Top 25 talk

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

pjunito - MIT lost two points... that could be moving them down from 2 to 4 on a ballot... that's all.

And Hugenerd... I am just trying to give a point of view. For example, I moved MIT down my ballot a while back... when their play wasn't equating to where I had them ranked. They were winning... but not playing at the level I had them at... so I readjusted. But they weren't the only ones, my Top 15 was reevaluated that week... and another week I changed how I had my 15-25... I didn't blow up my ballot like I usually do... but it was close.

And voters can decide how to evaluate teams how they seem fit at any time. There are not set rules... and I wouldn't expect there to be other than do you due diligence and take it seriously.

[wooscotsfan]

I understand your explanation, and I am sure that is more true early in seasons when there are less games to go by, I just cant seeing it happening the last week of the regular season.  I know that people give MIT a hard time for their scheduling, but if they were really dropped a spot for beating WPI on the road this week, I would have lost some faith in the voters.  I know MIT gets knocked for their schedule, but its not as bad as people make it out to be. When the rankings come out tomorrow, you will see that their OWP will be in the 0.50's and their OOWP will be in the 0.53's, giving them an SOS somewhere in the 0.51-0.52 range, which will be essentially identical to a lot of other highly ranked teams (eg, Hope). I'm not trying to say voters don't look at the whole picture and dont have a right to reevaluate teams as they feel fit, just that in this case, at this late in the season, it didn't seem to be a very believable explanation.

Through most of tonight's results, I have MIT as having the #6 tournament resume in the country.

Amherst
Hope
Middlebury
Cabrini
Mary Hardin-Baylor
MIT

IMO, the overrated team on that Top 6 list is Cabrini!  They have played no strong teams all year and this is essentially the same team that Wooster waxed by 17 points in a Sweet 16 game last year in the NCAA tourney.  In fact, Cabrini graduated Dom Farrello who was a starter and top scorer for them last year.

The current Massey rating for Cabrini is only #16 and I think that rating may even be high.

Take a look at Cabrini's current roster and you will find that they have only 1 player that is 6'7".  They have NO post depth and that is why Wooster outrebounded them last year in the NCAA tourney game by a 39 to 20 margin.  If you have a quick guard that can stay in front of Corey Lemmons (Wooster did) and force him to take jump shots, they are very beatable.

I will be surprised if Cabrini makes it to the Elite Eight this year.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I understand your explanation, and I am sure that is more true early in seasons when there are less games to go by, I just cant seeing it happening the last week of the regular season.  I know that people give MIT a hard time for their scheduling, but if they were really dropped a spot for beating WPI on the road this week, I would have lost some faith in the voters.  I know MIT gets knocked for their schedule, but its not as bad as people make it out to be. When the rankings come out tomorrow, you will see that their OWP will be in the 0.50's and their OOWP will be in the 0.53's, giving them an SOS somewhere in the 0.51-0.52 range, which will be essentially identical to a lot of other highly ranked teams (eg, Hope). I'm not trying to say voters don't look at the whole picture and dont have a right to reevaluate teams as they feel fit, just that in this case, at this late in the season, it didn't seem to be a very believable explanation.

Through most of tonight's results, I have MIT as having the #6 tournament resume in the country.

Amherst
Hope
Middlebury
Cabrini
Mary Hardin-Baylor
MIT

IMO, the overrated team on that Top 6 list is Cabrini!  They have played no strong teams all year and this is essentially the same team that Wooster waxed by 17 points in a Sweet 16 game last year in the NCAA tourney.  In fact, Cabrini graduated Dom Farrello who was a starter and top scorer for them last year.

The current Massey rating for Cabrini is only #16 and I think that rating may even be high.

Take a look at Cabrini's current roster and you will find that they have only 1 player that is 6'7".  They have NO post depth and that is why Wooster outrebounded them last year in the NCAA tourney game by a 39 to 20 margin.  If you have a quick guard that can stay in front of Corey Lemmons (Wooster did) and force him to take jump shots, they are very beatable.

I will be surprised if Cabrini makes it to the Elite Eight this year.

It all depends on the bracket.

[KnightSlappy]

I understand your explanation, and I am sure that is more true early in seasons when there are less games to go by, I just cant seeing it happening the last week of the regular season.  I know that people give MIT a hard time for their scheduling, but if they were really dropped a spot for beating WPI on the road this week, I would have lost some faith in the voters.  I know MIT gets knocked for their schedule, but its not as bad as people make it out to be. When the rankings come out tomorrow, you will see that their OWP will be in the 0.50's and their OOWP will be in the 0.53's, giving them an SOS somewhere in the 0.51-0.52 range, which will be essentially identical to a lot of other highly ranked teams (eg, Hope). I'm not trying to say voters don't look at the whole picture and dont have a right to reevaluate teams as they feel fit, just that in this case, at this late in the season, it didn't seem to be a very believable explanation.

Through most of tonight's results, I have MIT as having the #6 tournament resume in the country.

Amherst
Hope
Middlebury
Cabrini
Mary Hardin-Baylor
MIT

IMO, the overrated team on that Top 6 list is Cabrini!  They have played no strong teams all year and this is essentially the same team that Wooster waxed by 17 points in a Sweet 16 game last year in the NCAA tourney.  In fact, Cabrini graduated Dom Farrello who was a starter and top scorer for them last year.

The current Massey rating for Cabrini is only #16 and I think that rating may even be high.

Take a look at Cabrini's current roster and you will find that they have only 1 player that is 6'7".  They have NO post depth and that is why Wooster outrebounded them last year in the NCAA tourney game by a 39 to 20 margin.  If you have a quick guard that can stay in front of Corey Lemmons (Wooster did) and force him to take jump shots, they are very beatable.

I will be surprised if Cabrini makes it to the Elite Eight this year.

I definitely would be the most skeptical about Cabrini too, but numbers is numbers. They're undefeated in-region and 3-0 versus regionally ranked teams.

[onetinsoldier]

I understand your explanation, and I am sure that is more true early in seasons when there are less games to go by, I just cant seeing it happening the last week of the regular season.  I know that people give MIT a hard time for their scheduling, but if they were really dropped a spot for beating WPI on the road this week, I would have lost some faith in the voters.  I know MIT gets knocked for their schedule, but its not as bad as people make it out to be. When the rankings come out tomorrow, you will see that their OWP will be in the 0.50's and their OOWP will be in the 0.53's, giving them an SOS somewhere in the 0.51-0.52 range, which will be essentially identical to a lot of other highly ranked teams (eg, Hope). I'm not trying to say voters don't look at the whole picture and dont have a right to reevaluate teams as they feel fit, just that in this case, at this late in the season, it didn't seem to be a very believable explanation.

Through most of tonight's results, I have MIT as having the #6 tournament resume in the country.

Amherst
Hope
Middlebury
Cabrini
Mary Hardin-Baylor
MIT

IMO, the overrated team on that Top 6 list is Cabrini!  They have played no strong teams all year and this is essentially the same team that Wooster waxed by 17 points in a Sweet 16 game last year in the NCAA tourney.  In fact, Cabrini graduated Dom Farrello who was a starter and top scorer for them last year.

The current Massey rating for Cabrini is only #16 and I think that rating may even be high.

Take a look at Cabrini's current roster and you will find that they have only 1 player that is 6'7".  They have NO post depth and that is why Wooster outrebounded them last year in the NCAA tourney game by a 39 to 20 margin.  If you have a quick guard that can stay in front of Corey Lemmons (Wooster did) and force him to take jump shots, they are very beatable.

I will be surprised if Cabrini makes it to the Elite Eight this year.

It all depends on the bracket.

I could not have said it better myself.  I would be surprised if Cabrini didnt make the elite 8, assuming a bracket that the top Mid atlantic seed would deserve.  I agree, they might not be on the same list the NE schools or a Va Wesleyan, but they probably wont have to play any of the those top tier teams before the elite 8.  And of course, they will probably host. 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

And let's not discount the play of Cory Lemons who is the team's leading scorer, rebounder, and assist man, and steals leader...

[Greek Tragedy]

I definitely would be the most skeptical about Cabrini too, but numbers is numbers. They're undefeated in-region and 3-0 versus regionally ranked teams.

Their in-region OWP is barely .500 (.504).  Their in-region results against ranked opponents are against Keystone (twice) and Widener, if I'm correct.  Keystone's in-region OWP is worse at .486 (and 0-2 vsRR),  Widener is legit with OWP at .585 and 4-4.

[Darryl Nester]

How They Fared (So Far)

Not many results, but perhaps useful to see what is coming this weekend.

Top 25

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#1	623	Hope	25-1	def. Calvin, 87-80; 02/25 vs. Adrian
#2	581	Amherst	23-2	02/25 vs. Bates
#3	549	MIT	23-1	02/25 vs. Babson
#4	530	Middlebury	23-2	02/25 vs. T#29 Wesleyan
#5	512	Mary Hardin-Baylor	24-1	02/24 vs. Mississippi College
#6	505	Cabrini	25-1	def. Immaculata, 87-68; 02/24 vs. Keystone
#7	469	Virginia Wesleyan	22-3	02/24 vs. Washington and Lee
#8	453	UW-Whitewater	22-3	02/24 vs. UW-La Crosse
#9	447	Birmingham-Southern	24-1	02/24 vs. University of Dallas
#10	410	Whitworth	22-3	02/23 vs. Lewis and Clark
#11	391	Claremont-Mudd-Scripps	23-2	LOST to Pomona-Pitzer, 50-51; 02/24 vs. Redlands
#12	331	Franklin and Marshall	23-2	02/24 vs. Washington College; 02/25 vs. TBD
#13	288	William Paterson	23-3	def. Kean, 72-56; 02/25 at Richard Stockton
#14	274	Oswego State	23-3	def. New Paltz State, 73-62; 02/24 vs. Brockport State
#15	208	Albertus Magnus	25-1	def. Emerson, 82-58; 02/23 vs. Lasell
#16	206	Transylvania	22-3	02/25 vs. TBA
#17	189	Wittenberg	21-5	def. Kenyon, 73-61; 02/24 vs. Denison
#18	186	Augustana	19-6	LOST at #22 Wheaton (Ill.), 44-74
#19	160	Wooster	22-4	def. DePauw, 59-51; 02/24 vs. #42 Ohio Wesleyan; 02/25 at TBA
#20	130	UW-Stevens Point	20-6	def. UW-Superior, 62-52; 02/24 at #34 UW-River Falls
#21	111	Hartwick	23-2	02/24 vs. Ithaca
#22	89	Wheaton (Ill.)	20-5	def. #18 Augustana, 74-44; 02/24 vs. T#29 Illinois Wesleyan
#23	57	Rhode Island College	21-5	def. Plymouth State, 79-48; 02/24 at #33 Western Connecticut
#24	56	Washington U.	18-6	02/25 at Chicago
#25	52	Bethany	23-3	def. Waynesburg, 82-69; 02/23 vs. Washington and Jefferson

Others receiving votes

Rank	Pts	Team	W-L	Results
#26	50	Emory	19-5	02/25 at Rochester
#27	34	North Central (Ill.)	18-7	IDLE
#28	31	Eastern Connecticut	20-5	02/24 vs. #36 Keene State
T#29	29	Illinois Wesleyan	19-6	02/24 at #22 Wheaton (Ill.)
T#29	29	Randolph-Macon	20-5	02/24 vs. Eastern Mennonite
T#29	29	Wesleyan	20-5	02/25 at #4 Middlebury
#32	26	Christopher Newport	21-4	02/24 vs. Methodist
#33	22	Western Connecticut	20-5	02/24 vs. #23 Rhode Island College
#34	21	UW-River Falls	18-7	02/24 vs. #20 UW-Stevens Point
#35	14	Lake Forest	20-3	02/24 vs. Carroll; 02/25 vs. TBD
#36	10	Keene State	19-7	def. Mass-Dartmouth, 75-64; 02/24 at #28 Eastern Connecticut
#37	8	New York University	19-5	02/25 at Brandeis
T#38	5	Gustavus Adolphus	19-6	IDLE
T#38	5	Hobart	22-4	def. Union, 73-53; 02/25 vs. Skidmore
#40	4	Worcester Polytech	18-6	02/25 vs. Springfield; 02/26 at TBD
#41	3	Wabash	18-8	LOST to Denison, 60-74
#42	2	Ohio Wesleyan	20-6	def. Hiram, 96-86; 02/24 at #19 Wooster
#43	1	Widener	18-8	LOST to Lycoming, 77-79

[augie77]

North Central hosts #18 Augustana in a CCIW tournament semi-final on Friday.

[Darryl Nester]

North Central hosts #18 Augustana in a CCIW tournament semi-final on Friday.

Thanks for pointing that out.  I should have prefaced that report by saying that it only includes games that have been added to the d3hoops.com schedule.  The Augie/NC game is not listed on either of their d3hoops.com pages:
North Central and Augustana

Others should feel free to chip in with similar corrections.

[Ralph Turner]

Wow!!! NYU goes from zero to 87 in one weekend.

Is it a "UAA road loss" for Emory or are the Violets that good?

The top dog in the UAA is almost always Top 25 material...

and the runner-up (a 11-3/20-5 or better record is almost always Top 25 calibre as well.)

NYU needs to go 11-3 for me to think that they are Top 25.  (Just my humble opinion...)

The Violets shrink in the last half of the season to go 9-5 in the UAA.

The weak non-conference schedule did not reflect the true NYU team early in the season.

[sac]

Wow!!! NYU goes from zero to 87 in one weekend.

Is it a "UAA road loss" for Emory or are the Violets that good?

The top dog in the UAA is almost always Top 25 material...

and the runner-up (a 11-3/20-5 or better record is almost always Top 25 calibre as well.)

NYU needs to go 11-3 for me to think that they are Top 25.  (Just my humble opinion...)

The Violets shrink in the last half of the season to go 9-5 in the UAA.

The weak non-conference schedule did not reflect the true NYU team early in the season.

NYU's losses were by 3, 2, 3, 9 and 6 

[Ralph Turner]

Wow!!! NYU goes from zero to 87 in one weekend.

Is it a "UAA road loss" for Emory or are the Violets that good?

The top dog in the UAA is almost always Top 25 material...

and the runner-up (a 11-3/20-5 or better record is almost always Top 25 calibre as well.)

NYU needs to go 11-3 for me to think that they are Top 25.  (Just my humble opinion...)

The Violets shrink in the last half of the season to go 9-5 in the UAA.

The weak non-conference schedule did not reflect the true NYU team early in the season.

NYU's losses were by 3, 2, 3, 9 and 6 

And if NYU had swept the series with WashU, then they would have earned the AQ at 10-4.

[wooscotsfan]

8 teams from the Top 25 eliminated in the first round of the NCAAs:

10. Mary Hardin-Baylor
11. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
12. William Paterson
13. Birmingham-Southern
17. UW River Falls
18. Transylvania
20. Bethany
25. Christopher Newport

A couple of these teams seemed overrated, IMO.  I never believed that Bethany or Birmingham-Southern even belonged in the Top 25 when their gaudy records came against weak competition and they had no real quality wins.

I think the Top 25 voters need to pay more attention to the SOS stat.  Bethany had a very weak SOS of 0.437 and Birmingham-Southern was not much better at 0.443.

[smedindy]

I don't think BSC was that overrated. You don't want to double penalize people for their schedule. They're relatively isolated and did their future conference mate Barry a favor by giving them two games.

It's not like they got blown out - they played a tough team AND spent time locked in the basement of a hotel.