Top 25 talk

[Titan Q]

Here is the IWU/Wheaton OT game from tonight (go to "On Demand") for any that want to assess these two teams.


http://client.stretchinternet.com/client/iwu.portal#

* Game starts at about 8:30 mark on the player
* 2nd half at 57:00
* OT at 1:51:00


Wheaton's Tim McCrary (preseason 1st Team All-American) and Aaron Garriott (D1 transfer) and IWU's Jordan Zimmer (21.3 ppg last 6 games) are outstanding players...and both teams have plenty of supporting cast around these guys.

I don't think these are Top 15 teams, but pretty sure they're Top 25. 

[augie_superfan]

I don't know... there are a TON of teams that could slot into 15-25... if not 10-25... makes it hard to put two from the same conference (CCIW) along with Augustana in there.

I am going to have to seriously reassess my poll this week... too many teams to consider.

As hard as it is for me to say, I'm not sure that Augustana is the best of the bunch.  Their win tonight at Millikin left a lot to be desired.  With their starting center leaving the team, it's hard to say how they'll play once they get some tougher games. 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Titan - I hear ya... you know I take this seriously... but there are so many teams that could fit into the 15-25 slot right now. I saw a few pretty good teams in Vegas... I have been watching a few online (I will watch yours tomorrow - have to get to bed - Hoopsville tomorrow night!)... it is just so difficult... I think I am considering up to 35 teams a week for 25 slots.

[Gregory Sager]

Titan - I hear ya... you know I take this seriously... but there are so many teams that could fit into the 15-25 slot right now. I saw a few pretty good teams in Vegas... I have been watching a few online (I will watch yours tomorrow - have to get to bed - Hoopsville tomorrow night!)... it is just so difficult... I think I am considering up to 35 teams a week for 25 slots.

It's your call, D-Mac, but if you don't want to put either Wheaton or Illinois Wesleyan in your Top 25, this is one CCIW fan who's got your back. For that matter, if you'd like to mark Augie down a bit as well, I'll support that, too.

Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan are pretty good teams, but they're on the outer margins of the Top 25, at best. The long and short of it is that the CCIW is really down this year, and I'd hate to see any of its teams get promoted on the basis of a league reputation that really isn't deserved this season.

(And now that I've exposed myself as the CCIW's version of Benedict Arnold, I'll just crawl back under my rock. )

[Titan Q]

Titan - I hear ya... you know I take this seriously... but there are so many teams that could fit into the 15-25 slot right now. I saw a few pretty good teams in Vegas... I have been watching a few online (I will watch yours tomorrow - have to get to bed - Hoopsville tomorrow night!)... it is just so difficult... I think I am considering up to 35 teams a week for 25 slots.

It's your call, D-Mac, but if you don't want to put either Wheaton or Illinois Wesleyan in your Top 25, this is one CCIW fan who's got your back. For that matter, if you'd like to mark Augie down a bit as well, I'll support that, too.

Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan are pretty good teams, but they're on the outer margins of the Top 25, at best. The long and short of it is that the CCIW is really down this year, and I'd hate to see any of its teams get promoted on the basis of a league reputation that really isn't deserved this season.

(And now that I've exposed myself as the CCIW's version of Benedict Arnold, I'll just crawl back under my rock. )

A couple thoughts Greg...

First, while I agree with you about the CCIW being down (I don't think anyone would question this), it is down because of what's going on with teams 4-8...not because of anything to do with teams 1-3.  Non-conference records:

Teams 1-3
Augustana, 10-1 (loss @ Wash U)
Illinois Wesleyan, 9-2 (losses @ Ripon, @ #10 UW-Whitewater)
Wheaton, 9-2 (losses vs #12 Hope, @ Wash U)


Teams 4-8
North Central 6-5
Elmhurst 6-5
Carthage 6-5
North Park 4-7
Millikin 1-10


You have always supported the position that conference "strength" is based on depth - not really the level of the best 2-3 teams.  We both agree that in 2011-12, the CCIW just does not have the depth it has most years.  A North Central team that shared the league title last year and was picked #2 in the preseason really struggled in the non-conference...Carthage, Elmhurst, and North Park have been marginal to bad...Matt Nadelhoffer inherited a Millikin basketball program that is in the gutter and will take years to fix.

But I'm not sure what the struggles with teams 4-8, and thus the CCIW's overall strength, has to do with the Top 25 resumes of the Augustana, Illinois Wesleyan, and Wheaton (which was the topic above you responded to).  Now, do I currently think Augustana is really the #3 team in Division III, especially after the departure of their 6-9 starting center?  No.  They look more to me like a #10-12 team.  And do I think Illinois Wesleyan and Wheaton are "Top 15 teams"?  Not really...but I do think they are Top 25 teams.  It's possible that the caliber of the CCIW's top 3 this year is not what it has been in some years (maybe, maybe not...we'll see), but when we're talking rankings, this is also all relative.  And right now, I see a lot of very even basketball teams.

For example, I don't really see separation between Hope and IWU/Wheaton (again, Hope beat Wheaton by 1 on a neutral floor), after watching both teams play on video.  Hope is now up to #12...and could end up sliding way up the poll if they roll through the MIAA.  I have also watched #13 UW-Stevens Point and #17 Wabash and see teams that are dead-even with IWU/Wheaton.  These are just a few examples.

Second, I don't think anyone is suggesting that Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan should get Top 25 consideration because of "league reputation."  I certainly didn't, and nowhere above do I read that from d-mac or anyone else.  I'm suggesting these are Top 25 teams because of 1) personnel (McCrary, Garriott, Zimmer, supporting casts, etc), 2) execution (for example, both are very strong defensively), and 3) overall body of work relative to the other candidates in the 20-25 range.  That is why I posted a link to the video of last night's IWU/Wheaton game -- so people can watch both teams and decide, based on what they see, if they're Top 25 or not.  The strengths and weaknesses of both teams are right there on display for people to evaluate.  As you would agree I'm sure, in these discussions, it is always very helpful to watch teams play when possible, as opposed to just talking about teams on paper. 

And regarding "league reputation", remember, Wheaton fell out of the Top 25 this year after a 1-point loss to Hope, and a loss at Wash U.  9-2 (now 10-2) Illinois Wesleyan has just 4 poll points in the Week 5 Top 25.  I don't think we have seen any sign of league reputation having an impact on the placement of CCIW teams in the 2011-12 D3hoops.com Top 25.  (If league reputation or even individual "name brand" was a factor for the voters, Wheaton may have stayed in the poll after those losses, and IWU might be getting more votes right now.)

So again, I agree that the CCIW is down.  But where Augustana, Illinois Wesleyan, and Wheaton fit in the Top 25 picture should really be a completely separate conversation.  These three teams shouldn't get the benefit of being from a league that has been traditionally strong, but they also shouldn't be penalized for the struggles of other teams in the CCIW this year. 

[Titan Q]

As far as where the computers but the CCIW's top 3...

Massey (through January 3)
6. Augustana
7. Illinois Wesleyan
8. Wheaton

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb&sub=11620


D3 Basketball Index (through Jan 3)
3. Augustana
4. Wheaton
11. Illinois Wesleyan

https://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/top-75

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared (So Far)

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	623	Middlebury	10-0	def. RPI, 123-111; 01/06 vs. Bates; 01/07 vs. Tufts
#2	571	Virginia Wesleyan	10-1	def. Hampden-Sydney, 100-80; 01/08 vs. Haverford
#3	563	Augustana	11-1	def. Millikin, 64-39; 01/07 vs. North Central (Ill.)
#4	537	MIT	13-0	def. Springfield, 67-59; 01/07 vs. Wheaton (Mass.)
#5	516	Emory	11-0	def. Piedmont, 95-78; 01/07 vs. #27 Rochester
#6	497	Amherst	10-1	01/06 vs. Wesleyan; 01/07 vs. Connecticut College
#7	493	Williams	11-1	def. Castleton State, 107-82; 01/06 vs. Tufts; 01/07 vs. Bates
#8	418	Franklin and Marshall	11-0	def. Misericordia, 68-55; def. Hobart, 81-71; 01/05 vs. Oneonta State; 01/07 at Swarthmore
#9	410	Mary Hardin-Baylor	10-0	01/05 at University of the Ozarks; 01/07 at #46 Texas-Dallas
#10	357	UW-Whitewater	12-1	def. #40 Edgewood, 79-51; 01/07 vs. UW-River Falls
#11	327	Whitworth	9-2	01/06 at Pacific Lutheran; 01/07 at #16 Puget Sound
#12	317	Hope	11-1	def. Alma, 103-78; 01/07 vs. Adrian
#13	305	UW-Stevens Point	10-3	LOST at UW-River Falls, 70-73; 01/07 vs. UW-Eau Claire
#14	275	Cabrini	10-1	def. York (Pa.), 83-66; 01/07 at Immaculata
#15	202	Wooster	10-2	def. Geneva, 100-48; 01/07 vs. Oberlin
#16	198	Puget Sound	10-1	01/06 vs. Whitman; 01/07 vs. #11 Whitworth
#17	197	Wabash	10-1	01/06 at Hiram; 01/07 at Allegheny
#18	175	St. Thomas	7-3	LOST at St. John's, 66-68; 01/07 vs. Augsburg
#19	151	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	11-0	def. Mount St. Mary, 74-55; 01/07 at Caltech
#20	148	Oswego State	9-2	LOST at Tex.-Pan American, 54-59
#21	120	Buffalo State	10-2	LOST at Buffalo, 59-111
#22	89	Birmingham-Southern	10-1	01/06 vs. Millsaps; 01/08 vs. Rhodes
#23	80	Wheaton (Ill.)	9-3	LOST at #45 Illinois Wesleyan, 77-87; 01/07 at Elmhurst
#24	75	Rhode Island College	9-1	01/05 at Wheaton (Mass.); 01/07 vs. Mass-Boston
#25	66	Transylvania	11-1	def. Franklin, 76-55; 01/07 at Defiance

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#26	61	WPI	10-2	def. Coast Guard, 64-53; 01/07 at Babson
#27	59	Rochester	9-2	def. Rochester Tech, 76-62; 01/07 at #5 Emory
#28	51	Western Connecticut	11-1	01/07 vs. Mass-Dartmouth
#29	43	William Paterson	10-2	LOST at Montclair State, 79-80; 01/07 vs. Richard Stockton
#30	22	Wittenberg	9-3	def. Huntingdon, 75-62; def. Maryville (Tenn.), 77-70; 01/07 at #33 Ohio Wesleyan
#31	21	Grinnell	8-0	01/05 at Beloit
#32	20	Marietta	8-4	01/07 vs. Heidelberg
#33	17	Ohio Wesleyan	11-1	def. Capital, 76-55; 01/07 vs. #30 Wittenberg
#34	16	Bethany	12-1	def. Washington and Jefferson, 79-60; 01/07 vs. Waynesburg
#35	13	Hardin-Simmons	9-1	01/05 at Louisiana College; 01/07 at Mississippi College
T#36	11	Hartwick	11-0	01/06 at Elmira; 01/07 at Alfred
T#36	11	St. Mary's (Md.)	10-3	def. Marymount, 81-63; 01/07 vs. Wesley
T#36	11	Washington U.	8-3	01/07 vs. Chicago
T#36	11	Catholic	11-1	01/06 at Moravian; 01/07 at Scranton
#40	10	Edgewood	10-2	LOST at #10 UW-Whitewater, 51-79; 01/07 at Milwaukee Engineering
T#41	8	Gustavus Adolphus	7-3	def. St. Mary's (Minn.), 62-45; 01/07 vs. UW-Stout
T#41	8	Lycoming	12-0	def. Penn State-Abington, 106-73; def. Mount Union, 91-75; 01/07 at King's
#43	7	New Jersey City	9-2	LOST at Ramapo, 74-78; 01/07 at Rutgers-Camden
#44	5	Lake Forest	8-1	def. St. Francis (IL), 76-51; 01/07 vs. Illinois College
#45	4	Illinois Wesleyan	10-2	def. #23 Wheaton (Ill.), 87-77; 01/07 at North Park
#46	3	Texas-Dallas	9-2	def. Austin, 67-62; 01/05 vs. Concordia (Texas); 01/07 vs. #9 Mary Hardin-Baylor
#47	2	Farmingdale State	7-3	01/07 at Mount St. Vincent
#48	1	Salem State	7-5	LOST at Endicott, 89-93; 01/07 at Westfield State

[augie_superfan]

As far as where the computers but the CCIW's top 3...

Massey (through January 3)
6. Augustana
7. Illinois Wesleyan
8. Wheaton

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cb&sub=11620


D3 Basketball Index (through Jan 3)
3. Augustana
4. Wheaton
11. Illinois Wesleyan

https://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/top-75

My system's rankings updated thru last night's games:

3.  Augustana
6.  Wheaton
8.  Illinois Wesleyan

Change up top with UW-Whitewater edging out Hope for # 1.

https://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/top-75

Out of curiosity, I also did a ranking with no margin of victory information so just who you played and if you won or lost with a slight advantage for winning on the road.  Here are the top 10 just for fun:

1. Hope
2. UW-Whitewater
3. Wabash
4. Whitworth
5. Ohio Wesleyan
6. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
7. Lycoming
8. Illinois Wesleyan
9. UW-River Falls
10. Lake Forest
.
.
16. Wheaton
17. Augustana

*Only D3 games included so you'll have to make your personal adjustments for any non-D3 games.  OWU, Lycoming, and Lake Forest don't rank in the top 25 when including MOV.

[Pat Coleman]

New Top 25 is out.  One of Middlebury's #1 votes has evidently switched to MIT.  Interesting.

The computerized tabulation list probably has MID adjacent to MIT and the voter's finger just slipped to far down the list.

I don't think so. Millikin, Millsaps, Mississippi College are all in between alphabetically and that's just off the top of my head.

[stag44]

interesting to see Claremont-Mudd-Scripps ranked quite high in the computer polls (#3 in Massey and #5 in the D3 Index, as well as #10 in RPI calculated for regional rankings) but still lagging a bit in the D3hoops.com poll.

My guess is that they are an "unknown" team that has muddled along on the west coast and really never made any noise on a national level. Occidental had some national recognition with their Elite 8 run and were rewarded when they beat a top ranked Amherst in 05-06.

Regardless, very excited to see them in the top 25 and climbing!

[Pat Coleman]

I would say the human poll almost never mirrors the computer rankings. Massey in particular seems to suffer from WIAC-centric problems, where anyone who plays anyone from the WIAC, or plays someone who plays someone in the WIAC, is inflated. That happens to the point of multiple MIAC teams being highly ranked most years, even though the conference hadn't won a title.

[Gregory Sager]

Titan - I hear ya... you know I take this seriously... but there are so many teams that could fit into the 15-25 slot right now. I saw a few pretty good teams in Vegas... I have been watching a few online (I will watch yours tomorrow - have to get to bed - Hoopsville tomorrow night!)... it is just so difficult... I think I am considering up to 35 teams a week for 25 slots.

It's your call, D-Mac, but if you don't want to put either Wheaton or Illinois Wesleyan in your Top 25, this is one CCIW fan who's got your back. For that matter, if you'd like to mark Augie down a bit as well, I'll support that, too.

Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan are pretty good teams, but they're on the outer margins of the Top 25, at best. The long and short of it is that the CCIW is really down this year, and I'd hate to see any of its teams get promoted on the basis of a league reputation that really isn't deserved this season.

(And now that I've exposed myself as the CCIW's version of Benedict Arnold, I'll just crawl back under my rock. )

A couple thoughts Greg...

First, while I agree with you about the CCIW being down (I don't think anyone would question this), it is down because of what's going on with teams 4-8...not because of anything to do with teams 1-3.  Non-conference records:

Teams 1-3
Augustana, 10-1 (loss @ Wash U)
Illinois Wesleyan, 9-2 (losses @ Ripon, @ #10 UW-Whitewater)
Wheaton, 9-2 (losses vs #12 Hope, @ Wash U)


Teams 4-8
North Central 6-5
Elmhurst 6-5
Carthage 6-5
North Park 4-7
Millikin 1-10


You have always supported the position that conference "strength" is based on depth - not really the level of the best 2-3 teams.  We both agree that in 2011-12, the CCIW just does not have the depth it has most years.  A North Central team that shared the league title last year and was picked #2 in the preseason really struggled in the non-conference...Carthage, Elmhurst, and North Park have been marginal to bad...Matt Nadelhoffer inherited a Millikin basketball program that is in the gutter and will take years to fix.

But I'm not sure what the struggles with teams 4-8, and thus the CCIW's overall strength, has to do with the Top 25 resumes of the Augustana, Illinois Wesleyan, and Wheaton (which was the topic above you responded to).  Now, do I currently think Augustana is really the #3 team in Division III, especially after the departure of their 6-9 starting center?  No.  They look more to me like a #10-12 team.  And do I think Illinois Wesleyan and Wheaton are "Top 15 teams"?  Not really...but I do think they are Top 25 teams.  It's possible that the caliber of the CCIW's top 3 this year is not what it has been in some years (maybe, maybe not...we'll see), but when we're talking rankings, this is also all relative.  And right now, I see a lot of very even basketball teams.

For example, I don't really see separation between Hope and IWU/Wheaton (again, Hope beat Wheaton by 1 on a neutral floor), after watching both teams play on video.  Hope is now up to #12...and could end up sliding way up the poll if they roll through the MIAA.  I have also watched #13 UW-Stevens Point and #17 Wabash and see teams that are dead-even with IWU/Wheaton.  These are just a few examples.

Second, I don't think anyone is suggesting that Wheaton and Illinois Wesleyan should get Top 25 consideration because of "league reputation."  I certainly didn't, and nowhere above do I read that from d-mac or anyone else.  I'm suggesting these are Top 25 teams because of 1) personnel (McCrary, Garriott, Zimmer, supporting casts, etc), 2) execution (for example, both are very strong defensively), and 3) overall body of work relative to the other candidates in the 20-25 range.  That is why I posted a link to the video of last night's IWU/Wheaton game -- so people can watch both teams and decide, based on what they see, if they're Top 25 or not.  The strengths and weaknesses of both teams are right there on display for people to evaluate.  As you would agree I'm sure, in these discussions, it is always very helpful to watch teams play when possible, as opposed to just talking about teams on paper. 

And regarding "league reputation", remember, Wheaton fell out of the Top 25 this year after a 1-point loss to Hope, and a loss at Wash U.  9-2 (now 10-2) Illinois Wesleyan has just 4 poll points in the Week 5 Top 25.  I don't think we have seen any sign of league reputation having an impact on the placement of CCIW teams in the 2011-12 D3hoops.com Top 25.  (If league reputation or even individual "name brand" was a factor for the voters, Wheaton may have stayed in the poll after those losses, and IWU might be getting more votes right now.)

So again, I agree that the CCIW is down.  But where Augustana, Illinois Wesleyan, and Wheaton fit in the Top 25 picture should really be a completely separate conversation.  These three teams shouldn't get the benefit of being from a league that has been traditionally strong, but they also shouldn't be penalized for the struggles of other teams in the CCIW this year.

Wow, Bob. You were really riding the adrenaline of last night's IWU win when you started typing, weren't you?

From this point on, Augie, Wheaton, and IWU will all be playing CCIW teams exclusively. The pollsters will start moving those three teams up or down based upon how they do against their league brethren, so pointing out that the CCIW is down seems to me to be a fair caveat in terms of gauging those three teams.

I see Wheaton and IWU as being somewhere in the #20 to #25 range. You yourself said that they're somewhere in the #18 to #24 range. If you want to dispute the difference between the two of us on that matter, then I'd suggest that you're stealing my thunder as CCIW Chat's in-house picker of nits.

[smedindy]

Squibble alert!!

[John Gleich]

I would say the human poll almost never mirrors the computer rankings. Massey in particular seems to suffer from WIAC-centric problems, where anyone who plays anyone from the WIAC, or plays someone who plays someone in the WIAC, is inflated. That happens to the point of multiple MIAC teams being highly ranked most years, even though the conference hadn't won a title.

The fact that the MIAC plays so few non-con games exacerbates this... the WIAC has had the best winning percentage in the non-conference so the conference as a whole would be higher.

What I find interesting, though, is that, prior to the conference schedule, WIAC teams are still higher.  I'm not 100% sold that it's merely some sort of WIAC bias... I don't know everything that goes into the calculation, but Whitewater has been on top since Massey first published if I recall correctly.

[Hugenerd]

I would say the human poll almost never mirrors the computer rankings. Massey in particular seems to suffer from WIAC-centric problems, where anyone who plays anyone from the WIAC, or plays someone who plays someone in the WIAC, is inflated. That happens to the point of multiple MIAC teams being highly ranked most years, even though the conference hadn't won a title.

The fact that the MIAC plays so few non-con games exacerbates this... the WIAC has had the best winning percentage in the non-conference so the conference as a whole would be higher.

What I find interesting, though, is that, prior to the conference schedule, WIAC teams are still higher.  I'm not 100% sold that it's merely some sort of WIAC bias... I don't know everything that goes into the calculation, but Whitewater has been on top since Massey first published if I recall correctly.

Hope was #1 for a while on the Massey DIII rankings.