6'6 Seniors lead Marietta. Great barometer for Hope.

Scariest game on the schedule for Hope (I believe).  Facing a good team with their AA back, after a really long lay-off (19 days between games).

Three games for Marietta before 12/29. I sure hope they're 9-1 and maybe a top 7 or 6 team going into that matchup. Give Hope some real motivation.

According to Massey, Hope is underrated and Marietta is overrated. Massey says Hope by 12.

[thebear]

Not sure why Hope isn't getting more recognition, their only loss is to a D-I MAC school (W.Mich)
They've played the toughest D-III schedule in the country.  Most of their opponents so far are in the top 100.

Amherst meanwhile, loses to a mediocre Brandeis club, and still stays in the top 10. 

I think Middlebury, MIT, Williams Emory & Marietta have feasted on a steady diet of early season cupcakes (Since this is Syracuse country, we KNOW about cupcakes), and are overrated.

I also think that Ohio Wesleyan, playing in a very deep conference, may be the best Wesleyan, not sure why Va. Wesleyan  is in the #2 spot after a loss to Salisbury, and not the best early schedule.

Food for thought.

[ChicagoHopeNut]

Not sure why Hope isn't getting more recognition, their only loss is to a D-I MAC school (W.Mich)
They've played the toughest D-III schedule in the country.  Most of their opponents so far are in the top 100.

My thoughts:

1) Pre-season expectations for Hope were low (outside Top 25) and there are plenty of 1 loss and undefeated teams to stay in front of them.

2) Hope has played 9 games but a whopping, grand total of 2 of those games were against D3 opponents. Of course, there is talent and challenges from a lot of these NAIA games and W. Michigan but I wouldn't be surprised if some votes subconsciously discounted a team that has only played 2 games against it's own division. I'm a huge Hope fan and I find that stat astounding.

[Titan Q]

For those who have not seen this yet, here is a new computer poll - D3 Basketball Index - created by poster augie_superfan...

https://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/


You will see this has Hope #1.

[Hugenerd]

For those who have not seen this yet, here is a new computer poll - D3 Basketball Index - created by poster augie_superfan...

https://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/


You will see this has Hope #1.

I'm sure augie superfan himself would agree that with a sample size of 2, the statistical meaning of that ranking is not very high. They are being rewarded because they haven't really played any bad d3 teams (Wheaton only had 1 other d3 loss, and Carthage only has 2). Those rankings don't take into account non-d3 games. What if we ranked every team based on their top 2 d3 results? Probably wouldn't mean a whole lot, right?  Hope's computer ranking won't mean more until they have more d3 games. I'm sure some voters are being cautious for this very reason.

You see some other manifestations of this low sample size phenomenon with other teams also, like 1-2 Lewis and Clark at #22 and 1-1 George Fox at #29. If those teams were undefeated they would also likely be in the top 5 of the computer rankings, but would anyone really be arguing for them to be ranked higher in the human poll? Probably not.

Further, Hope's rating is really being pumped up by the 30 point win vs. Carthage. Because they have only played two games, and won both, the computer model is trying to justify the final margins. In other words, and simplified for explanatory purposes, the model needs to account for the final spreads in Hope's games by assigning the team a proper rating. Since it doesn't have a lot of data to go on from Hope, based on the other results from Carthage and IWU, the rating for Carthage is about 7 and for IWU is about 20. Therefore, to reconcile their margins of victory, Hope's rating must be about 30 (the difference in the teams ratings is the expected final margin). If Hope had only beaten Carriage by single-figures, I would expect their ranking to fall to the teens, which goes to show how shaky their current ranking in the computer poll is.

[David Collinge]

I also think that Ohio Wesleyan, playing in a very deep conference, may be the best Wesleyan[...]
Food for thought.

emphasis added

Wow, I must have been asleep a long time. What planet is this?

[smedindy]

It's the new NCAC with five teams that can win it.

Plus people are buying what I'm selling about other teams. Yeah, that's it!

Seriously, the NCAC is getting deeper. We also removed someone that held the league down, too.